Short-Term Model Closure and Long-Term Growth

2009 ◽  
pp. 173-198
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Term Model

Abstract 039: Comparison of Costs & Outcomes of Dapagliflozin With Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 Inhibitors Added to Metformin Using a Short-term Cost-effectiveness Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhiroop Chakravarty ◽  
Mohini Rastogi ◽  
Praveen Dhankhar ◽  
Kelly Bell
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Saving ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Short Term ◽  
End Points ◽  
Dipeptidyl Peptidase 4 ◽  
Term Model ◽  
Dipeptidyl Peptidase 4 Inhibitors

Background: Several long-term models have been developed to compare the economic impact of alternative anti-diabetic treatments. However short-term models, based on actual trial data, might give more accurate results and be preferable over long-term models for estimating costs and benefits in short term. Objective: To assess the economic impact of the antidiabetic drug dapagliflozin (DAPA), a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor, and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) combined with metformin in the treatment of T2D. Methods: A short-term decision-analytic model with one year time horizon was developed using a payer’s perspective for United States (US). Costs and benefits associated with four clinical end points (glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c], body weight, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and risk of hypoglycemia) were evaluated in the analysis. A network meta-analysis was utilized to evaluate the impact of DAPA vs. DPP-4i on these clinical end points. Data for costs and QALYs associated with a per unit change in these clinical end points was taken from published literature. Drug prices were taken from annual wholesale price list. All costs were inflation-adjusted to 2016 costs using the medical care component of the consumer price index. Total costs (medical and drug), total QALYs, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed as well. Results from the short-term model were compared with long term models published for these treatments. Results: Total annual medical cost for DAPA was $1,119 less than that for DPP-4i, with the difference mainly attributable to cost associated with weight change ($860). Treatment with DAPA resulted in an average QALY gain of 0.0587 per treated patient compared to DPP-4i. DAPA was cost-saving when compared to DPP-4i. Among all the four clinical end points, change in weight had the greatest impact on total annual costs and ICERs. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that total annual cost for DAPA was less than that for DPP-4i in more than 97% of simulations and DAPA had a 97% probability of being cost-saving compared with DPP-4i. Results from the short-term model were similar to published long term models. Conclusions: Our analysis showed that DAPA was cost saving when compared with DPP-4i in the US setting. Furthermore, the results suggest that among the four composite clinical endpoints, change in weight had greater impact on cost-effectiveness results. In addition, our short-term model provides results similar to published long term models.

scholarly journals Analysis of Ziswaf, Production Index and Sharia Stock Index on Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-242
Author(s):  
Purbawati Setyaningsih ◽  
Roikhan Mochamad Aziz ◽  
Puji Hadiyati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Term Model ◽  
Long Run

This study analyzes the influence ZISWAF, Gini ratio, the total export value, the index of industrial production, sharia stock index investment to GDP growth, in the short and long term. Qualitative data were taken from BPS, Baznas, ACT Global Waqf, the FSA from March 2006 until December 2017 using the methodology of The Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the variable Gini Ratio, Ziswaf, Total exports, Production Index and Sharia Stock Index on GDP economic growth have significant and positive effects in the long term and the short term. Meaning that these variables have a relationship with GDP economic growth. If the variable decreases or slows down-then GDP economic growth also. While total exports have insignificant effects and negative effects on GDP economic growth. The R-square regression value of the long-term model produces a proportion of 96 percent, the short-term model produces a proportion of 97 percent. Both in the long-run and short-run models, the highest coefficient value is the value of the Gini ratio with 4.941522 and 0.348043. All positive coefficients, Gini ratio variables, ziswaf and production index have a significant effect on gdp, total exports and sharia stock indexes do not have a significant effect on gdp both in the long and short-term models. It implies in the future, fiscal economic policy makers to economic growth that opened a lot of employment, by encouraging resource based economic activities of Indonesia's largest export-oriented agriculture and mining. Good Corporate goverment should do so gini ratio of the areas surrounding the economy improved and people kesejahtaeraan increase.

Short-Term and Long-Term Mechanical Models of Wellbores Considering Cement Consolidation and Formation Creep

SPE Journal ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (05) ◽  
pp. 2064-2082
Author(s):  
Wenjun Huang ◽  
Deli Gao ◽  
Yinghua Liu
Keyword(s):  
Governing Equation ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Coupling Effect ◽  
Superposition Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Consolidation Process ◽  
Term Model ◽  
Initial Strains ◽  
Wellbore Failure

Summary With oil and gas wells extending deeper and deeper, downhole conditions become increasingly complicated, and thus increasingly sophisticated wellbore models are needed. Current wellbore models usually neglect the coupling effect in the cement–consolidation process and do not sufficiently consider the whole operation process of the wellbore. To overcome these shortcomings, short–term and long–term mechanical wellbore models while considering the relevant stages in wellbore life are built. In the short–term model, wellbore–operation stages include casing running, cement displacement, and cement consolidation. The governing equation of cement consolidation while considering the coupling effect between cement hardening and volume change is presented. In the long–term model, the governing equation of formation creep while considering prestresses and initial strains is given. The elastic/viscoelastic–correspondence principle and stress–superposition method are used to simplify the derivation. Next, the effects of relevant factors on short–term and long–term wellbore stresses are analyzed. The results show that wellbore stresses caused by cement consolidation will be underestimated when the coupling effects are neglected. The most vulnerable positions for wellbore failure are on different cylinder elements under different wellbore stages. Wellbore properties, short–term stresses, and formation creep greatly affect wellbore mechanical behaviors. Therefore, the new model provides an important basis for wellbore–failure prediction and optimal design.

PENGARUH TINGKAT BUNGA DAN PENDAPATAN NASIONAL TERHADAP TABUNGAN DI INDONESIA, MALAYSIA DAN THAILAND

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-102
Author(s):  
Lumadya Adi ◽  
Wiwik Budiarti
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
National Income ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Term Model ◽  
Partial Adjustment Model ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Independent Variable

 The purpose of the study: 1 Testing the effect of interest rates in the short term and the long-term domestic savings in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. 2 Testing the influence of national income in the short term and the long-term domestic savings in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Analysis tool is a dynamic econometric model of the Partial Adjustment Model (PAM). This model applies when the independent variable is the lag of the dependent variable and must be positive and  statistically significant. The results of the analysis as follows:  1. For Indonesia, short-term and long-term national income significantly influence domestic savings  2. For Indonesia, the short-term and long-term interest rate has no significant effect on domestic savings.  3. For Malaysia, the national income in the short term a significant effect on domestic savings, but can not be used long-term model.  4. For Malaysia, the short-term interest rates have a significant effect on domestic savings, but can not be used long-term model.  5. For Thailand, in the short-term and long-term national income no significant effect on domestic savings. 6. For Thailand, in the short term and long term interest rates have a significant effect on domestic savings.

scholarly journals Temperature dependence of coastal wetland ecosystem respiration confounded by tidal activities: a temporal perspective

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 4515-4537 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Xie ◽  
M.-Q. Zhang ◽  
B. Zhao ◽  
H.-Q. Guo
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Temperature Sensitivity ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Ecosystem Respiration ◽  
Tidal Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Confounding Effect ◽  
Hydrological Condition ◽  
Term Model

Abstract. Variations of temperature and hydrological conditions result in the fluctuation of ecosystem respiration (ER). Temperature sensitivity is widely used to describe ER-temperature relationship, but hydrological condition with similar dynamics as temperature could cause confounding effect. Many researchers have made comparisons between long-term and short-term models to show the confounding effect. However, how temperature sensitivity is confounded by hydrological condition in different time scales remains unknown. In this study, data from two coastal wetland sites were used. By comparing the variations of temperature and tidal influence at three time scales (monthly, seasonal and half-yearly), we found that: (1) the co-variation of temperature and other environmental factors accounted for the long-term confounding effect, and (2) the small variances of temperature in short time scale explained the short-term confounding effect. As a result of the long-term confounding effect, greater system errors were introduced in long-term model than short-term did. As the temperature sensitivity derived from long-term "ignored" the alternation of main driving factor of ER, temperature influence on ER was overestimated while the tidal influence was underestimated. Tidal activities had great influences on ER when the variances of temperature were small. If short-term model without tidal effect was applied, short-term confounding effect was inevitable. Compared to the long-term model (half-yearly), short-term model (monthly without tidal effect) performed better that helped reduce the long-term confounding effect, and integrating a proper secondary factor like tide would further reduce the short-term confounding effect.

Conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) supports core claims of Christiansen and Chater

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary C. Potter
Keyword(s):  
Working Memory ◽  
Rapid Serial Visual Presentation ◽  
Language Comprehension ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Visual Presentation ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Use Of Knowledge

AbstractRapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of words or pictured scenes provides evidence for a large-capacity conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) that momentarily provides rich associated material from long-term memory, permitting rapid chunking (Potter 1993; 2009; 2012). In perception of scenes as well as language comprehension, we make use of knowledge that briefly exceeds the supposed limits of working memory.

Ultrastructural investigations of MDL 19,660-induced effects on the canine platelet and megakaryocyte

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 374-375
Author(s):  
D.E. Loudy ◽  
J. Sprinkle-Cavallo ◽  
J.T. Yarrington ◽  
F.Y. Thompson ◽  
J.P. Gibson
Keyword(s):  
Antidepressant Drug ◽  
Beagle Dogs ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Platelet Counts ◽  
Toxicological Studies ◽  
Induced Aggregation ◽  
Internal Architecture

Previous short term toxicological studies of one to two weeks duration have demonstrated that MDL 19,660 (5-(4-chlorophenyl)-2,4-dihydro-2,4-dimethyl-3Hl, 2,4-triazole-3-thione), an antidepressant drug, causes a dose-related thrombocytopenia in dogs. Platelet counts started to decline after two days of dosing with 30 mg/kg/day and continued to decrease to their lowest levels by 5-7 days. The loss in platelets was primarily of the small discoid subpopulation. In vitro studies have also indicated that MDL 19,660: does not spontaneously aggregate canine platelets and has moderate antiaggregating properties by inhibiting ADP-induced aggregation. The objectives of the present investigation of MDL 19,660 were to evaluate ultrastructurally long term effects on platelet internal architecture and changes in subpopulations of platelets and megakaryocytes.Nine male and nine female beagle dogs were divided equally into three groups and were administered orally 0, 15, or 30 mg/kg/day of MDL 19,660 for three months. Compared to a control platelet range of 353,000- 452,000/μl, a doserelated thrombocytopenia reached a maximum severity of an average of 135,000/μl for the 15 mg/kg/day dogs after two weeks and 81,000/μl for the 30 mg/kg/day dogs after one week.

Comparison of Auditory, Language, Memory, and Attention Abilities in Children With and Without Listening Difficulties

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 710-727
Author(s):  
Beula M. Magimairaj ◽  
Naveen K. Nagaraj ◽  
Alexander V. Sergeev ◽  
Natalie J. Benafield
Keyword(s):  
Auditory Processing ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Group Differences ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Significant Group ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Memory And Attention ◽  
Speed And Accuracy

Objectives School-age children with and without parent-reported listening difficulties (LiD) were compared on auditory processing, language, memory, and attention abilities. The objective was to extend what is known so far in the literature about children with LiD by using multiple measures and selective novel measures across the above areas. Design Twenty-six children who were reported by their parents as having LiD and 26 age-matched typically developing children completed clinical tests of auditory processing and multiple measures of language, attention, and memory. All children had normal-range pure-tone hearing thresholds bilaterally. Group differences were examined. Results In addition to significantly poorer speech-perception-in-noise scores, children with LiD had reduced speed and accuracy of word retrieval from long-term memory, poorer short-term memory, sentence recall, and inferencing ability. Statistically significant group differences were of moderate effect size; however, standard test scores of children with LiD were not clinically poor. No statistically significant group differences were observed in attention, working memory capacity, vocabulary, and nonverbal IQ. Conclusions Mild signal-to-noise ratio loss, as reflected by the group mean of children with LiD, supported the children's functional listening problems. In addition, children's relative weakness in select areas of language performance, short-term memory, and long-term memory lexical retrieval speed and accuracy added to previous research on evidence-based areas that need to be evaluated in children with LiD who almost always have heterogenous profiles. Importantly, the functional difficulties faced by children with LiD in relation to their test results indicated, to some extent, that commonly used assessments may not be adequately capturing the children's listening challenges. Supplemental Material https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.12808607

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