Uncertainty in World Politics: New “Normality” or New “Abnormality”

In the conditions of turbulent transformations of the world order, life itself, with its contradictions, difficulties and surprises, extremely actualizes the problems associated with unforeseen risks and challenges to world development. The coronavirus pandemic has created a new “normality” or, more precisely, a new “abnormality” in which countries find themselves regardless of their geopolitical status and place in the international hierarchy. The global coronavirus crisis has exacerbated the already growing uncertainty in global political processes. Uncertainty and the associated strategic instability is a breeding ground for preserving acutely problematic nodes of global politics and delaying the search for constructive solutions that bring them closer to a mutually acceptable model of the coming world order. The phenomenon of apolarity is becoming more and more complicated and has been linked in recent years with the growing weight and influence of new geopolitical players and centers of power — China, India, Latin America states. The international positions of Russia have significantly strengthened, which has acquired a full-fledged role in global politics. In the context of the current geopolitical confrontations and competitive rivalry, the experience of understanding uncertainty in the scientific and expert communities of Russia acquires special practical and political significance.

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict in the Context of Changing Regional Geopolitics

The article analyzes the changes in the South Caucasus associated with the results of the Armenian-Azerbaijani hostilities in the fall of 2020. According to the author, a radical breakdown of the geopolitical configuration of the region took place. The long-term ethnopolitical conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a thing of the past, the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (Republic of Artsakh) practically ceased to exist. For the first time in 30 years, Russian peacekeepers have returned to these lands. The role of Turkey, a longtime arbiter of Caucasian affairs, has been revived. An end has been put in the most important of the interethnic conflicts that have destroyed the USSR since the late 1980s. And it was Russia who did it.As a result, each of the two republics controls only its internationally recognized territories, while Karabakh continues to exist de facto under the control of Russian peacekeepers. The decisiveness of V. Putin, who took upon himself the rescue of the civilian population and the settlement of the conflict, his ability to “persuade” irreconcilable enemies to stop the war and agree with the subsequent “peacekeeping intervention” contributed to a noticeable increase in Russia’s prestige in the region. However, the role of an independent arbiter capable of solving “insoluble” problems is impossible without strong political, legal, economic and military positions in the region. Therefore, the expansion of the Russian presence in the Transcaucasus is a factor of strategic importance that meets the national interests of Russia. The author believes that given the dismissive and consumerist attitude of the ruling elite of Armenia towards Russia, the time has come to adjust the choice of strategic partners in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is actively cooperating with Russia in key areas of world politics. One of the examples is the creation on the initiative of I. Aliyev of new formats of trilateral diplomacy in the composition of Azerbaijan-Turkey-Russia and Azerbaijan-Iran-Russia. An equally significant example is cooperation with Baku within the framework of the “Caspian Five”.Taking into account the specifics of the “multi-vector” nature of the South Caucasian states, it is advisable to conduct constant monitoring of Russian approaches to relations with them from the point of view of equal and pragmatic cooperation. This will make it possible to avoid that the resulting vacuum will be occupied by other powers that have been making themselves known more and more in recent years. Therefore, it is vitally important for Moscow that the authorities of the South Caucasus take into account its political interests.

Elections of Deputies of the State Duma of the Second Convocation (1995-1999): the Success of the Anti-reform Opposition, the Failure of the “Party of Power” and the Defeat of the Democrats (to the 30th Anniversary of the Russian Federation)

The article is devoted to the political and historical analysis of the elections of deputies of the State Duma of the second convocation in 1995. The political context of these elections is assessed as a confrontation between the “party in power” and the anti-reform opposition. To counteract the opposition, the “party in power” created its own political structure to participate in the elections — the movement “Our Home-Russia” (NDR), headed by Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin. An analysis of the process of creating the PDR movement, which took place under the auspices of the Presidential Administration, confirms the use of the administrative resource of the presidential and executive powers in this process. The creation of the NDR movement led to the erosion of the reformist-democratic wing. The weakening of this flank was also facilitated by the fact that the political organizations forming it could not unite. Two leading political organizations with a reformist-democratic orientation — Yegor Gaidar’s Democratic Choice of Russia party and Grigory Yavlinsky’s Yabloko public association did not create a common electoral bloc, although there were objective prerequisites for this. A significant aspect of the 1995 election campaign was the fact that Russian industry corporations and financial and industrial groups began to show an active interest in the elections of deputies. They began to incorporate lobbyists of their interests into the parliamentary corps. At the elections of deputies of the State Duma of the second convocation in 1995. success accompanied the anti-reform opposition and, above all, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, failure befell the “party of power” represented by the NDR movement, and the reformist democrats who failed to unite suffered a crushing defeat. The State Duma of the second convocation had a pronounced anti-reform and oppositional character to the incumbent president and the executive branch, but at the same time it was a fairly independent political institution, which retained certain opportunities for competitive legislative activity and the search for compromises in crisis situations. The 1995 elections cannot be assessed as completely fair and free, and, starting with these elections, the bacillus of electoral corruption was introduced into the organism of Russian politics.

Modern Vectors of Russian Diplomacy in the Post-Soviet Space

The countries of the post-Soviet space are of particular importance for Russia’s geopolitical interests. This primarily concerns the political and economic processes taking place in them. Moreover, of great importance are the approaches of the post-Soviet countries to cooperation with Russia and integration processes in the post-Soviet space. In view of significant negative trends in the international arena, the consolidation of the post-Soviet space is acquiring paramount significance. Numerous challenges and complexity of the tasks that Russia is facing in the present region underscore the need for a balanced, pragmatic and forward-looking approach in bilateral and multilateral relations with the states. The focus of Russian diplomacy is still on Ukraine, the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Moldova and Belarus. These countries are the priority partners of Russia, the priority of its foreign policy.

Implications of the New EU Carbon Border Tax for the EAEU

The article focuses on the interaction of the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union in the context of green technological transformation. The European Union is actively pursuing a policy of transition to a carbon-neutral economy. In this regard, it intends to implement a special tax mechanism, which may significantly limit export opportunities for the EAEU. Moreover, the EU is one of the key partners of the EAEU and plays a major role in the economic development of individual countries that are members of the integration association. The article further discusses the projected risks for the EAEU member states, and provides measures that can ensure trade security of the Union’s countries on the European markets. In particular, measures should be aimed at the development own environmental legislation, harmonization of the legislation of EAEU member states, and the creation of permanent negotiation mechanisms to bring together the positions of EAEU countries in the context of the climate policy pursued by the European Union.

Regional Security in the South Caucasus: The Energy Factor

A key factor that influenced regional security in the South Caucasus was the hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the fall of 2020. Those events have changed the balance of power in the region. The efforts of Azerbaijan, which relied on political and military support from Turkey, led to Baku’s control over part of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The hostilities of the fall of 2020 aggravated the internal political situation in Armenia. Turkey strengthened its position in the region. In addition to solving geopolitical problems and promoting its economic interests in the countries of the South Caucasus, Ankara’s policy was aimed at expanding its presence in the energy sector, including through increased influence on Azerbaijan. The implementation of the “Southern Gas Corridor” project has made Turkey a key “player” in the South Caucasus in the energy sphere. Ankara has gained an opportunity to influence gas supplies to Europe. It also has access to Azerbaijan’s gas streams. In the long run, Turkey hopes to reach hydrocarbon resources on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea, particularly Turkmen gas. With information and political support from the United States, Turkey has promoted the idea of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline. Thus, Turkey’s policy promoted the development of the East-West Energy Corridor. The Turkish-Azerbaijani-Georgian trilateral format contributed to this. It allowed Ankara to greatly expand its presence in the South Caucasus and to impact the political and economic development of Azerbaijan and Georgia. Overall, however, Ankara’s policy has had a negative impact on regional security and has intensified the competition for influence in the South Caucasus among extra-regional actors.

United Kingdom’s Migration Practice for Post-Soviet States

The article offers a comparative analysis of the modern political realities in the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation. In that regard, there is a given account of the principal political problems which are springing from migration. The article offers an estimate of modern migration laws of the United Kingdom. The possibility of appliance of the British governmental initiatives up on the post-Soviet states by the Russian government is examined.

Foreign Policy Tools for Water Management in Central Asia

This article is devoted to the issue of ineffective and irrational water management in Central Asia. Water management has gained transboundary character, states are divided by their upstream and downstream status and water is perceived as unlimited natural resource which requires new approaches. Author proposes foreign policy tools for water management as constant political dialogue, establishment of permanent body on water management and initiation of projects within China’s Belt and Road imitative, US’s Greater Central Asia and Russia’s Greater Eurasia platform. The vital importance of water as natural resource for life and human development is unquestionable and needs special attention in the context of the climate change and growing population of the Central Asian region. Asian Development Bank has provided three recommendations to Central Asian governments in facing climate change as expanding the supply of water available in the future; increasing the productivity of water; and reducing future demand for water. With predictions of the UN Population Prospects by 2050 Central Asia will have about 100 million inhabitants which undoubtedly will also increase the need for water resources. Taking into acount such factors as climate change and growing population the need for water resources will become only vital in the neearest future and demand for effective and rational water management must be already on the regional agenda.

On the Influence of Internal Factors on Romania’s Foreign Policy and Image

The article describes the internal processes in Romania after the collapse of the communist regime. The author attempts to determine the connection between the domestic and foreign policy of the country. This issue deserves attention since Romania's National Defence Strategy 2020–2024 prioritises the strengthening of the country's resilience and at the same time increasing international political weight. Having taken this into consideration, the author evaluates the domestic policy factors which have influenced the image of Romania in the international arena.

Features of Water Diplomacy in Central Asia

Water issues are traditionally one of the most complex and controversial issues in Central Asia. Over the 30 years since independence, the five republics have not been able to come to a single agreement on the use of water resources. Mainly because their interests do not coincide. The region is conventionally divided into agricultural and energy republics. Some need to irrigate their lands, others are interested in producing electricity. Each of the five republics strives to take into account primarily its own interests, sometimes disregarding the interests of its neighbors. The article deals with the problems of the development of water diplomacy between the states of Central Asia. It is noted that this problem is relevant for the region due to the peculiarities of the position and legal regime of transboundary rivers in Central Asia.