scholarly journals ANALISIS TRANSPORTASI UDARA, KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN, NILAI TUKAR DAN KESEMPATAN KERJA DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN VECM

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Miya Pertiwi ◽  
Alpon Satrianto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Air Transportation ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aims to identify and analyze responses between air transportation, tourist visits, exchange rates and employment opportunities in Indonesia. This type of research is descriptive and associative, where the data used are secondary data in the form of time series from 2000 fourth quarter to 2018 fourth quarter. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method through the analysis of block causality test, Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) to seeing the variability response of an endogenous variable due to the presence of other endogenous variables. The results of this study indicate that: (1) Variability of air transportation is not contributed by the shock of tourist visits, exchange rates and employment opportunities in the short term, but in the long run, variability of air transportation is contributed by shock of tourist visits, exchange rates and employment opportunities. (2) Variability of tourist visits is only influenced by short-term air transportation shock. Whereas air transportation, exchange rates and employment opportunities in the long run contribute to influencing the variability of tourist visits in Indonesia. (3) Exchange rate variability is contributed by air transportation shock, tourist visits and work opportunities in the short and long term. (4) Variability of employment opportunities is contributed by air transportation shock, tourist visits and exchange rates in the short and long term in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Modeling The Relationships Between Export, Import, Inflation, Interest Rate, and Rupiah Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Nina Valentika ◽  
Vivi Iswanti Nursyirwan ◽  
Ilmadi Ilmadi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Long Run

This research was a modification of research by Catalbas (2016) and Pratikto (2012). The model that can separate long-term and short-term components are the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). This study aimed to model export, import, inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate using VECM and to test the causality between variables using the Granger Causality test. The inter-variable model obtained in this study was VECM with lag 2 using a deterministic trend with the assumption of none intercept no trend and two cointegrations. In export and import, there was an adjustment mechanism from the short-term to the long-term. This research model was appropriate to forecast the export and import where VECM with export and import as the target variables, the cointegration equation (long-run model) for  cointegration equation (long-run model) for Based on the Granger Causality test, it was found that there was a one-way relationship between exchange rates and inflation, export and interest rates, export and import, inflation and export, and import and the interest rate at the significance level of 5%.

scholarly journals PENGARUH NON PERFORMING FINANCING, CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO, BEBAN OPERASIONAL PENDAPATAN OPERASIONAL DAN NET IMBALAN TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS (STUDI PADA BANK MAYBANK SYARIAH PERIODE 2012-2019)

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-93
Author(s):  
Lely Awintasari ◽  
Maulida Nurhidayati
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
Short And Long Term

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of Non Performing Financing (NPF), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Operating Expenses operating income (BOPO) and Net Rewards (NI) ratio on Return On Assets of Maybank Syariah Bank. A bank's Return on Assets (ROA) is a ratio that shows the bank's success in making a profit. If the ROA obtained by a small bank as a result of the bank can suffer losses and hinder the growth of the bank. This research is a type of quantitative research with Error Correction Model method with a significance rate of 5%, with a total of 32 samples in the form of quarterly data published by Bank Maybank Syariah in 2012-2019. The findings in this study are that NPF negatively affects ROA in the short term but NPF has no effect on ROA in the long run. CAR has no effect on ROA in the short term but CAR has a positive effect on ROA in the long run. BOPO in the short and long term negatively affects ROA. NI in the short and long term has no effect on ROA. Simultaneously NPF, CAR, BOPO and NI both short-term and long-term affect ROA simultaneously. The amount of influence exerted in the short term is 89.20% while in the long term it is 88.57%. In order to increase ROA, Maybank Syariah Bank as much as possible to reduce the percentage of NPF and BOPO and can increase the CAR owned. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh rasio kuangan Non Performing Financing (NPF), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Beban Operasional Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO) dan Net Imbalan (NI) terhadap  Return On Assets Bank Maybank Syariah. Return on Assets (ROA) suatu bank merupakan rasio yang menunjukkan keberhasilan bank dalam menghasilkan keuntungan. Apabila ROA yang diperoleh bank kecil akibatnya bank dapat mengalami kerugian serta menghambat pertumbuhan bank tersebut. Penelitian ini berjenis penelitian kuantitatif dengan metode Error Correction Model dengan tingkat signifikansi 5%, dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 32 yang berupa data triwulan yang dipublikasikan oleh Bank Maybank Syariah tahun 2012-2019. Temuan pada penelitian ini adalah NPF berpengaruh negatif pada ROA dalam jangka pendek tetapi NPF tidak berpengaruh pada ROA dalam jangka panjang. CAR tidak berpengaruh pada ROA pada jangka pendek namun CAR berpengaruh positif terhadap ROA dalam jangka panjang. BOPO dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh negatif pada ROA. NI dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang tidak berpengaruh pada ROA. Secara simultan NPF, CAR, BOPO dan NI baik jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh terhadap ROA secara simultan. Besarnya pengaruh yang diberikan pada jangka pendek adalah 89,20% sedangkan pada jangka panjang sebesar 88,57%. Untuk dapat meningkatkan ROA, Bank Maybank Syariah sebisa mungkin untuk menurunkan persentase NPF dan BOPO serta dapat meningkatkan CAR yang dimiliki.

scholarly journals An econometric modelling of the savings – investments nexus for Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-56
Author(s):  
Samuel Asuamah Yeboah ◽  
◽  
Boateng Kwadwo Prempeh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Break ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Predictive Test ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Introduction. The problem under discussion is whether savings are associated with investments in the long-term and whether savings predict investment with feedback or not. Addressing the problem is important since it informs policy formulation in the financial sector in ensuring efficient financial intermediation. The purpose of the article is looks at the savings-investment relationship for Ghana during the period 1960 to 2016. Methodology. Utilizing ARDL (with bounds testing) approach, the Granger predictive test, the Generalised Impulse Response Function, and Variance decomposition function. Results. The results indicate that a 1% increase in savings, GDP and financial development would result in a 0.069%, 0.266% and 0.125% increase respectively in investment in the short-term. It is discovered that savings do not cause investment in the long-run but rather in the short-run. The Granger causality test establishes a unidirectional causality running from savings to investment in the short-run. Discussion and Conclusion. The ramifications of the finding are that there is capital fixed status globally. Future examinations ought to consider structural break(s) issues as well as panel analysis to determine if the findings of the current study would be reproduced.

The Effects of Exchange Rate on Export Performance in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
pp. 47-67
Author(s):  
Haroub Hamad Omar ◽  
Nildag Basak Ceylan ◽  
Ayhan Kapusuzoglu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Foreign Demand ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Exchange Rate Level

The chapter analyzes the effects of exchange rate of Tanzanian shilling on the country's exports performance applying Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model covering the sample period from 1993:Q1 to 2016:Q4. Cointegration and causality tests are performed to investigate the short- and long-term relationships between the variables to evaluate the financial competition. The results show that; there is no long-term relationship (cointegration) between exchange rates and exports and between foreign demand and exports. Moreover, the results of causality test show no short-term relationship (causality) between exchange rates and exports and between foreign demand and exports. As the findings suggest, the exchange rate level of Tanzanian shilling (in nominal terms) does not statistic-significantly affect the country's exports performance.

scholarly journals PENGARUH KEKUATAN PASAR TERHADAP KECUKUPAN MODAL PADA BANK KONVENSIONAL DAN SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
Yussi Ananda ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Dewi Zaini Putri
Keyword(s):  
Market Power ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Market ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Conventional Banks

This study aims to find out how the Influence of Market Power on Capital Adequacy in Conventional and Islamic Banks in Indonesia in the long and short term. The data used are secondary data in the form of time series from 2006: Q1 to 2016: Q4, with documentation data collection techniques and library studies obtained from relevant institutions and agencies. The variables used are Market Power, Deposits, Capital, Inflation and Economic Growth. The research methods used are: (1) Error Correction Model (ECM) Analysis, (2) Classical Assumption Test. The results of the study show that (1) Short-term paths of Conventional Bank Market Power are higher than Islamic banks. This means that in the short term the Konvensionsal Bank dominates the banking market in Indonesia. While in the long run Market Power in Islamic Banks is higher than Conventional Banks. So Islamic banks in the long run dominate the banking market in Indonesia. (2) In the short term and long term deposits at Conventional Banks are higher compared to Islamic Banks. So conventional banks in the short and long term can collect more banking funds in Indonesia. (3) In the short and long term capital in Islamic banks is higher than conventional banks. So Islamic banks in the short and long term dominate banking capital in Indonesia. (4) In the short and long term, inflation in conventional banks is higher compared to Islamic banks. So it can be said that conventional banks in the short and long term are influenced by inflationary shocks in Indonesia. (5) In the short-term and long-term economic growth in Islamic banks is higher than conventional banks. So it can be said that Islamic banks in the short and long term are influenced by the high and low level of Indonesia's economic growth.Keywords: Market Power, Capital Adequacy, Conventional and IslamicBanks, and Error Correction Model (ECM).

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Daouda Coulibaly ◽  
Fulgence Zran Goueu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between exports and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire. In order to achieve this objective, annual data for the period 1960-2017 were tested by using the cointegration approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith, including the causality test of Breitung and Schreiber. According to our analysis it is only exports that drive economic growth and not the opposite. Exports act positively and significantly on economic growth in the short term as well as in the long term. The causality test of Breitung and schreiber indicates a one-way long-run causal relationship ranging from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). All those results show that exports are a source of Ivorian economic growth.

scholarly journals The impacts of public investment on private investment and economic growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Canh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Lua Thi Trinh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Sector ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess both short and long-term influences of public investment on economic growth and test the hypothesis that whether public investment promotes or demotes private investment in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the approach of autoregressive distributed lag model and Vietnam’s macro data in the period of 1990-2016, to evaluate the short and long-term effects of public investment on economic growth and private investment. The model evaluates the impact of public investment on economic growth and private investment based on the neoclassical theories. The public investment which strongly affects economic growth is also reflected by aggregate supply and demand. Public investment directly impacts aggregate demand as a government expenditure and aggregate supply as a production function (capital factor). Findings The results from this research indicate that public investment in Vietnam in the past period does affect economic growth in the pattern of an inverted-U shape as of Barro (1990), with positive effects mostly occurring from the second year and negative effects of constraining long-term growth. Meanwhile, investment from the private sector, state-owned enterprises, and FDI has positive effects on short-term economic growth and state-owned capital stock has positive impacts on economic growth in both the short and long run. The estimated influence of public investment on private investment also shows a similar inverted-U shape in which public investment have crowding-in private investment short-term but crowding-out in the long run. Practical implications The empirical findings in this study can be used for conducting a more efficient policy in restructuring the state sector investment in Vietnam. Originality/value The main contributions in this study are: to evaluate the impacts of public investment on economic growth and private investment, the authors extracted public investment in infrastructure from aggregate investment of state sector (as previous studies used); the authors also uses state-owned capital stock variable including cumulative public investment and state-owned enterprises investment suggesting that this could control for the different orders of integration between the stock and flow variable and improve the experimental characteristics of the equation to a higher degree.

scholarly journals HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS KEMISKINAN, TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI SULAWESI SELATAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
Akhmad Akhmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Economic development basically aims to increase economic growth, reduce poverty and unemployment. Therefore the research aims to find out the causal relationship between economic growth, unemployment and poverty in the Southern Province. This research used panel data of 24 districts / cities in South Sulawesi Province during 2007 to 2018, which was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. Data were then analyzed using Vector Autoregression analysis. The results showed that shocks to economic growth have an impact on reducing unemployment and poverty rates both short and long term. Meanwhile shocks to unemployment, have an impact on increasing poverty rates in the short and long term, and have an impact on declining economic growth in the short term, but slowly economic growth returns to the balance point. Furthermore, the shock to poverty also has an impact on increasing unemployment in the short term, but slowly leads to a point of convergence in the long run. It is better to make economic growth decrease in the short term, but slowly towards the point of balance in the long run.

scholarly journals PENGARUH NPF, BOPO, GDP DAN SBIS TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN ASET PERBANKAN SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Nadhiera Ahya Dhiba ◽  
Lavlimatria Esya
Keyword(s):  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Operating Cost ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Term Behavior

<em>This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the growth of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia in the short and long term. <em>This study uses monthly secondary data from 2012 to 2016. The analytical model used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The advantages of this model can explain short-term and long-term behavior. <em>The results showed the Non-Performing Financing (NPF) variable in the short term had a negative and significant relationship while in the long run it had a negative and not significant relationship to the growth of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) variable in the short and long term has a positive and not significant relationship to the growth of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia. Operating Cost Variable to Operating Income (BOPO) in the short and long term has a positive and not significant relationship to the growth of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia. Indonesian Islamic Bank Certificate Variables (SBIS) in the short term have a positive and significant relationship while in the long run have a positive and not significant relationship to the growth of Islamic banking assets in Indonesia.</em></em></em>

scholarly journals International Application Model Short-Long Term Between GDP and Consumption : Case Study Indonesia

ECONOMICS ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-90
Author(s):  
Teguh Sugiarto ◽  
Ludiro Madu ◽  
Ahmad Subagyo ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

SUMMARY More recently, significant fluctuations in the Indonesian economy justify the need to pay more attention to this issue. In this case, the main purpose of this research is to know the relationship between two issues related to Indonesian macro economy called consumption and GDP for data period during 1967 until 2014. This study investigates the relationship between GDP variables and Indonesian consumption consumption variables using the test ARDL, cointegration and Granger causality. The result of the research can be concluded that, there is long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and consumption with long-term ARDL model, 10% change of consumption will produce long-term change of 44% in GDP. It is not surprising that there is no short-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and consumption. 10% of consumption will result in a short-term ARDL model change of 95% in GDP. The variables and consumption of GDP are cointegrated in the long run significantly at lag interval 10, whereas the use of lag interval 1 and 5 is not credited in the long run. Using a cointegration test with lag interval 1, 5 and 10 indicates significant for all usage slowness. So it can be summarized in the context of GDP and coordinated short-term economic consumption for all the prevailing interval lags. concluded that long-term causality test results between GDP variables and significant consumption with time intervals 5 and 10. intervals 1, 15 and 20 have no long-term causality relationship between GDP variables and consumption variables. a short-term causal model. With lagging intervals of 1, 5, 10 and 15, there is a short-term causal relationship between the variable GDP and consumption. As for the use of delay interval 20 there is no causal relationship in the short term between the variable GDP and consumption in Indonesia.

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