Disclaiming the Future: Investigating the Impact of Cautionary Disclaimers on Investor Judgments Before and After Experiencing Economic Loss

2017 ◽  
Vol 93 (4) ◽  
pp. 81-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Scott Asay ◽  
Jeffrey Hales
Keyword(s):  
Economic Loss ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Safe Harbor ◽  
Nonprofessional Investors ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Investor Judgments ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Forward Looking

ABSTRACT We examine how cautionary disclaimers about forward-looking statements affect investor judgments both before making an investment and after having suffered an investment loss. In our first experiment, a cautionary disclaimer appears to effectively communicate to nonprofessional investors that forward-looking statements may not be reliable, but we find little evidence that the disclaimer alters the extent to which forward-looking statements influence nonprofessional investors' valuation judgments. In our second experiment, we shift our focus to ex post judgments and find that the disclaimer influences the extent to which investors feel wronged and entitled to compensation after an investment loss, consistent with investors attending to the disclaimer and acting as if it were, ex ante, effective. Notably, investors continue to feel more wronged and entitled to financial compensation when available evidence suggests that management knowingly issued false or misleading forward-looking statements—even if disclaimed. Together, these results provide support for recent judicial efforts to erode the sweeping safe harbor provisions currently granted to companies. Data Availability: Contact the authors.

scholarly journals Some Issues in the Measurement of Profit Accountants versus Economists

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Zubair Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Work ◽  
Growth Efficiency ◽  
The Other ◽  
Focal Points ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Theoretical View ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reconciliation Process ◽  
Forward Looking

This paper discusses a topic rarely addressed in the literature on profit theory over the decades. In empirical work on subjects like growth, efficiency and welfare in mainstream or Islamic economics business profits at times appear as one of the determinants. Such studies perforce use profit data reported in the accounting records. This data is invariably at variance in important ways with the economists’ theoretical view of profit. The cause of divergence is the cosmopolitan forward looking ex ante view of entrepreneurism the economists take in the matter as opposed to the narrow conservative ex post focus of the accountants needed to protect the interest of business proprietors who pay them for the job. There is a need to narrow this gap to improve the results of empirical explorations. This paper identifies and examines some issues like maintenance of capital, evaluation of inventories and the impact of conservatism as causes of divergence as focal points for reducing the gap. It concludes that the economists are obliged more to take cognizance of accounting compulsions than the other way round in the reconciliation process.

scholarly journals The Demerger Impact upon Sustainable Development of Economic Entities: Evidence from Romania

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8316
Author(s):  
Camelia Mirela Baba ◽  
Constantin Duguleană ◽  
Marius Sorin Dincă ◽  
Liliana Duguleană ◽  
Gheorghița Dincă
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Business Strategies ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Profitability Ratios ◽  
Positive Effect

The Covid-19 induced economic crisis has significantly affected almost all businesses from nearly every sector, causing severe financial problems, lack of cash assets, and decrease of revenues. In this context, the economic entities were forced to look for adjustment and rescue solutions of their activities. One possible solution for the recovery and reorganization of economic entities’ activities is demerger. This paper evaluates the impact of demerger upon the sustainable development of economic entities in terms of economic efficiency and financial performances. To achieve this goal, a statistical analysis of profitability ratios before and after the demerger, as well as a structural analysis of 268 demerger projects for the April 2012–April 2021 period, were performed. The results attest there are no significant differences between the ex-ante and ex-post financial performances. However, demerger seems to have a positive effect upon analyzed companies helping them to overcome economic hardships, rethink their business strategies, and continue their activity in the medium and long-term time horizon.

scholarly journals Evaluación de dos perturbaciones simultáneas en bosques de Araucaria-Lenga, usando diferencias de índices espectrales

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 5-18
Author(s):  
Marco Antonio Peña ◽  
Patricio Calderón
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Index ◽  
The State ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Southern Andes ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Composition And Structure ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Land Covers ◽  
The Impact

This study assessed the impact produced by a wildfire and an infectious outbreak led by an oomycete pseudofungi, both occurred in 2015, on the state of Araucaria-Lenga forests of the China Muerta Reserve, placed in the southern Andes of Chile. To do this, a greenness vegetation spectral index was calculated over a multitemporal set of Landsat-8 images, acquired biannually on near-anniversary dates, which was subject to subtractions between ex-ante (2013) and ex-post dates (2015, 2017, 2019). Results show the magnitude and temporal progression of both disturbances, highlighting the celerity and aggressiveness of the wildfire. Although the affected vegetation land covers currently show values close to the recovery of the primal biomass, the inclusion of field-based data to deepen the possible composition and structure variations of these forests is needed.

The impact of guaranteed bailout assistance on bank loan overstatement

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-210
Author(s):  
Alejandro Hazera ◽  
Carmen Quirvan ◽  
Salvador Marin-Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the basic binomial option pricing model (BOPM) might be used by regulators to help formulate rules, prior to financial crisis, that help prevent loan overstatement by banks in emerging market economies undergoing financial crises. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on the theory of soft budget constraints (SBC) to construct a simple model in which banks overstate loans to minimize losses. The model is used to illustrate how guarantees of bailout assistance (BA) (to banks) by crisis stricken countries’ financial authorities may encourage banks to overstate loans and delay the implementation of IFRS for loan valuation. However, the model also illustrates how promises of BA may be depicted as binomial put options which provide banks with the option of either: reporting loan values on poor projects accurately and receiving the loans’ liquidation values; or, overstating loans and receiving the guaranteed BA. An illustration is also provided of how authorities may use this representation to help minimize bank loan overstatement in periods of financial crisis. In order to provide an illustration of how the option value of binomial assistance may evolve during a financial crisis, the model is generalized to the Mexican financial crisis of the late 1990s. During this period, Mexican authorities’ guarantees of BA to the nation’s largest banks encouraged those institutions to overstate loans and delay the implementation of (previously adopted) international “best practices” based loan valuation standards. Findings – Application of the model to the Mexican financial crisis provides evidence that, in spite of Mexico’s “official” 1997 adoption of international “best accounting practices” for banks, “iron clad” guarantees of BA by the country’s financial authorities to Mexico’s largest banks provided those institutions with an incentive to knowingly overstate loans in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Research limitations/implications – The model is compared against only one country in which the BA was directly infused into banks’ loan portfolios. Thus, as conceived, it is directly applicable to crisis countries in which the bailout took this form. However, the many quantitative variations of SBC models as well as recent studies which have applied the binomial model to other forms of bailout (e.g. direct purchases of bank shares by authorities) suggest that the model could be modified to accommodate different bailout scenarios. Practical implications – The model and application show that guaranteed BA can be viewed as a put option and that ex-ante regulatory policies based on the correct valuation of the BA as a binomial option might prevent banks from overstating loans. Social implications – Use of the binomial or similar approaches to valuing BA may help regulators to determine the level of BA that will not encourage banks to overstate the value of their loans. Originality/value – Recent research has used the BOPM to value, on an ex-post basis, the BA which appears on the balance sheet of institutions which have been rescued. However, little research has advocated the use of this type of model to help prevent, on an ex-ante basis, the overstatement of loans on poor projects.

scholarly journals Determinants of Farmers’ Decisions on Risk Coping Strategies in Rural West Java

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Dadang Jainal Mutaqin
Keyword(s):  
Coping Strategies ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
West Java ◽  
Capita Expenditure ◽  
Disaster Experience ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Coping

The impact of natural hazards on agriculture in Indonesia is becoming increasingly severe. Therefore, improving farmers’ capacity to undertake risk coping strategies is essential to maintaining their prosperity. The objective of this study was to investigate the determinants of farmers’ decisions on ex ante and ex post coping strategies in rural West Java, Indonesia. The study was based on a field survey of 180 farmers conducted in the Garut district from July to October 2017. The study used the protection motivation theory framework and applied three econometric models: binomial logit model, zero truncated Poisson regression model, and multinomial logit model. Most farmers (74.4%) adopted ex ante coping strategies. They were characterized as having higher risk aversion per capita expenditure and disaster experience, but lower discount rates and percentage of damage and locations in downstream and midstream areas. Coping appraisal perceptions were found to be important factors in the risk coping analysis. Four determinants of the decision on the number of ex ante coping strategies adopted were: per capita expenditure, land size, disaster experience, and access to financial institutions. The most common ex post coping strategy adopted by farmers was the middle-stress type.

The Effects of Increased Book-Tax Difference Tax Return Disclosures on Firm Valuation and Behavior

2011 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P. Donohoe ◽  
Gary A. McGill
Keyword(s):  
Structural Break ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Tax Compliance ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Real Effects ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Study Techniques ◽  
And Behavior

ABSTRACT We use event study techniques to gauge market participants' ex ante perceptions regarding the benefits and burdens of the Schedule M-3, and structural break analysis to investigate whether managers make ex ante or ex post changes in book-tax differences as a result of this mandatory change in federal tax return disclosures. We find evidence suggesting investors believe ex ante the substantial increase in book-tax difference disclosures will increase future tax burdens and/or tax-compliance costs. Investors also appear to believe the M-3 may be more costly for firms having the types of book-tax differences that attract additional IRS scrutiny (e.g., discretionary permanent differences) and when such firms are weakly monitored. Further, we find evidence of a substantial reduction in our proxy for discretionary permanent book-tax differences prior and subsequent to the implementation of the M-3 and other regulatory events, suggesting both ex ante and ex post real effects on firm behavior. JEL Classifications: G14; H25; H26; M48. Data Availability: Data used in this study are available from public sources identified in the paper.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KEBIJAKAN PUBLIK DALAM PEMERIKSAAN KINERJA

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Denny Wahyu Sendjaja ◽  
Gregorius Yorrie Rismanto ◽  
Nico Andrianto
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Policy Cycle ◽  
Literature Study ◽  
Governance System ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Public Policy Analysis ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Performance Audit

One of issues in performance audit is what method to be used if auditor wants to gain understanding of policies underlying entity’s activities. This study aims to provide an understanding regarding policy cycle and its development; to describe the relationship between governance system, understanding of public policy and performance audit; and to develop framework and scope of public policy analysis in the performance audit. The study prepared by Tim Litbang BPK using literature study, enriched by discussions with speakers from Vrije Universiteit, as well as field trips to ARK and other government entities inNetherlands. Furthermore, the team developed initial information and analysed i t using ISSAI 3000 perspective. Based on policydevelopment cycle, team has developed a framework for public policy analysis on performance audit. The study concluded that ideal entity’s performance evaluation would be to assess the policy before and after the policy implementation (ex-ante and ex-post). Ideally, performance audit over policy is held by entity other than the policy’s subject itself. BPK meets the criteria.KEYWORDSpolicy, performance audit, ex-ante, ex-postABSTRAKSalah satu isu dalam pemeriksaan kinerja yang memiliki urgensi tinggi yaitu metode apakah yang dapat digunakan pemeriksa untuk mendapatkan pemahaman atas kebijakan yang melatarbelakangi kegiatan utama entitas. Analisis kebijakan publik dalam pemeriksaan kinerja ini bertujuan untuk memberikan pemahaman khususnya mengenai siklus kebijakan dan pengembangannya; menjelaskan hubungan sistem tata kelola pemerintahan, pemahaman kebijakan publik dan pemeriksaan kinerja; serta mengembangkan kerangka kerja dan menjelaskan cakupan analisis kebijakan publik dalam pemeriksaan kinerja. Kajian ini disusun oleh Tim Litbang BPK dengan menggunakan studi literatur mengenai teori-teori kebijakan publik, diskusi dengan nara sumber dari Vrije Universiteit, serta kunjungan lapangan ke Algemene Rekenkamer (ARK) dan beberapa entitas pemerintah lainnya di Belanda. Selanjutnya, Tim mengembangkan informasi awal tersebut serta menganalisisnya dengan mempertimbangkan perspektif ISSAI 3000 Performance Audit Guidelines. Dengan menggunakan siklus pengembangan kebijakan, Tim telah menyusun kerangka kerja analisis kebijakan publik dalam pemeriksaan kinerja. Hasil kajian menyimpulkan bahwa penilaian kinerja entitas yang ideal adalah dengan mengukur suatu kebijakan pada tahap sebelum dan sesudah pelaksanaan kebijakan (ex-ante dan ex-post). Pemeriksaan atas kinerja suatu kebijakan pada tahap ex-ante dan ex-post (kecuali produk kebijakan itu sendiri) secara ideal dilakukan oleh entitas pengendali yang bukan merupakan subjek kebijakan itu sendiri. BPK sebagai badan pemeriksa eksternal pemerintah memenuhi syarat tersebut.KATA KUNCIkebijakan, pemeriksaan kinerja, ex-ante, ex-post

scholarly journals Integrating ESG Analysis into Smart Beta Strategies

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 9351
Author(s):  
Federica Ielasi ◽  
Paolo Ceccherini ◽  
Pietro Zito
Keyword(s):  
Investment Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Portfolio Rebalancing ◽  
A Value ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Smart Beta ◽  
Increase In Risk

Smart beta strategy is an increasingly frequent approach to investment analysis for portfolio selection and optimization and it can be combined with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations. In order to verify the impact of the integration between ESG and smart beta analysis, first we apply a portfolio rebalancing based on ESG scores on securities selected according to different smart beta strategies (ex-post ESG rebalancing approach). Secondly, we apply different smart beta approaches to sustainable portfolios, screened according to the issuers’ ESG scores (ex-ante ESG screening approach). We find that ESG rebalancing and screening are able to impact both on return and risk statistics, but with a different level of efficiency for each smart beta strategy. ESG rebalancing proves to be particularly efficient when it is applied to a “Value” portfolio. On the other hand, when smart beta is applied to ESG-screened portfolios, “Growth” is the strategy which shows the highest increase in risk-adjusted performance, particularly in the US. Minimum volatility proves to be the most efficient smart beta strategy for sustainable portfolios. In general, the increase in the level of sustainability does not deteriorate the risk-adjusted performances of most smart beta strategies.

The effect of lodging tax increases on US destinations

2019 ◽  
pp. 135481661989075 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Hudson ◽  
Fang Meng ◽  
Kevin Kam Fung So ◽  
Scott Smith ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Daily Rate ◽  
States Data ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City ◽  
Room Time

This study examined the impact of lodging tax increases on eight different destinations of the United States. Data were collected via in-depth stakeholder interviews and monthly statistics provided by Smith Travel Research including average daily rate, occupancy, and revenue per available room. Time series analysis was employed to estimate the impact of tax increases in each destination by analyzing that time series before and after the imposition of the tax. Overall, our results did not fully support the hypothesis that when a city’s hotel tax greatly increases above that of an easily accessible competitor, it will result in an economic loss to the city with the disproportionate tax rates. Hotels appear to have absorbed any tax increases with little impact to their businesses, but there was concern among stakeholders as to how the lodging tax was spent.

The Impact of Superior-Subordinate Identity and ex post Discretionary Goal Adjustment on Subordinate Expectancy of Reward and Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Burt ◽  
Theresa Libby ◽  
Adam Presslee
Keyword(s):  
Social Connectedness ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
High Identity ◽  
Subordinate Performance ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Goal Adjustment ◽  
Uncontrollable Event ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Firms often evaluate subordinate performance relative to a difficult but attainable goal set at the beginning of the evaluation period. For many, a mechanism exists by which these goals may be adjusted downward at the end of the period to account for an uncontrollable negative event. We examine, experimentally, how the knowledge that a downward ex post discretionary goal adjustment is possible affects subordinates' expectancy of reward and performance in periods where a negative uncontrollable event occurs, and whether high identity, defined as high perceived social connectedness between the superior and subordinate, moderates this effect. We find that high superior-subordinate identity can offset the otherwise negative impact of the potential for downward ex post discretionary goal adjustment on subordinates' expectancy of reward and performance. Thus, creating an organizational culture that promotes identity between superiors and subordinates can complement incentive-based controls in motivating subordinate performance. JEL Classifications: C91; J33; M41; M52. Data Availability: Please contact the authors.

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