scholarly journals STUDI RISIKO DAN BIAYA PADA TAHAP PERENCANAAN PROYEK KONSTRUKSI BANGUNAN INDUSTRI MIGAS (STUDI KASUS: PROYEK X)

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 99
Author(s):  
Mathawi Mathawi ◽  
Johny Johan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Production Plant ◽  
Crystal Ball ◽  
Cost Study ◽  
Planning Stage ◽  
Investment Appraisal ◽  
The Impact

Industri konstruksi untuk bangunan industri khususnya industri MIGAS sangat rentan terhadap risiko ketidakpastian karena sifat bisnisnya dari penilaian investasi awal proyek sampai dengan penyelesaian fisik diakhir proyek. Dan juga sangat rentan terhadap bahaya jika tidak ada langkah langkah yang tepat dan tindakan pencegahan yang diambil, terutama dalam mengelola risiko dan ketidakpastian. Manajemen risiko memastikan bawah risiko dapat diidentifikasi, diperiksa dan dimitigasi dimana para stakeholder sebagai kunci dalam setiap pengambilan keputusan. Penerapan manajemen risiko dalam suatu proyek sangat diperlukan agar tingkat keberhasilannya tinggi dan menghasilkan keuntungan yang tinggi pada tim proyek. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan studi risiko dan biaya dengan mengidentifikasi, mengevaluasi terhadap laporan HAZOP studi terhadap dampak biaya. Analisis risiko dan biaya dievaluasi  dengan menggunakan  metode simulasi Monte Carlo dengan bantuan perangkat lunak Crystall Ball Versi 11.1.2.3 untuk menentukan konsekuensi risiko dan biaya apa saja yang paling signifikan dalam suatu sistim pada instalasi produksi dan kelayakan suatu proyek untuk dapat dilanjutkan pada tahap konstruksi. Studi Risiko dan biaya pada tahap FEED (perencanaan awal) dengan mengevaluasi laporan HAZOP dilakukan dengan teknik probabilitas menggunakan bantuan software crystal ball Ver.11.1. Dari hasil simulasi pada tingkat keyakinan 90% diperoleh nilai rentang risiko yang masuk dalam kategori Low (rendah) berdasarkan spesifikasi ring rangking dari pihak OWNER. Sedangkan estimasi biaya proyek berdasarkan standar AACE pada tingkat keyakinan 90% masih berada dalam pada rentang nilai biaya tersebut. The construction industry for industrial buildings, especially the Oil and Gas industry, is very vulnerable to the risk of uncertainty because of the nature of its business from the initial investment appraisal of the project to the physical completion at the end of the project. And it is also very vulnerable to danger if there are no appropriate steps and precautions taken, especially in managing risks and uncertainties. Risk management ensures that risks can be identified, examined and mitigated by which stakeholders are key in every decision making. The application of risk management in a project is very necessary so that the success rate is high and produces high profits on the project team. In this research, a risk and cost study is carried out by identifying, evaluating the HAZOP study report on the impact of costs. Risk and cost analysis is evaluated using the Monte Carlo simulation method with the help of the Crystall Ball software Version 11.1.2.3 to determine the consequences of the most significant risks and costs in a system at a production plant and the feasibility of a project to proceed at the construction stage. Risk and cost studies at the FEED (initial planning) stage by evaluating the HAZOP report were carried out using probability techniques using the help of crystal ball software Ver.11.1. From the simulation results at a 90% confidence level, the risk range values are included in the Low category based on the ring rank specifications of the OWNER. While the estimated project costs based on AACE standards at a 90% confidence level are still within the range of these cost values.

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: A PROPOSED SCHEME

1997 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 714
Author(s):  
H.B. Goff ◽  
R.K. Steedman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Environmental Risk Management ◽  
The Impact

Environmental risk assessment is becoming an increasingly important factor in the assessment process for new projects. The oil and gas industry is familiar with assessing and managing risks from a wide range of sources. In particular, risk assessment and management is fundamental to the evaluation and implementation of Safety cases. Risk assessment is essential in valuing exploration acreage. Various industry and government risk management standards and criteria have been developed for public and occupational health and safety.This paper examines the extension of these approaches to environmental risk management for the offshore oil and gas industry and proposes a conceptual management scheme.We regard risk as the probability of an event occurring and the consequences of that event. The risk is classified into four categories, namely:primary risk, which relates to the mechanical oilfield equipment;secondary risk, which relates to the natural transport processes. For example dispersion of oil in the water column and surrounding sea;the tertiary risk, which relates to the impact on some defined part of the physical, biological or social environment; andthe quaternary risk, which relates to the recovery of the environment from any impact.Generally the methods of quantitatively analysing primary and secondary risks are well known, while there remains considerable uncertainty surrounding the tertiary and quaternary risk and they are at best qualitative only. An example of the method is applied to coral reef and other sensitive areas which may be at risk from oil spills.This risk management scheme should assist both operators and regulators in considering complex environmental problems which have an inherent uncertainty. It also proves a systematic approach on which sound environmental decisions can be taken and further research and analysis based. Perceived risk is recognised, but the management of this particular issue is not dealt with.

Measuring river planform changes from remotely-sensed data: A Monte-Carlo approach to assess the impact of spatially-variable geometric error.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothée Jautzy ◽  
Pierre-Alexis Herrault ◽  
Valentin Chardon ◽  
Laurent Schmitt ◽  
Gilles Rixhon
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Independent Set ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Geometric Error ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
River Planform ◽  
Active Channels ◽  
The Impact

<p>A majority of European rivers have been extensively affected by diverse anthropogenic activities, including e.g. channelization, regulation and sediment mining. Against this background, the planimetric analysis based on remotely-sensed data is frequently used to evaluate historical planform changes, eventually leading to quantification of migration rates. However, geometric spatially-variable (SV) error inherently associated with these data can result in poor or even misleading interpretation of measured changes, especially on mid-sized rivers. We therefore address the following issue: What is the impact of spatially-variable error on the quantification of surfacic river planform changes?</p><p>Our test river corresponds to a 20 m wide meandering sub-tributary of the Upper Rhine, the Lower Bruche. Within four, geomorphologically-diverse sub-reaches, the active channel is digitised using diachronic orthophotos (1950; 1964) and the SV-error affecting the data is interpolated with an Inverse Distance Weighting technique based on an independent set of ground control points. As a second step, the main novelty of our approach consists in running Monte-Carlo (MC) simulations to randomly translate active channels according to the interpolated SV-error. This eventually allows to display the relative margin of error (RME) associated with measured eroded and/or deposited surfaces for each sub-reach through MC simulations, illustrating the confidence level in the respective measurements of our river planform changes.</p><p>Our results suggest that (i) SV-error strongly affects the significance of measured changes and (ii) the confidence level might be dependent not only on magnitude of changes but also on their shapes. Taking SV-error into account is strongly recommended, regardless of the remotely-sensed data used. This is particularly true for mid-sized rivers and/or low amplitude river planform changes, especially in the aim of their sustainable management and/or restoration. Finally, our methodology is transferrable to different fluvial styles.</p>

Understanding the Impact of Monsoon Season in Malaysia Water Based on Data Analytics for Planning and Executing Drilling Operation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahimah A. Halim ◽  
M. Hatta M. Yusof ◽  
M. Hanafi M. Khalid ◽  
Hao Xiang Wong ◽  
M. Aizat Abu Bakar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Weather Condition ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Distribution Analysis ◽  
Planning Stage ◽  
Drilling Operation ◽  
Drilling Rig ◽  
Operation Stage ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Drilling operation in Malaysia are typically from offshore, thus offshore weather condition does contributed to the success or delay of a drilling operation. Wait on Weather (WOW) especially during monsoon season in Malaysia has impacted Operator's drilling operation, thus incurring additional cost to Operator. Monsoon season in Malaysia is typically from November to February every year. This paper will discuss and share the statistics of actual WOW happening from 2008 to 2019 in Malaysia water especially for jack-up rig (JUR) and tender assisted drilling rig (TADR) which are two common rigs in Malaysia water. The data was collected from one of the drilling operator in Malaysia. These data will be of assistance to Operator in better planning and executing drilling operation with the actual statistics as the risk factor. WOW is considered as non-productive time (NPT), thus NPT data gathering from Operators in Malaysia water were conducted. Data was then filtered to achieve the WOW data. WOW data was segregated between region in Malaysia which are Peninsular Malaysia (PM), Sabah (SB) and Sarawak (SK) as well as rig type, which are JUR and TADR. Distribution analysis were made to calculate the average and observe the maximum numbers of actual WOW occurrence. Further analysis was made to zoom into monsoon season in Malaysia which typically in November to February. 11 years data is generally good coverage for the analysis since it covers the up and down of oil and gas industry. Analysis was also done for both mob/demob and operation stage where it can be observed that WOW for mob/demob stage during monsoon season is significantly higher compared to operation stage. At the end of the analysis, the average or maximum numbers of WOW will be shared, and it will be used as recommendation for future projects to consider these figures as WOW risk factor and embed in the planning stage. This paper will help not only Operators in Malaysia water but the host authority on understanding the WOW risk factor during monsoon season. As WOW is not something that can be predicted, utilizing the standard results from actual statistic data for the past 11 years will assist engineers to incorporate the WOW risk factor during planning and execution stage. Rig and project sequencing can be optimized with understanding of WOW impact thus reducing the value leakage during operation due to WOW.

scholarly journals Implementation of Operational Risk Management to Mitigate Employee Fraud in Banking Companies: Case Study at PT AAA

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dewi Hanggraeni ◽  
Muhammad Chandika Andintyas
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Operational Risk ◽  
Operational Risk Management ◽  
Employee Fraud

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menggambarkan potensi kerugian akibat tindakan Fraud internal karyawan dengan menggunakan studi kasus pada PT AAA di tahun 2020 beserta mitigasinya. Data yang digunakan adalah data kerugian bulanan yang dialami PT AAA periode 2012 sampai dengan 2019. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Metode kuantitif dilakukan dengan melakukan analisis perhitungan terhadap data primer, sedangkan metode kualitatif dilakukan dengan melakukan wawancara terhadap beberapa narasumber. Untuk mengukur potensi kerugian, penelitian ini menggunakan rumus Monte Carlo dan proses perhitungan potensi kerugian dibantu dengan software Easyfit . Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa potensi kerugian yang berasal dari risiko operasional akibat tindakan fraud oleh internal karyawan dengan confidence level sebesar 95% adalah Rp 44.880.958.735,-, atau 9% dari laba bersih. Penelitian ini juga merumuskan risk register agar dapat menjadi acuan mitigasi risiko terkait sehingga mengurangi potensi kerugian dan meningkatkan nilai perusahaan.

Risk Management and Regulatory Failure in the Oil and Gas Industry in Nigeria: Reflections on the Impact of Environmental Degradation in the Niger Delta Region

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Ejoor Agbonifo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Delta Region ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Niger Delta Region ◽  
Regulatory Failure ◽  
The Impact

Risk management practice and effective policy intervention are critical to achieve stable environment and sustainable development. They are mechanisms for environmental management, environmental sustainability and sustainable community development for the people of the Niger Delta region. Informed by intuitive insights on the large scale of degradation in the Niger Delta, theoretical analysis of extant literature and content analysis of field interview/observation, this paper identified poor environmental risk management and regulatory failure as the bane of environmental degradation in the Niger Delta region. Why has regulatory agencies failed to protect communities against the impacts of environmental degradation and other consequences of oil and gas exploration activities? While there are enough legal and regulatory frameworks, however, weak enforcement and poor implementation of the existing regulations provides fertile ground for environmental degradation to persist. Thus, this article analyses some of the salient environmental issues as well as the regulatory and risk management failures in the oil and gas industry in Nigeria. It concludes that failure to carry out effective regulations and oversight in the oil and gas industry have resulted in environmental degradation (oil spills and gas flaring), contamination of water for fishing and farming activities, dispossession of rural farmers from their means of livelihood, poverty, migration and food shortages in the Niger Delta.

Consideration of Geopolitical Challenges within the Analysis of Geoenvironmental Risks for Oil and Gas Development of the Russian Arctic

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 50-59
Author(s):  
O. P. Trubitsina ◽  
V. N. Bashkin
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Optimal Operation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stage Model ◽  
Oil And Gas Development ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

The article is devoted to the consideration of geopolitical challenges for the analysis of geoenvironmental risks (GERs) in the hydrocarbon development of the Arctic territory. Geopolitical risks (GPRs), like GERs, can be transformed into opposite external environment factors of oil and gas industry facilities in the form of additional opportunities or threats, which the authors identify in detail for each type of risk. This is necessary for further development of methodological base of expert methods for GER management in the context of the implementational proposed two-stage model of the GER analysis taking to account GPR for the improvement of effectiveness making decisions to ensure optimal operation of the facility oil and gas industry and minimize the impact on the environment in the geopolitical conditions of the Arctic.The authors declare no conflict of interest

The Impact of Shariah Governance and Corporate Governance on the Risk Management Practices: Evidence from Local and Foreign Islamic Banks in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Sabri Embi ◽  
Zurina Shafii
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
T Test ◽  
The Body ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Shariah Governance ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of Shariah governance and corporate governance (CG) on the risk management practices (RMPs) of local Islamic banks and foreign Islamic banks operating in Malaysia. The Shariah governance comprises the Shariah review (SR) and Shariah audit (SA) variables. The study also evaluates the level of RMPs, CG, SR, and SA between these two type of banks. With the aid of SPSS version 20, the items for RMPs, CG, SR, and SA were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA). From the PCA, one component or factor was extracted each for the CG, SR, and RMPs while another two factors were extracted for the SA. Primary data was collected using a self-administered survey questionnaire. The questionnaire covers four aspects ; CG, SR, SA, and RMPs. The data received from the 300 usable questionnaires were subjected to correlation and regression analyses as well as an independent t-test. The result of correlation analysis shows that all the four variables have large positive correlations with each other indicating a strong and significant relationship between them. From the regression analysis undertaken, CG, SR, and SA together explained 52.3 percent of the RMPs and CG emerged as the most influential variable that impacts the RMPs. The independent t-test carried out shows that there were significant differences in the CG and SA between the local and foreign Islamic banks. However, there were no significant differences between the two types of the bank in relation to SR and RMPs. The study has contributed to the body of knowledge and is beneficial to academicians, industry players, regulators, and other stakeholders.

ANÁLISE DE CUSTOS DO FRANGO DE CORTE EM DIFERENTES NÍVEIS DE TECNOLOGIA DE AVIÁRIOS SOB A ÓTICA DA SIMULAÇÃO DE MONTE CARLO

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 112
Author(s):  
Patrícia Regina da Silva Zaluski ◽  
Maria José Pereira Dantas
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Crystal Ball

Neste artigo a Simulação de Monte Carlo (SMC) é aplicada de forma a exemplificar seu uso, avaliando o comportamento dos diferentes tipos de aviários em atender demandas simuladas, com base nas variáveis de preço e custo aplicados à indústria e produtor. O modelo foi implementado em Excel com o apoio do suplemento Crystal Ball. Ao final do artigo pode-se observar o comportamento dos subprodutos do frango de corte sob regime dos diferentes níveis de tecnologia de aviários. Concluiu-se que os aviários climatizados positivo e negativo apresentam semelhanças nos resultados alcançados na simulação, o que demonstra uma baixa relação custo/benefício no investimento em aviários climatizados negativos, pois necessitam de investimento inicial elevado. Este artigo considera uma análise superficial, contemplando apenas uma parcela do cenário real existente ao produtor.

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