scholarly journals PROYEKSI STOKASTIK PRODUKSI PADI DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Agnesya Dwitia ◽  
Agus Hudoyo ◽  
Adia Nugraha
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
The Self ◽  
Staple Food ◽  
Probability Level ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
The Government

Rice is the staple food for Indonesian people and Indonesia was in self-sufficiency for rice in 1984. Based on the Agricultural Ministry’s Strategic Planning for 2015 – 2019, the government targeted that the self-sufficiency in rice in 2019 by 82,078 million tons of the rice production. It is better that the production is stochastically forecasted in form of the interval of projection possibility with the certain probability level. Therefore, the objective of this research is to know the growth of rice production and to stochastically forecast it. The data used in this research is the production of rice in the period of 1961 – 2015 obtained from the Food  and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), Indonesia. The research data is analyzed by econometric method. The result revealed that the rice production would be 77,487 million tons in 2019 and it was 95% confidence interval would be between 74,901 and 80,071 million tons. The growth rate of the rice production in 2018 – 2020  would be 0.6 percent per year. We could conclude that the government target of the rice production was higher than the result of stochastic forecasting.Key words: forecast, paddy, production

scholarly journals Światowy rynek nasion oleistych i produktów ich przerobu

2018 ◽  
Vol 18(33) (1) ◽  
pp. 214-223
Author(s):  
Ewa Rosiak
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
The World ◽  
America South

The article presents changes that have occurred in the global production, consumption and trade of oilseeds and their processing products in the 21st century. The analysis of changes was carried out for the six main regions of the world (Africa, Asia, North America, South America, Europe and Oceania) based on the data of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (EUROSTAT), which were aggregated to the average from 2001-2004, 2005-2007, 2008-2010 and 2011-2013. In the 21st century, the global production and consumption of oilseeds, vegetable oils and oil pellets is growing dynamically in the wake of the growing global demand for food and renewable energy, while the regional growth rate is diversified. The international turnover of these products is also growing, but the geographical directions of trade do not change significantly due to the lack of significant changes in self-sufficiency in the field of oilseeds and their processing products in derivatives regions of the world.

scholarly journals Analysis of Rice Imports in Indonesia: AIDS approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agus Widarjono
Keyword(s):  
Rice Production ◽  
Demand System ◽  
Staple Food ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
System Method ◽  
Rice Consumption ◽  
Expenditure Elasticity ◽  
Normal Goods ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up

Rice is a staple food for Indonesian households. After achieving self-sufficiency of rice in 1984, Indonesia still had to import rice because the domestic rice consumption always exceeded the domestic rice production.  This study attempts to analyze a rice import during the 1998-2014 period. The rice import was analyzed based on the main partner of Indonesian rice imports encompassing of Vietnam, Thailand, USA, Other countries. This research applied the demand system method using Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). The results indicate that price elasticity of rice import from Vietnam and Thailand was inelastic while from other countries, they were elastic. Based on the expenditure elasticity of rice import, rice is the normal goods for rice import from Thailand and USA. The policy simulation shows that the increase in the price of rice import leads to the decrease of rice import.  However, rice import from certain countries such as Thailand still increase. Rice is the staple food, therefore, the government must set up policy to increase domestic rice production for reducing dependency on rice imports.

To the Empire and Beyond

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory A. Barton
Keyword(s):  
Second World War ◽  
World War ◽  
Chemical Fertilizers ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
Organic Farmers ◽  
Southern Rhodesia ◽  
The Government ◽  
Second World

This chapter traces the expansion of industrial agricultural methods after the Second World War. Western governments and the Food and Agriculture Organization pushed for increased use of chemical fertilizers to aid development and resist Soviet encroachment. Meanwhile small groups of organic farmers and gardeners adopted Howard’s methods in the Anglo-sphere and elsewhere in the world. European movements paralleled these efforts and absorbed the basic principles of the Indore Method. British parliament debated the merits of organic farming, but Howard failed to persuade the government to adopt his policies. Southern Rhodesia, however, did implement his ideas in law. Desiccation theory aided his attempts in South Africa and elsewhere, and Louise Howard, after Albert’s death, kept alive a wide network of activists with her publications.

scholarly journals The Contribution of Chicken Products’ Export to Economic Growth: Evidence from China, the United States, and Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 5253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaowei Wen ◽  
Lin Li ◽  
Sangluo Sun ◽  
Qinying He ◽  
Fu-Sheng Tsai
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Export ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship

As a core industry of the national economy, there is no doubt that the agricultural sector has to adapt to the new economic development. In the literature, many researchers have agreed that agricultural export is an important factor affecting economic growth. This paper explores the contribution of chicken products’ export to economic growth and the causal relationship between them. Based on the data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and World Bank between 1980 and 2016, this paper describes and compares the characteristics of chicken products’ export trade of China, the United States, and Brazil. By applying the co-integration analysis, we find that there is no significant long-term equilibrium relationship between chicken products’ export and economic growth rate in China, the United States, or Brazil. However, the growth rate of chicken products’ export significantly promotes the economic growth rate for the United States. Besides, for both China and the United States, the direct pull degree (an estimator quantifying the degree of agricultural products’ exports in stimulating economic growth) of chicken products’ export is relatively small and less volatile. Yet, the direct pull degree of China is 14 times that of the United States, and the contribution to the economic growth rate of the United States is 8 times that of China. Both the direct pull degree and economic growth contribution of chicken products’ export of Brazil fluctuates more often, and its direct pull degree is 0.25 times that of China, and the economic contributions to the growth rate is 1.65 times that of China.

scholarly journals Food Security: Self–Sufficiency of Rice in Malaysia

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatimah Mohamed Arshad ◽  
Emmy Farha Alias ◽  
Kusairi Mohd Noh ◽  
Muhammad Tasrif
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Optimum Productivity ◽  
The Government

Malaysia’s stance on food security is largely translated in terms of achieving self-sufficiency in rice production at about 65-70% of the local consumption. Since Malaysia does not have the comparative advantage in rice production, it implements a wide range of market interventions to achieve the intended level of rice production. The policy instruments include among others: guaranteed minimum price for paddy, price control, price and input subsidies and import monopoly. These interventionist instruments may not be sustainable in the long-term as they incur a high budgetary burden to the government, misallocation of resources and liberalization demand from WTO. The industry faces challenges in terms of land competition for urbanization and industrial uses and declining soil fertility due to heavy use of chemical fertilizer. This paper examines the influence of the fertilizer and the cash subsidies, as well as land conversion and fertility on the level of self-sufficiency in rice. A system dynamics model is applied to analyse the causal and feedback relationships of these variables in the paddy production system framework. The study shows that Malaysia may not be able to sustain the targeted self-sufficiency level without adequate R&D to address the production constraints particularly below-optimum productivity and the threats of climate change. The consumption of rice on the other hand continues to rise due to the increase in population.   Keywords: Paddy and rice, Malaysia, system dynamics, policy analysis.

scholarly journals Implementation Of The K-Means Cluster Algorithm In Rice Production Mapping And As A Decision Support For Agricultural Function Transition

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
Wahyu Wijaya Widiyanto ◽  
Fendy Nugroho ◽  
Kusrini Kusrini
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Clustering Techniques ◽  
Productivity Data ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
Group Data ◽  
Waterfall Model

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 2014 Indonesia ranked 3rd with a total rice production of 70.6 million tons, but it still remains a rice importing country. As one of the districts known as rice barn, Sukoharjo is targeted to continue to increase crop productivity every year to keep up with the growing population, so it is necessary to know areas with less optimal yields, and minimize changes in agricultural land use change. A mapping method for harvest results is needed to group data in each region based on the similarity of harvest data. In data mining, clustering techniques are known that can be used to map harvest productivity data based on their similarity. This study applies clustering techniques using the KMeans algorithm to map rice harvest productivity data by dividing data into 3 groups, namely many, medium, and less. The research method used is SDLC (Software Development Life Cycle) with a waterfall model. The K-Means algorithm is implemented using website-based programming to map harvest productivity data using attributes of planting area and rice production. The results of the mapping are visualized into a recommendation of agricultural land clustering and agricultural products as well as one of the decision makers in the transfer of agricultural functions so that subdistricts that have a lot of productivity, are moderate and lacking based on the characteristics of the data

scholarly journals Dinamika Program dan Kebijakan Peningkatan Produksi Padi

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Wahyuni ◽  
Kurnia Suci Indraningsih
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
El Nino ◽  
System Development ◽  
Farming System ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Government

<strong>English</strong><br />Rice Production Enhancement Programs (P4) is consistently carried out by the government to meet domestic demand for rice. This paper describes dynamics of P4 implementation, namely their strengths and weaknesses. There were 11 programs launched, beginning with Central Rice Program (Padi Sentra) in 1958 up to Special Intensification (Insus) in 1979 with highest achievement of rice self sufficiency in 1984. Insus was improved in 1987 and it was then called as Supra Insus. In 1990 rice production was stagnant and rice import tended to enlarge. Rice Based Farming System with Agribusiness Orientation (SUTPA), Agribusiness Oriented Intensification (Inbis), and Self Reliance Movement on Rice, Corn, and Soybean (Gema Palagung) programs were introduced to anticipate changing domestic and international circumstances. El Nino took place when the programs were carried out triggering delay of harvest seasons and low production. At last, paradigm of agricultural development was improved through system development and agribusiness oriented, namely corporate farming as the starting point of on-going Integrated Crops and Resources Management (PTT) program. To induce the farmers nationwide to adopt technologies immediately the government copes with many constraints. It is suggested that the generated technologies are packed in sociodrama before disseminated intensively through various mass media, especially television.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Untuk mencukupi kebutuhan beras, pemerintah terus mengupayakan program peningkatan produksi padi (P4) melalui berbagai kebijakan. Tulisan ini mengemukakan dinamika P4 yang telah diimplementasikan dengan menganalisis kelemahan dan kekuatan suatu program. Tujuan penulisan untuk memperoleh opsi kebijakan P4 mendatang. Ada sebelas program yang telah diluncurkan, diawali dengan Program Padi Sentra (1958) hingga lahir Intensivikasi Khusus (1979) yang berhasil meraih swasembada beras (1984). Tahun 1987 Insus disempurnakan menjadi Supra Insus. Tahun 1990 produksi padi cenderung stagnan, import beras terus meningkat. Untuk merespon berbagai perubahan lingkungan internasional dan domesik diimplementasikan program Sistem Usahatani Berbasis Padi Berorientasi Agribisnis (SUTPA), Intensifikasi yang Berwawasan Agribisnis (Inbis) dan Gema Palagung. Saat program dalam implementasi terjadi El-Nino yang menyebabkan panen mundur dan produksi rendah. Akhirnya dilakukan pembenahan paradigma dalam pengembangan pertanian yaitu mutlak berbasis pengembangan sistem dan berorientasi agribisnis, yaitu usahatani korporasi yang selanjutnya menjadi dasar dalam program Pengelolaan Tanaman dan Sumberdaya Terpadu (PTT) yang sedang diuji. Selalu ditemukan kendala dalam menyebarluaskan teknologi yang telah dihasilkan dalam skala luas agar cepat diadopsi petani. Diusulkan agar teknologi yang telah dihasilkan dikemas dalam sosiodrama kemudian disebarluaskan secara intensif melalui berbagai media terutama televisi.

An Overview of Illegal Logging Situation in Peninsular Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 24-30
Author(s):  
Iqtie Qamar Laila Mohd Gani ◽  
Razak Wahab ◽  
Mohd Sukhairi Mat Rasat
Keyword(s):  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Illegal Logging ◽  
Tropical Timber ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Food And Agriculture Organization ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

The trends of illegal logging and current situation of illegal logging in Peninsular Malaysia were studies. Data and information from year 2001 to 2010 on volume of log productions (m3) and volume of illegal log productions were collected from the government and private sectors such as the Forestry Department Peninsular Malaysia (FDPM), International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The data obtained were statistically analyzed using the correlation analysis to determine the direction and the strength of the relationship between log productions and illegal log productions. The results showed that the trends of illegal logging are on the increased. Eighteen percents (18%) of the logs cut annually are obtained from illegal operation. The log productions and illegal log productions resulted have a weak negative relationship as r = -0.271, p = 0.603 and do not significantly related. The illegal log productions are inversely related with the log productions. It can be concluded that the log productions in Peninsular Malaysia occurred in a small scale and the situation is under control. Proper long-term planning needs to be generated and implemented to prevent the problem from becoming worse.

Rice in the Time of Sugar

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis A. Pérez Jr.
Keyword(s):  
Rice Production ◽  
Cuban Revolution ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Sugar Trade ◽  
The Face ◽  
History Of ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
The Government ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
The U.S

How did Cuba’s long-established sugar trade result in the development of an agriculture that benefited consumers abroad at the dire expense of Cubans at home? In this history of Cuba, Louis A. Pérez proposes a new Cuban counterpoint: rice, a staple central to the island’s cuisine, and sugar, which dominated an export economy 150 years in the making. In the dynamic between the two, dependency on food imports—a signal feature of the Cuban economy—was set in place. Cuban efforts to diversify the economy through expanded rice production were met with keen resistance by U.S. rice producers, who were as reliant on the Cuban market as sugar growers were on the U.S. market. U.S. growers prepared to retaliate by cutting the sugar quota in a struggle to control Cuban rice markets. Pérez’s chronicle culminates in the 1950s, a period of deepening revolutionary tensions on the island, as U.S. rice producers and their allies in Congress clashed with Cuban producers supported by the government of Fulgencio Batista. U.S. interests prevailed—a success, Pérez argues, that contributed to undermining Batista’s capacity to govern. Cuba’s inability to develop self-sufficiency in rice production persists long after the triumph of the Cuban revolution. Cuba continues to import rice, but, in the face of the U.S. embargo, mainly from Asia. U.S. rice growers wait impatiently to recover the Cuban market.

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