Legislative Professionalism and Incumbent Reelection: The Development of Institutional Boundaries

2000 ◽  
Vol 94 (4) ◽  
pp. 859-874 ◽  
Author(s):  
William D. Berry ◽  
Michael B. Berkman ◽  
Stuart Schneiderman
Keyword(s):  
State Legislators ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Economic Forces ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Level Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Institutional Boundaries ◽  
State Legislative

It is well established that legislators from highly professionalized bodies are more likely to win reelection than members of less professionalized legislatures. We find that the effect of professionalization on incumbent electoral success is far more pervasive. As the level of professionalism of a legislature increases, the effects of external political and economic forces (such as coattails from higher level elections and national economic conditions) on a legislator's chances for reelection diminish in strength. This implies that legislative professionalization promotes institutionalization by establishing boundaries that insulate members from external shocks. We reach these conclusions by specifying and testing a district-level model of state legislative election outcomes, using as dependent variable the probability that an incumbent will win reelection. The model is estimated with probit using data for more than 42,000 state legislators from 1970 to 1989.

Cordons sanitaires or tainted coalitions? The electoral consequences of populist participation in government

2021 ◽  
pp. 135406882110265
Author(s):  
Pedro Riera ◽  
Marco Pastor
Keyword(s):  
Strong Support ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Recent Growth ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Using Data

An increasing literature has studied the recent growth of populist parties and the determinants of their electoral success. This article contributes to this body by addressing the question of whether cordon sanitaires or tainted coalitions are more effective at hindering the electoral success of populist parties. Building on the populist parties and cost of governing literatures, we hypothesize that populist parties suffer considerable loses at the ballot box when they join coalition governments as junior partners. Moreover, we test various mechanisms for this negative effect: poor economic conditions, the existence of parliamentary majorities, ideological extremism and low intra-cabinet conflict. Using data from ParlGov and Klüver and Spoon, we find strong support for the main hypothesis, and additional analyses suggest that when populists join coalitions as junior partners they lose extra electoral support if they are ideological extreme, there is low intra-cabinet conflict, or their coalition has a parliamentary majority.

Do Campaign Finance Reforms Insulate Incumbents from Competition? New Evidence from State Legislative Elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 460-464
Author(s):  
Jordan Butcher ◽  
Jeffrey Milyo
Keyword(s):  
Campaign Finance ◽  
State Legislators ◽  
Public Financing ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Independent Expenditures ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
State Legislative ◽  
Over Time

Variations in state campaign finance regulations across states and over time provide an opportunity to test the effects of reforms on the electoral success of incumbent state legislators. We use the most recent state legislative election returns dataset to test whether state campaign finance reforms help or hinder incumbents. Our analysis of nearly 66,000 contests in 33 years reveals that campaign contribution limits and partial public financing have little impact on incumbent reelection prospects. However, full public financing and prohibitions on corporate independent expenditures significantly increase the probability of incumbent reelection.

Special elections in alternative vote electoral systems: Exploring turnout and the vote in Irish by-elections 1923–2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 136914812110457
Author(s):  
Stephen Quinlan
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
Multifaceted Approach ◽  
Decisive Effect ◽  
Members Of Parliament ◽  
Alternative Vote ◽  
National Economic ◽  
The Impact

Most literature on special elections has focused on first-past-the-post contests and on the performance of governments. Turnout, candidates, and how the electoral system impacts the result have received less attention. This contribution fills these voids by exploring special elections in Ireland, elections conducted under the alternative vote system. Taking a multifaceted approach, it investigates the correlates of turnout, the impact of candidates and the decisive effect of lower preferences, while also testing multiple explanations of government performance. I find Irish special elections live up to the by-election truisms of lower turnout and government loss. Government performance is associated with national economic conditions. By-election victory is more likely among candidates with familial lineage and former members of parliament. Where they come into play, one in five candidates owe their victory to lower preferences.

Macro Economic Determinants of Electoral Support for Incumbents in Turkey, 1950–1995

1997 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 75-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alı Çarkoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Economic Determinants ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The Impact

The assertion that economic conditions prevailing during a government's tenure influence the level of electoral support it receives is frequently expressed in Turkey. Despite frequent references to economic dimensions of electoral behavior in Turkish media and academic circles, however, there are only a few systematic analyses of the impact of macro-economic performance on incumbents' electoral success. Bulutay and Yıldırım (1969) and Bulutay (1970) were the first attempts in this direction. These pioneering empirical analyses were mainly descriptive and rely on cross-sectional observations across provinces for the elections between 1950 and 1969. Based solely on developments in the agricultural sector they concluded that economic factors were first among the factors determining election outcomes. Özselçuk (1975) included macro-economic indicators, such as changes in per capita income and prices, in a regression model to explain changes in incumbents' vote share. Özselçuk provided some evidence that incumbents' electoral support was shaped by developments in macro-economic indicators, however, his analyses were technically deficient and his results were poorly documented.

scholarly journals Techniques for assessing the effects of pest hazards on long-run timber supply

1987 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 1455-1465 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Reed ◽  
Darrell Errico
Keyword(s):  
Stand Age ◽  
Harvest Scheduling ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Pest Infestation ◽  
Total Destruction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Land Expectation Value ◽  
Level Model ◽  
Using Data

Stand-level and forest-level models are developed for the purpose of assessing the effects of pest hazards on long-term timber supply. The stand-level model yields formulas for the long-run average yield and the land expectation value when both the risk of infestation by pests and the risk of total destruction by fire are present. Infestations are assumed to occur with a probability dependent upon stand age. A forest-level harvest scheduling procedure of the model II type, which allows for pest infestation and fire destruction, is developed. Numerical examples are given, using data for lodgepole pine in the Quesnel Timber Supply Area of British Columbia, assuming various patterns of infestation by mountain pine bark beetle.

Minority Success in Non-Majority Minority Districts: Finding the “Sweet Spot”

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 275-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lublin ◽  
Lisa Handley ◽  
Thomas L. Brunell ◽  
Bernard Grofman
Keyword(s):  
African American ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Racial Minorities ◽  
Minority Population ◽  
Sweet Spot ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
Minority Candidate ◽  
State Legislative

AbstractThough African-American and Latino electoral success in state legislative and congressional elections continues to occur almost entirely in majority-minority districts, minorities now have new opportunities in districts that are only 40–50% minority. This success can primarily be explained in terms of a curvilinear model that generates a “sweet spot” of maximum likelihood of minority candidate electoral success as a function of minority population share of the district and the proportion of the district that votes Republican. Past racial redistricting legal challenges often focused on cracking concentrated racial minorities to prevent the creation of majority-minority districts. Future lawsuits may also follow in the steps of recent successful court challenges against racially motivated packing that resulted in the reduction of minority population percentage in a previously majority-minority district in order to enhance minority opportunity in an adjacent non-majority-minority district.

scholarly journals What’s Left? Political orientation, economic conditions and incarceration in Greece under Syriza-led government

2020 ◽  
pp. 147737082096656
Author(s):  
Leonidas K. Cheliotis ◽  
Sappho Xenakis
Keyword(s):  
Political Orientation ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
State Punishment ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The One ◽  
Fiscal Implications

An important body of scholarly work has been produced over recent decades to explain variation in levels and patterns of state punishment across and within different countries around the world. Two variables that have curiously evaded systematic attention in this regard are, first, the orientation of incumbent governments along the political spectrum, and second, the experience and fiscal implications of national economic downturn. Although recent years have seen both variables receive somewhat greater consideration, there is still precious little research into the effects on state punishment that they have in interaction with one another. With a view to helping fill this gap in the literature, this article identifies the direction and assesses the extent of influence exerted by government political orientation, on the one hand, and by economic downturn alongside its fiscal repercussions, on the other hand, upon the evolution of incarceration in the context of contemporary Greece. In so doing, we offer a uniquely detailed account of carceral trends before and during the period that a coalition government led by the left-wing Syriza party was in power. With regard to carceral trends as such, the scope of our analysis extends beyond conventional imprisonment also to include immigration detention. As well as arguing that economic downturn can place crucial limits on a government’s ability to execute progressive plans in carceral matters, we additionally conclude that a government’s scope of action in this vein may be further restricted depending on the autonomy it can wield in defiance of foreign forces intervening in both economic and political realms.

Organizational slack, experience, and acquisition behavior across varying economic environments

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (5) ◽  
pp. 967-982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd Alessandri ◽  
Daniele Cerrato ◽  
Donatella Depperu
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Behavioral Theory ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Organizational Slack ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Threat Rigidity ◽  
Using Data

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of the organizational slack and acquisition experience on acquisition behavior across varying environmental conditions. Drawing from behavioral theory and the threat-rigidity hypothesis, the paper explores firm acquisition behavior, in terms of type of acquisitions, before and during the recent economic downturn. Design/methodology/approach – Using data on 385 acquisitions in Italy in the period 2007-2010, the paper tests hypotheses on how organizational slack and acquisition experience influence the likelihood of cross-border and diversifying acquisitions relative to domestic, non-diversifying acquisitions prior to and during the economic downturn. Findings – Results suggest that the availability of financial resources and acquisition experience both have an important influence on acquisition behavior. Firms with greater slack and acquisition experience were more likely to make diversifying and/or cross-border acquisitions, compared to domestic non-diversifying acquisitions, particularly during an economic downturn, than firms with lower levels of slack and acquisition experience. Originality/value – The paper extends behavioral theory and threat-rigidity hypothesis, highlighting their applicability to acquisition behavior across varying economic conditions. Slack resources and acquisition experience appear to be particularly salient during challenging economic times.

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