The Effects of Exchange Rate on Export Performance in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
pp. 47-67
Author(s):  
Haroub Hamad Omar ◽  
Nildag Basak Ceylan ◽  
Ayhan Kapusuzoglu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Foreign Demand ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Exchange Rate Level

The chapter analyzes the effects of exchange rate of Tanzanian shilling on the country's exports performance applying Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model covering the sample period from 1993:Q1 to 2016:Q4. Cointegration and causality tests are performed to investigate the short- and long-term relationships between the variables to evaluate the financial competition. The results show that; there is no long-term relationship (cointegration) between exchange rates and exports and between foreign demand and exports. Moreover, the results of causality test show no short-term relationship (causality) between exchange rates and exports and between foreign demand and exports. As the findings suggest, the exchange rate level of Tanzanian shilling (in nominal terms) does not statistic-significantly affect the country's exports performance.

scholarly journals Determining a Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Study on Eurasia

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bekir Elmas ◽  
Ömer Esen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The stock price has a close relationship with some macroeconomic variables. As examples of the main macroeconomic variables can be shown that exchange rates, inflation, interest rate, growth rates. This paper empirically examined the relationship between the local stock market indexes and exchange rate (USD) in six Eurasian countries namely Turkey, Germany, France, Netherlands, Russia, France and India. The paper set out by testing existence of a long-term relationship between considered two variables using the Engle-Granger (1987), Johansen (1988, 1995) and Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration methods. Results of Engle- Granger cointegration test showed that there is no cointegration linkage between two variables under consideration. Furthermore, The Johansen cointegration test found that there is a long-term relationship between two variables (variables in the two countries). Under the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VEC (Vector Error Correction) models appllied the Granger causality test, revealed an unidirectional casual relationship between two variables in each of the six countries. In addition as regards the relationship While there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from exchange rate to stock market for four countries. However this relation is casual running from stock market to exchange rate for other two countries. According to the direction of the relationship these results that relationship between stock prices and exchange rate in four countries supports for the “Traditional Approach”. Furthermore, this relation also supports for the “Portfolio Approach” for other two countries.

scholarly journals Revealing asymmetric spillover effects in hazelnut, gasoline, and exchange rate markets in Turkey: The VECM-BEKK-MGARCH approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-5
Author(s):  
Emine Askan ◽  
Faruk Urak ◽  
Abdulbaki Bilgic
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
The Other ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Exchange Rate Markets ◽  
Two Sectors

The study used the VECM-BEKK-MGARCH method to model the volatility transmission between the markets of gasoline, exchange rates, and the hazelnut market for the period of 21.07.2005-20.3.2018. The suitability of the VECM-BEKK-MGARCH method was confirmed by statistical testing. The changes in hazelnut prices were not affected by the changes in the prices or final values in the other two sectors (Granger causality). Moreover, the Granger causality tests revealed that, while the change in the gasoline market was not affected by the other two markets, the change in the exchange rates market was affected by the other two markets. Furthermore, especially the volatilities (long-term uncertainties) of the markets were affected by both their own short- and long-term volatilities and other sectors? short- and long-term volatilities. It was shown that the long-term swings in these three markets were affected by the cross-interaction in the markets. Additionally, as opposed to the case in the positive news, it was observed that pieces of negative news about the markets affected the markets.

scholarly journals ANALISIS TRANSPORTASI UDARA, KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN, NILAI TUKAR DAN KESEMPATAN KERJA DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN VECM

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Miya Pertiwi ◽  
Alpon Satrianto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Air Transportation ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aims to identify and analyze responses between air transportation, tourist visits, exchange rates and employment opportunities in Indonesia. This type of research is descriptive and associative, where the data used are secondary data in the form of time series from 2000 fourth quarter to 2018 fourth quarter. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method through the analysis of block causality test, Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) to seeing the variability response of an endogenous variable due to the presence of other endogenous variables. The results of this study indicate that: (1) Variability of air transportation is not contributed by the shock of tourist visits, exchange rates and employment opportunities in the short term, but in the long run, variability of air transportation is contributed by shock of tourist visits, exchange rates and employment opportunities. (2) Variability of tourist visits is only influenced by short-term air transportation shock. Whereas air transportation, exchange rates and employment opportunities in the long run contribute to influencing the variability of tourist visits in Indonesia. (3) Exchange rate variability is contributed by air transportation shock, tourist visits and work opportunities in the short and long term. (4) Variability of employment opportunities is contributed by air transportation shock, tourist visits and exchange rates in the short and long term in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Causality and dynamic relationships between exchange rate and stock market indices in BRICS countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (50) ◽  
pp. 395-412
Author(s):  
Mourad Mroua ◽  
Lotfi Trabelsi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Short And Long Term

Purpose This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the causality and the dynamic links between exchange rates and stock market indices. It attempts to identify the short- and long-term effect of the US dollar on major stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South-Africa (BRICS) nations. Design/methodology/approach This paper applies a new methodology combining the panel generalized method of moments model and the panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to investigate the existence of a causal short-/long-run relationships and dynamic dependence among all stock market returns and exchanges rates changes of BRICS countries. Findings Results show that exchange rate changes have a significant effect on the past and the current volatility of the BRICS stock indices. Besides, ARDL estimations reveal that exchange rate movements have a significant effect on short- and long-term stocks market indices of all BRICS countries Originality/value The findings have implications for policymakers and market participants who try to manage the exchange rate will have a different dose of intervention if they know that the effects of currency depreciation are different than appreciation. These results have important implications that investors should take into account in frequency-varying exchange rates and stock returns and regulators should consider developing sound policy measures to prevent financial risk.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

scholarly journals International portfolio diversification: United States and south Asian equity markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rizwan Mushtaq ◽  
Zulfiqar Shah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Market Index ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short And Long Term

This paper explores the dynamic liaison between US and three developing South Asian equity markets in short and long term. To gauge the long-term relationship, we applied Johansen co-integration procedure as all the representative indices are found to be non-stationary at level. The findings illustrate that the US equity market index exhibits a reasonably different movement over time in contrast to the three developing equity markets under consideration. However, the Granger-causality test divulge that the direction of causality scamper from US equity market to the three South Asian markets. It further indicates that within the three developing equity markets the direction of causality emanates from Bombay stock market to Karachi and Colombo. Overall, the results of the study suggest that the American investors can get higher returns through international diversification into developing equity markets, while the US stock market would also be a gainful upshot for South Asian investors.

scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rate on Bangladesh’s Export: A Cointegration Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-30
Author(s):  
Takrima Sayeda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of the paper is to see if there is any relationship exist between free floating exchange rate and export performance of Bangladesh. It inspects the monthly data of exchange rate and export value for the time period between year 2000 and 2017. It utilized the Johansen [1] cointegration approach to identify the extent of long run and short run relationship between them. The study could not establish neither any long term trend nor any short term dynamics between the variables. Respective variables are significantly related to their own immediate past values. Distant past values do not have any implications. This study suggests that short run macroeconomic policy would be beneficial to influence the foreign exchange market and eventually the performance of export of Bangladesh.

scholarly journals PRICE INTERACTIONS AND CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS AMONG CORN, EXCHANGE RATE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN SOURCES IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Unekwu Onuche
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Poultry Meat ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Meat Price ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

Price transmissions between corn, exchange rate, poultry meat, and fish were investigated using the data from OECD-FAO for the years 1990-2019, to establish the existence of long-term relationships between them and identify their directions of causality, in order to elicit investmentaiding facts. The augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, the Johansen cointegration approach and the Granger causality test were employed. Following the ADF test, all series are I(1), while the cointegration test indicates short-run dynamics between them. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) system reveals that poultry meat price influences all variables, prices of poultry meat and exchange rate relate positively to their own lags, and exchange rate relates positively to lags of poultry meat prices. A positive relationship was noticed between fish price and lags of poultry meat price, while corn price relates positively with lags of poultry meat price. Granger causality tests indicate unidirectional drives from poultry price to fish price, the exchange rate to fish price and poultry meat price to corn price. Responses from prices of fish, corn and poultry to innovations from exchange rate are negative, while positive responses exist in other scenarios. Exchange rate stabilization will mitigate external risks, especially to the fisheries sector, while corn farmers can increase profits in the short-run by exploring knowledge of poultry meat price movements.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF IMPORT FACILITIES FOR EXPORT PURPOSES, EXCHANGE RATES, AND INFLATION ON EXPORTS OF TEXTILES AND TEXTILE PRODUCTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-38
Author(s):  
Mohammad Fachrudin ◽  
Indah Puspitasari
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Textile Industry ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Fiscal Incentives ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
The Government

The Import Facility for Export Purpose (KITE) is the Government's effort to encourage export performance. Companies that receive the KITE facility obtain fiscal incentives and export their product to import raw materials. The textile and textile product (TPT) industry is a strategic industry and has been determined by the Government as a pilot industry in the Roadmap for Making Indonesia 4.0. The textile industry relies on imported raw materials, so that the KITE facility is needed to encourage growth and increase product competitiveness in the international market. This study aims to determine the effect of the KITE facility, the rupiah exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, and the inflation rate on Indonesia's textile exports. We used a sample of 37 industrial textile companies in Indonesia that received the KITE facility  2016 to 2018. This study uses a panel data regression model with independent variables: KITE facility, exchange rates, inflation, and exported dependent variable. The results showed that the KITE facility had a positive and significant effect on the textile industry exports. In contrast, the exchange rate and inflation had a negative and significant impact on Indonesia's textile industry exports. This study's implications for the Government can be used to formulate a national strategy to increase export.

scholarly journals INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DAN RETURN SAHAM SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Utami Baroroh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Us Dollar

The objectives of this study are to examine empirical test the long term equilibrium and simulteneous relationship between macroeconomics variables to stock return in Indonesia and to observe stock return response because shock/innovation of inflation, SBI discount rate and exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar. The data sample used in this study are monthly time series data from 2003.1 – 2010.6. Those data are SBI discount rate, inflation (CPI), exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar, money supply and stock return (IHSG). A method of analysis in this study are Granger Causality Test and Cointegration test. The empirical results shows that SBI discount rate, inflation (CPI), and exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar have causality relationship to stock return.. The cointegration test indicates that among research variables there is long term equilibrium and simultaneous relationshipDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v2i2.2421

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