A Simple Scoring Model Predicting the Outcome of COVID-19 Patients: Tanta COVID score

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Elhendawy ◽  
Ferial El-Kalla ◽  
Sherief Abd-Elsalam ◽  
Dalia ElSharawy ◽  
Shaimaa S Soliman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Scoring System ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Discrimination Performance ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Severe Illness ◽  
Health Providers ◽  
Scoring Model ◽  
Increased Risk

Background & Aim: COVID-19 is a worldwide pandemic with high rates of morbidity and mortality, and an uncertain prognosis leading to an increased risk of infection in health providers and limited hospital care capacities. In this study, we have proposed a predictive, interpretable prognosis scoring system with the use of readily obtained clinical, radiological and laboratory characteristics to accurately predict worsening of the condition and overall survival of patients with COVID -19. Methods: This is a single-center, observational, prospective, cohort study. A total of 347 patients infected with COVID-19 presenting to the Tanta university hospital, Egypt, were enrolled in the study, and clinical, radiological and laboratory data were analyzed. Top-ranked variables were identified and selected to be integrated into a Cox regression model, building the scoring system for accurate prediction of the prognosis of patients with COVID-19. Results: The six variables that were finally selected in the scoring system were lymphopenia, serum CRP, ferritin, D-Dimer, radiological CT lung findings and associated chronic debilitating disease. The scoring system discriminated risk groups with either mild disease or severe illness characterized by respiratory distress (and also those with hypoxia and in need for oxygen therapy or mechanical ventilation) or death. The area under the curve to estimate the discrimination performance of the scoring system was more than 90%. Conclusion: We proposed a simple and clinically useful predictive scoring model for COVID-19 patients. However, additional independent validation will be required before the scoring model can be used commonly.

scholarly journals Clinical scoring system for the prediction of survival of patients with advanced gastric cancer

ESMO Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. e000670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinchul Kim ◽  
Jung Yong Hong ◽  
Seung Tae Kim ◽  
Se Hoon Park ◽  
Se Yong Jekal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Advanced Gastric Cancer ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Discrimination Performance ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Homogeneous Population ◽  
Scoring Model

ObjectiveIn this study, we established a risk scoring system using easily obtained clinical characteristics at the time of initiating palliative chemotherapy to predict accurate overall survival of patients with advanced gastric cancer after first-line treatment with fluoropyrimidine–platinum combination chemotherapy.MethodsA total of 1733 patients treated at the Samsung Medical Center, Korea were included in the study, and clinicopathological and laboratory data were retrospectively analysed. The dataset was split into a training set (n=1156, 67%) and a validation set (n=577, 33%). Top-ranked variables were identified using the random forest survival algorithm and integrated into a Cox regression model, thereby constructing the scoring system for predicting the overall survival of patients with advanced gastric cancer.ResultsThe following five variables were finally included in the scoring system: serum neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio, alkaline phosphatase level, albumin level, performance status and histologic differentiation. The scoring system determined four distinct risk groups in the validation dataset with median overall survival of 17.1 months (95% CI=14.9 to 20.5 months), 12.9 months (95% CI=11.4 to 14.6 months), 8.1 months (95% CI=5.3 to 12.3 months) and 3.9 months (95% CI=1.5 to 8.2 months), respectively. The area under the curve to estimate the discrimination performance of the scoring system was 66.1 considering 1 year overall survival.ConclusionsWe developed a simple and clinically useful predictive scoring model in a homogeneous population with advanced gastric cancer treated with fluoropyrimidine-containing and platinum-containing chemotherapy. However, additional independent validation will be required before the scoring model can be used commonly.

A clinical scoring system for survival prediction in advanced gastric cancer.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 436-436
Author(s):  
Jinchul Kim ◽  
Ja Hyun Yeo ◽  
Jung Yong Hong ◽  
Seung Tae Kim ◽  
Se Hoon Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Advanced Gastric Cancer ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Discrimination Performance ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Scoring Model ◽  
Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio

436 Background: We established a scoring system using easily approachable clinical characteristics at the timing of initiating palliative chemotherapy to achieve accurate overall survival prediction to first-line treatment consisting of fluoropyrimidines in patients with advanced gastric cancer. Methods: A total of 1,733 patients were included in the study. The dataset was split into a training (n=1156, 67%) and validation set (n=577, 33%). Top-ranked variables were identified using the Random Forest for Survival algorithm and analyzed into a Cox regression model, thereby constructing the scoring system for predicting overall survival of advanced gastric cancer. Results: Five variables were finally included in the scoring system: serum neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, alkaline phosphatase, albumin level, performance status, and histologic differentiation. The scoring system determined four distinct risk groups in validation dataset with median overall survival of 17.1 month (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14.9 to 20.5 month), 12.9 month (95% CI = 11.4 to 14.6 month), 8.1 month (95% CI = 5.3 to 12.3 month), and 3.9 month (95% CI = 1.5 to 8.2 month), respectively. AUC to estimate discrimination performance of the scoring system was 66.1 for one-year overall survival. Conclusions: We developed a simple and clinically useful predictive scoring model in a relatively homogenous population who initiate fluoropyrimidine-containing chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer. Generalized application of the scoring model will require additional independent validation. [Table: see text]

scholarly journals Individuals with familial hypercholesterolemia have increased risk of re-hospitalization after acute myocardial infarction compared with controls

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
K Svendsen ◽  
H.W Krogh ◽  
J Igland ◽  
G.S Tell ◽  
L.J Mundal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Acute Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Familial Hypercholesterolemia ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Public Institution ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
University Of Oslo

Abstract Background and aim We have previously reported that individuals with familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) have a two-fold increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared with the general population. The consequences of having an AMI on re-hospitalization and mortality are however less known. The aim of the present study was to compare the risk of re-hospitalization with AMI and CHD and risk of mortality after incident (first) AMI-hospitalization between persons with and without FH (controls). Methods The original study population comprised 5691 persons diagnosed with FH during 1992–2014 and 119511 age and sex matched controls randomly selected from the general Norwegian population. We identified 221 individuals with FH and 1947 controls with an incident AMI registered in the Norwegian Patient Registry (NPR) or the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway Project during 2001–2017. Persons with incident AMI were followed until December 31st 2017 for re-hospitalization with AMI or coronary heart disease (CHD) registered in the NPR, and for mortality through linkage to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Risk of re-hospitalization was compared with sub-hazard ratios (SHR) from competing risk regression with death as competing event, and mortality was compared using hazard ratios (HR) from Cox regression. All models were adjusted for age. Results Risk of re-hospitalization was 2-fold increased both for AMI [SHR=2.53 (95% CI: 1.88–3.41)] and CHD [SHR=1.82 (95% CI: 1.44–2.28)]. However, persons with FH did not have increased 28-day mortality following an incident AMI (HR=1.05 (95% CI: 0.62–1.78), but the longer-term (>28 days) mortality after first AMI was increased in FH [HR=1.45 (95% CI: 1.07–1.95]. Conclusion This study yields the important finding that persons with FH have increased risk of re-hospitalization of both AMI and CHD after incident AMI. These findings call for more intensive follow-up of individuals with FH after an AMI. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): University of Oslo and Oslo University Hospital

Abstract TP209: Effect of Chemotherapy on Stroke Risk in Cancer Patients

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Takaya Kitano ◽  
Tsutomu Sasaki ◽  
Yasufumi Gon ◽  
Kenichi Todo ◽  
Shuhei Okazaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Propensity Scores ◽  
Stroke Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Treatment Plan ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Chemotherapy Group ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: Chemotherapy may be a cause of cancer-associated stroke, but whether it increases stroke risk remains uncertain. We aimed to clarify the impact of chemotherapy on stroke risk in cancer patients. Methods: We investigated 27,932 patients enrolled in a hospital-based cancer registry at Osaka University Hospital between 2007 and 2015. The registry collects clinical data, including cancer status (site and stage), on all patients treated for cancer. Of them, 19,006 patients with complete data were included. A validated algorithm was used to identify stroke events within 2 years of cancer diagnosis. Patients were divided based on whether their initial treatment plan included chemotherapy. The association between chemotherapy and stroke was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and stratified Cox regression. Results: Of the 19,006 patients, 5,887 (31%) patients were in the chemotherapy group. Non-targeted chemotherapy was used in 5,371 patients. Stroke occurred in 44 patients (0.75%) in the chemotherapy group and 51 patients (0.39%) in the no-chemotherapy group. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed that patients in the chemotherapy group had a higher stroke risk than patients in the no-chemotherapy group (HR 1.84; 95% CI 1.23-2.75; Figure [A]). However, this difference was insignificant after adjustment for cancer status using inverse probability of treatment weighting with propensity scores (HR 1.20; 95% CI 0.76-1.91; Figure [B]). Similarly, in the stratified Cox regression model, chemotherapy was not associated with stroke after adjustment for cancer status (HR 1.26; 95% CI 0.78-2.03). These findings were consistent with analysis wherein the effect of chemotherapy was treated as a time-dependent covariate (HR 1.02; 95% CI 0.55-1.88). Conclusions: In this population, the elevated stroke risk in cancer patients who received chemotherapy was presumably due to advanced cancer stage; chemotherapy was not associated with the increased risk of stroke.

scholarly journals Serum Sulfhydryl Groups, Malondialdehyde, Uric Acid, and Bilirubin as Predictors of Adverse Outcome in Heart Failure Patients due to Ischemic or Nonischemic Cardiomyopathy

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Celina Wojciechowska ◽  
Wojciech Jacheć ◽  
Ewa Romuk ◽  
Anna Ciszek ◽  
Patryk Bodnar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oxidative Stress ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Uric Acid ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Sulfhydryl Groups ◽  
Nonischemic Cardiomyopathy ◽  
Oxidative Stress Biomarkers ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk

Oxidative stress plays a significant role in the pathogenesis of heart failure (HF). The aim of the study was to investigate the prognostic value of oxidation-reduction (redox) markers in patients with HF due to ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy. The study included 707 patients of HF allocated into two groups depending on ethology: ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM) ( n = 435 ) and nonischemic cardiomyopathy (nICM) ( n = 272 ), who were followed up for one year. The endpoint occurrence (mortality or heart transplantation) in a 1-year follow-up was similar in the ICM and nICM group. The predictive value of endpoint occurrence of oxidative stress biomarkers such as the serum protein sulfhydryl groups (PSH), malondialdehyde (MDA), uric acid (UA), bilirubin, and MDA/PSH ratio and other clinical and laboratory data were assessed in both groups (ICM and nICM) separately using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. In multivariate analysis, the higher concentrations of UA ( p = 0.015 , HR = 1.024 , 95% CI (1.005-1.044)) and MDA ( p = 0.004 , HR = 2.202 , 95% CI (1.296-3.741)) were significantly associated with adverse prognosis in patients with ICM. Contrastingly, in patients with nICM, we observed that higher bilirubin concentration ( p = 0.026 , HR = 1.034 , 95% CI (1.004-1.064)) and MDA/PSH ratio ( p = 0.034 , HR = 3.360 , 95% CI (1.096-10.302)) were significantly associated with increased risk of death or HT. The results showed the association of different oxidative biomarkers on the unfavorable course of heart failure depending on etiology.

Fibrinogen Concentrate to Cardiac Surgery Patients with Ongoing Bleeding does not Increase the Risk of Thromboembolic Complications or Death

2020 ◽  
Vol 120 (03) ◽  
pp. 384-391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarina Waldén ◽  
Anders Jeppsson ◽  
Salmir Nasic ◽  
Martin Karlsson
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Surgery ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Composite Endpoint ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Thromboembolic Complications ◽  
Fibrinogen Concentrate ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Secondary Endpoints

Abstract Background We investigated whether fibrinogen concentrate administration to bleeding patients is associated with an increased risk of thromboembolic complications and death. Methods All consecutive patients who underwent first-time cardiac surgery at Sahlgrenska University Hospital from 2009 to 2014 were included. Patients, who had received fibrinogen concentrate, were compared with those who had not received fibrinogen concentrate. The primary endpoint was a composite of thromboembolic complications and death within 1 year after surgery. Secondary endpoints included the composite and mortality within 30 days and mortality within 1 year after surgery. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression models were used to compare the groups. Propensity score (PS)-matched models were used for sensitivity analyses. Results A total of 5,408 patients were included in the present study, of which 564 (10.4%) received fibrinogen concentrate. The composite endpoint occurred in 3.5% of patients at 30 days and 10.5% at 1 year. There was no significant difference between the groups in the composite endpoint at 1 year (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.84–1.46, p = 0.45) or in the secondary endpoints, that is, mortality at 1 year (adjusted HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 0.93–2.04, p = 0.11), composite at 30 days (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.64–1.81, p = 0.79) and mortality at 30 days (adjusted OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.51–1.96, p = 0.50). The results of the sensitivity analyses were consistent with those of main analyses. Conclusion Perioperative administration of fibrinogen concentrate to bleeding cardiac surgery patients is not associated with an increased risk of thromboembolic complications or death.

scholarly journals Osteoporotic fractures in rheumatoid arthritis patients in Argentina: a matched retrospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Florencia S. Pierini ◽  
Martin Brom ◽  
Marina Scolnik ◽  
Valeria Scaglioni ◽  
Javier E. Rosa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Vertebral Fractures ◽  
Index Date ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Osteoporotic Fractures ◽  
Fracture Incidence ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Background To compare the incidence of osteoporotic fractures in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with matched controls from a university hospital. Methods Consecutive RA patients (n = 100) were matched (age and sex) with controls (1:2). The follow-up period began at the index date, defined as the date of diagnosis for RA patients and the date of the first medical claim at the Health Management Organization (HMO) for non-RA patients. Fracture incidence rates per 1000 persons-years (PY) for distinct types of fractures were calculated. Multivariate cox regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with fractures. Results One hundred RA patients were followed for a total of 975.1 patients-years and 200 controls for 1485.7 patients-years. No difference was found in the overall fracture incidence rate per 1000 PY between RA and controls (19.5, 95% CI 12.7–28.6 vs 12.1, 95% CI 7.7–18.7, p = 0.07). In the Cox regression analysis, only age (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02–1.11, p = 0.006) and history of a prior fracture (HR 9.85, 95% CI 2.97–32.64, p <  0.001) were associated with fractures after the index date. The stratified analysis of the fractures by location showed that only the vertebral fractures were more frequent in RA patients compared with controls (12.9 per 1000 PY, 95% CI 8.9–25.8, vs. 3.4, 95% CI 1.4–8.1, respectively, p = 0.01). Conclusion Patients with RA didn’t show an overall increased risk of osteoporotic fractures compared with matched controls, but vertebral fractures were more frequently observed in patients with RA.

scholarly journals Higher Long-term Visit-to-Visit Glycemic Variability Predicts New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-Chi Hsu ◽  
Yen-Yun Yang ◽  
Shu-Lin Chuang ◽  
Chih-Chieh Yu ◽  
Lian-Yu Lin
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Glycemic Variability ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Cardiac Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
New Onset

Abstract BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is prevalent in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Glycemic variability (GV) is associated with risk of micro- and macrovascular diseases. However, whether the GV can increase the risk of AF remains unknown.MethodsThe cohort study used a database from National Taiwan University Hospital, a tertiary medical center in Taiwan. Between 2014 and 2019, a total of 27246 adult patients with T2DM were enrolled for analysis. Each individual was assessed to determine the coefficients of variability of fasting glucose (FGCV) and HbA1c variability score (HVS). The GV parameters were categorized into quartiles. Multivariate Cox regression models were employed to estimate the relationship between the GV parameters and the risk of AF, transient ischemic accident (TIA)/ischemic stroke and mortality in patients with T2DM.ResultsThe incidence rates of AF and TIA/ischemic stroke were 21.31 and 13.71 per 1000 person-year respectively. The medium follow-up period was 70.7 months. In Cox regression model with full adjustment, the highest quartiles of FGCV was not associated with increased risk of AF (Hazard ratio (HR): 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.96-1.29, p=0.165) or TIA/ischemic stroke (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.82-1.29, p=0.821), but was associated with increased risk of total mortality (HR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.13-1.60, p<0.001) and non-cardiac mortality (HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.17-1.72, p<0.001). The highest HVS was significantly associated with increased risk of AF (HR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.12-1.48, p<0.001), total mortality (HR: 2.44, 95% CI: 2.04-2.91, p<0.001), cardiac mortality (HR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.04-2.10, p=0.028) and non-cardiac mortality (HR: 2.83, 95% CI: 2.31-3.14, p<0.001) but was not associated with TIA/ischemic stroke (HR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.79-1.26, p=0.989). The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significantly higher risk of AF, cardiac and non-cardiac mortality according to the magnitude of GV(log-rank<0.001). ConclusionsHigher GV is independently associated with the development of new-onset AF in patients with T2DM. Reducing GV may be a potential new therapeutic target to prevent AF.

scholarly journals The Association Between Biomarkers and Clinical Outcomes in Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pneumonia in a U.S. Cohort

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shant Ayanian ◽  
Juan Reyes ◽  
Lei Lynn ◽  
Karolyn Teufel
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Clinical Deterioration ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Markers Of Inflammation ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Icu Transfer ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
D Dimer

AbstractBackgroundThe global pandemic caused by COVID-19 remains poorly understood by clinicians. Identifying biologic markers associated with prognosis can help clinicians recognize disease severity.ObjectiveTo describe the association between D-dimer, CRP, IL-6, ferritin, LDH, and clinical outcomes in a cohort of COVID-19 patients treated on the inpatient medical service at a university hospital in Washington, DC.DesignIn this retrospective study, we included all adults admitted to the inpatient medicine service at George Washington University Hospital between March 12, 2020 and May 9, 2020 with laboratory confirmed COVID-19. Clinical and laboratory data were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors not requiring ICU transfer, survivors requiring ICU transfer, survivors requiring intubation, and non-survivors.Key Results299 patients were included in our study, of whom 69 required transfer to the ICU, 39 required intubation, and 71 died. Threshold values for IL-6 (≥50 pg/mL), D-dimer (≥3 mcg/mL), ferritin (≥450 ng/mL), CRP (≥100 mg/L), and LDH (1,200 u/L) were found to be statistically significant and independently associated with higher odd of clinical deterioration and death. Hypertension, CVA and heart disease independently had an increased risk of all three outcomes, while CKD had only an increased risk of death. Patient co-morbidities had no effect on the different biomarkers’ significant association with poor patient clinical outcomes, except cancer.ConclusionLaboratory markers of inflammation and coagulopathy can help clinicians identify patients who are at high risk for clinical deterioration, independent of clinically significant medical comorbidities.

scholarly journals Increased Kynurenine Indicates a Fatal Course of COVID-19

Antioxidants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1960
Author(s):  
Harald Mangge ◽  
Markus Herrmann ◽  
Andreas Meinitzer ◽  
Sabine Pailer ◽  
Pero Curcic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cox Regression ◽  
Troponin T ◽  
Renal Hypertension ◽  
Fatal Outcome ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Youden Index ◽  
Vitamin D Metabolites ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
D Dimer

(1) Background: An inefficient immune response accompanied by an overwhelming inflammatory reaction is involved in severe courses of COVID-19. Kynurenine (KYN) has important immune-modulatory functions and may contribute to a failure in controlling SARS-CoV-2. The present study aims to explore biomarkers that hint at a fatal outcome of COVID-19 early on. (2) Methods: We established a cohort of 148 hospitalized COVID-19 patients for this study. Thirty-one patients died due to a severe COVID-19 course, and 117 recovered within 90 days. We built a biobank by collecting left-over material from these patients whenever blood arrived at the central laboratory of our University hospital for analysis of routine markers. The scientific laboratory analysis comprised KYN, Tryptophan (TRP), KYN/TRP ratio, ferritin, interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), creatinine, N-terminal pro-natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), troponin T (TnT), fibrinogen, D-Dimer, prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), antithrombin (AT), protein C, protein S, factor XIII, lupus aPTT, angiotensin-2, vitamin D metabolites, and telomeres in all COVID-19 patients. Basic clinical characteristics and anteceding diseases including cardiovascular, oncologic, renal, hypertension, pulmonary, metabolic (diabetes, obesity) were recorded in a database together with the laboratory data. (3) Results: At the time of diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection those patients who deceased within 90 days afterwards due to COVID-19, had a significantly higher age, higher KYN, KYN/TRP ratio, ferritin, creatinine, and NTproBNP values than SARS-CoV-2 patients who survived COVID-19 along the same time span. In a Kaplan-Meier analysis the variables age, KYN, ferritin, D-Dimer, TnT, NTproBNP, and creatinine showed a significant influence on survival time. Gender, however, showed no influence. In a combined Cox regression analysis KYN had the highest hazard ratio (1.188, 95% CI: 1.071–1.319) followed by age (1.041, 95% CI: 1.011–1.073). In a ROC analysis, KYN values above the cut off limit of 4.82 nmol/l (as specified by Youden index) had a sensitivity of 82% (95% CI: 66–95%) and a specificity of 72% (95% CI: 65–82%) to predict COVID-19 related death within 90 days observation time. (4) Conclusions: Kynurenine is a promising blood biomarker to predict an increased risk of mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infected people already at the time of the first positive SARS-CoV-2 verification detected in these persons.

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