scholarly journals Using online data to track outbreaks and understand public responses during a pandemic: A rapid evidence review (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dale Weston ◽  
Natasha L. Bloodworth ◽  
Richard Amlôt ◽  
G. James Rubin
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Health Behaviours ◽  
Outbreak Detection ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Online Data ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Evidence Review

UNSTRUCTURED Established methods for collecting surveillance data and attitudinal or behaviour data during a pandemic are limited by issues including cost, timeliness and reliability. This paper presents the outcomes of a rapid evidence review exploring the potential utility of online data, and particularly social media data, for contributing to both outbreak detection and the assessment of influenza-related health behaviours and sentiments. Three literature reviews, including one systematised review, contributed to this rapid evidence review. The systematised review search was conducted on PubMed and Google Scholar. From an initial total of 787 papers found through the search, 54 relevant articles were identified and included in the synthesis. These papers were combined with our initial narrative reviews to form the rapid evidence review and subsequent literature synthesis. Overall, the literature suggests that online data do have a role to play in both surveillance and understanding public responses and concerns during large-scale infectious disease outbreaks. However, given the relative infancy of work in this area, more research is needed – particularly around evaluating the validity and reliability of these approaches – before complex online data can be used with confidence to inform public health decision-making.

scholarly journals Rigorous surveillance is necessary for high confidence in end-of-outbreak declarations for Ebola and other infectious diseases

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1776) ◽  
pp. 20180431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin N. Thompson ◽  
Oliver W. Morgan ◽  
Katri Jalava
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
World Health ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization considers an Ebola outbreak to have ended once 42 days have passed since the last possible exposure to a confirmed case. Benefits of a quick end-of-outbreak declaration, such as reductions in trade/travel restrictions, must be balanced against the chance of flare-ups from undetected residual cases. We show how epidemiological modelling can be used to estimate the surveillance level required for decision-makers to be confident that an outbreak is over. Results from a simple model characterizing an Ebola outbreak suggest that a surveillance sensitivity (i.e. case reporting percentage) of 79% is necessary for 95% confidence that an outbreak is over after 42 days without symptomatic cases. With weaker surveillance, unrecognized transmission may still occur: if the surveillance sensitivity is only 40%, then 62 days must be waited for 95% certainty. By quantifying the certainty in end-of-outbreak declarations, public health decision-makers can plan and communicate more effectively.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’. This issue is linked with the earlier theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.

scholarly journals Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Cencetti ◽  
G. Santin ◽  
A. Longa ◽  
E. Pigani ◽  
A. Barrat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Physical Distance ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractDigital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing contagion dynamics. We fill this gap with a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing in the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate how well contact tracing apps, coupled with the quarantine of identified contacts, can mitigate the spread in real environments. We find that restrictive policies are more effective in containing the epidemic but come at the cost of unnecessary large-scale quarantines. Policy evaluation through their efficiency and cost results in optimized solutions which only consider contacts longer than 15–20 minutes and closer than 2–3 meters to be at risk. Our results show that isolation and tracing can help control re-emerging outbreaks when some conditions are met: (i) a reduction of the reproductive number through masks and physical distance; (ii) a low-delay isolation of infected individuals; (iii) a high compliance. Finally, we observe the inefficacy of a less privacy-preserving tracing involving second order contacts. Our results may inform digital contact tracing efforts currently being implemented across several countries worldwide.

scholarly journals Information Communication Technologies (ICTs), Crisis Communication Principles and the COVID-19 Response in South Korea

2021 ◽  
pp. 097325862098117
Author(s):  
Hye-Jin Paek ◽  
Thomas Hove
Keyword(s):  
Crisis Communication ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Information Communication ◽  
Information And Communications Technologies ◽  
The South ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Control Programmes

This case study highlights several communication insights that have emerged from the South Korean national response to COVID-19. In particular, it focuses on how innovative disease control programmes and information and communications technologies (ICT) have been used in conjunction with appropriate message strategies. The South Korean government used ICTs in a variety of ways to enhance crisis communication, coordinate large-scale public health efforts and supply chains, and facilitate widespread adoption of preventive measures such as social distancing and mask wearing. The response and communication strategies were based on principles established by research in social sciences and recommended for pandemic response, including social marketing, crisis communication, and normative influence. South Korea’s COVID-19 response and communication strategies can provide useful insights for national efforts to manage COVID-19 and other possible future infectious disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals ‘All In’: A Pragmatic Framework for COVID-19 Testing and Action on a Global Scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syril D Pettit ◽  
Keith Jerome ◽  
David Rouquie ◽  
Susan Hester ◽  
Leah Wehmas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Material Resource ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Community ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Broad Consensus

Current demand for SARS-CoV-2 testing is straining material resource and labor capacity around the globe. As a result, the public health and clinical community are hindered in their ability to monitor and contain the spread of COVID-19. Despite broad consensus that more testing is needed, pragmatic guidance towards realizing this objective has been limited. This paper addresses this limitation by proposing a novel and geographically agnostic framework (‘the 4Ps Framework) to guide multidisciplinary, scalable, resource-efficient, and achievable efforts towards enhanced testing capacity. The 4Ps (Prioritize, Propagate, Partition, and Provide) are described in terms of specific opportunities to enhance the volume, diversity, characterization, and implementation of SARS-CoV-2 testing to benefit public health. Coordinated deployment of the strategic and tactical recommendations described in this framework have the potential to rapidly expand available testing capacity, improve public health decision-making in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and/or to be applied in future emergent disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals Sosialisasi Penggunaan Pembersih Tangan (Handsanitizer) yang Efektif dalam Upaya Memenuhi Standar WHO dan Protokol Kesehatan Sesuai dengan UU No. 6 Tahun 2018 tentang Karantina Kesehatan di Muhammadiyah Kramat Jati, Jakarta Timur

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-58
Author(s):  
Marjan Miharja ◽  
Erwin Syahruddin ◽  
Bionda Johan Anggara ◽  
Johan Johan ◽  
Gugus Atmoko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Government Regulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Religious Activities ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Hand Sanitizer ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spreading Disease

WHO determined COVID-19 as a pandemic on March 9, 2020, which is the strongest push for this community service program to be carried out. WHO has published guidance on adjusting the MFIs while managing the risk of a spike in case numbers. WHO publishes guidance on adapting to LKMS, while still managing the risk of a re-increase in the number of cases. A series of measures was developed to help provide guidance to countries in adapting public health measures to various contexts and this provides consideration for decision makers. In connection with the policy of controlling infectious disease outbreaks, Indonesia has Law Number 4 of 1984 concerning Communicable Disease Outbreaks, Government Regulation Number 40 of 1991 concerning Management of Contagious Disease Outbreaks, and Regulation of the Minister of Health Number 1501 / Menkes / Per / X / 2010 concerning Certain Types of Infectious Diseases That Can Cause Outbreaks and Countermeasures. Including various policies to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic issued by the government. One of them is the Large-Scale Social Restrictions or PSBB at the end of March. Citing Article 1 paragraph 11 of Law (UU) Number 6 of 2018 concerning Health Quarantine, PSBB is a limitation of certain activities of residents in an area suspected of being infected with a disease and / or contamination in such a way as to prevent the possibility of spreading disease or contamination. The policy covers at least school and work vacations, restrictions on religious activities and restrictions on activities in public places or facilities, including the socialization of washing hands using hand sanitizer which can be done in certain situations where soap and clean water are not available. For the results to be effective, the hand sanitizer used should contain at least 60% alcohol. This step is a necessity in order to prevent Covid-19 from becoming more widespread. The goal to be achieved from the socialization of good and correct hand washing is to understand the procedures, and be able to practice how to wash hands properly and correctly. It is hoped that in this socialization there will be a change in behavior in the community in washing hands as often as possible properly and correctly.

scholarly journals Infectious Disease Risk After the Great East Japan Earthquake

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 741-745 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoshi Mimura ◽  
◽  
Taro Kamigaki ◽  
Hitoshi Oshitani
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Great East Japan Earthquake ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Infectious disease outbreaks in postdisaster settings provide significant social impact although those outbreaks do not always occur. It is important to assess the potential risks of infectious disease in each setting. The Great East Japan Earthquake, which occurred March 11, 2011, imposed a huge impact on public health services. After the earthquake and following tsunami, many evacuation centers were sites of crowding as well as poor sanitation conditions because of the large- scale of destruction. Some shelters became sites of infectious disease outbreaks such as influenza and norovirus enteritis, although the size of these outbreaks was quite localized. Improvements in the response to infectious diseases through lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake are expected to be the triggers for improving preparedness for public health emergencies.

If Schools Are Closed, Who Will Watch Our Kids? Family Caregiving and Other Sources of Role Conflict among Nurses during Large-Scale Outbreaks

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 321-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracey L. O'Sullivan ◽  
Carol Amaratunga ◽  
Karen P. Phillips ◽  
Wayne Corneil ◽  
Eileen O'Connor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Family Caregiving ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Structured Interview ◽  
Family Work ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Work Conflict ◽  
Response Capacity ◽  
Work Family

AbstractObjectives:The global impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) brought attention to the role of healthcare professionals as “first receivers” during infectious disease outbreaks, a collateral aspect to their role as responders. This article records and reports concerns expressed by Canadian emergency and critical care nurses in terms of organizational and social supports required during infectious disease outbreaks. The nature of work-family and family-work conflict perceived and experienced by nurses during infectious disease outbreaks, as well as the supports needed to enable them to balance their social roles during this type of heightened stress, are explored.Methods:Five focus groups consisting of 100 nurses were conducted using a Structured Interview Matrix facilitation technique.Results:Four emergent themes included: (1) substantial personal/professional dilemmas; (2) assistance with child, elder, and/or pet care; (3) adequate resources and vaccinations to protect families; and (4) appropriate mechanisms to enable two-way communication between employees and their families under conditions of quarantine or long work hours.Conclusions:Social and organizational supports are critical to help buffer the effects of stress for nurses and assist them in managing difficult role conflicts during infectious disease outbreaks. These supports are necessary to improve response capacity for bio-disasters.

scholarly journals Combining weather patterns and cycles of population susceptibility to forecast dengue fever epidemic years in Brazil: a dynamic, ensemble learning approach

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah F. McGough ◽  
Cesar L. Clemente ◽  
J. Nathan Kutz ◽  
Mauricio Santillana
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mosquito Vector ◽  
Public Health Decision ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Susceptibility To Infection ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
Forecast Models

AbstractTransmission of dengue fever depends on a complex interplay of human, climate, and mosquito dynamics, which often change in time and space. It is well known that disease dynamics are highly influenced by a population’s susceptibility to infection and microclimates, small-area climatic conditions which create environments favorable for the breeding and survival of the mosquito vector. Here, we present a novel machine learning dengue forecasting approach, which, dynamically in time and adaptively in space, identifies local patterns in weather and population susceptibility to make epidemic predictions at the city-level in Brazil, months ahead of the occurrence of disease outbreaks. Weather-based predictions are improved when information on population susceptibility is incorporated, indicating that immunity is an important predictor neglected by most dengue forecast models. Given the generalizability of our methodology, it may prove valuable for public-health decision making aimed at mitigating the effects of seasonal dengue outbreaks in locations globally.

South Korea: Democracy, Innovation, and Surveillance

2021 ◽  
pp. 239-250
Author(s):  
Sunghee Chung ◽  
Sujin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Traumatic Experiences ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Surveillance Technology ◽  
Information And Communication

This chapter explores South Korea’s responses to the Covid-19 pandemic, focusing on its innovative approach and regulatory background in implementing the so-called “test-track-treat strategy.” Years earlier, South Korea revised and introduced a regulatory framework to allow for effective responses and interventions against infectious disease outbreaks in the aftermath of its traumatic experiences with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2015. The chapter looks at how the amendments to regulations related to infectious diseases in the aftermath of the MERS outbreak have worked to South Korea’s advantage in fighting Covid-19. However, despite South Korea’s success in “flattening the curve,” its use of large-scale testing, and information and communication technology (ICT) to track patients raises controversial human rights and privacy issues. The extensive use of surveillance technologies to track and monitor individuals has the potential to infringe upon and limit fundamental human rights. The chapter then illuminates the dilemma facing South Korea between democratic governance and surveillance technology and discusses how to reconcile, through a South Korean lens, potential tensions between individual freedom and public health in a state of emergency.

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