scholarly journals Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-230
Author(s):  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
Marianna Vasilaki ◽  
Martin Hanel ◽  
Ján Szolgay ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
...  

Abstract This paper analyses projected changes in short-term rainfall events during the warm season (April – October) in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The analysis of trend changes and changes in scaling exponents was done for the Hurbanovo, Bratislava, Oravská Lesná, and Myjava stations in Slovakia. The characteristics of maximum rainfall events were analysed for two scenario periods, one past and one future (1960–2000 and 2070–2100) and compared to the characteristics of the actual observed events. The main findings from the analysis show that 60-min short-term events for most of the RCM simulations will either increase or remain constant. On the other hand, the depths and intensities of daily events are projected to increase significantly; in some cases they were found to be ten times larger. Trends in future events at the Hurbanovo station were found to be insignificant. In the other stations positive trends in future rainfall events prevail, except for daily rainfall at the Myjava station, which shows a negative trend. Using results from the selected simulations, the scaling exponents estimated are on average lower than the exponents of the data observed. On the other hand, due to the higher daily precipitation amounts in the future seen to all the scenarios, the downscaled values of short-term rainfall at all the stations analysed might be considerably higher in the future horizons, which could subsequently affect future design rainfall values for engineering designs.

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianna Vasilaki ◽  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
Martin Hanel ◽  
Ján Szolgay ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
...  

AbstractThis paper analyses the projected changes in short-term rainfall events during the warm season (April–October) in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The seasonality analysis was done for the Hurbanovo, Bratislava, Oravska Lesna, and Myjava stations in Slovakia. The characteristics of maximum rainfall events were analysed for two scenario periods, one past and one future (1960–2000 and 2070–2100) and compared to the characteristics of the actual observed events. The main findings from the analysis show that short-term events of 60 minutes appear to have stronger seasonality than daily events that show a rather high variability. The seasonality concentration index calculated for the 60 min events averages to 0.77, while that of daily events averaged to 0.65. The differences between the dates of the occurrence of past and future events are not significant in the lowland areas, while in the mountainous areas the future events have been found to occur earlier than past ones.


1974 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustav Wägar

ABSTRACT Whether the short-term regulation of thyroidal protein synthesis by TSH occurs at the transcriptional or the translational level was tested by measuring the effect of actinomycin D (act D) on the TSH-induced stimulation of L-14C-leucine incorporation into the thyroidal proteins of rats. TSH was injected 6 h before the rats were killed. The thyroid glands were then removed and incubated in vitro in the presence of L-14C-leucine for 2 h. The pronounced stimulation of leucine incorporation in the TSH-treated animals was depressed as compared with controls but still significant even when the animals had been pre-treated with 100 μg act D 24 and 7 h before sacrifice. On the other hand, act D strongly decreased incorporation of 3H-uridine into RNA. Short-term regulation of thyroidal protein synthesis by TSH appears to be partly but not wholly dependent on neosynthesis of RNA. Hence regulation may partly occur at the translation level of protein synthesis.


2010 ◽  
Vol 51 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 215-224
Author(s):  
Alexander Carpenter

This paper explores Arnold Schoenberg’s curious ambivalence towards Haydn. Schoenberg recognized Haydn as an important figure in the German serious music tradition, but never closely examined or clearly articulated Haydn’s influence and import on his own musical style and ethos, as he did with many other major composers. This paper argues that Schoenberg failed to explicitly recognize Haydn as a major influence because he saw Haydn as he saw himself, namely as a somewhat ungainly, paradoxical figure, with one foot in the past and one in the future. In his voluminous writings on music, Haydn is mentioned by Schoenberg far less frequently than Bach, Mozart, or Beethoven, and his music appears rarely as examples in Schoenberg’s theoretical texts. When Schoenberg does talk about Haydn’s music, he invokes — with tacit negativity — its accessibility, counterpoising it with more recondite music, such as Beethoven’s, or his own. On the other hand, Schoenberg also praises Haydn for his complex, irregular phrasing and harmonic exploration. Haydn thus appears in Schoenberg’s writings as a figure invested with ambivalence: a key member of the First Viennese triumvirate, but at the same time he is curiously phantasmal, and is accorded a peripheral place in Schoenberg’s version of the canon and his own musical genealogy.


Author(s):  
Zoran Vrucinic

The future of medicine belongs to immunology and alergology. I tried to not be too wide in description, but on the other hand to mention the most important concepts of alergology to make access to these diseases more understandable, logical and more useful for our patients, that without complex pathophysiology and mechanism of immune reaction,we gain some basic insight into immunological principles. The name allergy to medicine was introduced by Pirquet in 1906, and is of Greek origin (allos-other + ergon-act; different reaction), essentially representing the reaction of an organism to a substance that has already been in contact with it, and manifested as a specific response thatmanifests as either a heightened reaction, a hypersensitivity, or as a reduced reaction immunity. Synonyms for hypersensitivity are: altered reactivity, reaction, hypersensitivity. The word sensitization comes from the Latin (sensibilitas, atis, f.), which means sensibility,sensitivity, and has retained that meaning in medical vocabulary, while in immunology and allergology this term implies the creation of hypersensitivity to an antigen. Antigen comes from the Greek words, anti-anti + genos-genus, the opposite, anti-substance substance that causes the body to produce antibodies.


Author(s):  
Matthias Albani

The monotheistic confession in Isa 40–48 is best understood against the historical context of Israel’s political and religious crisis situation in the final years of Neo-Babylonian rule. According to Deutero-Isaiah, Yhwh is unique and incomparable because he alone truly predicts the “future” (Isa 41:22–29)—currently the triumph of Cyrus—which will lead to Israel’s liberation from Babylonian captivity (Isa 45). This prediction is directed against the Babylonian deities’ claim to possess the power of destiny and the future, predominantly against Bel-Marduk, to whom both Nabonidus and his opponents appeal in their various political assertions regarding Cyrus. According to the Babylonian conviction, Bel-Marduk has the universal divine power, who, on the one hand, directs the course of the stars and thus determines the astral omens and, on the other hand, directs the course of history (cf. Cyrus Cylinder). As an antithesis, however, Deutero-Isaiah proclaims Yhwh as the sovereign divine creator and leader of the courses of the stars in heaven as well as the course of history on earth (Isa 45:12–13). Moreover, the conflict between Nabonidus and the Marduk priesthood over the question of the highest divine power (Sîn versus Marduk) may have had a kind of “catalytic” function in Deutero-Isaiah’s formulation of the monotheistic confession.


2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang He Gu ◽  
Zhong Bo Yu ◽  
Ji Gan Wang

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.


1895 ◽  
Vol 2 (12) ◽  
pp. 529-539 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. A. Nicholson ◽  
J. E. Marr

Since the remarkable paper by Professor Lapworth “On an Improved Classification of the Rhabdophora” was published in the Geological Magazine for 1873, a great deal of fresh information has been gathered as to these interesting fossils; but the classification given in that paper, though to some extent confessedly artificial, is still generally adhered to. Observations made by the authors in recent years lead them to suppose that that classification will in the future undergo considerable modification; but in the present state of our knowledge it serves a purpose so useful, that it is not our intention to propose any immediate change in it. Our object, on the other hand, is to bring forward certain conclusions which we have independently reached, and which will, we believe, enhance the value of Graptolites to the stratigraphical geologist, and lead to results important to the biologist. Our conclusions are based upon an examination of a large number of forms generally referred to the family Dichograptidæ; but, as we propose very briefly to indicate, they affect the relationships of Graptolites belonging to other families also.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cathryn Birch ◽  
Lawrence Jackson ◽  
Declan Finney ◽  
John Marsham ◽  
Rachel Stratton ◽  
...  

<p>Mean temperatures and their extremes have increased over Africa since the latter half of the 20th century and this trend is projected to continue, with very frequent, intense and often deadly heatwaves likely to occur very regularly over much of Africa by 2100. It is crucial that we understand the scale of the future increases in extremes and the driving mechanisms. We diagnose daily maximum wet bulb temperature heatwaves, which allows for both the impact of temperature and humidity, both critical for human health and survivability. During wet bulb heatwaves, humidity and cloud cover increase, which limits the surface shortwave radiation flux but increases longwave warming. It is found from observations and ERA5 reanalysis that approximately 30% of wet bulb heatwaves over Africa are associated with daily rainfall accumulations of more than 1 mm/day on the first day of the heatwave. The first ever pan-African convection-permitting climate model simulations of present-day and RCP8.5 future climate are utilised to illustrate the projected future change in heatwaves, their drivers and their sensitivity to the representation of convection. Compared to ERA5, the convection-permitting model better represents the frequency and magnitude of present-day wet bulb heatwaves than a version of the model with more traditional parameterised convection. The future change in heatwave frequency, duration and magnitude is also larger in the convective-scale simulation, suggesting CMIP-style models may underestimate the future change in wet bulb heat extremes over Africa. The main reason for the larger future change appears to be the ability of the model to produce larger anomalies relative to its climatology in precipitation, cloud and the surface energy balance.</p>


2021 ◽  
pp. 315-335
Author(s):  
Edward W. Fuller

Every investment project is aimed at achieving some future goal. This goal can only be attained by employing scarce resources, like time. Every investment project entails foregoing other investment projects. It is impossible to undertake all investment projects simultaneously because resources are scarce. This means each investment project is subject to cost. The investment project may be unsuccessful in achieving the future goal and the entrepreneur may suffer a loss. On the other hand, investment projects are only undertaken because they are perceived as more valuable than their costs. Every investment project undertaken implies the possibility of earning a profit. Investment projects take time. An investment project can be represented by a time line. Time A represents the beginning of the production process. Time B is the end of the production pro-cess. Line AB is called the period of production. Present goods are scarce resources that can be consumed im-mediately. On the other hand, future goods cannot be consumed immediately. Future goods are only expected to be consumer goods at some point in the future. An investment project entails making an investment at time A and receiving a present good at time B. All else equal, present goods are more valuable than future goods.1 Any good at time A is more valuable than the same good at time B. This is called time preference. Money is the present good par excellence. Therefore, future goods can be called future cash flows. All else equal, present money is more valuable than future money. This is called the time value of money. The interest rate is the price of present goods in terms of future goods. The interest rate is the price which equates the amount of present goods provided by savers with the amount of present goods demanded by investors. Like all prices, the interest rate is determined by supply and demand. Savers are suppliers of present goods. The supply curve (S) is the quantity of present goods supplied at each interest rate. Factor owners (investors) are the demanders, or buyers, of present goods. The demand curve (D) is the quantity of present goods demanded at each interest rate. The intersection of the supply and demand curve determines the interest rate. The interest rate is determined by the supply and demand for present goods:2


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 178-200
Author(s):  
Zaprulkhan Zaprulkhan

This article discusses Bediuzzaman Said Nursi’s ideas on significance of the Practices of the Prophet (Sunna) for modern people. In the present day, many modern people deal with some problems such as spiritual crisis (existential vacuum), moral degradation, and so on. On the other hand, according to Said Nursi, Practices of the Prophet are all highly beneficial remedies for sicknesses of the spirit, mind, and heart, and particularly for social sicknesses. Accordingly, Practices of the Prophet could give the best solution for modern people problems, both individual sicknesses and social sicknesses. Before proposing Said Nursi’s perspective about significance of sunna, the paper forwards epistemological questions: How are the meaning and function of sunna according to Said Nursi? How are the urgent problems of modern people? What is the significance of Practices of the Prophet for modern people in the view of Said Nursi? The answer of these questions will determine the significance of the Practices of the Prophet in our era and in the future.


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