scholarly journals Is the Greek debt sustainable? Analyzing three different scenarios for the forthcoming period 2018–2022

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-182
Author(s):  
Emmanouil M.L. Economou ◽  
Nicholas Kyriazis
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
The Third ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Official Data

Abstract In this paper, we attempt to estimate the development of the Greek public debt for the period 2018–2022. In order to achieve this, we analyze three different fiscal scenarios that are based on the official data available, together with our estimations that are based on a specific conceptual framework that we develop. The three scenarios are based on a different mixture of Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and budgetary surpluses of GDP. The analysis concludes that the numerical outcome is almost the same in all three case scenarios. However, the third scenario is the best since it leads to higher growth, GDP, and less austerity measures, and thus making public debt sustainable in the long run. The third scenario also provides the best combination of the trade-off between austerity and growth. We conclude by discussing some policy measures.

scholarly journals Social development and public debt sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Chara Vavoura ◽  
Ioannis Vavouras
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Social Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Of Greece

The issue of public debt sustainability is of exceptional importance in the case of Greece. As a rule, the relevant analysis is limited to the examination of the fiscal policy measures reported to contribute to reducing public debt leaving out the investigation of the factors that caused the country’s debt crisis. The objective of the present paper is to explore the determinants of Greece’s debt crisis and the strategy required to address it. Our work highlights the issue of social development, which is found to be a necessary condition for ensuring the long run sustainability of the country’s public debt.

A Comparison of the Economic Growth of the Baltic States between the Two World Wars

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zenonas Norkus
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Measurement Units ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Baltic

AbstractThis paper contributes to cliometric research on the economic output of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia between 1913 and 1938. For Finland, gross domestic product (GDP) values from Maddison project dataset are accepted. For Estonia, Arno Köörna’s and Jaak Valge’s estimates are endorsed with reservations for 1923–1924. According to an optimistic estimate, Lithuania’s GDP per capita was below all-Russian mean in 1913, but was not less than USSR level in 1938, while Gediminas Vaskela’s pessimistic estimate of the 1938 Lithuanian GDP implies its GDP growth underperformance. Using new sources, the first estimates of Latvia’s output for the 1913–1938 period in cross-country and cross-temporally comparable measurement units (1990 Geary Khamis international $) are substantiated. Under optimistic estimates of Lithuanian GDP growth, this country was on par with Finland in terms of annual growth rates, with Latvia following next and Estonia displaying the weakest growth performance.

scholarly journals A macro analysis of the united states recoverywith a particular focus on public debt

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Dr.Sc. Selman Selmanaj ◽  
Donika Limani ◽  
Pëllumb Reshidi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
The United States ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Debt Accumulation ◽  
The Third ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
American Economy

The intention of this paper is to analyze the lingering effects of the 2008 crisis in the United States and the implication they have on the policies undertaken by the Obama administration. A particular focus is given to the debt accumulation and how that relates to the challenges of the long run development of the American economy. The first part of this paper will give a brief overview of some of the elements central to the causes of the crisis, namely the centralization of wealth and its implication for the unsustainable consumption patterns. It will then follow to consider how the previous issues relate to the weak aggregate demand and the expansionary policies used to tackle it. Additionally, an overview of the crisis effect on the already troubled labor market is laid out in the third part. After exploring the interventionist policies used by the US administration in the after-crisis period, we move on to the presing issue of debt and possible scenarios that may arise in case it is not seriously addressed.

AN ANALYTICAL STUDY ON PUBLIC DEBT AND ITS IMPACT ON NEPALESE ECONOMY

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Men Bahadur Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Foreign Assistance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Internal Resources ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Long Run ◽  
In The Beginning

This study aims to find out the pattern and composition of public debt, and its impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of Nepal. This study is based on secondary sources of infor-mation and the data are collected from relevant archives. The collected data and information have been analyzed through descriptive as well as analytical research methods. Public borrowing has become a common practice for developing and even developed countries in order to meet the inter-nal resource crisis and development budget. Nepal had formally started borrowing from 1960s and government owed more from the external sources in the beginning, but the foreign assistance has been decreasing in recent periods. Public debt can not be so fruitful in terms of GDP growth, and this statement is supported by the fact that the average growth rate remains almost constant at 4.5 percent, but the average inflation rate is at 5.9 percent in the 40 years of study period. The amount of public debt has been increasing due to poor mobilization of internal resources and growth in unproductive recurrent expenses, especially due to the implementation of federalism of Nepal. The interest and principal of public debt especially in context of foreign debt, has been grow-ing year over year, so the burden of public debt has also been growing. In Nepalese context, the public debt to GDP ratio is 30.02 percent, so judging from that, public debt does not seem to be a serious problem as of now, because the alarming threshold specified by World Bank is at 77 per-cent. But, the growing trend of public borrowing may be a challenging problem for any nation in a long run, so the heavy dependence of national economy upon public debt, especially on foreign loan, ought to be minimized.

Peru

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillermo Cruces ◽  
Gary S. Fields ◽  
David Jaume ◽  
Mariana Viollaz
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Performance ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Educational Level ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Small Reduction ◽  
International Crisis ◽  
Per Capita

The Peruvian economy performed exceptionally well between 2000 and 2012, with a growth performance that placed the country well above the regional average and an improvement in all labour market indicators. The chapter shows that the economy suffered a slowdown as a consequence of the international crisis of 2008, but Peru sustained positive GDP growth rates during that episode and had only a small reduction in gross domestic product per capita. The only labour market indicators impacted by the international crisis were the employment structure by educational level and the percentage of registered workers who suffered a slowdown in their improving trends.

South Korea’s Economy in 2019/20: Slow Recovery, Growing Social Expenditure and the Fourth Industrial Revolution

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 83-94
Author(s):  
Tomoo KIKUCHI ◽  
Seung-Hwan JEONG ◽  
Gun-Woo LEE
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Young Population ◽  
Social Expenditure ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
The Third ◽  
Fourth Industrial Revolution

South Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth was projected to recover to 2.3% in 2020 from 2.0% in 2019, aided by the recovery in the price of semiconductors. The manufacturing sector is South Korea’s most important sector for the highly export-dependent economy. China remains the top trading partner, but Vietnam has rapidly risen to become the third-largest export and the seventh-largest import market. South Korea plans to be ahead in the fourth industrial revolution by investing in data technologies, artificial intelligence and bio-health. The challenge is to manage both its industrial transition and social welfare expenditure while the young population continues to decline.

The Financial Imbalances that Brought Down GDP: An Empirical Investigation of the 2008 Economic Crisis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauri V. Kytömaa
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Equity Price

This presentation focuses on the research I worked on for my 4th year seminar paper in economics. I analyzed the world’s largest economies to assess what factors explain the slowing growth of gross domestic product following the 2008 crisis. The specific factors I examined are: (i) credit growth; (ii) housing price growth; (iii) equity price growth; (iv) banking supervision; and (v) sovereign debt. The results suggest a negative and statistically significant effect for credit growth on post-2008 GDP growth rates. Sovereign debt also shows to have a weak negative effect on GDP growth rates following the 2008 crisis. The results for the other factors prove inconclusive and require additional research and a larger sample size to provide a more persuasive argument. The presentation will spend the majority of the time justifying why these factors may have been important in the investigation of the slowed gross domestic product. After these factors have been adequately explained the presentation will discuss the findings of my statistical work and what these results imply and contribute to economic theory.

scholarly journals A Virus’ Effect on Growth: HIV’s Effect on African GDP Growth Rates

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-10
Author(s):  
Brady Joseph Durst ◽  
Filippo Rebessi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Transmitted Disease ◽  
Hiv Prevalence ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Savings Rate

The sexually transmitted disease, HIV, is a vicious virus with no cure whose prevalence spans the entire globe, with daily diagnoses in every country. Those most affected with the terrors of the sickness lie in its birthplace of Africa, where one in ten carry the strain; and in some African countries more than a quarter of the population is HIV positive (Hacker, 2002). Compared to other world regions, Africa has a severe health crisis spawned from this relentless and incurable sickness. However, while the severity of the virus is widely known, its economic implications are not as apparent. It has been wondered, and seems intuitively correct, that a virus this deadly and prominent would have major implications on the level of output amongst highly infected countries (Dixon and McDonald, 2002). After all, a virus of this size would seem to affect numerous economic stimulating activities, such as the savings rate, labor force participation and worker determination. The expectation is to find HIV prevalence as having a negative and significant correlation to long run, per capita GDP growth rates in Africa; however, given the data, a statistical conclusion cannot be made to prove this occurrence. Instead, through the use of linear regression, economic data infers HIV prevalence has little to no effect on Africa’s sluggish GDP growth.

scholarly journals Value Creation through Public Debt and Economic Growth of Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (7) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Oshadare S.A. ◽  
Ashamu S.O. ◽  
Raheem A.N. ◽  
Ojeaga P. ◽  
Ajayi J.A.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Real Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Internal Debt

<p>The study examined the effect of value creation through public debt on economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2016 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The variables used in the study are a real gross domestic product, internal debt, external debt and Total debt service of Nigeria. They were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philip Perron test. The result showed that the variables are stationary at first differencing. Co-integration test was also performed and the result revealed the presence of co-integration between public debt and economic growth. The co-integration results show that public debt and economic growth have long run relationship. The findings of the ARDL model via short run model result and long-run model result between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria is that in the short run external debt and internal debt are negatively related to the real gross domestic product but has effect on the economic growth, external debt is negatively related but has no effect to the economic growth. Whereas in the long run model, internal debt and debt service are also negatively related to the real gross domestic product but significant to the economic growth, external debt is positively related but has no effect to the economic growth. The study concluded that public debt and economic growth have long-run relationship, and they are positively related if the government will create the value that citizens desired by being sincere with the loan obtained and use it for the development of the economy rather than channel the funds to their personal benefit.</p>

scholarly journals A Model to Simulate the Dynamics of Public Debt Sustainability in EU

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-96
Author(s):  
Ada Cristina Marinescu ◽  
Lucian-Liviu Albu
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Maastricht Treaty ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
General Process ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
The Public ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Number Of Classes

AbstractLast decades the public debt increased continuously in all countries of European Union. At present, in many countries this dangerous growth is seriously affecting the general process of economic development. Although in a number of countries the public debt is today larger than 60% of GDP, as the imposed limit by Maastricht Treaty, the problem of its sustainability is varying from country to country. Following old and recent published studies in matter of public debt sustainability, one objective of our study is to analyse the existence of a convergence or a divergence process both at the level of the whole EU and within the two major groups of countries (EU14 – old members of EU, after Brexit, and respectively EU11 – new eastern members adhered to EU after 2000). Other objective is to build a model to simulate the long term dynamics of the public debt as a function of standard variables (such as GDP growth, interest rate, budgetary deficit, etc.). Moreover, by using recent data from Eurostat, IMF, and World Bank, we try to estimate few essential parameters in order to control the public debt sustainability in each country of EU. Finally, countries are grouped in a number of classes for which certain policy measures could be evaluated.

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