scholarly journals HOW DID COVID-19 PANDEMIC AFFECT THE TOURISM INDEX IN BORSA ISTANBUL?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ercan Özen ◽  
Letife Özdemir
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
Cointegration Relationship ◽  
Ardl Bound Test

This study aims to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Turkey's tourism sector. In the study, for the period 12 March 2020 - 31 August 2020 the daily data of the BIST tourism stock index and Covid-19 case and death counts in Turkey were used. The cointegration relationship between the Covid-19 pandemic and the BIST tourism index was investigated with the ARDL bound test. In addition, the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the BIST tourism index was tested with the FMOLS regression method. As a result of the ARDL bound test, it was determined that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the Covid-19 case and death numbers and the BIST tourism index. According to the FMOLS regression model results, it is seen that the deaths of Covid 19 significantly affect the tourism index. A 1% increase in the number of deaths causes the BIST tourism index to decrease by 0.08%. The coefficient of the number of Covid-19 cases is not significant, showing that the number of cases does not have a sufficient effect on the tourism index.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on the Spanish tourism sector

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662095991
Author(s):  
Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana ◽  
Carlos Poza
Keyword(s):  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean Reverting Process

We examine in this note the impact of COVID-19 on the Spanish tourism sector by using a strong dependence model. Daily data from five equity markets are used and we find that the coronavirus crisis has increased the persistence in the data, moving in some of the series from a mean reverting process to a non-mean reverting one. Thus, shocks that were expected to be transitory have become permanent, implying the need of strong policy measures to come the series back to their long-term projections.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Hospitality Industry in Greece and Its Treasured Santorini Island

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7906
Author(s):  
Nikola Medová ◽  
Lucie Macková ◽  
Jaromir Harmacek
Keyword(s):  
Social Impact ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Multiple Variables ◽  
Hospitality Sector ◽  
Tourism And Hospitality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Further Development

This paper focuses on the dynamic of the recent upheaval in the tourism and hospitality sector due to the COVID-19 epidemic in Greece and Santorini island. It uses the case study of a country one-fourth of whose GDP consists of tourism. We compare the available statistical data showing the change in variables in the previous years with 2020 and look into the new challenges and opportunities posed by the drop in the numbers of visitors and flights. We focus mainly on the economic and social impact on the destination and possible future scenarios for further development in the area. Data show a significant effect of the pandemic on multiple variables, such as the long-term trend of the importance of tourism sector in GDP in Greece, the number of flights and visitors to Greece and Santorini island, and the contribution of tourism and travel to GDP. Based on the available data, we also construct three foresight scenarios that describe the possible futures for Santorini island in terms of the pandemic evolution. These scenarios may help various stakeholders and policymakers to be better prepared for different developments that may appear.

scholarly journals The Impact of Education and Residential Environment on Long-Term Waste Management Behavior in the Context of Sustainability

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreea Simona Saseanu ◽  
Rodica-Manuela Gogonea ◽  
Simona Ioana Ghita ◽  
Radu Şerban Zaharia
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Academic Staff ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Education Level ◽  
Waste Reduction ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Long Term Behavior ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

Currently, the problem of waste reduction is a permanent concern for all countries of the world, given the need to ensure the sustainability development. In this context, the research aims to highlight the impact of education and demographic factors by residence areas on the long-term behavior of the amount of waste generated in 29 European countries during 2013–2017. The study is based on statistical and econometric modeling aimed at identifying, testing and analyzing the existence of long-term correlation between the amount of waste per capita recorded in each country and four factors of influence considered significant for waste reduction: Pupils and students by education level and Classroom teachers and academic staff by education level, representing exogenous variables which quantify the educational outcomes, as well as The population by degree of urbanization (cities, rural areas), as demographic factors. As a result of an analysis based on correlation and regression method, a cointegration relationship between the analyzed variables was identified. Considering the amount of waste as an important component of the environmental pressure, the obtained results show the significant long-term effect that education and the demographic factor can have on its long-lasting behavior, as well as the ways through which these factors can act to strengthen sustainability.

scholarly journals Long-Term Effects of Expiration of Derivatives on Indian Spot Volatility

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunita Narang ◽  
Madhu Vij
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Volume Effect ◽  
Indian Market ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Asymmetric Garch ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spot Volatility

This paper examines the impact of expiration of derivatives on spot volatility of Indian capital market. The review of the literature shows that the previous Indian studies have covered a period of only 4–6 years after the introduction of derivative trading in India in 2000. They are unanimous about volume effect but not about return and volatility effect. This paper uses regression techniques and one symmetric and three asymmetric GARCH models, namely, TGARCH, EGARCH, and PGARCH, to evaluate the impact. It uses daily data on popular index S&P CNX Nifty of National Stock Exchange of India, during a period of more than a decade from June 12, 2000 to January 10, 2012. Findings of the study show that spot returns, volume, and volatility are high on expiration day and they build up further on the day after expiry which shows that the Indian market is weakly efficient. The expiration effect is mainly due to concentration of volumes in near-month contracts and absence of physical settlement.

scholarly journals An analysis of the impact of non-oil exports on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-23
Author(s):  
Lawali Bello Zoramawa ◽  
Machief Paul Ezekiel ◽  
Salisu Umar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Agricultural Export ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
Ardl Bound Test

The study assessed the contribution of the non-oil sector to the economic growth in Nigeria between the periods 1981 and 2019. The study employed the ARDL bound test for cointegration to analyze the direction among the variables under review. The results of the analysis revealed that there is a negative and statistically significant relationship between non-oil exports (NOE) and economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria during the period under investigation in the long-run for Manufacturing (MANX), solid mineral(SOLX) except for Agricultural export (AGRX). There is also a bidirectional causal relationship between non-oil exports and economic growth in Nigeria during the same period. The study, therefore recommended that the Nigerian government and other stakeholders should make a country’s non-oil export commodities more attractive and competitive in the global market which will prompt the demand for Nigeria’s non-oil goods at the international market.  Keywords: Non-Oil exports, Economic Growth,

scholarly journals The Dynamic Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: A Bound Testing Co-integration Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-57
Author(s):  
Jamil Shah ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Research Work ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
Swat Valley ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

Tourism industry is considered a key driver promoting socioeconomic development in under development economy, but there are several factors which hindering this development. The terror incidence in swat valley have severely affected tourism industry of the area. Terrorism is a growing hazard across the globe with severs socio-economic consequences. Pakistan is also playing it’s was against terrorism that it has affected its various economic activities including tourism. During the first decade of the ongoing century, northern mountainous area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which was famous for tourism, was badly affected by incidences of terror2. The objective of this research work is to estimate the impact of terror incidents on domestic tourism in Pakistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Swat Valley (TA –domestic visitors’ arrivals).The current research is an effort to evaluate the short-term and long-term association between events of terror and domestic visitation. Primary data was collected using stratified random sampling techniques and interview method and secondary data was taken from various sources to evaluate the model. Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model is used to evaluate the data. The ARDL bound test confirms the co-integration between terror incidents and tourism. Additionally, the examined findings undoubtedly ensure the negative short-term and long-term impact of events of terror on domestic tourism in the study area.

scholarly journals Volatility of Regional Sharia Compliance Returns and US News Impact

2018 ◽  
Vol III (I) ◽  
pp. 294-307
Author(s):  
Kashif Hamid ◽  
Rana Shahid Imdad Akash ◽  
Muhammad Mudasar Ghafoor
Keyword(s):  
Bad News ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Good News ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

Investigation of the impact of US News proxy on the returns of regional sharia compliance indices and volatility is the primary aim of this study. The daily data of Dow Jones Islamic index (DJII), Jakarata Islamic Index (JKII), Karachi Meezan Islamic Index (KMI) and Standard & Poor 500 stock index has been taken for the period of July 01, 2013 to June 30, 2018. GARCH (1,1) is extended with US News proxy for KMI, DJII and JKII. US news proxy identifies that leverage effect reveal the long run persistency in volatility. EGARCH (1,1) model indicates that higher volatility has bee also increased by bad news than good news due to leverage effect in sharia compliance returns. This study leads to extend various assets pricing models by modeling the volatility and will also inform the international and regional investors about the new trends of investment in Islamic stock indices and portfolio diversification.

scholarly journals The impact of tourist flows on the sustainable development of a tourist destination

2021 ◽  
Vol 937 (4) ◽  
pp. 042031
Author(s):  
A Kopyrin ◽  
E Vidishcheva
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Additional Data ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The development of the economy’s tourism sector is one of the priority tasks set by the leadership of the Krasnodar Territory and Russian Federation. Thus, the construction of a model of the impact of tourist flows on the sustainability of the destination is very relevant. The authors developed a simulation model of the impact of tourist flows on the sustainable development of destination. The weighted net savings indicator was used as a measure of sustainability. This model can be further used in predicting the development of the studied sector of the economy. Using the developed tool for medium- and long-term planning will provide additional data to decision makers, reducing uncertainty, and thus improving the quality of management. The accuracy of the model is based entirely on publicly available statistics and expert assessments.

scholarly journals Long Term Outcome Prediction in Stemi/Nstemi Patients By Means of the Model Consisting of Simple Clinical Parameters

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 159-170
Author(s):  
Paweł Korczyc ◽  
Jędrzej Chrzanowski ◽  
Arkadiusz Stasiak ◽  
Joanna Stasiak ◽  
Andrzej Bissinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Everyday Practice ◽  
Syntax Score ◽  
Clinical Parameters ◽  
Observation Study ◽  
Cox Regression Model ◽  
Long Term Outcome ◽  
The Impact

Aim: Our study aimed to identify the clinical variables associated with long-term mortality after MI and to construct a simple, easy to use clinical practice model for the prediction of 5 year mortality after MI. Material and Methods: This is a prospective 5-year observation study of MI patients admitted to the Department of Cardiology at the Copernicus Memorial Hospital in Lodz in 2010 and 2011. The data were collected during hospitalization and again after a period of 1 and 5 years. A multi-factor multi-level Cox regression model was constructed to investigate the impact of clinical factors on long-term survival.results: 92 patients (39 STEMI, 53 NSTEMI) were included in the study and their data were used to construct a Cox regression model with satisfactory fit (R 2 =0.7945). Factors associated with a decrease in 5-year risk are: age (1.06, 95%CI: 1.01-1.11), SYNTAX score (1.05, 95%CI: 1.02-1.08), WBC level (1.16, 95%CI: 1.08-1.26), and glycemia at enrollment (1.01, 95%CI: 1.01-1.01). Higher values of HDL at enrollment were associated with a decrease in 5-year risk (HR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.93-0.99).conclusion: The model we created is a valuable tool that is useful and easy to employ in everyday practice for assessing the 5-year prognosis of patients after MI. What is new: The study presents the new model for prediction of 5-year mortality after myocardial infarction. This model is based on simple clinical parameters and may by applied in everyday practice.

scholarly journals A Wavelet-Based Analysis of the Co-Movement between Sukuk Bonds and Shariah Stock Indices in the GCC Region: Implications for Risk Diversification

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samia Nasreen ◽  
Syed Asif Ali Naqvi ◽  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari ◽  
Shawkat Hammoudeh ◽  
Syed Ale Raza Shah
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Time Diversification ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Stock Index Returns

Investors are interested in knowing whether sukuk bonds and shariah stock indices in the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) region are related. This study examines the connectedness between the sukuk- and shariah-compliant stock indices in the GCC financial markets. Bivariate and multivariate wavelet approaches are applied to the daily data covering the period 10 July 2008 to 15 May 2017. The empirical findings demonstrate a strong correlation between these GCC sukuk bond indices and shariah stock indices. The degree of connectedness between these sukuk and shariah stock indices varies across time and scale. A strong and positive association is observed in the short term and a negative association is evident in the long term. The same findings are observed, using the wavelet cohesion approach that also validates the existence of portfolio diversification opportunities at a short-time horizon. The multivariate cross-correlation analysis reveals that these sukuk and shariah stock markets are highly integrated across time and scale. Furthermore, the value at risk (VaR) for the sukuk bond–shariah stocks portfolio is performed to highlight the significance of the wavelet analysis. The outcomes show that portfolio stocks are variable with respect to time or scale (time diversification). Overall, analyzing the sukuk bond–shariah stock index returns in the GCC at a multiscale level makes it easier for financial agents dealing with heterogeneous trading horizons to assess the benefits of diversifications.

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