Modeling climate change impacts on combined sewer overflow using synthetic precipitation time series

2013 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 160-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Bendel ◽  
Ferdinand Beck ◽  
Ulrich Dittmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Combined Sewer Overflows ◽  
Precipitation Time Series ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Combined Sewer ◽  
Synthetic Precipitation

In the presented study climate change impacts on combined sewer overflows (CSOs) in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Southern Germany, were assessed based on continuous long-term rainfall–runoff simulations. As input data, synthetic rainfall time series were used. The applied precipitation generator NiedSim-Klima accounts for climate change effects on precipitation patterns. Time series for the past (1961–1990) and future (2041–2050) were generated for various locations. Comparing the simulated CSO activity of both periods we observe significantly higher overflow frequencies for the future. Changes in overflow volume and overflow duration depend on the type of overflow structure. Both values will increase at simple CSO structures that merely divide the flow, whereas they will decrease when the CSO structure is combined with a storage tank. However, there is a wide variation between the results of different precipitation time series (representative for different locations).

Analysing urban floods and combined sewer overflows in a changing climate

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 260-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Nilsen ◽  
J. A. Lier ◽  
J. T. Bjerkholt ◽  
O. G. Lindholm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Combined Sewer Overflows ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Combined Sewer ◽  
Sewer Overflows ◽  
Precipitation Events

Climate change is expected to lead to an increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. For urban drainage, the primary adverse effects are more frequent and severe sewer overloading and flooding in urban areas, and higher discharges through combined sewer overflows (CSO). For assessing the possible effects of climate change, urban drainage models are run with climate-change-adjusted input data. However, current climate models are run on a spatial–temporal scale that is too coarse to resolve processes relevant to urban drainage modelling, in particular convective precipitation events. In the work reported here the delta-change method was used to develop a high-resolution time series of precipitation for the period 2071–2100 based on a recently produced climate model precipitation time series for Oslo. The present and future performance of the sewer networks was determined using MOUSE software. The simulations indicated future increases in annual CSO discharge of 33% when comparing years of maximum annual runoff. There is also an 83% increase in annual CSO discharge when comparing years of maximum annual precipitation. In addition, there are increases in the flooding of manholes and increased levels of backwater in pipes, which translates into more flooding of basements.

scholarly journals Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 345-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup ◽  
Stylianos Georgiadis ◽  
Ida Bülow Gregersen ◽  
Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Precipitation Time Series ◽  
Event Scale ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Urban water infrastructure has very long planning horizons, and planning is thus very dependent on reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change. Many urban water systems are designed using time series with a high temporal resolution. To assess the impact of climate change on these systems, similarly high-resolution precipitation time series for future climate are necessary. Climate models cannot at their current resolutions provide these time series at the relevant scales. Known methods for stochastic downscaling of climate change to urban hydrological scales have known shortcomings in constructing realistic climate-changed precipitation time series at the sub-hourly scale. In the present study we present a deterministic methodology to perturb historical precipitation time series at the minute scale to reflect non-linear expectations to climate change. The methodology shows good skill in meeting the expectations to climate change in extremes at the event scale when evaluated at different timescales from the minute to the daily scale. The methodology also shows good skill with respect to representing expected changes of seasonal precipitation. The methodology is very robust against the actual magnitude of the expected changes as well as the direction of the changes (increase or decrease), even for situations where the extremes are increasing for seasons that in general should have a decreasing trend in precipitation. The methodology can provide planners with valuable time series representing future climate that can be used as input to urban hydrological models and give better estimates of climate change impacts on these systems.

Assessment of long-term structural reliability considering climate change effects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Structural Resistance ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Available Information

<p>The assessment of climate change impacts is becoming increasingly relevant for many sciences and engineering disciplines. In this context, climate change may significantly affect the design of new structures and infrastructures as well as the long-term reliability of existing ones designed under the assumption of stationary climate.</p><p>A methodology for the assessment of climate change impact on long-term structural reliability is presented, based on the analysis of available information on past and future climate. The procedure relies on the factor of change approach and provide tools for the adaptation of climatic load maps and the evaluation of variations of failure probability and reliability index with time.</p><p>The proposed procedure will be illustrated for a relevant case study considering changes in climatic actions and different degradation conditions of structural resistance, which may also be affected by global warming.</p>

A case independent approach on the impact of climate change effects on combined sewer system performance

2009 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 1555-1564 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kleidorfer ◽  
M. Möderl ◽  
R. Sitzenfrei ◽  
C. Urich ◽  
W. Rauch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
System Structure ◽  
Drainage Systems ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Sewer Systems ◽  
Impervious Area ◽  
Combined Sewer ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
The Impact

Design and construction of urban drainage systems has to be done in a predictive way, as the average lifespan of such investments is several decades. The design engineer has to predict many influencing factors and scenarios for future development of a system (e.g. change in land use, population, water consumption and infiltration measures). Furthermore, climate change can cause increased rain intensities which leads to an additional impact on drainage systems. In this paper we compare the behaviour of different performance indicators of combined sewer systems when taking into account long-term environmental change effects (change in rainfall characteristics, change in impervious area and change in dry weather flow). By using 250 virtual case studies this approach is—in principle—a Monte Carlo Simulation in which not only parameter values are varied but the entire system structure and layout is changed in each run. Hence, results are more general and case-independent. For example the consideration of an increase of rainfall intensities by 20% has the same effect as an increase of impervious area of + 40%. Such an increase of rainfall intensities could be compensated by infiltration measures in current systems which lead to a reduction of impervious area by 30%.

scholarly journals A Transient Stochastic Rainfall Generator for Climate Changes Analysis at Hydrological Scales in Central Italy

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1292
Author(s):  
Davide Luciano De Luca ◽  
Andrea Petroselli ◽  
Luciano Galasso
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rainfall Series ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Climate Change Effects

In this work, a comprehensive methodology for trend investigation in rainfall time series, in a climate-change context, is proposed. The crucial role played by a Stochastic Rainfall Generator (SRG) is highlighted. Indeed, SRG application is particularly suitable to obtain rainfall series that are representative of future rainfall series at hydrological scales. Moreover, the methodology investigates the climate change effects on several timescales, considering the well-known Mann–Kendall test and analyzing the variation of probability distributions of extremes and hazard. The hypothesis is that the effects of climate changes could be more evident only for specific time resolutions, and only for some considered aspects. Applications regarded the rainfall time series of the Viterbo rain gauge in Central Italy.

scholarly journals Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup ◽  
Stylianos Georgiadis ◽  
Ida Bülow Gregersen ◽  
Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Precipitation Time Series ◽  
Event Scale ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Urban water infrastructure has very long planning horizons and planning is thus very dependent on reliable estimates on the impacts of climate change. Many urban water systems are designed using time series with a high temporal resolution. To assess the impact of climate change on these systems similarly high resolution precipitation time series for future climate are necessary. Climate models cannot at their current resolutions provide these time series at the relevant scales. Known methods for stochastic downscaling of climate change to urban hydrological scales have known shortcomings in constructing realistic climate changed precipitation time series at the sub-hourly scale. In the present study we present a deterministic methodology to perturb historical precipitation time series at minute scale to reflect non-linear expectations to climate change. The methodology shows good skill in meeting the expectations to climate change of extremes at event scale when evaluated at different timescales from the minute to the daily scale. The methodology also shows good skill with respect to representing expected changes to seasonal precipitation. The methodology is very robust to the actual magnitude of the expected changes as well as the direction of the changes (increase/decrease) even for situations where the extremes are increasing for seasons that in general should have a decreasing trend in precipitation. The methodology can provide planners with valuable time series representing future climate that can be used as input to urban hydrological models and give better estimates of climate change impacts on these systems.

Rainfall Time Series for Storm Overflow Assessment

1989 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 1789-1791 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Henderson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Combined Sewer Overflows ◽  
Combined Sewer ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Sewer Overflows

With increasing emphasis on the polluting effects of combined sewer overflows the engineer needs to be able to quantify the frequency, rates, volumes and durations of overflow discharge during day to day rainfall conditions. The performance of an existing combined sewer and its associated overflows may now be assessed using a simulation model of the system, together with recently developed rainfall time series representing a typical year of rainfall for a number of UK regions. This paper reviews potential applications of the series and describes the development and practical use of the series with the WASSP-SIM sewer flow model. A technique is outlined which allows assessment of pollutant loadings to waters receiving storm overflow discharges.

scholarly journals Application of a 1 km2 resolution model for climate change effects upon Benin and Nigeria vegetable agriculture

GEOMATICA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 73 (4) ◽  
pp. 93-106
Author(s):  
Colin Minielly ◽  
O. Clement Adebooye ◽  
P.B. Irenikatche Akponikpe ◽  
Durodoluwa J. Oyedele ◽  
Dirk de Boer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Field Trials ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Amaranthus Cruentus ◽  
Global Issues ◽  
Climate Change Effects

Climate change and food security are complex global issues that require multidisciplinary approaches to resolve. A nexus exists between both issues, especially in developing countries, but little prior research has successfully bridged the divide. Existing resolutions to climate change and food security are expensive and resource demanding. Climate modelling is at the forefront of climate change literature and development planning, whereas agronomy research is leading food security plans. The Benin Republic and Nigeria have grown and developed in recent years but may not have all the tools required to implement and sustain long-term food security in the face of climate change. The objective of this paper is to describe the development and outputs of a new model that bridges climate change and food security. Data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 5th Regional Assessment (IPCC AR5) were combined with a biodiversity database to develop the model to derive these outputs. The model was used to demonstrate what potential impacts climate change will have on the regional food security by incorporating agronomic data from four local underutilized indigenous vegetables (Amaranthus cruentus L., Solanum macrocarpon L., Telfairia occidentalis Hook f., and Ocimum gratissimum L.). The model shows that, by 2099, there is significant uncertainty within the optimal recommendations that originated from the MicroVeg project. This suggests that MicroVeg will not have long-term success for food security unless additional options (e.g., new field trials, shifts in vegetable grown) are considered, creating the need for need for more dissemination tools.

scholarly journals Maps, trends, and temperature sensitivities—phenological information from and for decreasing numbers of volunteer observers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Yuan ◽  
Stefan Härer ◽  
Tobias Ottenheym ◽  
Gourav Misra ◽  
Alissa Lüpke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Interpolation Accuracy ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Shiny App ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Autumn And Winter

AbstractPhenology serves as a major indicator of ongoing climate change. Long-term phenological observations are critically important for tracking and communicating these changes. The phenological observation network across Germany is operated by the National Meteorological Service with a major contribution from volunteering activities. However, the number of observers has strongly decreased for the last decades, possibly resulting in increasing uncertainties when extracting reliable phenological information from map interpolation. We studied uncertainties in interpolated maps from decreasing phenological records, by comparing long-term trends based on grid-based interpolated and station-wise observed time series, as well as their correlations with temperature. Interpolated maps in spring were characterized by the largest spatial variabilities across Bavaria, Germany, with respective lowest interpolated uncertainties. Long-term phenological trends for both interpolations and observations exhibited mean advances of −0.2 to −0.3 days year−1 for spring and summer, while late autumn and winter showed a delay of around 0.1 days year−1. Throughout the year, temperature sensitivities were consistently stronger for interpolated time series than observations. Such a better representation of regional phenology by interpolation was equally supported by satellite-derived phenological indices. Nevertheless, simulation of observer numbers indicated that a decline to less than 40% leads to a strong decrease in interpolation accuracy. To better understand the risk of declining phenological observations and to motivate volunteer observers, a Shiny app is proposed to visualize spatial and temporal phenological patterns across Bavaria and their links to climate change–induced temperature changes.

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

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