scholarly journals On the problem of population projections exactness at district level: Example of population projections of Serbia 1970-2000

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 43 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 81-104
Author(s):  
Vladimir Nikitovic
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Small Population ◽  
District Level ◽  
The Other ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Migration Effect ◽  
The Social ◽  
Term Basis

The quality and exactness of population projections is an important issue not only for their numerous users but for all authors of these demographic calculations who try to increase their utility value. The question of the exactness of population projections of smaller territorial entities are especially sensitive and for smaller time periods as well, because such projections are usually used as input parameters for various forms of social planning. The results of the analysis which refers to the best documented set of projections so far of this type and which includes the whole territory of Serbia have been presented in this work. The projections are on the level of municipalities made for a thirty year period, 1970-2000, as a scientific basis of the social plan of SR Serbia. Two different variants had been prepared. One understood the linear continuation of noted tendencies from the projected period, and the other is the result of the hypothesis of the so-called cohort-component method which assumed gradual equaling of fertility namely mortality level among the municipalities within each macro-entity of Serbia, with migrations abstracted. By applying several indicators, based on relative discrepancy of projected total district population from the registered values by census, the projected mistake intensity and direction has been determined. The explication of the origin and formation of measured values had been carried out by analyzing the discrepancies of projected trends of main demographic components in relation to realized demographic development. Within the analysis, the correlation dependency level was tested between the amount of mistakes and factors which were recognized as possible sources of discrepancy. The analysis results confirmed the importance of migration components in projecting populations of smaller territorial units within the country. Although prediction of future migrational balance is connected with the greatest sources of uncertainty in comparison with the other two components of population development, especially on a long-term basis, its abstraction from the projected calculations considerably influences more the exactness of projected results regarding the district level rather than macro-entirety level. The reason lays in the generally more intensive inner-state migrational trends rather than in outer migrations, as well as in the proportionally larger migration effect on small population units in comparison with macro-entireties. One of the basic results of this analysis indicates that the greatest discrepancies of projected results, in relation to realized values, are connected precisely to districts where demographic development of migrational components had their greatest influence.

scholarly journals The Role of Internal Migration in Sustaining Rural Communities in Japan: The Case of Aso City in Kumamoto

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Antonia Miserka
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Social Connectedness ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
The Social ◽  
Permanent Settlement ◽  
Term Basis ◽  
New Residents

AbstractThe shrinking of Japan’s rural areas, caused partly by continuous out-migration of younger people to the major cities, is an amply discussed topic in Japanese society and popular media. Even though a certain trend of counter-urbanisation exists despite larger depopulation patterns, many of these migrants do not stay permanently and therefore cannot contribute to sustaining rural areas in the long term. Previous studies argue that considering each community’s characteristics is important in order to find possible ways to sustain rural areas and attract new residents. Therefore, this study focuses on the case of Aso City, aiming to clarify the criteria that makes migration to Aso City appealing or unappealing, and to identify the factors responsible for enabling (or complicating) the act of permanently settling there. In order to do so, the author conducted a survey in Aso City using semi-structured interviews. While the beauty of the natural surroundings, quality of life, and social connectedness are the main positive qualities of Aso City, its infrastructure, demographic development, and economic situation are assessed more negatively by its residents. Further, this study shows that the better a person’s local social connections upon arrival, the more likely they are to find a place to live and work, and stay on a long-term basis. In order to attract new residents to rural areas and support their permanent settlement, it is important to help them obtain the resources necessary for settling and assist their transition into the social structure of the community.

Scientific basis for managing the transition to sustainability in the Netherlands

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 43-50
Author(s):  
GULMIRA TOLGANBAEVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Transition Management ◽  
Management Styles ◽  
Sustainable Mobility ◽  
Problem Structuring ◽  
Term Change ◽  
The Social

The article analyzes the scientific approaches of Dutch scientists to the problems of managing the transition to sustainable development. Based on the analysis of research in the Netherlands, the author concludes on the methodological dominance of the coevolutionary concept and the theory of complex systems. The transition to sustainable development is seen as coevolutionary social change. Coevolution of sustainable development implies the possibility of transforming the processes of coevolution into a more sustainable way of development. The essence of managing the transition to sustainable development is goal-oriented modulation and directed coordination of all actors involved in this process. Transition management is viewed as a particular form of multilevel governance in which state and non-state actors work together to co-produce and coordinate policies in an iterative and coevolutionary way at different levels. The necessary qualities of such management are adaptability, reflexivity, and coherence of actors’ positions. Adaptive transition management involves the social learning of management actors based on problem structuring and strategic experimentation. Transition management combines elements of long-term planning, elements of incremental market approach, and social network interaction management techniques. Distinctive characteristics of such management are heterarchy, three-tiered structure, and distributed administration. Since transition management is aimed at long-term change of functional systems in a gradual way, with the use of variations and their selection, its implementation is possible in a society whose interests are well organized, and there is no authoritarian management. The considered scientific foundations for managing the transition to sustainable development are used in the Netherlands to manage the transition to sustainable energy, sustainable mobility, sustainable agriculture, sustainable water use, and the transition to biodiversity and natural resources. In Russia and Kazakhstan, it is possible to use this approach to select, organize and structure management styles and tools for managing the transition to sustainable development.

Facing Strangers in Need

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-30
Author(s):  
Nenad Miscevic ◽  
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
The Other ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Psychological Approach ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
The Social ◽  
Decent Life ◽  
The One

What is the role of toleration in the present-day crisis, marked by the inflow of refugees and increase in populism? The seriousness of the crises demands efforts of active toleration, acceptance, and integration of refugees and the like. Active toleration brings with itself a series of very demanding duties, divided into immediate ones involving immediate Samaritan aid to people at our doors and the long-term ones involving their acculturation and possibilities of decent life for them. A cosmopolitan attitude can contribute a lot. In the context of a refugee crisis, cosmopolitanism is not disappearing but showing its non-traditional, more Samaritan face turned not to distant strangers, as the classical one, but towards strangers at our doors.We have conjectured that this work of active toleration can diminish the need for the passive one: the well-integrated immigrant is no longer seen as a strange, exotic person with an incomprehensible and unacceptable attitude, but as one of us so that her attitudes become less irritating and provocative. The social-psychological approach that sees integration as involving both the preservation of central aspects of the original identity and the copy-pasting of the new one over it offers an interesting rationale for the conjecture: once integrated, the former newcomer is perceived as one of ‘us’ and her views stop being exotic, incomprehensible and a priori unacceptable. Given the amount of need for toleration, and difficulties and paradoxes connected with its passive variety, the conjecture, if true, might be a piece of good news.Finally, we have briefly touched the question of deeper causes of the crisis. Once one turns to this question, the traditional cosmopolitan issues come back to the forefront: the deep poverty and unjust distribution on the one hand, and conflicts and wars on the other. Cosmopolitans have a duty to face these issues, and this is where active global toleration leads in our times.

scholarly journals Reflective Understanding

Wisdom ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 176-202
Author(s):  
John Kekes
Keyword(s):  
Critical Evaluation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Other ◽  
Personal Attitude ◽  
The Social ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
Do So

Reflective understanding involves the evaluation of our personal attitude formed of our changing, often faulty, and frequently conflicting beliefs, emotions, desires, experiences, and evaluations. Their evaluation proceeds from two points of view. One is that of our personal attitude. The other is the point of view of the various modes of evaluations that jointly form the evaluative framework of the context in which we live. Both kinds of evaluations may be faulty. Reflective understanding involves the critical evaluation of the reasons for and against the prevailing social evaluations that follow from our personal attitude and of the reasons for and against our personal attitude that follow from the prevailing social evaluations. The test of the adequacy of our personal attitude is our satisfaction with our life. And the test of social evaluations is the continued long-term allegiance of those who follow the social evaluations, although they need not do so.

A Minimal Demographic History of Israel

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio DellaPergola
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Mass Movement ◽  
Jewish People ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
History Of

This chapter surveys the demographic development of Israel/Palestine from antiquity through the present and looking toward the future. Territory and habitability is described regarding changing boundary definitions and internal divisions that have reflected shifting political rule. Population change is examined in the long term, noting the significant historical ups and downs in population size and socioeconomic development. The development of contemporary population in Israel and Palestine reflects large-scale international migration, including mass movement of Jewish and Arab refugees. Variable fertility levels and birth rates have also significantly affected the pace of population growth. Attention is paid to the more recent balance of Jews and Palestinians over the whole territory between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, and an overview is presented of the distribution of world Jewish and Palestinian diasporas. Finally, population projections for the Jewish people, the state of Israel, and the whole territory of Israel/Palestine are presented.

scholarly journals OVERVIEW OF THE TEMPORARY MEASURES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) ACT 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (21) ◽  
pp. 220-227
Author(s):  
Rohana Abdul Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
The Other ◽  
Mediation Process ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Term Basis ◽  
Contractual Obligations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Well Being

The impact of Coronavirus disease has transcended beyond imaginable. Everyone is vulnerable and no one on this planet can safely say that he or she is protected against the deadly virus. All governments are taking immediate steps to address the ensuing repercussion of the pandemic, both on a short-term and long-term basis. Malaysia has passed a law that provides for temporary measures to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the general economic sectors affecting the general economic well-being of the country. This paper explains the provisions of the COVID-19 Act 2020 and the specific other laws that it intends to modify therein. In particular, the paper highlights the establishment of a mediation process in respect of disputes arising from the inability to perform contractual obligations by parties during the pandemic. The paper concurs that COVID-19 Act 2020 attempts to cover quite comprehensive temporary measures to address issues relating to the pandemic and in the process provides validity to the actions taken by various parties before its commencement. On the other hand, the paper argues that several vague and uncertain provisions of the law led to questionable application and implication thus creating doubts as to its effectiveness.

Industrial Parks as Industrial Renewal

2020 ◽  
pp. 159-181
Author(s):  
Robert Lewis
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Public Private Partnerships ◽  
Industrial Park ◽  
Industrial Parks ◽  
Ordered Space ◽  
Term Basis ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Industrial Center

This chapter looks at the other main industrial redevelopment strategy that emerged in the 1960s. It mentions the building of industrial parks in the 1960s and 1970s, such as the Ashland Industrial Center in the deindustrialized Stockyards, that became a failure despite the allocation of significant funds by public–private partnerships. It emphasizes how the institutional fix of the industrial park could not solve the Chicago's manufacturing decline. The chapter refers to industrial areas that consist of many lots managed on a long-term basis by industrial and nonindustrial promoters. It outlines two principles that shaped the development of the industrial park in postwar Chicago: First was modern planning ideas that emerged after 1890 and second was the search for ordered space paralleled by the search for property profits.

Nostalgic neighborhood belongings: Theorizing the interrelationship among nostalgias, belongings and neighborhood changes

2021 ◽  
pp. 003802612110294
Author(s):  
Clément Colin
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Past ◽  
Physical Environments ◽  
The Social ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The One ◽  
Depth Interviews

Depending on one’s socio-territorial contexts, age, and time spent residing in the same place, the spatial-temporal experience of belonging is lived differently. Within this framework, this article looks at perspectives of neighborhood belonging in long-term residents aged 65 years and older. Based on the narratives of 51 people from three neighborhoods of Valparaíso, Chile, who participated in the 2019 workshops and/or in-depth interviews, I identify different types of nostalgic senses of belonging; and examine the social and spatial conditions that influence their formation. From this empirical research, I argue that these belongings are based on daily practices that refer to the past neighborhood and that, at the same time, are embodied in their current materialities. The results show, on the one hand, the role of nostalgia in the formation of a belonging, from the past to the present; and, on the other, the influence of place in these experiences. From the above, this article contributes to the conceptualization of the material dimension of nostalgic belongings and their interrelationships among nostalgias, belongings, and changes in social and physical environments.

Automatic Detection of the Grout Layer of Metro Tunnel by GPR

2014 ◽  
Vol 556-562 ◽  
pp. 2719-2722
Author(s):  
Cun Chang Qin ◽  
Hui Lin Zhou ◽  
Qi Ming Yu ◽  
Xi Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Ground Penetrating Radar ◽  
Automatic Detection ◽  
The Other ◽  
Shield Tunnel ◽  
Jiangxi Province ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Term Basis ◽  
Metro Tunnel ◽  
Ground Penetrating

The grout behind the lining segments have a powerful influence on the long-term basis in shield tunnel construction in gravel sand and round gravel layers. Grouting layer detection in the shield construction is important. Two aspects are usually be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the grout treatment, one is the thickness of the Grouting layer and the other is to determine the presence and distribution of any damage in grouting layer. This study reports on the applications of the ground penetrating radar (GPR) and associated work carried out on Nanchang Metro line 1, Jiangxi province of China. After raw data preprocessing the results of the radar image are used to evaluate the thickness and hidden trouble of the grout layer automatically.

scholarly journals Polska gościnność w świetle zapisów autobiograficznych

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-82
Author(s):  
Dorota Rancew-Sikora
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Social Significance ◽  
Negative Experiences ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Social ◽  
Theoretical Assumptions ◽  
The One ◽  
Conditions Of Stability

The research material included about 300 episodes from 30 published sources. A targeted selection was made according to a combination of three criteria: a diversity of social positions among the authors, the biographies of the authors, and the detail of description. An analysis of the material was conducted in order to contribute to a better understanding of the social significance of hospitality. Theoretical assumptions about hospitality in conditions of stability and social crisis were advanced. The analysis showed that in times of relative stability, hospitality was biographically important when it allowed a person to transition between positions in the social structure (usually between close levels) and involved some form of promotion. On the other hand, in conditions of intensified change and crises, the order was disturbed: on the one hand, visits to the homes of persons occupying more distant positions in the hierarchy (both up and down the social ladder) became more common, but on the other hand, there could be a challenge to or rejection of traditional requirements of hospitality. The first situation occurs especially at the beginning of a crisis, and with the depletion of resources, the increase in the number of negative experiences, and socialization to a long-term threat, a survival strategy begins to take shape in which only the closest circles prevail. Such findings suggest that a more cautious look should be taken at both the theoretical concepts in which hospitality is considered a useful social invention especially in times of increased need and at the Polish self-stereotype as a nation with a culture based on hospitality, invariable generosity, and an inclination to selflessness.

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