scholarly journals EVALUATION OF WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS

2016 ◽  
pp. 197-206
Author(s):  
V. I. Salygin ◽  
I. I. Litvinyuk
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
System Development ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
World Energy ◽  
Worldview Formation ◽  
Expert Community ◽  
Global Systems

What are the future global systems developments? It remains one the biggest unknown, especially in terms of energy, as it is globally considered as both cause and solution for multiple problems of the humanity. Therefore, nowadays a number of experts are exploring driving forces, critical uncertainties and unknowns that have an influence on future energy systems development. This article aims at providing a brief investigation of existing world energy scenarios that cover the range of plausible outcomes of future global energy system development. Those are represented by International Energy Agency, World Energy Council, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and others. The analysis covers both qualitative and quantitative indicators of the world energy system development that provide for future worldview formation. The article looks into various approaches to energy system development forecasting and scenario building employed by the abovementioned organisations, and discovers the motives for making assumptions as the means of attaining internal targets and the consequences of the distinction of individual attitude to the development trends within the expert community. The current assessment implies grouping of the most advanced of the existing energy system development models, identification their advantages and disadvantages, and shows differences in modeling approaches used in a number of specialized international organisations.

Has the 'Golden Age of Gas' bypassed Australia?

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 134
Author(s):  
Joshua Stabler
Keyword(s):  
Golden Age ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
World Energy ◽  
The World ◽  
World Energy Outlook ◽  
Australian Experience ◽  
Domestic Electricity

In June 2011, the International Energy Agency released the 2011 World Energy Outlook (WEO) series that posed the thought-provoking question: ‘Are we entering a golden age of gas?’ In response to this bold question, this paper first investigates the world’s electricity supply by each fuel type and how the WEO expectations have changed over time. This helps define the progress of the world targets for the ‘Golden Age of Gas’. To provide context to Australian gas conditions, this paper delves deeply into two of the most important international markets in the world: USA and China. Each of these countries are placed in the five fastest growing gas production countries in the world but have had substantially different engagements with gas and their domestic electricity profiles. Each country’s response to the electricity generation-source dilemma has resulted in diametrically opposed carbon emission outcomes. Finally, this paper turns to the Australian experience with gas. As the fifth fastest growing gas producing nation, and now the largest liquefied natural gas exporter in the world, Australia has rapidly shifted from energy price isolation to having strong links to international energy prices. These international price linkages have been applied across both gas and coal markets and have occurred simultaneously with the combination of a wave of renewable energy construction, traditional energy generation exit and paralysed government policy. This leaves a revised question: has the Golden Age of Gas passed Australia?

scholarly journals La stabilité de l’OPEP

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 503-526
Author(s):  
The-Hiep Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Energy Field ◽  
World Energy ◽  
Petroleum Sector ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Near Future

In the energy field and more specifically in the petroleum sector, several models have been developed with a view to determining long-term price strategies and supply and demand flows without considering the sector in question from an oligopolistic perspective : institutions have been excluded from these models. This study explicitly recognizes the importance of variables often characterized as extra-economic and proposes to examine the degree of OPEC's stability. Among the factors that could negatively influence this stability are bilateral oil agreements, the coalition of consumer countries within the International Energy Agency and rivalry among the members of OPEC. The respective weight of each of these factors has been carefully examined. On the other hand, an oil price indexing formula accepted and respected by all parties concerned would ensure the stability of this organization. However, stability via indexing is unlikely as it is difficult to find a formula acceptable to all parties. It is therefore to be anticipated that the world energy and petroleum situation in the near future will be a function of the policies of the two poles : the United States, the largest consumer, and Saudi Arabia, the largest producer. The functions-objectives of these two countries have also been examined in order to derive a number of specific hypotheses relative to the eventual evolution of the energy and petroleum sector.

scholarly journals Eco-turbina. Turbo ventilador eléctrico 220 (VAC) – 50 (Hz), de bajo consumo: eficiente energéticamente

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Ibar Federico Anderson
Keyword(s):  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
World Energy ◽  
The Future ◽  
El Sistema ◽  
World Energy Outlook ◽  
On Line ◽  
Energy Efficiency Policies ◽  
Global Exchange ◽  
Pas 2050

Según el WorldEnergy Outlook 2017[1]  publicado por la Agencia Internacional de la Energía (AIE)[2] se evidencian algunas tendencias en el sistema energético mundial, en donde los motores eléctricos representarán un tercio del aumento de la demanda de energía eléctrica. Este aumento significa que millones de hogares agregarán electrodomésticos y sistemas de refrigeración. Recientemente la Agencia publicó un muy completo estudio[3] sobre la situación del uso de aires acondicionados[4] en el mundo. En la República Argentina, informes anuales de CAMMESA[5]: 2007 y 2016 indican que en ese período hubo un aumento del 45% en el consumo eléctrico en todos los sectores, lo que significa un problema en la generación y transmisión de energía. Se tornó una necesidad todas las medidas que se puedan tomar en sentido de la Eficiencia Energética (EE); lo que por otro lado significa una oportunidad en el diseño y desarrollo de productos industriales más eficientes en el consumo de la energía eléctrica. En clara orientación con esta línea ética de reducción de la huella de carbono[6] y sustentada científicamente en el impacto ambiental, se desarrolló una turbina eléctrica de 220 (voltios), 50 (Hz) de corriente alterna (AC), para ser aplicado a motores de ventiladores[7]. Reduce un 59% el consumo de energía eléctrica, medida en kWh (kilo-Watts-hora), que es el modo en que se factura el consumo de energía. Según la Norma IRAM 62480:2017 se obtuvo una EE Tipo: A. Con un consumo de energía inferior a 55% del valor nominal; lo que representa 15 kWh/mes, valor que se calcula durante una (1) hora por día a máxima potencia (25 vatios para el prototipo). Cabe destacar queexisten normasIE[8] de eficiencia energética para motores eléctricos, que no se pudieron constatar, dado que exceden a los recursos disponibles para este trabajo. El objetivo ha consistido en aproximarnos de un modo más simple (tecnología) y económico (costos) a los variadores de frecuencia (VDF)[9] o drivers, que son una tecnología que reduce la energía eléctrica, manteniendo constante la relación tensión/frecuencia (volts/hertz) con una electrónica compleja y costosa (como los transistores bipolares de puerta aislada: IGBTs). Aquí se ha resuelto el problema manteniendo no-constante la relación (V/Hz) con un Triac BT 137 para uso en motores de inducción monofásicos de 220 (V), 50 (Hz) de corriente alterna (AC). Para construir esta tecnología menos costosa (económicamente) y menos compleja (electrónicamente), se analizó la existencia -probada en el mercado-de otras aplicaciones tecnológicas similares, que puedan ser adaptadas y ensambladas a otras tecnologías también existentes; y que este ensamble pueda ser realizado de modo barato y funcional. Este control de potencia para motores a-sincrónicos fue utilizado en un motor sincrónico de tipo PMSM. Las actividades llevadas a cabo para la construcción del prototipo son: adoptar un motor sincrónico de tipo PMSM (con rotor de imanes parmanentes de ferrite) obtenido a partir del estator de una electrobomba de lavavajillas de 65 (watts) de potencia, acoplado a las paletas de un rotor de un motor a-sincrónico de espiras de sombra[10] de microondas; que se controla mecatrónicamente con un control de potencia de disparo por Triac BT137 atenuador de onda de tensión (Voltios) e intensidad de la corriente (Amperios).     [1] International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2017 [On line]. Available:  https://www.iea.org/weo2017/ [Accessed: 25-jan-2019] [2] International Energy Agency. Energy Efficieny. The global exchange for energy efficiency policies, data and analysis [On line]. Available:  https://www.iea.org/topics/energyefficiency [Accessed: 25-jan-2019] [3] International Energy Agency. The Future of Cooling. Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning [On line]. Available: https://webstore.iea.org/the-future-of-cooling [Accessed: 25-jan-2019] [4]El uso de aires acondicionados y ventiladores eléctricos para mantenerse fresco representa casi el 20% del total de la electricidad utilizada en los edificios de todo el mundo en la actualidad. [5] CAMMESA, Compañía Administradora del Mercado Mayorista eléctrico [<en línea]. Disponible en: http://portalweb.cammesa.com/default.aspx [Accedido: 25-ene-2019] [6]La huella de carbono se conoce como gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) emitidos por efecto directo o indirecto de un individuo, organización, evento o producto. Tal impacto ambiental es medido llevando a cabo un inventario de emisiones de GEI o un análisis de ciclo de vida (ACV), siguiendo normativas internacionales reconocidas, tales como ISO 14064, PAS 2050 o GHG Protocol entre otras.  [7] Los motores consumen el 46% del total mundial de electricidad (Fuente IEA: Efficiency Series, 2011). [8] La norma IEC 60034-30-1 es la que establece el Código IE de eficiencia en motores eléctricos. [9] La IEC 61800-9-2 se focaliza en la interacción de motores con los variadores de frecuencia (VFD). El 40% y el 60% de todos los sistemas de motores se beneficiarían del uso adecuado de los drivers. [10] Espira de defrager o espira de arranque (espira en cortocircuito).

scholarly journals The Indian Republic in the global energy markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 502-509
Author(s):  
Nikolay P. Gusakov ◽  
Yulia A. Konovalova ◽  
Sayar Akhmad Reshad
Keyword(s):  
Energy Security ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
World Energy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Republic

Energy is an integral part of the economic security of any state, and it is more complex, the lower the degree of provision with its mineral resources and the higher the number of the population living in the country. Being the undisputed world leaders in terms of population (1.4 billion people and 1.3 billion people), China and India are concerned about ensuring the energy security of their national economies. According to the latest forecasts formed by the International Energy Agency, by 2040, these two countries will become world leaders in terms of imports of mineral products (in this case: crude oil and natural gas). China is the world leader in exporting goods; India is implementing an economic and industrial policy to turn the country into a world manufacturing hub. In this regard, providing countries with energy resources is one of the most critical tasks. At the same time, a significant problem is a dependence on regular supplies of raw materials and world prices for energy carriers. Respectively, countries should pursue a policy of diversification of suppliers of mineral products. The subject of this study is the Republic of India and its position in the world energy markets; issues of energy security and energy policy are also highlighted.

Repositioning gas in the power generation mix

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 647
Author(s):  
Martin Wilkes
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
World Energy ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Since the turn of the century, gas has been highlighted as the transition fuel to a lower emissions world, and, in 2011, the International Energy Agency published a special report entitled ‘Are we entering the golden age of gas’, which indicated that gas use could rise by over 50% to provide more than 25% of world energy demand by 2035. Even though gas use has risen in tandem with the increase in renewable energy, over the past decade, coal has been the fastest growing fuel because developing countries choose cheap power to provide their growing energy needs. Gas has been, and continues to be, subject to a green, cheap squeeze; squeezed by cleaner renewables on the one hand, and cheaper coal on the other. This paper will look at the impact that increasing amounts of renewable energy has on existing power generation and supply systems, and provide insights into the potential range of outcomes in emission levels, and the need to not only discuss renewable energy target, but to also understand the total energy mix, and the need to reposition gas from a transition fuel to the natural long-term companion of renewables.

Research Design, Scoping Tools, and Preview

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Araújo
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Field Work ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Technology Learning ◽  
Energy Technologies ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

This chapter outlines the design of the current study. It discusses my underlying logic for scoping energy system change with theory-building in the form of (1) a framework on intervention that operationalizes insights from the previous chapter and (2) conceptual models of structural readiness. A brief review then follows of related, global developments to provide broader context for the cases. The chapter concludes with a preview of the transitions that will be discussed in depth in subsequent chapters. This book draws on my research of four national energy system transitions covering the period since 1970. I selected a timeframe that reflected a common context of international events which preceded as well as followed the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. Such framing allowed me to trace policy and technology learning over multiple decades for different cases. I completed field work for this project primarily between 2010 and 2012, with updates continuing through to the time this book went to press. I selected cases from more than 100 countries in the International Energy Agency (IEA) databases. The ones that I chose represented countries which demonstrated an increase of 100% or more in domestic production of a specific, low carbon energy and the displacement of at least 15 percentage points in the energy mix by this same, low carbon energy relative to traditional fuels for the country and sector of relevance. I utilized adoption and displacement metrics to consider both absolute and relative changes. Final cases reflect a diversity of energy types and, to some extent, differences in the socio-economic and geographic attributes of the countries. The technologies represent some of the more economically-competitive substitutes for fossil fuels. It’s important to emphasize that the number of cases was neither exhaustive nor fully representative. Instead, the cases reflect an illustrative group of newer, low carbon energy technologies for in depth evaluation. Each of the cases shares certain, basic similarities. These include a national energy system comprised of actors, inputs, and outputs with systemic architecture connecting the constituent parts in a complex network of energy-centered flows over time—including extraction, production, sale, delivery, regulation, and consumption.

scholarly journals Exploring Energy Pathways for the Low-Carbon Transformation in India—A Model-Based Analysis

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linus Lawrenz ◽  
Bobby Xiong ◽  
Luise Lorenz ◽  
Alexandra Krumm ◽  
Hans Hosenfeld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Transformation Process ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Energy System Model ◽  
Technical Parameters ◽  
Energy Pathways

With an increasing expected energy demand and current dominance of coal electrification, India plays a major role in global carbon policies and the future low-carbon transformation. This paper explores three energy pathways for India until 2050 by applying the linear, cost-minimizing, global energy system model (GENeSYS-MOD). The benchmark scenario “limited emissions only” (LEO) is based on ambitious targets set out by the Paris Agreement. A more conservative “business as usual” (BAU) scenario is sketched out along the lines of the New Policies scenario from the International Energy Agency (IEA). On the more ambitious side, we explore the potential implications of supplying the Indian economy entirely with renewable energies with the “100% renewable energy sources” (100% RES) scenario. Overall, our results suggest that a transformation process towards a low-carbon energy system in the power, heat, and transportation sectors until 2050 is technically feasible. Solar power is likely to establish itself as the key energy source by 2050 in all scenarios, given the model’s underlying emission limits and technical parameters. The paper concludes with an analysis of potential social, economic and political barriers to be overcome for the needed Indian low-carbon transformation.

scholarly journals Managing the Energy Trilemma in the Philippines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josef T. Yap ◽  
Aaron Joseph P. Gabriola ◽  
Chrysogonus F. Herrera
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
World Energy ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Expanded Concept

Abstract Background The transition to an energy mix with lower carbon emissions is hampered by the existence of the so-called energy trilemma. The primary consequence is a trade-off between various objectives of energy policy, e.g., equity and sustainability. This paper proposes a framework and methodology to manage the trilemma by applying methods related to multi-criteria decision making in order to assign weights to the various components of the trilemma.Results Following the International Energy Agency (IEA), an expanded concept of energy security is adopted and translates to a version of the trilemma different from that of the World Energy Council. This study takes into account autarky, price, supply, and carbon emissions. The values of these variables are generated by a software called PLEXOS and are incorporated in a welfare function. Trade-offs and complementarities among the four variables are taken into account by the equations in the PLEXOS model. Meanwhile, weights for each of the components of the trilemma are obtained using the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The experts interviewed for this exercise are considered hypothetical heads of the Philippine Department of Energy (DOE).Conclusion Two scenarios were compared: a market-based simulation and one where a carbon-tax was imposed. The ranking clearly depended on the preferences of the hypothetical heads of the DOE. Policy options can, therefore, be ranked using the values generated by the welfare function. In this manner, trade-offs are measured and the trilemma can be managed even if it is not resolved.

scholarly journals Managing the energy trilemma in the Philippines

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Josef T. Yap ◽  
Aaron Joseph P. Gabriola ◽  
Chrysogonus F. Herrera
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
World Energy ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Background The transition to an energy mix with lower carbon emissions is hampered by the existence of the so-called Energy Trilemma. The primary consequence is a trade-off between various objectives of energy policy, e.g., equity and sustainability. This conflict can lead to policy gridlock if policymakers are unable to prioritize the goals. This paper proposes a framework and methodology to manage the trilemma by applying methods related to multi-criteria decision-making in order to assign weights to the various components of the trilemma. Results Following the International Energy Agency (IEA), an expanded concept of energy security is adopted and translates to a version of the trilemma different from that of the World Energy Council. This study takes into account autarky, price, supply, and carbon emissions. The values of these variables are generated by a software called PLEXOS and are incorporated in a welfare function. Trade-offs and complementarities among the four variables are taken into account by the equations in the PLEXOS model. Meanwhile, weights for each of the components of the trilemma are obtained using the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The experts interviewed for this exercise are considered hypothetical heads of the Philippine Department of Energy (DOE). Conclusion Two scenarios were compared: a market-based simulation and one where a carbon-tax was imposed. As expected, the carbon-tax leads to a fall in the level of carbon emissions but a rise in the cost of electricity. Because the demand for electricity has a higher price elasticity among lower income classes, the carbon-tax will worsen equity. Attempting to resolve the conflict among the goals of energy policy is difficult leading to a possible gridlock. Policy options can, however, be ranked using the values generated by the welfare function. The ranking clearly depends on the preference or priorities of the hypothetical head of the DOE but at least a decision could be reached. In this manner, trade-offs are measured and the trilemma can be managed even if it is not resolved.

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