scholarly journals FOREIGN DEBT, EXPORT DYNAMICS AND THE THIRLWALL’S LAW

2013 ◽  
Vol 71 (281) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Rodríguez-Arana
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Capital Movements ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Export Dynamics ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Robust Result

<strong>I</strong>ndependently of capital movements, the so called Thirlwalls’s Law (Thirlwall, 1979) is theoretically a robust result in the long run. When the rate of growth of exports is equal or greater than the rate of growth of foreign debt, there is a convergence of the domestic rate of growth of Gross Domestic Product (DGP) to the original and simplest Thirlwall’s rate of growth. When, furthermore, the rate of growth of foreign debt is equal or lower than the Thirlwall’s rate of growth, the economy is solvent and the rate of growth of GDP converges to the Thirlwall’s law.

scholarly journals Financial Integration and Growth Volatility Nexus: The Nigeria Experience

Webology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 404-415
Author(s):  
Victor Chukwunweike Ehiedu ◽  
Anthony Ogormegbunan Odita ◽  
Anthony Anyibuofu Kifordu
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Foreign Private Investment ◽  
Growth Volatility

This paper examined empirically financial integration impact on Nigeria economic growth volatility. Specifically, it identified some of the major key variables through which financial integration influence growth volatility in Nigeria. Three research hypotheses were stated from which an empirical model was formulated to link the influence of financial integration using economic output as explained variable and degree of openness, foreign private investment, exchange rate foreign debt as explanatory variables over the period of 1987– 2019. Multiple regression analysis was employed to estimate the relevant variables. In addition, we tested for stationarity and determined long run association between the variables of the models. The work also reconciled the disequilibrium which exists in the short and long run relationships of the variables in the models. The result showed a non-significant degree of openness but positively associated with gross domestic product. Foreign private investment was strongly and statistically significant to gross domestic product. It was therefore recommended that for Nigeria financial sector services to take substantial benefits of broad participation in globalization, the provision of sound macroeconomic policy framework with high degree of certainty of the future of investment is needed.

Financial Deepening, Financial Intermediation and Nigerian Economic Growth: Time Variant Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 60-73
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run

This study examines financial deepening, financial intermediation and Nigerian economic growth. The main purpose is to examine the relationship between financial deepening and Nigerian economic growth while the specific objectives are to examine the impact of interest rate, capital market development, rational savings, credit to private sector and broad money supply on the growth of Nigerian. Secondary data of the variables were sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 1981-2017. Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) was used as dependent variable while Broad money supply (M2), Credit to Private Sector (CPS), National Savings (NS), Capital Market Capitalization (CAMP) and Interest Rate (INTR) was used as independent variables. Multiple regressions with E-view statistical package were used as data analysis techniques. Cointegration test, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Granger causality test was used to determine the relationship between the variable in the long-run and short-run. R2, F – statistics and β Coefficients were used to determine the extent to which the independent variable affects the dependent variable. It was found from the regression result that Broad Money Supply, credit to private sector have position effect on the growth of Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product while National Savings, Capitalization and Interest Rate on Nigeria Real Gross Domestic Product. The co-integration test revealed presence of long-run relationship among the variables, the stationary test indicated stationarity of the variables at level. The Granger Causality Test found bi – variant relationship from the dependent to the independent and from the independent to the dependent variables. The regression summary found 99.0% explained variation, 560.5031, F – statistics and probability of 0.00000. From the above, the study concludes that financial deepening has significant relationships with Nigerian economic growth. We recommend that government and the financial sector operators should make policies that will further deepen the functions of the financial system to enhance Nigerian economic growth.

scholarly journals An analysis of the relationship of inflation and unemployment to the gross domestic product (gdp) in zimbabwe

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 156-162
Author(s):  
Tendai Makoni
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Yearly Data

The time series yearly data for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and unemployment from 1980 to 2012 was used in the study. First difference of the logged data became stationary as suggested by the time series plots. Johansen Maximum Likelihood Cointegration test indicated a long-run relationship among the variables. Granger Causality tests suggested unidirectional causality between inflation and GDP, implying that GDP is Granger caused by inflation in Zimbabwe. Another unidirectional causality was noted between unemployment and inflation. The causality between unemployment and inflation imply that unemployment do affect GDP indirectly since unemployment influences inflation which in turn positively affect GDP.

Analisis Pengaruh Utang terhadap Perekonomian dan Kemiskinan di Indonesia Periode 1949-2017

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Dedi Junaedi ◽  
Muhammad Rizal Arsyad
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
National Income ◽  
National Development ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Population Number ◽  
Better Than

Since  independence,  Indonesia   has   experienced  seven   changes   of   national leadership. Starting from  Soekarno, Soeharto, BJ Habibie, Abdurahman Wahid, Megawati, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), to Joko Widodo. During that time, foreign debt is always present to patch the development budget deficit. Debt is expected to move the wheels of the economy, create growth, create jobs, and alleviate poverty. This study aims  to  analyze  the  effect  of  debt, inflation  and  government regime differences on economic growth and poverty levels in Indonesia, from the Old Order era, the New Order, to the Reform Order. The study used  secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia,  the National  Development  Planning  Agency (Bappenas), the Central  Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the World Bank, and other reference sources such as books, journals and scientific  papers. The data used  are  the value of  foreign debt, national income (Gross Domestic Product / GDP), population,  number and ratio of  the poor, inflation  rate in the period 1949 - 2017. The results  of  multiple  regression analysis  with  dummy variable (using  Eviews 10 application  program) show the  following  results:  Foreign debt has  correlation with  the national economic condition, in particular the value of Indonesian Gross Domestic Product and the level  of poverty. Debt tends to increase the value of GDP and reduce poverty. In terms of debt governance as a driver of the economy and poverty, the Suharto and Habibie Era tend to be different and better than the Sukarno Era. While the debt management of Era Abdurrahman Wahid, Era Megawati, Era SBY and Era Jokowi no different or no better than Era Sukarno. Although  nationally  can increase GDP and reduce poverty, debt can not improve people's prosperity (read per capita income). Foreign debt even tends to reduce the level of welfare of the people. This applies to all government regimes.    

Infrastructural Development

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maniklal Adhikary ◽  
Melisha Khatun
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Data Model ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Panel Data Model ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Internet Users ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Development of infrastructure industries is essential to enhance the growth of a developing country. The present chapter attempts to examine the impact of infrastructure on Gross Domestic Product and Per Capita Gross Domestic Product of six SAARC countries from the period 1990-91 to 2013-14. The model is mis-specified whenever we have used the restricted panel data model. We have derived the results by employing the unrestricted panel data model. Impact of road, internet users and total electricity production on the level of GDP as well as on the level of PCGDP is highest for India among the all SAARC countries. India has also the highest rate of growth of GDP over the entire period. Rate of growth of PCGDP is highest for Sri Lanka followed by India.

scholarly journals Agricultural exports and the growth of agriculture in India

2013 ◽  
Vol 59 (No. 5) ◽  
pp. 211-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Ramphul
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship

The study empirically investigates the causality between agricultural exports and gross domestic product (GDP) agriculture in India using the Granger causality test via Vector Error-Correction Model over the period 1970&ndash;1971 to 2009&ndash;2010. The results of unit-root tests suggest that the series of India&rsquo;s GDP agriculture and farm exports are integrated of order one. The results of the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach to co-integration show that there is a positive and stable long-run equilibrium relationship between India&rsquo;s agricultural exports and GDP of agriculture. We find a unidirectional causal link running from farm exports to gross domestic product of agriculture. It indicates that in India, agricultural products export Granger causes the growth in GDP of agriculture, which supports the export-led growth hypothesis. It is suggested that in order to accelerate the agricultural growth rate in India, there is a need to implement the policies encouraging the agricultural exports. &nbsp;

The Causal Links Between Foreign Direct Investment And Economic Growth In Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najid Ahmad ◽  
Muhammad Farhat Hayat ◽  
Muhammad Luqman ◽  
Shafqat Ullah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Pakistan. The co-integration and error correction model is used to show the relationship between foreign direct investment and gross domestic product in Pakistan. Gross domestic product is taken as dependent variable while foreign direct investment, labor force and domestic capital as independent variables. The results suggest that there is a positive relation between foreign direct investment and gross domestic product in short as well as long run. If we want to make economic progress then there is a need to invite foreign investors because foreign direct investment increases GDP that is economic growth.

scholarly journals An Econometric Assessment of the Impact of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Inflation in Nigeria (1981-2017)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Apeh ◽  
Abubakar Muhammad Auwal ◽  
Nweze Nwaze Obinna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

The present reality of the Nigerian economy is the fact that inflation has remained unabated in spite of all exchange rate measures that have been adopted by the monetary authority. This calls for investigation into the extent to which exchange rate impact on inflation in Nigeria. The research paper examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1981&ndash;2017, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Cointegration Procedure. The research shows that inflation rate in Nigeria is highly susceptible to lagged inflation rate, exchange rate, lagged exchange rate, lagged broad money, and lagged gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. A long run relationship was also found to exist between inflation rate, gross domestic product and general government expenditure, indicating that the model has a self-adjusting mechanism for correcting any deviation of the variables from equilibrium. Therefore, this study concludes that exchange rate is an important tool to manage inflation in the country; thus, this paper recommends that policies that have direct influence on inflation as well as exchange rate policies that would checkmate inflation movement in the country, should be used by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Also, monetary growth and import management policies should be put in place to encourage domestic production of export commodities, which are currently short-supplied. In addition, policy makers should not rely on this instrument totally to control inflation, but should use it as a complement to other macro-economic policies.

scholarly journals The Influence of Sharia Capital Market, Sharia Bonds (Sukuk), and BI Rate on Gross Domestic Products (GDP) in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-162
Author(s):  
Gebi Gita Marsi ◽  
Dyah Titis Kusuma Wardani
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Products

This study aims to determine what affect GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in constant Indonesian prices. The dependent variable used is GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and the independent variables are Islamic stocks, Islamic mutual funds, Islamic bonds (Sukuk), and the BI rate. The data used in this study are monthly during the period 2016: 1-2018: 12 sourced from OJK, BI, and Ministry of Home Affairs. The estimation tool used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using E-views 7.0. Estimation results show that in the short term, the GDP variable (Gross Domestic Product) itself, Islamic stocks, BI rate, and Islamic mutual funds significantly affect GDP (Gross Domestic Product). In the long run, the estimation results show that sharia stock variables and sharia mutual funds have a significant effect on GDP (Gross Domestic Product). While the sharia bond variable (Sukuk) and the BI rate do not significantly affect GDP (Gross Domestic Product). VECM estimation results in this study also produce important Says, namely IRF (Impulse Response Function) and VDC (Variance Decomposition).

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