COVID-19 Pandemic Analysis for a Country’s Ability to Outbreak Control using Little’s Law: Infodemiology Approach (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao-Hua Ho ◽  
Yun-Juo Tai ◽  
Ling-Jyh Chen
Keyword(s):  
Recovery Time ◽  
Data Exchange ◽  
Prevention Policy ◽  
Medical Systems ◽  
Time Curve ◽  
Average Recovery ◽  
Little's Law ◽  
Little’S Law ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

BACKGROUND Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a country’s ability to control the epidemic depends on how well its health system accommodates COVID-19 patients. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to assess the ability of different countries to contain the COVID-19 epidemic in real-time with the number of confirmed, death and recovered cases. METHODS Using the dataset provided by the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), we compared the data from 16 countries between 2020/01/22 to 2020/09/15. We analyze the spreading of the virus using Little’s Law to predict a country’s ability for epidemic control. RESULTS According to the changes in the average recovery time curve, 16 countries are divided into different cases – Outbreak, Under Control, Second Wave of Outbreak, and Premature Lockdown Lift. Analyzing the dataset with Little’s Law, the curves of some countries (i.e., U.S., Spain, Netherlands, Serbia, France, Sweden, and Belgium) showed an upward trend representing their medical systems in these countries have been overloaded and unable to provide effective medical services to patients, i.e., those countries have lost control (i.e., Outbreak case) of COVID-19. On the other hand, after the pandemic-prevention policy was applied in some countries (i.e., Iceland, New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore), the average recovery time dropped with the number of new cases decreased (i.e., Under Control case). The prevention policy, e.g., lockdown and gathering restrictions, shows the effect after 14 days, which is the same as the incubation period of COVID-19. The result shows that the average recovery time (T) can be used as an indicator of the ability of a country on controlling the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS In this paper, we use Little’s Law to estimate the capacity of each country’s healthcare system for the COVID-19 pandemic and find out a new estimator to represent the severity of the pandemic. We study the impact of interventions on the average recovery time in some countries. The result shows that the average recovery time (T) can be used as an indicator of the ability on controlling the pandemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Analysis for a Country’s Ability to Control the Outbreak Using Little’s Law: Infodemiology Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5628
Author(s):  
Yao-Hua Ho ◽  
Yun-Juo Tai ◽  
Ling-Jyh Chen
Keyword(s):  
Recovery Time ◽  
Data Exchange ◽  
Prevention Policy ◽  
Medical Systems ◽  
Time Curve ◽  
Average Recovery ◽  
Little's Law ◽  
Little’S Law ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), all countries across the globe have been trying to control its spread. A country’s ability to control the epidemic depends on how well its health system accommodates COVID-19 patients. This study aimed to assess the ability of different countries to contain the COVID-19 epidemic in real-time with the number of confirmed cases, deaths and recovered cases. Using the dataset provided by the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), we analyzed the spread of the virus from 22 January 2020 to 15 September 2020 and used Little’s Law to predict a country’s ability to control the epidemic. According to the average recovery time curve changes, 16 countries are divided into different categories—Outbreak, Under Control, Second Wave of Outbreak, and Premature Lockdown Lift. The curves of outbreak countries (i.e., U.S., Spain, Netherlands, Serbia, France, Sweden, and Belgium) showed an upward trend representing that their medical systems have been overloaded and are unable to provide effective medical services to patients. On the other hand, after the pandemic-prevention policy was applied, the average recovery time dropped in under control countries (i.e., Iceland, New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore). Finally, we study the impact of interventions on the average recovery time in some of the countries. The interventions, e.g., lockdown and gathering restrictions, show the effect after 14 days, which is the same as the incubation period of COVID-19. The results show that the average recovery time (T) can be used as an indicator of the ability to control the pandemic.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Second Wave of COVID-19 on Outcomes in Hip Fracture Patients: An Observational Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 11589
Author(s):  
Mattia Morri ◽  
Cristiana Forni ◽  
Andrea Evangelista ◽  
Tania Broggian ◽  
Elisa Ambrosi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Recovery Time ◽  
Pressure Ulcers ◽  
Healthcare Outcomes ◽  
Average Complexity ◽  
Femur Fractures ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
Second Wave

The aim of this work was to measure the healthcare outcomes for patients undergoing surgery for femur fractures during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic within a context of orthopaedic surgery units and living with the pandemic and compare them with pre-pandemic outcomes. A retrospective observational study was conducted. The incidence of pressure ulcers and deambulation recovery time were the main outcome. The pre-pandemic group consisted of 108 patients and the second wave pandemic group included 194 patients. The incidence of pressure ulcers increased from 10% in the pre-pandemic period to 21% in the second wave (p = 0.016) and the crude relative risk (RR) was 2.06 (p = 0.023). The recovery of deambulation showed no significant difference in the recovery time in terms of days needed to walk the first time (3 days vs. 2 days; p = 0.44). During the second wave of COVID-19, the risk of pressure ulcers for patients undergoing femur fracture surgery increased significantly. This variation could be explained by the absence of a caregiver for these patients and the increased average complexity of the patients managed in the orthopaedic setting. The hospital management should take into account these aspects when restoring the hospital’s normal surgical activities.

scholarly journals Time Granularity Impact on Propagation of Disruptions in a System-of-Systems Simulation of Infrastructure and Business Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 3922
Author(s):  
Mateusz Iwo Dubaniowski ◽  
Hans Rudolf Heinimann
Keyword(s):  
Recovery Time ◽  
System Of Systems ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Business Networks ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
High Level ◽  
Systems Simulation ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

A system-of-systems (SoS) approach is often used for simulating disruptions to business and infrastructure system networks allowing for integration of several models into one simulation. However, the integration is frequently challenging as each system is designed individually with different characteristics, such as time granularity. Understanding the impact of time granularity on propagation of disruptions between businesses and infrastructure systems and finding the appropriate granularity for the SoS simulation remain as major challenges. To tackle these, we explore how time granularity, recovery time, and disruption size affect the propagation of disruptions between constituent systems of an SoS simulation. To address this issue, we developed a high level architecture (HLA) simulation of three networks and performed a series of simulation experiments. Our results revealed that time granularity and especially recovery time have huge impact on propagation of disruptions. Consequently, we developed a model for selecting an appropriate time granularity for an SoS simulation based on expected recovery time. Our simulation experiments show that time granularity should be less than 1.13 of expected recovery time. We identified some areas for future research centered around extending the experimental factors space.

scholarly journals Availability of Services and Caregiver Burden: Supporting Individuals With Neurogenetic Conditions During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 088307382110012
Author(s):  
Michelle Kowanda ◽  
Lindsey Cartner ◽  
Catherine Kentros ◽  
Alexa R. Geltzeiler ◽  
Kaitlyn E. Singer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Caregiver Burden ◽  
Educational Programs ◽  
Medical Systems ◽  
Medical Needs ◽  
Neurodevelopmental Disabilities ◽  
Delivery Of Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, in-person services for individuals with neurodevelopmental disabilities were disrupted globally, resulting in a transition to remote delivery of services and therapies. For individuals with neurogenetic conditions, reliance on nonclinical caregivers to facilitate all therapies and care was unprecedented. The study aimed to (1) describe caregivers’ reported impact on their dependent’s services, therapies, medical needs, and impact on themselves as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and (2) assess the relationship between the extent of disruption of services and the degree of self-reported caregiver burden. Two online questionnaires were completed by caregivers participating in Simons Searchlight in April and May 2020. Surveys were completed by caregivers of children or dependent adults with neurodevelopmental genetic conditions in Simons Searchlight. Caregivers reported that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic moderately or severely disrupted services, therapies, or medical supports. The majority of caregivers were responsible for providing some aspect of therapy. Caregivers reported “feeling stressed but able to deal with problems as they arise,” and reported lower anxiety at follow-up. Caregivers reported that telehealth services were not meeting the needs of those with complex medical needs. Future surveys will assess if and how medical systems, educational programs, therapists, and caregivers adapt to the challenges arising during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Volatility Modeling: An Overview of Equity Markets in the Euro Area during COVID-19 Pandemic

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1212
Author(s):  
Pierdomenico Duttilo ◽  
Stefano Antonio Gattone ◽  
Tonio Di Di Battista
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Volatility Modeling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Daily Returns

Volatility is the most widespread measure of risk. Volatility modeling allows investors to capture potential losses and investment opportunities. This work aims to examine the impact of the two waves of COVID-19 infections on the return and volatility of the stock market indices of the euro area countries. The study also focuses on other important aspects such as time-varying risk premium and leverage effect. This investigation employed the Threshold GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean model with exogenous dummy variables. Daily returns of the euro area stock markets indices from 4th January 2016 to 31st December 2020 has been used for the analysis. The results reveal that euro area stock markets respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the first wave of COVID-19 infections had a notable impact on stock market volatility of euro area countries with middle-large financial centres while the second wave had a significant impact only on stock market volatility of Belgium.

scholarly journals The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on adult diagnostic neuroradiology in Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Smits ◽  
M. W. Vernooij ◽  
N. Bargalló ◽  
A. Ramos ◽  
T. A. Yousry
Keyword(s):  
Online Courses ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
Personal Protection Equipment ◽  
Work Training ◽  
Healthcare Crisis ◽  
Area Of Concern ◽  
Media Channels ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Diagnostic Neuroradiology

Abstract Purpose The purpose of this survey was to understand the impact the Covid-19 pandemic has or has had on the work, training, and wellbeing of professionals in the field of diagnostic neuroradiology. Methods A survey was emailed to all ESNR members and associates as well as distributed via professional social media channels. The survey was held in the summer of 2020 when the first wave had subsided in most of Europe, while the second wave was not yet widespread. The questionnaire featured a total of 46 questions on general demographics, the various phases of the healthcare crisis, and the numbers of Covid-19 patients. Results One hundred sixty-seven responses were received from 48 countries mostly from neuroradiologists (72%). Most commonly taken measures during the crisis phase were reduction of outpatient exams (87%), reduction of number of staff present in the department (83%), reporting from home (62%), and shift work (54%). In the exit phase, these measures were less frequently applied, but reporting from home was still frequent (33%). However, only 22% had access to a fully equipped work station at home. While 81% felt safe at work during the crisis, fewer than 50% had sufficient personal protection equipment for the duration of the entire crisis. Mental wellbeing is an area of concern, with 61% feeling (much) worse than usual. Many followed online courses/congresses and considered these a viable alternative for the future. Conclusion The Covid-19 pandemic substantially affected the professional life as well as personal wellbeing of neuroradiologists.

scholarly journals A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Pieter Libin ◽  
Oana Petrof ◽  
Lander Willem ◽  
Steven Abrams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase 1 ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
National Level ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Initial Wave ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Stochastic Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, several countries adopted measures of social distancing to a different degree. For many countries, after successfully curbing the initial wave, lockdown measures were gradually lifted. In Belgium, such relief started on May 4th with phase 1, followed by several subsequent phases over the next few weeks. Methods We analysed the expected impact of relaxing stringent lockdown measures taken according to the phased Belgian exit strategy. We developed a stochastic, data-informed, meta-population model that accounts for mixing and mobility of the age-structured population of Belgium. The model is calibrated to daily hospitalization data and is able to reproduce the outbreak at the national level. We consider different scenarios for relieving the lockdown, quantified in terms of relative reductions in pre-pandemic social mixing and mobility. We validate our assumptions by making comparisons with social contact data collected during and after the lockdown. Results Our model is able to successfully describe the initial wave of COVID-19 in Belgium and identifies interactions during leisure/other activities as pivotal in the exit strategy. Indeed, we find a smaller impact of school re-openings as compared to restarting leisure activities and re-openings of work places. We also assess the impact of case isolation of new (suspected) infections, and find that it allows re-establishing relatively more social interactions while still ensuring epidemic control. Scenarios predicting a second wave of hospitalizations were not observed, suggesting that the per-contact probability of infection has changed with respect to the pre-lockdown period. Conclusions Contacts during leisure activities are found to be most influential, followed by professional contacts and school contacts, respectively, for an impending second wave of COVID-19. Regular re-assessment of social contacts in the population is therefore crucial to adjust to evolving behavioral changes that can affect epidemic diffusion.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Inequalities: Individual and Area Socioeconomic Factors (Aragón, Spain)

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6607
Author(s):  
Isabel Aguilar-Palacio ◽  
Lina Maldonado ◽  
Sara Malo ◽  
Raquel Sánchez-Recio ◽  
Iván Marcos-Campos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Deprivation Level ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Multilevel Analyses ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

It is essential to understand the impact of social inequalities on the risk of COVID-19 infection in order to mitigate the social consequences of the pandemic. With this aim, the objective of our study was to analyze the effect of socioeconomic inequalities, both at the individual and area of residence levels, on the probability of COVID-19 confirmed infection, and its variations across three pandemic waves. We conducted a retrospective cohort study and included data from all individuals tested for COVID-19 during the three waves of the pandemic, from March to December 2020 (357,989 individuals) in Aragón (Spain). We studied the effect of inequalities on the risk of having a COVID-19 confirmed diagnosis after being tested using multilevel analyses with two levels of aggregation: individuals and basic healthcare area of residence (deprivation level and type of zone). Inequalities in the risk of COVID-19 confirmed infection were observed at both the individual and area level. There was a predominance of low-paid employees living in deprived areas. Workers with low salaries, unemployed and people on minimum integration income or who no longer receive the unemployment allowance, had a higher probability of COVID-19 infection than workers with salaries ≥ €18,000 per year. Inequalities were greater in women and in the second wave. The deprivation level of areas of residence influenced the risk of COVID-19 infection, especially in the second wave. It is necessary to develop individual and area coordinated measures by areas in the control, diagnosis and treatment of the epidemic, in order to avoid an increase in the already existing inequalities.

scholarly journals Resilience Against COVID-19: How Italy Faced the Pandemic in Pediatric Orthopedics and Traumatology

Children ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 530
Author(s):  
Giovanni Trisolino ◽  
Renato Maria Toniolo ◽  
Lorenza Marengo ◽  
Daniela Dibello ◽  
Pasquale Guida ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Trauma Surgery ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Pediatric Orthopedics ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Surgical Interventions ◽  
Pediatric Orthopedic ◽  
Orthopedic Patients ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Background: We aimed to investigate the variation of medical and surgical activities in pediatric orthopedics in Italy, during the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, in comparison with data from the previous two years. The differences among the first wave, phase 2 and second wave were also analyzed. Methods: We conducted a retrospective multicenter study regarding the clinical and surgical activities in pediatric orthopedics during the pandemic and pre-pandemic period. The hospital databases of seven tertiary referral centers for pediatric orthopedics and traumatology were queried for events regarding pediatric orthopedic patients from 1 March 2018 to 28 February 2021. Surgical procedures were classified according to the “SITOP Priority Panel”. An additional classification in “high-priority” and “low-priority” surgery was also applied. Results: Overall, in 2020, we observed a significant drop in surgical volumes compared to the previous two years. The decrease was different across the different classes of priority, with “high-priority” surgery being less influenced. The decrease in emergency department visits was almost three-fold greater than the decrease in trauma surgery. During the second wave, a lower decline in surgical interventions and a noticeable resumption of “low-priority” surgery and outpatient visits were observed. Conclusion: Our study represents the first nationwide survey quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pediatric orthopedics and traumatology during the first and second wave.

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