scholarly journals Changes in growth caused by climate change and other limiting factors in time affect the optimal equilibrium of close-to-nature forest management

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 180-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Rößiger ◽  
Ladislav Kulla ◽  
Michal Bošeľa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Ecological Modelling ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Diameter Distribution ◽  
Radial Increment ◽  
Optimal Management

Abstract Historical radial increment data based on tree ring analyses from the close-to-nature experimental forest management unit Smolnícka Osada in Central Slovakia were used for retrospective modelling of changes in forest dynamics to estimate the sensitivity of management planning goals under climate change. Four example years representing historical periods with typically different species-specific patterns of radial increment in mixed beech-fir-spruce forest (1910, 1950, 1980, and 2014) served as virtual starting points for the modelling. An advanced density-dependent matrix transition model was utilised for modelling stand dynamics. An integrated tool for nonlinear financial optimisation searched for an optimal management equilibrium. In addition to transition probabilities adjusted from increment data, some assumptions for changes in ingrowth and mortality related to the increment, as well as a case study concerning the reduced ingrowth changed by game browsing intensity, were tested for modelling more realistic historical ecological conditions. The sensitivity study revealed changes in the optimal management equilibrium represented by optimal basal area, tree species composition, diameter distribution and target harvest diameter over time due to the adapted ecological modelling. The main lesson of the past for the future is to avoid placing too much trust in the simple extrapolation of current trends, such as the observed continual decline in spruce related to climate change, but to be aware of temporal and possibly reversible processes, such as the observed extensive fir recovery after the reduction of air pollution. Tree species diversity appears to be the best option for the uncertain future.

scholarly journals The cost of risk management and multifunctionality in forestry: a simulation approach for a case study area in Southeast Germany

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Friedrich ◽  
Torben Hilmers ◽  
Claudia Chreptun ◽  
Elizabeth Gosling ◽  
Isabelle Jarisch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Species Selection ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Financial Return ◽  
The Cost

AbstractForest management faces growing uncertainty concerning environmental conditions and demand for ecosystem services. To help forest managers consider uncertainty, we applied a robust and multi-criteria approach to select the optimal composition of a forest enterprise from 12 stand types. In our simulation, the forest enterprise strives for either financial return or a multi-criteria forest management considering financial return, carbon storage and forest ecosystem stability. To quantify the influence of climate change on these decision criteria, we used the concept of analogous climate zones. Our results provide recommendations for long-term strategies for tree species selection in a Southeast German forest enterprise. The results show that considering both uncertainty and multifunctionality in forest management led to more diversified forest compositions. However, robust and multi-criteria optimisation required the forest enterprise to pay a premium in terms of lower income. Financial returns decreased when forest composition accounted for uncertainty or multiple objectives. We also found that adaptation measures could only partly financially compensate the effects of climate change. As the study is limited to two tree species, including additional tree species, variants of mixing proportions and further silvicultural strategies in the optimisation appears a promising avenue for future research.

Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Pecchi ◽  
Maurizio Marchi ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Giovanni Forzieri ◽  
Marco Ammoniaci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Mixed Stands ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract Background: Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for the human wellbeing and their ability is influenced by climate background and further connected to forest management strategies. Italy is a well-known biodiversity hotspot but an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change is still missing in this country. The aim of this paper is model the potential impact of climate change on 19 tree species occurring across the Italian forests using a species distribution modelling approach, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). Results: While no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area has been predicted with some tree species gaining space and covering the spatial contractions of others, results showed substantial differences between each species and different climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and therefore a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands (e.g. Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g. Fagus, Quercus), probably due to their artificial origin which established pure stands with tree species generally more prone to admixture with others in (semi)-natural ecosystems.Conclusions: Forest management could play a fundamental role to reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favouring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow and supporting (spatial) migration processes.

scholarly journals Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gintautas Mozgeris ◽  
Vilis Brukas ◽  
Nerijus Pivoriūnas ◽  
Gintautas Činga ◽  
Ekaterina Makrickienė ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Effects

Research Highlights: Validating modelling approach which combines global framework conditions in the form of climate and policy scenarios with the use of forest decision support system to assess climate change impacts on the sustainability of forest management. Background and Objectives: Forests and forestry have been confirmed to be sensitive to climate. On the other hand, human efforts to mitigate climate change influence forests and forest management. To facilitate the evaluation of future sustainability of forest management, decision support systems are applied. Our aims are to: (1) Adopt and validate decision support tool to incorporate climate change and its mitigation impacts on forest growth, global timber demands and prices for simulating future trends of forest ecosystem services in Lithuania, (2) determine the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change effects on Lithuanian forests and forest management in the future, supposing that current forestry practices are continued. Materials and Methods: Upgraded version of Lithuanian forestry simulator Kupolis was used to model the development of all forests in the country until 2120 under management conditions of three climate change scenarios. Selected stand-level forest and forest management characteristics were aggregated to the level of regional branches of the State Forest Enterprise and analyzed for the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change effects. Results: Increased forest growth under a warmer future climate resulted in larger tree dimensions, volumes of growing stock, naturally dying trees, harvested assortments, and also higher profits from forestry activities. Negative impacts were detected for the share of broadleaved tree species in the standing volume and the tree species diversity. Climate change effects resulted in spatially clustered patterns—increasing stand productivity, and amounts of harvested timber were concentrated in the regions with dominating coniferous species, while the same areas were exposed to negative dynamics of biodiversity-related forest attributes. Current forest characteristics explained 70% or more of the variance of climate change effects on key forest and forest management attributes. Conclusions: Using forest decision support systems, climate change scenarios and considering the balance of delivered ecosystem services is suggested as a methodological framework for validating forest management alternatives aiming for more adaptiveness in Lithuanian forestry.

The role of alpha and beta diversity in buffering the effects of intensifying natural disturbance regimes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julius Sebald ◽  
Timothy Thrippleton ◽  
Werner Rammer ◽  
Harald Bugmann ◽  
Rupert Seidl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Species Diversity ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Beta Diversity ◽  
Alpha Diversity ◽  
Tree Species Diversity ◽  
Alpha And Beta Diversity ◽  
Disturbance Regimes ◽  
The Impact

<div> <div> <div> <p>Forests are strongly affected by climatic changes, but impacts vary between tree species and prevailing site conditions. A number of studies suggest that increasing tree species diversity is a potent management strategy to decrease climate change impacts in general, and increase the resilience of forest ecosystems to changing disturbance regimes. However, most studies to date have focused on stand-level diversity in tree species (alpha diversity), which is often difficult to implement in operational forest management. Inter-species competition requires frequent management interventions to maintain species mixture and complicates the production of high-quality stemwood. An alternative option to increasing alpha diversity is to increase tree species diversity between forest stands (beta diversity). Here we quantify the effects of alpha and beta diversity on the impact of forest disturbances under climate change. We conducted a simulation experiment applying two forest landscape models (i.e. iLand and LandClim) in two landscapes with strongly contrasting environmental conditions in Central Europe. Simulations investigate different levels of tree species diversity (no diversity, low diversity and high diversity) in different spatial arrangements (alpha diversity, beta diversity). Subsequently a standard forest management regime and a series of prescribed disturbances are applied over 200 years. By analyzing biomass values relative to a no-disturbance run, variation in biomass over time and the number of trees > 30 cm dbh per hectare, we isolate the effect of tree species diversity on the resistance of forests to disturbances.</p> </div> </div> </div>

scholarly journals Influence of drainage reconstruction on radial increment of conifers: case study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baiba Jansone ◽  
◽  
Linards Sisenis ◽  
Irina Pilvere ◽  
Marcis Vinters ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Stand Density ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Radial Increment ◽  
System Reconstruction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Beaver Dams

Drainage ensures flow of water and access of oxygen to the roots of the trees. Therefore, melioration systems have been established in a third of the forest area of Latvia, and for the most part highly productive stands can be observed in these areas. Water flow in these systems is often stopped by beaver dams. The aim of our case study was to assess the impact of ditch reconstruction on the increment of the coniferous trees. Increment cores were collected from 169 trees at a distance up to 45 m from the ditch in the drainage system that was reconstructed 8 years prior. Drainage system reconstruction reversed the trend of declining radial increment for both Scots pine and Norway spruce; however, the influence of this measure over an 8 year period was statistically significant, notable (55%) and positive only for Norway spruce, growing closest to the edge of the ditch. Other growth limiting factors need to be considered and tackled to ensure the highest effect of the investment in drainage system reconstruction, including choice of the tree species, stand density, age, availability of nutrients.

scholarly journals Combining Tree Species Composition and Understory Coverage Indicators with Optimization Techniques to Address Concerns with Landscape-Level Biodiversity

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Brigite Botequim ◽  
Miguel N. Bugalho ◽  
Ana Raquel Rodrigues ◽  
Susete Marques ◽  
Marco Marto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
Biodiversity Conservation ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Tree Species Composition ◽  
Management Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Landscape Level

Sustainable forest management needs to address biodiversity conservation concerns. For that purpose, forest managers need models and indicators that may help evaluate the impact of management options on biodiversity under the uncertainty of climate change scenarios. In this research we explore the potential for designing mosaics of stand-level forest management models to address biodiversity conservation objectives on a broader landscape-level. Our approach integrates (i) an effective stand-level biodiversity indicator that reflect tree species composition, stand age, and understory coverage under divergent climate conditions; and (ii) linear programming optimization techniques to guide forest actors in seeing optimal forest practices to safeguard future biodiversity. Emphasis is on the efficiency and effectiveness of an approach to help assess the impact of forest management planning on biodiversity under scenarios of climate change. Results from a resource capability model are discussed for an application to a large-scale problem encompassing 14,765 ha, extending over a 90-years planning horizon and considering two local-climate scenarios. They highlight the potential of the approach to help assess the impact of both stand and landscape-level forest management models on biodiversity conservation goals. They demonstrate further that the approach provides insights about how climate change, timber demand and wildfire resistance may impact plans that target the optimization of biodiversity values. The set of optimized long-term solutions emphasizes a multifunctional forest that guarantees a desirable local level of biodiversity and resilience to wildfires, while providing a balanced production of wood over time at the landscape scale.

scholarly journals Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Pecchi ◽  
Maurizio Marchi ◽  
Marco Moriondo ◽  
Giovanni Forzieri ◽  
Marco Ammoniaci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Forest Coverage ◽  
Potential Impact

Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for human wellbeing. In a changing climate, forest management is expected to play a fundamental role by preserving the functioning of forest ecosystems and enhancing the adaptive processes. Understanding and quantifying the future forest coverage in view of climate changes is therefore crucial in order to develop appropriate forest management strategies. However, the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems remain largely unknown due to the uncertainties lying behind the future prediction of models. To fill this knowledge gap, here we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the forest coverage in Italy using species distribution modelling technique. The spatial distribution of 19 forest tree species in the country was extracted from the last national forest inventory and modelled using nine Species Distribution Models algorithms, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). The single species predictions were then compared and used to build a future forest cover map for the country. Overall, no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area was predicted with compensatory effects in forest coverage of different tree species, whose magnitude and patters appear largely modulated by the driving climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and, therefore, a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands along the Apennines chain in central Italy (e.g., Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g., Fagus, Quercus) and generally characterized by pure and even-aged planted forests, much further away from their natural structure where admixture with other tree species is more likely. In this context a sustainable forest management strategy may reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favoring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow, and supporting (spatial) migration processes.

scholarly journals Klimawandel als waldbauliche Herausforderung | Climate change as a challenge for silviculture

2008 ◽  
Vol 159 (10) ◽  
pp. 362-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Brang ◽  
Harald Bugmann ◽  
Anton Bürgi ◽  
Urs Mühlethaler ◽  
Andreas Rigling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Species Selection ◽  
Site Conditions ◽  
Site Factors ◽  
Artificial Regeneration ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Silvicultural System

Climate change is about to change many site factors relevant for forest dynamics, and is therefore posing a great challenge for silviculture. We review the options for addressing this challenge and provide recommendations. In general, forest management should aim at increasing the adaptive capacity of the forests, enhancing their resistance to disturbance, and at reducing negative impacts of increased disturbances on forest products and services. The key to coping with climate change lies in enhancing the proportion of tree species adapted to future climate, and, in response to the uncertainties associated, in promoting the diversity of tree species and provenances. Additionally, fostering diversity in forest structure is likely to reduce risks and secure forest products and services. Strategic silvicultural options include mapping the sensitivity of sites and stands to climate change, adapting the target species compositions and choosing an appropriate silvicultural system. At an operational level, silvicultural options to increase tree species diversity include artificial regeneration, tending young stands, regeneration cuts and the reduction of ungulate impact. Other options are the premature final felling of stands and wildfire prevention. As the site conditions are undergoing change, the two cornerstones of close-to-nature silviculture “species selection based on (current) site conditions” and “preference for natural regeneration”, need revision. A flexible approach to forest management is advocated since the reactions of the forest to climate change cannot be accurately predicted.

scholarly journals A word of caution when planning forest management using projections of tree species range shifts

2010 ◽  
Vol 86 (3) ◽  
pp. 312-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yueh-Hsin Lo ◽  
Juan A. Blanco ◽  
J. P. (Hamish) Kimmins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Forest Policy ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Ecological Zones ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Climate Envelope

In this note we raise our concerns about the use of climate envelope models as a basis for forest planning under climate change. Such models assume constant relationships among tree species presence, abundance or growth rates and climatic variables, and that these can be transferred from their current distribution areas to areas that are predicted to have a similar future climate. Climate is an important determinant of tree species distributions, but its effects are mediated through soils, competition from other plant species, herbivores, diseases, insects and fire. This complexity should be addressed when making predictions about plant species distribution changes. If forecasts based only on climate are accepted uncritically and become the basis for forest policy and practice, there could be important consequences for the success of forest management. We illustrate the issue with the historical response of tree growth to climate variability for three conifer species along an altitudinal gradient in southern interior British Columbia. The growth–climate relationships differ not only among species but also between ecological zones, which implies that the different combinations of tree species and site will react differently to the same change in climate. All things considered, caution is needed when developing management plans using predicted future tree distributions based only on current/past tree/climate relationships. Key words: climate-envelope models, climate change, species distributions, dendroclimatology

Anthropogene Klimaveränderung, Sukzessionsprozesse und forstwirtschaftliche Optionen | Anthropogenic Climate Change, Successional Processes and Forest Management Options

1999 ◽  
Vol 150 (8) ◽  
pp. 275-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harald Bugmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Anthropogenic Changes ◽  
Tree Species Composition ◽  
Biomass Storage ◽  
Simulation Results

Anthropogenic changes of the climate have the potential to significantly affect forests in the coming century. In this paper, methods for assessing the impacts of such changes are reviewed, and mathematical models are used to evaluate possible changes of the tree species composition and biomass storage of Swiss forests. The simulation results are discussed from an ecological as well as from a forestry perspective.

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