Resources Allocation to Suppress the Spread of the Epidemic: A New Model with Consideration of Regional Influence (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Yao ◽  
Yong Liu ◽  
Gang Li ◽  
Xiaoxiang Zhang ◽  
Liang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Resources Allocation ◽  
Susceptible Individual ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Multiple Regions ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Allocation Methods

BACKGROUND During epidemics, how to allocate resources to suppress the spread of infectious disease is of great significance. Many researches focused on how to suppress the spread of infectious disease in the contact network. However, obtaining the contact network in a short period of time is difficult. OBJECTIVE When resources cannot meet the needs of multiple regions, it is necessary to consider how to allocate resources among multiple regions to limit the spread of the disease without details of the contact network. METHODS It proposed a resources allocation model to measure the cost of different allocation methods by the number of new infected individuals over a period of time. By calculating the probability of a susceptible individual being infected, it estimated the number of new infected individuals. In order to calculate the probability of a susceptible individual being infected by an infected individual in another region, conditional mutual information was introduced to estimate the strength of association relationship between regions. RESULTS Based on the proposed model, it compared the model costs of four different resources allocation methods and found three factors that affect the performance of each method, including the percentage of infected individuals, the resource coverage percentage, and the distribution of infected individuals in each region. CONCLUSIONS No method is better than other methods under any situations. When resources are allocated, the method with the least cost in a short period of time should be adopted according to the current infections, so as to control the epidemic as soon as possible.

Design of water allocation model: efficiency and risk aspects

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 9-16
Author(s):  
C. Kim ◽  
D. Han
Keyword(s):  
Water Allocation ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Proportional Allocation ◽  
Model Efficiency ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
Expected Benefits ◽  
Water Allocation Model ◽  
Allocation Methods

The primary objective of this study is to improve the methodology for water allocation focused on efficiency and risk aspects. To attain the primary objective, this study sets up an objective function to maximize social expected benefits, and considers three types of allocation methods. Three types of allocation methods are optimal, proportional, and fixed allocation between regions and service sectors. The results of case study area shows that the fixed allocation method is preferred to the proportional allocation in most cases except that the variance of flow is small with respect to efficiency. Also, efficient and less-risky allocation is simultaneously obtained in some cases, while efficiency and risk show the relation of trade-off in other cases.

scholarly journals Combining regional to local restoration goals in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cassia M.G. Lemos ◽  
Pedro R. Andrade ◽  
Ricardo R. Rodrigues ◽  
Leticia Hissa ◽  
Ana P. D. Aguiar
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Atlantic Forest ◽  
Natural Regeneration ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Brazilian Atlantic Forest ◽  
Regeneration Potential ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
The Cost

AbstractTo achieve regional and international large-scale restoration goals with minimum costs, several restoration commitments rely on natural regeneration, a passive and inexpensive strategy. However, natural regeneration potential may vary within the landscape, mainly due to its historical context. In this work, we use spatially explicit restoration scenarios to explore how and where, within a given region, multiple restoration commitments could be combined to achieve cost-effectiveness outcomes. Our goal is to facilitate the elaboration of forest restoration plans at the regional level, taking into consideration the costs for active and passive restoration methods. The approach includes (1) a statistical analysis to estimate the natural regeneration potential for a given area based on alternative sets of biophysical, land cover, and/or socioeconomic factors and (2) the use of a land change allocation model to explore the cost-effectiveness of combining multiple restoration commitments in a given area through alternative scenarios. We test our approach in a strategic region in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Biome, the Paraiba Valley in São Paulo State. Using the available data for 2011, calibrated for 2015, we build alternative scenarios for allocating natural regeneration until 2025. Our models indicate that the natural regeneration potential of the region is actually very low, and the cost-effectiveness outcomes are similar for all scenarios. We believe our approach can be used to support the regional-level decision-making about the implementation of multiple commitments aiming at the same target area. It can also be combined with other approaches for more refined analysis (e.g., optimization models).

NOSOCOMIAL INFECTION WITH ECHOVIRUS TYPE II IN HANDICAPPED AND PREMATURE INFANTS

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1973 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 603-607
Author(s):  
Henry G. Cramblett ◽  
Ralph E. Haynes ◽  
Parvin H. Azimi ◽  
Milo D. Hilty ◽  
Michael H. Wilder
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Premature Infants ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Hand Washing ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Bacterial Sepsis ◽  
Infectious Disease Unit ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Echovirus Type ◽  
Disease Unit

This report describes an outbreak of nosocomial infections due to echovirus type 11 among premature and/or handicapped infants in an intensive care unit. Four patients became ill within a short period of time and echovirus 11 was recovered from several of their specimens. The illnesses were clinically suggestive of bacterial sepsis and/or bacterial meningitis. Each of the four infants who became ill was in an isolette for a period of from 20 to 54 days before onset of illness. Three of the four patients became ill within 24 hours of one another which suggested a common exposure at nearly the same time. No index case could be identified, but it appears that this outbreak of enteroviral infections was due to inadequate hand washing by personnel. The outbreak was halted by removing the infants to an infectious disease unit and by closing the involved unit to new admissions for seven days.

scholarly journals A study on antibiotic prescription among the hospitalized pediatric patients at a referral center in Puducherry, India

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 700
Author(s):  
M. Bala Gopal ◽  
P. Thiyagarajan ◽  
Vinayagamoorthy Venugopal ◽  
Venkata Naveen Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Antimicrobial Resistance ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Hospitalized Children ◽  
Referral Centre ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Microbial Resistance ◽  
The Cost

Background: Antimicrobial resistance has reached to a significant proportion globally. This antimicrobial resistance increases the cost of health care in addition to the existing burden of the prevalence of infectious disease in developing countries. We need to have institutional protocols based on the standard guidelines. It is important for the clinician to use antibiotics only when it is necessary. The aim of the study was to analyze the rationality of the antibiotics used among the hospitalized children in the referral centre located in the rural area, to evaluate the pattern of antibiotics prescribed among the hospitalized children and to find out the factors associated with the usage of antibiotics among them.  Methods: Analytical, cross sectional study was performed on all patients admitted to the inpatient pediatric medical service at a referral centre situated in the rural part of the Puducherry, India during the period from July 2015 to June 2016. Results: 959 children were included in our study.607 children belong to less than 5 years of age group. Overall 60% of the children have received either oral or parenteral antibiotics. Based on the categorization of children as per the final clinical diagnosis children requiring antibiotic, can be used and not required are 13% (125), 38.6% (370) and 48.4% (464) respectively. Respiratory, gastrointestinal and systemic infectious diseases were the major group of cases admitted in our centre. Antibiotic use in respiratory and systemic infectious disease were maximum with 248 (70.1%) and 179 (71.6%) respectively. Among the antibiotics cephalosporin, penicillin group and azithromycin constitute more than 90% of the antibiotics prescribed cases.Conclusions: Overuse of antibiotic is universal and seen in both developed and developing countries. This increases the cost of treatment and increases the chances of microbial resistance. As per the W.H.O. recommendations surveillance system is required in all the hospitals to assess the antibiotic use and to monitor the prevalence of microbial resistance. 

The basic reproduction number

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Odo Diekmann ◽  
Hans Heesterbeek ◽  
Tom Britton
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Disease Epidemiology ◽  
Infectious Disease Epidemiology ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

The basic reproduction number (or ratio) R₀ is arguably the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology. It is among the quantities most urgently estimated for infectious diseases in outbreak situations, and its value provides insight when designing control interventions for established infections. From a theoretical point of view R₀ plays a vital role in the analysis of, and consequent insight from, infectious disease models. There is hardly a paper on dynamic epidemiological models in the literature where R₀ does not play a role. R₀ is defined as the average number of new cases of an infection caused by one typical infected individual, in a population consisting of susceptibles only. This chapter shows how R₀ can be characterized mathematically and provides detailed examples of its calculation in terms of parameters of epidemiological models, culminating in a set of algorithms (or “recipes”) for the calculation for compartmental epidemic systems.

Service-Oriented Cost Allocation for Business Intelligence and Analytics

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 40-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphael Grytz ◽  
Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Keyword(s):  
Business Intelligence ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Cost Allocation ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Pricing Scheme ◽  
Service Portfolio ◽  
Service Oriented ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Awareness

Quantifying and designing the cost pool generated by Business Intelligence and Analytics (BI&A) would improve cost transparency and invoicing processes, allowing a fairer, more exact allocation of costs to service consumers. Yet there is still no method for determining BI&A costs to provide a base for allocation purposes. While literature describes several methods for BI&A cost estimation on an ROI or resource-consumption level, none of these methods considers an overall approach for BI&A. To tackle this problem, the authors propose a service- oriented cost allocation model which calculates BI&A applications based on defined services, enabling a cost transfer to service consumers. This new approach specifies steps towards deriving a usable pricing scheme for an entire BI&A service portfolio – both for allocation purposes as well as improving cost evaluation of BI&A projects. Moreover, it increases customer understanding and cost awareness. Based on this approach, the authors introduce a BI&A value creation cycle which helps customers to use BI&A services cost-effectively.

scholarly journals Incorporating genomic methods into contact networks to reveal new insights into animal behaviour and infectious disease dynamics

Behaviour ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 155 (7-9) ◽  
pp. 759-791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie L.J. Gilbertson ◽  
Nicholas M. Fountain-Jones ◽  
Meggan E. Craft
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Ecology ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Contact Networks ◽  
Host Behaviour ◽  
Infectious Disease Dynamics ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Dynamic Interplay ◽  
Broad Overview

Abstract Utilization of contact networks has provided opportunities for assessing the dynamic interplay between pathogen transmission and host behaviour. Genomic techniques have, in their own right, provided new insight into complex questions in disease ecology, and the increasing accessibility of genomic approaches means more researchers may seek out these tools. The integration of network and genomic approaches provides opportunities to examine the interaction between behaviour and pathogen transmission in new ways and with greater resolution. While a number of studies have begun to incorporate both contact network and genomic approaches, a great deal of work has yet to be done to better integrate these techniques. In this review, we give a broad overview of how network and genomic approaches have each been used to address questions regarding the interaction of social behaviour and infectious disease, and then discuss current work and future horizons for the merging of these techniques.

scholarly journals Optimal Allocation Model of Water Resources Based on the Prospect Theory

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huaxiang He ◽  
Aiqi Chen ◽  
Mingwan Yin ◽  
Zhenzhen Ma ◽  
Jinjun You ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Resources Allocation ◽  
Simulation Methods ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Highly Skilled ◽  
Optimal Allocation Model

The rational allocation of water resources in the basin/region can be better assisted and performed using a suitable water resources allocation model. Rule-based and optimization-based simulation methods are utilized to solve medium- and long-term water resources allocation problems. Since rule-based allocation methods requires more experience from expert practice than optimization-based allocation methods, it may not be utilized by users that lack experience. Although the optimal solution can be obtained via the optimization-based allocation method, the highly skilled expert experience is not taken into account. To overcome this deficiency and employ the advantages of both rule-based and optimization-based simulation methods, this paper proposes the optimal allocation model of water resources where the highly skilled expert experience has been considered therein. The “prospect theory” is employed to analyze highly skilled expert behavior when decision-making events occur. The cumulative prospect theory value is employed to express the highly skilled expert experience. Then, the various elements of the cumulative prospect theory value can be taken as the variables or parameters in the allocation model. Moreover, the optimal water allocation model developed by the general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) has been improved by adding the decision reversal control point and defining the inverse objective function and other constraints. The case study was carried out in the Wuyur River Basin, northeast of China, and shows that the expert experience considered as the decision maker’s preference can be expressed in the improved optimal allocation model. Accordingly, the improved allocation model will contribute to improving the rationality of decision-making results and helping decision-makers better address the problem of water shortage.

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