scholarly journals An Empirical Study on the Impact of Trade War on Both the US and Chinese Economies, Based on the Value-at-risk Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. p279
Author(s):  
Mohammed Djebbouri ◽  
Mahmoud Laouni ◽  
Abderrahmane Tahi

The trade war between the US and China has led to global instability, this makes studying this topic very important and sensitive. This study aims to show the impact of the trade war on both the United States and China, by studying both US and Chinese companies before and after the trade war.Although the trade war is still ongoing and has not ended, but it is long enough to judge its impact on the two countries. In this study, the value at risk was used as a tool to compare the size of the risks to both the US and Chinese portfolios before and after the trade war, the results showed that the VaR of the US and Chinese portfolio after the trade war was greater than the VaR before the trade war, This means that the two countries were affected by the trade war.However, the results also showed that this change in the VaR of the US portfolio was greater than the change in the VaR of the Chinese portfolio, this means that the US portfolio has been more affected by the trade war than its Chinese counterpart.

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-112
Author(s):  
Zhao Jie

This article focuses on the impact of the pandemic coronavirus (COVID-19) on Sino-US relations. It describes Sino-US relations before and after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Particular attention is paid to the ongoing trade war between the PRC and the US, as well as the development of the information war caused by the politicization of the epidemic. The reasons for the deterioration of Sino-US relations under the influence of the coronavirus are considered. The author highlighted the following factors: US fears about the transition of world economic and political leadership from Washington to Beijing; the disagreement between China and the United States over the anti-epidemic in the framework of multilateral cooperation; problems caused by objectively accelerated changes in the world order. It is concluded that the epidemic plays a limited role in the deterioration of economic and political relations between China and the US. The fundamental reason remains the discrepancy between the unilateralism advocated by the US and multilateralism called for by China.


Author(s):  
Victor Adjarho Ovuakporaye

This paper aims to explore the US-China trade war by looking at various issues surrounding the US-China trade relation. The US-China trade war had been imminent since January 2018, meritoriously commenced on 6 July 2018, which is still ongoing. The US imposed sanctions on various Chinese goods, which was counter by the Chinese side also. Both side have felt the effect of the trade war though China felt the impact more than United States. Though, both nations have recently held positive trade talks which leads to the first phase of negotiation the trade war is still ongoing. If the partnership between the United states and China collapses, this will also end up harming the global economy severely since they are crucial cornerstones of the international economy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-168
Author(s):  
Rajesh Chadha ◽  
Sanjib Pohit ◽  
Devender Pratap

The growing protectionism globally and the outbreak of a major US–China trade war led Indian exports facing higher tariffs. This article has tried to investigate how India should react to the trade tensions between the two largest economies of the world. This will help policymakers in India to assess the impact of the likely developments and choose between different policy responses. In a bilateral US–China trade war, while both the United States and China stand to lose in terms of GDP, exports and imports, India stands to gain. India stands to lose when the US–China trade war applies also to India, which faces higher tariffs from both. India’s losses increase further when India responds by increasing its tariffs on imports from the United States and China. In fact, reducing own tariffs could be a wiser step. Enhancing productivity measures by raising port efficiency and making trade and transport sector more efficient appear to pay dividend. India gains even more from joining the RCEP-like trading block when the United States and China are indulging in bilateral trade war. Last but not least, US–China trade war seems to affect Asian countries, some positively some negatively. JEL Codes: F13, C68, F14


2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (9) ◽  
pp. 2731-2783 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Handley ◽  
Nuno Limão

We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China's export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000– 2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers' income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it. (JEL D72, F13, F14, O19, P33)


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S741-S742
Author(s):  
Tianyan Hu ◽  
Eric Sarpong ◽  
Yan Song ◽  
Nicolae Done ◽  
Qing liu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Pneumonia causes significant pediatric morbidity, mortality, and healthcare resource utilization. S. pneumoniae is a leading cause of bacterial pneumonia in children. Merck is developing V114, an investigational 15-valent PCV that contains PCV13 serotypes as well as 22F and 33F. To demonstrate the potential value of V114, it is important to estimate the remaining burden associated with pneumococcal pneumonia (PP). This study was to estimate incidence rates (IRs) of non-invasive PP before and after PCV7 and PCV13 introduction in children in the US. Methods PP-related claims in children < 18 years were identified in the IBM MarketScan® Commercial database (1998-2018) using pneumococcal specific ICD9/10 codes. Claims with any invasive pneumococcal disease ICD9/10 codes were excluded. An episode could comprise one or more claims. Episodes with any inpatient stays were categorized as inpatient, and as outpatient otherwise. Age-stratified (< 2, 2-4, and 5-17 years) IRs were episodes per 100,000 patient-years (PYs) during the pre-PCV7 (1998-1999), early and late PCV7 (2001-2005, 2006-2009), and early and late PCV13 (2011-2013, 2014-2018) periods. Results Inpatient and outpatient PP IRs decreased steadily in children < 2 years (146.8, 117.9, 102.0, 67.8, and 32.2 per 100,000 PYs for pre-PCV7, early and late PCV7, and early and late PCV13 periods, respectively; Figure 1). In children 2-4 years, IRs increased slightly from 88.6 to 90.0 per 100,000 PYs from the pre-PCV7 to early PCV7 period, then declined to 83.9 and 30.8 per 100,000 PYs in the late PCV7 and late PCV13 periods, respectively (Figure 2). In children 5-17 years, IRs declined from 35.3 to 34.2 per 100,000 PYs from the pre-PCV7 to early PCV7 period, stabilized at 34.1 per 100,000 PYs in the late PCV7 period, followed by a steeper decline to 12.5 per 100,000 PYs in the late PCV13 period (Figure 3). The majority of episodes were outpatient in all three age groups. Figure 1. Non-invasive pneumococcal pneumonia incidence in children <2 years, episodes per 100,000 patient-years (1998 - 2018) Figure 2. Non-invasive pneumococcal pneumonia incidence in children 2 - 4 years, episodes per 100,000 patient-years (1998 - 2018) Figure 3. Non-invasive pneumococcal pneumonia incidence in children 5 - 17 years, episodes per 100,000 patient-years (1998 - 2018) Conclusion In children < 2 years, IRs of non-invasive PP decreased after introduction of PCV7 and PCV13. Following introduction of PCV 7 and PCV13, there remains a residual burden of non-invasive PP in children in the US. The impact of future PCVs on PP will depend on the proportion of PP caused by S. pneumoniae and vaccine-type serotypes. Disclosures Tianyan Hu, PhD, Merck (Employee, Shareholder) Yan Song, PhD, Merck (Consultant) Nicolae Done, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Consultant) Qing liu, PhD, Merck (Consultant) James Signorovitch, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Consultant) Tanaz Petigara, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder)


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
O. V. Ignatova ◽  
O. A. Gorbunova

The article is devoted to one of the urgent problems of the world economy: the trade opposition of the United States and China. Due to the fact that these countries occur to be the largest economies in the world, their conflict cannot in one way or another be reflected in other subjects of international economic relations. The article analyzes the main stages of the trade war between the United States and China and formulates the causes of the crisis.On the basis of a regional approach and analysis of statistical data it became possible to make an assessment of the effects that the US-PRC rivalry has on mutual trade, investment and energy cooperation between Russia and China. It is noted that in connection with the trade conflict, Russian-Chinese relations are reaching a new level of development, the number of joint economic projects is growing. However, the confrontation between the United States and China brings not only opportunities, but also risks for Russia. The authors make a forecast about the impact of the trade war on the economy of the Russian Federation in the short and medium term.


2020 ◽  
pp. 000313482095482
Author(s):  
Megan R. Donnelly ◽  
Philip S. Barie ◽  
Areg Grigorian ◽  
Catherine M. Kuza ◽  
Sebastian Schubl ◽  
...  

Background The impacts of social stressors on violence during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are unknown. We hypothesized that firearm purchases and violence would increase surrounding the pandemic. This study determined the impact of COVID-19 and shelter-in-place (SIP) orders on firearm purchases and incidents in the United States (US) and New York State (NYS). Methods Scatterplots reflected trends in firearm purchases, incidents, and deaths over a 16-month period (January 2019 to April 2020). Bivariate comparisons of SIP and non-SIP jurisdictions before and after SIP (February 2020 vs. April 2020) and April 2020 vs. April 2019 were performed with the Mann-Whitney U test. Results The incidence of COVID-19 in the US increased between February and April 2020 from 24 to 1 067 660 and in NYS from 0 to 304 372. When comparing February to March to April in the US, firearm purchases increased 33.6% then decreased 22.0%, whereas firearm incidents increased 12.2% then again increased by 3.6% and firearm deaths increased 23.8% then decreased in April by 3.8%. In NYS, comparing February to March to April 2020, firearm purchases increased 87.6% then decreased 54.8%, firearm incidents increased 110.1% then decreased 30.8%, and firearm deaths increased 57.1% then again increased by 6.1%. In both SIP and non-SIP jurisdictions, April 2020 firearm purchases, incidents, deaths, and injuries were similar to April 2019 and February 2020 (all P = NS). Discussion Coronavirus disease 2019–related stressors may have triggered an increase in firearm purchases nationally and within NYS in March 2020. Firearm incidents also increased in NYS. SIP orders had no effect on firearm purchases and firearm violence.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Olga V. Ignatova ◽  
Olga A. Gorbunova ◽  
Olga Yu. Tereshina ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  

The article is devoted to one of the urgent problems of the world economy: the trade opposition of the United States and China. Due to the fact that these countries occur to be the largest economies in the world, their conflict cannot in one way or another be reflected in other subjects of international economic relations. The article analyzes the main stages of the trade war between the United States and China and formulates the causes of the crisis. On the basis of a regional approach and analysis of statistical data, it became possible to make an assessment of the effects that the US–PRC rivalry has on mutual trade, investment, and energy cooperation between Russia and China. It is noted that in connection with the trade conflict, Russian–Chinese relations are reaching a new level of development, and the number of joint economic projects is growing. However, the confrontation between the United States and China brings not only opportunities but also risks for Russia. The authors make a forecast about the impact of the trade war on the economy of the Russian Federation in the short and medium term.


2021 ◽  
Vol 232 ◽  
pp. 02001
Author(s):  
Syahrul Ganda Sukmaya ◽  
Saptana Saptana

In recent history, the ongoing trade war between the United States and China is unparalleled. This research looks at the impact of trade wars on Indonesian agricultural products' competitiveness and export performance. The methods used for this study are NRCA, EPD and CMSA. We find that conditions of the trade war between China and the US affect the competitiveness and competitiveness of Indonesian agricultural products in the destination countries. The impact of the trade war conditions on the competitiveness of Indonesian agricultural products compared to China and their export to the United States. Indonesia's agricultural exports during the trade war to China's and US destination countries are: HS 01, HS 04, HS 08, HS 12 and HS 18. Indonesian agricultural exports to China and the US are influenced primarily by the increase in global demand and the composition of competitiveness.


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