PENGARUH TINGKAT BUNGA DAN PENDAPATAN NASIONAL TERHADAP TABUNGAN DI INDONESIA, MALAYSIA DAN THAILAND

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-102
Author(s):  
Lumadya Adi ◽  
Wiwik Budiarti
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
National Income ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Term Model ◽  
Partial Adjustment Model ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Independent Variable

 The purpose of the study: 1 Testing the effect of interest rates in the short term and the long-term domestic savings in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. 2 Testing the influence of national income in the short term and the long-term domestic savings in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Analysis tool is a dynamic econometric model of the Partial Adjustment Model (PAM). This model applies when the independent variable is the lag of the dependent variable and must be positive and  statistically significant. The results of the analysis as follows:  1. For Indonesia, short-term and long-term national income significantly influence domestic savings  2. For Indonesia, the short-term and long-term interest rate has no significant effect on domestic savings.  3. For Malaysia, the national income in the short term a significant effect on domestic savings, but can not be used long-term model.  4. For Malaysia, the short-term interest rates have a significant effect on domestic savings, but can not be used long-term model.  5. For Thailand, in the short-term and long-term national income no significant effect on domestic savings. 6. For Thailand, in the short term and long term interest rates have a significant effect on domestic savings.

scholarly journals Perilaku Investasi di Indonesia: Kajian Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daru Wahyuni
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
National Income ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Elasticity Coefficient ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Government

The purpose of this research was to know how domestic investment in Indonesia behaves both in the short term and in the long term. Data used were secondary data obtained from various sources. Those data would be analyzed by using a dynamic analysis tool consisted of a cointegration approach and an error correction model.Several findings obtained from this research were (1) ECT coefficient (4.16) significantly and  statistically influenced domestic investment in Indonesia. It indicated that the error correction model used in this research was valid. (2) In the short term, national income variables and domestic interest rates did not significantly affect domestic investment while government investment variables and rate of exchange positively and significantly influenced domestic investment. Elasticity coefficient of the government investment and the exchange rate were –1.44 and 2.34 respectively. (3) By concerning time lag factor, the estimation results showed that the national incomes, the domestic interest rates, the government investment , and  exchange rate of rupiah against US dollar in the previous 1 year significantly affected domestic investment. Their elasticity  were 2.18, -1.18, -2.18 and 1.26 respectively. (4) In the long term, the national income variables and the exchange rate of rupiah against US dollar positively and significantly influenced domestic investment  meanwhile the domestic interest rate variables and the government investment did not significantly influence domestic investment. The elasticity coefficient of the national income and  exchange rate were 3.08 and –2.19 respectively.

scholarly journals ANALISIS MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA INDONESIA (MELALUI PENDEKATAN MONETER)

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Novri Candra ◽  
Idris Idris ◽  
Selli Nelonda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
National Income ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aimed to analyze the change in foreign exchange reserves which are affected by the state of national income, exchange rates, interest rates and inflation. This study was conducted to see the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable in the long term and short term. The method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study shows that the long-term effects of the variables national income and the exchange rate has a significant positive effect on foreign exchange reserves, while in the short term have a negative effect but not significant. Variable interest rates on long-term have a positive effect but not significant and in the short term have a significant negative effect on foreign exchange reserves. Variable inflation in the long term and short term no significant effect on the foreign exchange reserves. Results Error Correction Term (ECT) in this study amounted to 1,065, which means that in the short-term foreign exchange reserves will undergo considerable change and requires quite a long time to come back into balance.Keyword : Reserves, National Income, Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and Inflation ECM, ECT

scholarly journals THE ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN CONVENTIONAL AND SHARIA AGAINST INFLATION IN INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julika Rahma Siagian
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Short Term

This study aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Indonesia in controlling inflation, both in terms of sharia and conventional terms. The data used in this empirical study is time series data during 2011:1-2017:4 originating from (Bank Indonesia), Financial Services Authority (FSA) and Ministry of Finance (Kemenkue). The analysis tool used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study analyzes the relationship between independent and dependent variables both in the short and long term. The results of this study throuht the asset prices indicate that from conventional monetary variable SBI (certifikat of bank indonesia) variables that have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Where as in the long term the variable money supply has a positive effect and variable interest rates on Bank Indonesia, bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation. In Islamic monetary variables, SBIS have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Islamic bond variables (Sukuk) have a negative and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. While in the long-term the variable money supply, Islamic interest rates, and Islamic bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation.

scholarly journals THE ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN CONVENTIONAL AND SHARIA AGAINST INFLATION IN INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Julika Rahma Siagian
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Short Term

This study aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Indonesia in controlling inflation, both in terms of sharia and conventional terms. The data used in this empirical study is time series data during 2011:1-2017:4 originating from (Bank Indonesia), Financial Services Authority (FSA) and Ministry of Finance (Kemenkue). The analysis tool used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study analyzes the relationship between independent and dependent variables both in the short and long term. The results of this study throuht the asset prices indicate that from conventional monetary variable SBI (certifikat of bank indonesia) variables that have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Where as in the long term the variable money supply has a positive effect and variable interest rates on Bank Indonesia, bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation. In Islamic monetary variables, SBIS have a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. Islamic bond variables (Sukuk) have a negative and significant effect on inflation in the short-term. While in the long-term the variable money supply, Islamic interest rates, and Islamic bonds have a positive and significant effect on inflation.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH PENDAPATAN NASIONAL DAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP PENGHIMPUNAN DANA PIHAK KETIGA PADA BANK UMUM DI INDONESIA

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 261
Author(s):  
Khoirunnisa’ Arrohmah ◽  
Aries Soelistyo
Keyword(s):  
National Income ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
The Third ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Partial Adjustment Model ◽  
The Third Party ◽  
Party Funding

The principal problem of this study are associated with the Indonesian economy which needs to be improved, therefore Government could increase through improved and increased banks' performance by increasing the national income, where the banking, especially commercial banks at the core of the financial system of State. The method used in this study is multiple linear regression partial adjustment model (Partial Adjustement Model) that is useful to observe the response of short-term and long-term variable from one unit change in the value of independent variables. From the analysis results obtained equation is LSt = β0 + β1LYt + β2 Lrt + β3 LSt-1 + μt. The results showed that the model free from the classical assumption of multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation. As for all significant independent variables simultaneously on the third party funding variables, this suggests that the third party funding increase is influenced by many factors could be shown the results of the regression is calculated for 679.8788 F <F table at 2.48. And partially variable interest rate not significantly affect the third party funding.

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amado Peirό
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Us ◽  
Production Prices ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the US. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates the existence of strong comovements in prices and long-term interest rates, and, to a lesser degree, in GDP and short-term interest rates. They are, however, rather unstable over time.

scholarly journals Journal of the History of Economic Thought Preprints - Limits to Arbitrage and Interest Rates: A Debate Between Keynes, Hawtrey and Hicks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy BRILLANT
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
History Of Economic Thought ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Business Cycle

This paper deals with a debate between Hawtrey, Hicks and Keynes concerning the capacity of the central bank to influence the short-term and the long-term rates of interest. Both Hawtrey and Keynes considered the central bank’s ability to influence short-term rates of interest. However, they do not put the same emphasis on the study of the long-term rates of interest. According to Keynes, long-term rates are influenced by future expected short-term rates (1930, 1936), whereas for Hawtrey (1932, 1937, 1938), long-term rates are more dependent on the business cycle. Short-term rates do not have much effect on long-term rates according to Hawtrey. In 1939, Hicks enters the controversy, giving credit to both Hawtrey’s and Keynes’s theories, and also introducing limits to the operations of arbitrage. He thus presented a nuanced view.

scholarly journals PENGARUH LIBERALISASI ARUS MODAL TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI ASEAN-5

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-354
Author(s):  
Devilia Sitorus ◽  
Crisanty Sutristyaningtyas Titik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Financial Openness ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Adjustment Model ◽  
Partial Adjustment Model ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aims to examine the relationship between capital flow liberalization and economic growth in ASEAN-5. This research is a quantitative study that uses data: GDP, Gross Capital Formation, financial disclosure seen from the Chinn-Ito index for the period 2000-2017 in 5 ASEAN countries namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Data were processed using panel data regression analysis and specifically for Indonesia, Partial Adjustment Model (PAM) regression was performed. The results of this study indicate that financial openness seen from the Chinn-Ito index has a negative and significant influence on the economic growth of ASEAN-5 countries. Capital flows have a positive and significant impact on the economic growth of ASEAN-5 countries. Meanwhile, the PAM (Partial Adjustment Model) regression model shows that capital flows have a positive and significant influence on Indonesia's economic growth both in the short and long term, while financial openness has a negative and significant impact on Indonesia's economic growth both in the short and long term.

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