scholarly journals Accounting for current and expected weather risks in crop production based on mathematical game theory

2020 ◽  
pp. 6-10
Author(s):  
К.А. Перевертин ◽  
В.И. Леунов ◽  
А.И. Белолюбцев ◽  
 Е.А. Симаков ◽  
Н.Н. Иванцова ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Adaptive Landscape ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Complete Uncertainty ◽  
Mathematical Game ◽  
Farm Scale ◽  
Weather Risks ◽  
Large Farms

Тенденции климатически обусловленных изменений – потепление, аридизация земель, деградация криолитозоны и т.п. могут быть учтены при стратегическом планировании АЛСЗ – адаптивно-ландшафтных систем земледелия (климат – одна из важнейших характеристик агроландшафтов). Однако наибольшую опасность представляют погодные риски, связанные с повышением нервозности климата. В настоящей работе нами рассматривается метод учета погодных рисков, где (внешне парадоксально) собственно метеопрогнозирование объявляется вторичным (а в условиях полной неопределенности по прогнозам – даже необязательным!). Описываемый метод компенсации рисков можно отнести к тактическим. В рамках математической теории игр, как условные игроки рассматриваются А (агроном) и П (природа/погода). Придерживаясь рассчитанной оптимальной стратегии, А минимизирует потери урожая при любых «капризах» П. Засевая 25% по технологии для влажного года (Х1), а 75% - по технологии для засушливого года (Х2), агроном гарантированно имеет цену игры 0,85 (условно-чистый доход), тогда как придерживаясь какой-либо только одной стратегии он гарантированно получит лишь 0,7 (для Х1) или 0,8 (для Х2). Оптимальным агрономическим решением будет применение на трети площадей технологии для засухи, а на двух третях – технологии для влажного года с осадками в неблагоприятный период. Полученные решения не носят характер универсальных региональных рекомендаций, но позволяют успешно оптимизировать агрономические решения в масштабах хозяйства. Для небольших (фермерских) хозяйств метод будет менее востребован. Однако крупные хозяйства (агрохолдинги) крайне заинтересованы в получении именно гарантированного уровня дохода, и организовать одновременное применение двух технологий на их достаточно развитой базе вполне возможно. Trends of climate-related changes – warming, aridization of land, degradation of the cryolithozone, etc. can be taken into account in the strategic planning of adaptive landscape systems of agriculture (climate is one of the most important characteristics of agricultural landscapes). However, the greatest danger is posed by weather risks associated with increased climate nervousness. In this paper, we consider a method for accounting for weather risks, where (seemingly paradoxical) the actual forecast is declared secondary (and even optional in conditions of complete uncertainty according to forecasts!). The described method of risk compensation can be classified as tactical. Within the framework of mathematical game theory, A (agronomist) and P (nature/weather) are considered as conditional players. Adhering to the calculated optimal strategy A minimize crop losses in any «whims» of the P. Sowing 25% of the technology for the wet year (X1) and 75% - technology for dry years (X2), the agronomist has guaranteed the price of the game 0,85 (conditionally net income), while any only one strategy guaranteed to get only 0.7 (for X1) or 0.8 (for X2). The optimal agronomic solution will be to use technology for drought in one third of the area, and technology for a wet year with precipitation in an unfavorable period in two thirds. The obtained solutions do not have the character of universal regional recommendations, but they allow us to successfully optimize agronomic solutions on a farm scale. For small farms, this method will be less popular. However, large farms (agricultural holdings) are extremely interested in obtaining a guaranteed level of income, and it is quite possible to organize the simultaneous use of two technologies on their sufficiently developed base.

scholarly journals Ecological aspects of biological function of agroecosystems

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.G. Smirnova ◽  
◽  
I.I. Mikhailenko ◽  
M.I. Evdokimenkova ◽  
A.A. Kuvshinova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Adaptive Landscape ◽  
Typical Chernozem ◽  
Potential Productivity ◽  
Stable Yield

he main goal of the study is to optimize the ratio of high potential productivity of winter wheat, environmental sustainability and environmental improvement functions at the level of the variety, agrocenosis, agroecosystem and agrolandscape. Research has been conducted since 2017 in a field experiment organized on the basis of an adaptive landscape approach. It was deployed on the plakor and slope of the southern exposure in parts 1-3° and 3-5°. The object of the research – varieties ‘Veselka’, ‘Synthetics’, and ‘Ariadna’ created in the Laboratory of breeding and seed production of winter wheat of Belgorod Federal Agricultural Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The ‘Almera’ variety was taken as the standard. The soil cover is represented by typical Chernozem. To improve the productivity of agricultural crops in conditions of slope agrolandscapes, it is advisable to choose and place the variety according to the selected microzone. It is necessary to cultivate the varieties at the specific plots of arable land with the most optimal parameters for the complex orographic, climatic and edaphic conditions for this variety, and in which plants will be able to give the highest yield. Thus, in plakor, it is advisable to give preference to cultivating ‘Ariadna’ and ‘Veselka’ varieties (6.2-6.3 t/ha). For slope microzones, the ‘Synthetics’ variety (4.4-5.3 t/ha) is well suited. The presented set of varieties gave stable yield in difficult conditions of erosive agricultural landscapes, thus can be considered as an innovative development in crop production.

A Game Theory Coopetitive Perspective for Sustainability of Global Feeding

2017 ◽  
pp. 100-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Carfì ◽  
Alessia Donato ◽  
Dania Panuccio
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Theory Model ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Food Producer ◽  
Mathematical Game ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Game Theory

Throughout this study, the authors propose possible agreements among different food producers, in order to develop a new better conceived diet for the future generations, by using a coopetitive approach and game theory. Specifically, the authors shall consider food producers and sellers of vegan (respectively, vegetarian) and non-vegan (or non-vegetarian) food. The coopetitive approach used by the authors provides a mathematical game theory model, which could help producers of vegan food a simpler entry in the market and free significant publicity. Meanwhile, the model could allow producers of non-vegetarian food a smooth transaction to vegetarian and vegan production. In particular, authors propose an agreement setting among McDonald's and Muscle of Wheat, because they think that Muscle of Wheat cannot enter a global market without the help of a large food producer already in the market. The game theory model represents an asymmetric R&D alliance between McDonald's and Muscle of Wheat.

Building multifunctionality into agricultural conservation programs: lessons learned from designing agroforestry systems with central Illinois landowners

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 313-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Christian Stanek ◽  
Sarah Taylor Lovell
Keyword(s):  
Design Process ◽  
Collaborative Design ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Conservation Policy ◽  
Agroforestry Systems ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Conservation Programs ◽  
Multifunctional Landscapes ◽  
The Usa

AbstractSince 1985, land retirement has been the primary approach used by the federal government for environmental protection of agricultural landscapes, but increasingly it is being supplemented by conservation initiatives on working lands. This shift logically supports agroforestry and other multifunctional approaches as a means to combine production and conservation. However, such approaches can be complex and difficult to design, contributing to the limited adoption in the USA. To understand and improve the integration of multifunctional landscapes into conservation programs, we worked with 15 landowners in a collaborative design process to build unique conservation plans utilizing agroforestry. We interviewed participants before and after the design process to examine the utility of a personalized design process, applicability of agroforestry to conservation programs and pathways to improve conservation policy. We found that landowners strongly preferred working in person for the design process, and being presented a comparison of alternative designs, rather than a single option, especially for novel systems. Agroforestry was seen as a viable method of generating conservation benefits while providing value to the landowners, each of whom stated they were more inclined to adopt such practices irrespective of financial assistance to do so. For conservation programs, landowners suggested reducing their complexity, inflexibility and impersonal nature to improve the integration of multifunctional practices that appeal directly to the practitioner's needs and preferences. These findings are valuable for conservation policy because they complement previous research theory suggesting the value of working collaboratively with landowners in the design of multifunctional landscapes. Personalized solutions that are developed based on the unique characteristics of the local landscape and the preferences of the individual landowner may be retained beyond a specified payment period, rather than being converted back into annual crop production.

scholarly journals Mathematical Game Theory in Civil Engineering Fire Safety

2019 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
pp. 03034
Author(s):  
Olga Shikuskaya ◽  
Galina Abuova ◽  
Ivan Vatunskiy ◽  
Mikhail Shikulskiy
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Fire Safety ◽  
Payoff Matrix ◽  
Problem Solution ◽  
Space Planning ◽  
Planning Decisions ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Mathematical Game ◽  
Theory Application ◽  
Theory Use

In the analysis of the project documentation of a two-storeyed sports complex it was established that despite compliance of the project to all standards in the fire safety field, under certain conditions there is a danger of a delay of full people evacuation from the gym room in case of fire that can entail people’s death. For the purpose of ensuring fire safety several versions of space-planning decisions were considered. The scientific literature analysis showed efficiency of game theory use in the field of fire safety, however in the field of fire safety in construction it was not applied yet. Game theory Application (games with the nature in the conditions of uncertainty) for the revealed problem solution was proved. Three possible scenarios of emergence and development of the fire and four alternative space-planning decisions were considered. For all development scenarios of the fire time of critical values achievement of dangerous fire factors was defined. All necessary evacuation schemes are made and calculations are executed. On the calculated parameters basis the payoff matrix was constructed. An optimal variant of space-planning decisions was chosen. Research results showed expediency and efficiency of game theory application in the field of fire safety in construction.

scholarly journals Risk Management Strategies to Reduce Net Income Variability for Farmers

1985 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Falatoonzadeh ◽  
J. Richard Conner ◽  
Rulon D. Pope
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Combination Strategy ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Price Risks ◽  
The Many

AbstractThe most useful and practical strategy available for reducing variability of net farm income is ascertained. Of the many risk management tools presently available, five of the most commonly used are simultaneously incorporated in an empirically tested model. Quadratic programming provides the basis for decisionmaking in risk management wherein expected utility is assumed to be a function of the mean and variance of net income. Results demonstrate that farmers can reduce production and price risks when a combination strategy including a diversified crop production plan and participation in the futures market and the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) is implemented.

scholarly journals Modeling the Supporting Ecosystem Services of Depressional Wetlands in Agricultural Landscapes

Wetlands ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 1061-1069
Author(s):  
David M. Mushet ◽  
Cali L. Roth
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Floral Resources ◽  
Depressional Wetlands ◽  
Native Plant ◽  
Des Moines Lobe ◽  
Des Moines

Abstract We explored how a geographic information system modeling approach could be used to quantify supporting ecosystem services related to the type, abundance, and distribution of landscape components. Specifically, we use the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model to quantify habitats that support amphibians and birds, floral resources that support pollinators, native-plant communities that support regional biodiversity, and above- and below-ground carbon stores in the Des Moines Lobe ecoregion of the U.S. We quantified services under two scenarios, one that represented the 2012 Des Moines Lobe landscape, and one that simulated the conversion to crop production of wetlands and surrounding uplands conserved under the USDA Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). While ACEP easements only covered 0.35% of the ecoregion, preserved wetlands and grasslands provided for 19,020 ha of amphibian habitat, 21,462 ha of grassland-bird habitat, 18,798 ha of high-quality native wetland plants, and 27,882 ha of floral resources for pollinators. Additionally, ACEP protected lands stored 257,722 t of carbon that, if released, would result in costs in excess of 45-million USD. An integrated approach using results from a GIS-based model in combination with process-based model quantifications will facilitate more informed decisions related to ecosystem service tradeoffs.

scholarly journals MAPPING OF AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES OF THE OUTLIER FOREST-STEPPE BASED ON GEOINFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES AND REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH

2021 ◽  
pp. 162-172
Author(s):  
Sergey V. Pashkov ◽  
◽  
Gulnur Z. Mazhitova ◽  
Sergey A. Teslenok ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Precision Agriculture ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Steppe Zone ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Adaptive Landscape ◽  
Natural Fertility ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Virgin Land ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Economic Formation

The search for new mechanisms of crop growing modernization was initiated by post-Soviet change of the socio-economic formation, rejection of the virgin-land holistic principle of organizing agriculture with its wheat invariant, as well as transition from the extensive zonal system to adaptive landscape and precision agriculture. Above all, this refers to agricultural landscapes of the forest steppe zone of North Kazakhstan, which is the oldest region of the country’s dryland farming. The article deals with a relevant direction of agrolandscape research – geoinformation agrolandscape mapping with the use of aerial photography materials from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). The aim of the work is to prepare optimal cartographic support for effective agricultural production in light of agricultural intensification in the region and depletion of natural fertility resources. Modern methods of geoinformation agrolandscape mapping have been used, their effectiveness is shown through the example of key areas. The features of the landscape structure of outlier forest steppe agrolandscapes have been identified with the help of utilitarian agroecological typology of land; the types of basic geoinformation cartographic materials to be used in precision agriculture have been defined. We consider it possible for the agrolandscape mapping experience to be extended to other farms of the region, which would ensure productive agricultural management.

scholarly journals SPATIAL-FUNCTIONAL METHOD LAND ORDER FORMATION OF AGRICULTURE LANDSCAPE RESISTANCE

2021 ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Artamonov ◽  
Maryna Vasylenko
Keyword(s):  
Land Management ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Functional Method ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
The State ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Landscape Resistance ◽  
Natural Conditions ◽  
Systematic Analysis

Peculiarities of natural conditions of the territory of Ukraine have historically determined mainly the agricultural use of its lands, the indirect consequence of which was the formation of agro-landscapes as a specific form of spatial realization of anthropogenic activity. The study of agrolandscapes, a comprehensive assessment of their condition and development trends, development and implementation of adequate land management solutions are a key task to avoid degradation, especially arable land. In the context of the above, the shortcomings of modern proposals and indicators for assessing the state of agricultural landscapes and their land management are considered and identified. Concerns about the recommendations of domestic scientists and practitioners to transform about 12 million hectares of arable land into other lands are justified. The motivation for this decision was the idea of excessive plowing of the territory of Ukraine, although world experience provides positive evidence of successful agriculture, even under such conditions. Allegations of insufficient study of the problem of land management formation of sustainable agrolandscapes are given. It is proposed to use the term "sustainable" for the agro-landscape, the state of which corresponds to the ecological and social-industrial conditions of land use. Systematic analysis of the structural components (lands) of the agro-landscape revealed the significant role of their interaction in creating and maintaining a microclimate favorable for crop production in adverse natural conditions. The legitimacy and expediency and practical efficiency of using the spatial-functional method of land management formation of the stability of agro-landscapes are substantiated. 

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document