scholarly journals The cost of risk management and multifunctionality in forestry: a simulation approach for a case study area in Southeast Germany

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Friedrich ◽  
Torben Hilmers ◽  
Claudia Chreptun ◽  
Elizabeth Gosling ◽  
Isabelle Jarisch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Species Selection ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Financial Return ◽  
The Cost

AbstractForest management faces growing uncertainty concerning environmental conditions and demand for ecosystem services. To help forest managers consider uncertainty, we applied a robust and multi-criteria approach to select the optimal composition of a forest enterprise from 12 stand types. In our simulation, the forest enterprise strives for either financial return or a multi-criteria forest management considering financial return, carbon storage and forest ecosystem stability. To quantify the influence of climate change on these decision criteria, we used the concept of analogous climate zones. Our results provide recommendations for long-term strategies for tree species selection in a Southeast German forest enterprise. The results show that considering both uncertainty and multifunctionality in forest management led to more diversified forest compositions. However, robust and multi-criteria optimisation required the forest enterprise to pay a premium in terms of lower income. Financial returns decreased when forest composition accounted for uncertainty or multiple objectives. We also found that adaptation measures could only partly financially compensate the effects of climate change. As the study is limited to two tree species, including additional tree species, variants of mixing proportions and further silvicultural strategies in the optimisation appears a promising avenue for future research.

scholarly journals Klimawandel als waldbauliche Herausforderung | Climate change as a challenge for silviculture

2008 ◽  
Vol 159 (10) ◽  
pp. 362-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Brang ◽  
Harald Bugmann ◽  
Anton Bürgi ◽  
Urs Mühlethaler ◽  
Andreas Rigling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
Species Selection ◽  
Site Conditions ◽  
Site Factors ◽  
Artificial Regeneration ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Silvicultural System

Climate change is about to change many site factors relevant for forest dynamics, and is therefore posing a great challenge for silviculture. We review the options for addressing this challenge and provide recommendations. In general, forest management should aim at increasing the adaptive capacity of the forests, enhancing their resistance to disturbance, and at reducing negative impacts of increased disturbances on forest products and services. The key to coping with climate change lies in enhancing the proportion of tree species adapted to future climate, and, in response to the uncertainties associated, in promoting the diversity of tree species and provenances. Additionally, fostering diversity in forest structure is likely to reduce risks and secure forest products and services. Strategic silvicultural options include mapping the sensitivity of sites and stands to climate change, adapting the target species compositions and choosing an appropriate silvicultural system. At an operational level, silvicultural options to increase tree species diversity include artificial regeneration, tending young stands, regeneration cuts and the reduction of ungulate impact. Other options are the premature final felling of stands and wildfire prevention. As the site conditions are undergoing change, the two cornerstones of close-to-nature silviculture “species selection based on (current) site conditions” and “preference for natural regeneration”, need revision. A flexible approach to forest management is advocated since the reactions of the forest to climate change cannot be accurately predicted.

scholarly journals Implementing Climate Change and Associated Future Timber Price Trends in a Decision Support System Designed for Irish Forest Management and Applied to Ireland’s Western Peatland Forests

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Lundholm ◽  
Edwin Corrigan ◽  
Maarten Nieuwenhuis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
The Impact

Research Highlights: Predicting impacts on forest management of Climate Change (CC) and dynamic timber prices by incorporating these external factors in a Forest Management Decision Support System (FMDSS). Background and Objectives: Forest managers must comply with Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) practices, including considering the long-term impacts that CC and the bioeconomy may have on their forests and their management. The aims of this study are: (1) incorporate the effects of CC and Dynamic Prices (DP) in a FMDSS that was developed for Ireland’s peatland forests, (2) analyse the impact of global climate and market scenarios on forest management and forest composition at the landscape level. Materials and Methods: Remsoft Woodstock is a strategic planning decision support system that is widely used for forest management around the world. A linear programming model was developed for Ireland’s Western Peatland forests while using Woodstock. Data from Climadapt, which is an expert-based decision support system that was developed in Ireland, were used to include CC effects on forest productivity and species suitability. Dynamic market prices were also included to reflect the changing demands for wood fibre as part of the European Union (EU) and global effort to mitigate CC. Results: DP will likely have more impact on harvest patterns, volumes, and net present value than CC. Higher assortment prices, especially for pulpwood, stimulate the harvesting of forests on marginal sites and off-set some of the negative CC growth impacts on forest profitability. Conclusions: Incorporating CC and bioeconomy prices in a forest decision support system is feasible and recommendable. Foresters should incorporate the expected global changes in their long-term management planning to mitigate the negative effects that un-informed management decisions can have on the sustainability of their forests.

scholarly journals Assessment of costs on the adaptation to climate change in Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 60-71
Author(s):  
Galyna Trypolska ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Protection ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Adaptive Nature ◽  
Regional Budgets ◽  
Promising Source ◽  
First Time

The paper focuses on the main adaptation measures financed in Ukraine at the expense of state and regional budgets region-wise during 2016-2018 within the framework of environmental activities. The source of data was "Environmental passports of the regions". The paper finds that during 2016-2018 the most funded items of expenditure were the construction and repair of sewerage, clearing of riverbeds, repair of water protection structures and wastewater treatment. A significant gap in the cost of measures of an adaptive nature between the regions is established. Expenditures in the Transcarpathian region, which most suffers from floods, were the lowest: they were 46 times lower than expenditures on adaptation measures in the Dnipropetrovsk region, which actively allocated funds for clearing riverbeds and strengthening the river banks. During 2016-2018, almost USD 110 million were proved to be spent on adaptation measures in Ukraine. The main source of funds were local budgets, in particular regional environmental funds. Green bonds are determined to become a promising source of funding for adaptation measures in Ukraine. For the first time, the amount of funds required for adaptation measures in Ukraine until 2050 has been partially estimated. It is proved that the only international funds that can provide funding for adaptation measures in Ukraine in late 2020, is the Global Environmental Facility.

scholarly journals Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (7) ◽  
pp. 4353-4389
Author(s):  
S. Quiroga ◽  
C. Suárez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Social Aspect ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Effects Of Drought ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural outputs in Spanish rural areas. By now the effects of drought as a response to climate change or policy restrictions have been analyzed through response functions considering direct effects on crop productivity and incomes. These changes also affect incomes distribution in the region and therefore modify the social structure. Here we consider this complementary indirect effect on social distribution of incomes which is essential in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a decomposition of inequalities measure to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. This social aspect is important for climate change policies since it can be determinant for the public acceptance of certain adaptation measures in a context of drought. We provide the empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two considered impacts: farms' income average and social income distribution. In our estimates we consider crop productivity response to both bio-physical and socio-economic aspects to analyze long term implications on both competitiveness and social disparities. We find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analyzed.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts the protective effect of forests: A case study in Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Moos ◽  
Antoine Guisan ◽  
Christophe F. Randin ◽  
Heike Lischke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protective Effect ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Present Species ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ground Truth Data

Abstract In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the risk reduction provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective effect against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig for a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently present species in future. The forest turned into a Q. pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, and mixed with P. sylvestris in RCP4.5. F. sylvatica completely disappeared in RCP8.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (> 100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should address the long-term effect of different forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.

scholarly journals Long-term response of forest productivity to climate change is mostly driven by change in tree species composition

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Morin ◽  
Lorenz Fahse ◽  
Hervé Jactel ◽  
Michael Scherer-Lorenzen ◽  
Raúl García-Valdés ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Forest Productivity ◽  
Tree Species Composition ◽  
Term Response

Physiological and morphological effects of climate change

2019 ◽  
pp. 120-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew E. McKechnie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Heat Events

The direct impacts of higher temperatures on birds are manifested over timescales ranging from minutes and hours to years and decades. Over short timescales, acute exposure to high temperatures can lead to hyperthermia or dehydration, which among arid-zone species occasionally causes catastrophic mortality events. Over intermediate timescales of days to weeks, high temperatures can have chronic sub-lethal effects via body mass loss or reduced nestling growth rates, negatively affecting sev eral fitness components. Long-term effects of warming manifested over years to decades involve declining body mass or changes in appendage size. Key directions for future research include elucidating the role of phenotypic plasticity and epigenetic processes in avian adaptation to climate change, examining the role of stress pathways in mediating responses to heat events, and understanding the consequences of higher temperatures for species that traverse hot regions while migrating.

scholarly journals Viticulture and Winemaking under Climate Change

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 783 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helder Fraga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Berry Quality ◽  
Precipitation Regimes

The importance of viticulture and the winemaking socio-economic sector is acknowledged worldwide. The most renowned winemaking regions show very specific environmental characteristics, where climate usually plays a central role. Considering the strong influence of weather and climatic factors on grapevine yields and berry quality attributes, climate change may indeed significantly impact this crop. Recent-past trends already point to a pronounced increase in the growing season mean temperatures, as well as changes in the precipitation regimes, which has been influencing wine typicity across some of the most renowned winemaking regions worldwide. Moreover, several climate scenarios give evidence of enhanced stress conditions for grapevine growth until the end of the century. Although grapevines have a high resilience, the clear evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation and mitigation measures to be taken by the sector stakeholders. To provide hints on the abovementioned issues, we have edited a special issue entitled: “Viticulture and Winemaking under Climate Change”. Contributions from different fields were considered, including crop and climate modeling, and potential adaptation measures against these threats. The current special issue allows the expansion of the scientific knowledge of these particular fields of research, also providing a path for future research.

scholarly journals Analysis of Long-Term Trends of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solomon Mulugeta ◽  
Clifford Fedler ◽  
Mekonen Ayana
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Awash River Basin ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Increasing Trends

With climate change prevailing around the world, understanding the changes in long-term annual and seasonal rainfall at local scales is very important in planning for required adaptation measures. This is especially true for areas such as the Awash River basin where there is very high dependence on rain- fed agriculture characterized by frequent droughts and subsequent famines. The aim of the study is to analyze long-term trends of annual and seasonal rainfall in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Monthly rainfall data extracted from Climatic Research Unit (CRU 4.01) dataset for 54 grid points representing the entire basin were aggregated to find the respective areal annual and seasonal rainfall time series for the entire basin and its seven sub-basins. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen Slope estimator were applied to the time series for detecting the trends and for estimating the rate of change, respectively. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction, data analyses, and plotting. Geographic information system (GIS) package was also used for grid making, site selection, and mapping. The results showed that no significant trend (at α = 0.05) was identified in annual rainfall in all sub-basins and over the entire basin in the period (1902 to 2016). However, the results for seasonal rainfall are mixed across the study areas. The summer rainfall (June through September) showed significant decreasing trend (at α ≤ 0.1) over five of the seven sub-basins at a rate varying from 4 to 7.4 mm per decade but it showed no trend over the two sub-basins. The autumn rainfall (October through January) showed no significant trends over four of the seven sub-basins but showed increasing trends over three sub-basins at a rate varying from 2 to 5 mm per decade. The winter rainfall (February through May) showed no significant trends over four sub-basins but showed significant increasing trends (at α ≤ 0.1) over three sub-basins at a rate varying from 0.6 to 2.7 mm per decade. At the basin level, the summer rainfall showed a significant decreasing trend (at α = 0.05) while the autumn and winter rainfall showed no significant trends. In addition, shift in some amount of summer rainfall to winter and autumn season was noticed. It is evident that climate change has shown pronounced effects on the trends and patterns of seasonal rainfall. Thus, the study contribute to better understanding of climate change in the basin and the information from the study can be used in planning for adaptation measures against a changing climate.

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