Initial Stage of the Fight against COVID-19 Pandemic in China: A View from Inside

This publication represents a kind of literary essay about the fighting against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus at the very beginning of the pandemic, during the first days and even hours. The personal story may help to evaluate the situation of complete uncertainty on the first days of the pandemic all of us have already forgotten now. But to remember the first moods and the first steps is a very important thing, for avoidance of new crises during possible epidemics in the future and the panic associated with them. Looking at the problem from the inside helps to understand the worries, moods and feelings of Chinese people during the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Quantifying dating uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimate proxy archives

Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses; for example for identification and dating of stadial-interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer-counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The age-depth relationship of the joint dating uncertainties can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which realizations of the chronology can be sampled. We show how the effect of an unknown counting bias can be incorporated in our framework and present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard-Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings.

The effect of antiviral treatment on SARS-CoV-2 infectious disease progression: A comparison of the multi-state models

Combating SARS-CoV-2 is the first concern and goal of the whole world faced with the global health crisis. Since 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) and even mutated infection cases have been increasing rapidly. From 2019 through 27 August 2021, a total of 214,468,601 individuals were confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2, including 4,470,969 death toll. Some of these individuals were able to access treatment and some could not, but for a while there was complete uncertainty. It was not known whether those who accessed treatment were lucky, but treatment was based on trial and error because of this uncertainty around the world until data was collected. Therefore, the aim of this study was to model SARS-CoV-2 infectious disease progression from the date of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test to the date of negative outcome via Bayesian multi-state model approaches considering risk factors such as gender, age, and antiviral treatment. Data from 746 inpatients were collected from August 1st until the December 1st, 2020. For the multi-state model, five various discrete states were selected according to the Republic of Turkey Ministery of Health treatment algorithm. The results showed that Bayesian multi-state models with the Weibull distributed baseline hazard function were more appropriate models in the presence of risk factors and antiviral treatment.

HatchEnsemble: an efficient and practical uncertainty quantification method for deep neural networks

Quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Existing quantification approaches can be categorized into two lines. Bayesian methods provide a complete uncertainty quantification theory but are often not scalable to large-scale models. Along another line, non-Bayesian methods have good scalability and can quantify uncertainty with high quality. The most remarkable idea in this line is Deep Ensemble, but it is limited in practice due to its expensive computational cost. Thus, we propose HatchEnsemble to improve the efficiency and practicality of Deep Ensemble. The main idea is to use function-preserving transformations, ensuring HatchNets to inherit the knowledge learned by a single model called SeedNet. This process is called hatching, and HatchNet can be obtained by continuously widening the SeedNet. Based on our method, two different hatches are proposed, respectively, for ensembling the same and different architecture networks. To ensure the diversity of models, we also add random noises to parameters during hatching. Experiments on both clean and corrupted datasets show that HatchEnsemble can give a competitive prediction performance and better-calibrated uncertainty quantification in a shorter time compared with baselines.

Uncertainty Evaluation in Vision-Based Techniques for the Surface Analysis of Composite Material Components

In this paper, a methodology is discussed concerning the measurement of yarn’s angle of two different glass-reinforced polypropylene matrix materials, widely used in the production of automotive components. The measurement method is based on a vision system and image processing techniques for edge detection. Measurements of angles enable, if accurate, both useful suggestions for process optimization to be made, and the reliable validation of the simulation results of the thermoplastic process. Therefore, uncertainty evaluation of angle measurement is a mandatory pre-requisite. If the image acquisition and processing is considered, many aspects influence the whole accuracy of the method; the most important have been identified and their effects evaluated with reference to two different materials, which present different optical-type characteristics. The influence of piece geometry has also been taken into account, carrying out measurements on flat sheets and on a semi-spherical object, which is a reference standard shape, to verify the effect of thermoforming and to tune the process parameters. Complete uncertainty in the order of a few degrees has been obtained, which is satisfactory for purposes of simulation validation and consequent process optimization. The uncertainty budget also allowed individuation of the most relevant causes of uncertainty for measurement process improvement.

Fault2SHA Central Apennines database and structuring active fault data for seismic hazard assessment

We present a database of field data for active faults in the central Apennines, Italy, including trace, fault and main fault locations with activity and location certainties, and slip-rate, slip-vector and surface geometry data. As advances occur in our capability to create more detailed fault-based hazard models, depending on the availability of primary data and observations, it is desirable that such data can be organized in a way that is easily understood and incorporated into present and future models. The database structure presented herein aims to assist this process. We recommend stating what observations have led to different location and activity certainty and presenting slip-rate data with point location coordinates of where the data were collected with the time periods over which they were calculated. Such data reporting allows more complete uncertainty analyses in hazard and risk modelling. The data and maps are available as kmz, kml, and geopackage files with the data presented in spreadsheet files and the map coordinates as txt files. The files are available at: 10.1594/PANGAEA.922582.

The role of practical shooting in system of police shooting training: psychological component

Psychological unpreparedness of police officers to firefight is often the cause of serious consequences, in particular their death. Although much attention has been already paid to the psychological training of law enforcement officers in general and to the use of firearms in the scientific literature, such studies often just outline the problems, but do not suggest the ways to overcome them. The authors of the article aim to analyze the factors influencing the state of psychological readiness of a police officer to use a firearm while performing service duties, and to develop recommendations that should contribute to the formation of a state of psychological readiness, taking into account the specifics of practical shooting. It has been emphasized that firefight requires from a police officer not only skillful handling of weapons, but also a number of thought processes in a situation of partial or complete uncertainty, which affects the psychological readiness to use firearms. The authors have made an analogy between the situations of firefight of police officers while performing service duties and the conditions created for participants in practical shooting competitions. According to the authors, long-term training, regular practice of basic exercises to improve firearms skills, as well as the introduction of variability of scenarios for the deployment of firefight situations using elements of practical shooting can minimize the negative impact on the mental processes of police officers. It has been offered to introduce elements of practical shooting into the system of fire training of police officers and to improve the current Shooting Course, approved by the order of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine dated from April 26, 2019, No. 334, which should allow modeling multiple scenarios of police behavior in firefight situations during training shootings and increase the psychological readiness of police officers to use firearms.

METHOD OF RISK MANAGEMENT OF SCIENTIFIC PROJECT IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY AND BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS

The success of any project is to achieve the goal, get a unique product and meet the needs of stakeholders. Scientific projects are not an exception to the general rule, but have their own specifics and characteristics, in particular: complexity. The implementation of scientific projects takes place in conditions of complete uncertainty in the development of science, technology and engineering. To ensure the success of scientific projects, integrated risk management of scientific projects in conditions of uncertainty and behavioral economics was proposed. In order to implement it, it is proposed to develop methods of integrated risk management of stakeholders of scientific projects in conditions of uncertainty and behavioral economics, which take into account the assessment of personnel risks, conflicts and behavioral economics, as well as the calculation of "toxicity". These methods will help increase the efficiency of stakeholder management of scientific projects by reducing the negative effects of personnel risks, conflicts and behavioral economics. This study proposes the stages of integrated risk management of stakeholders of scientific projects in conditions of uncertainty and behavioral economics, based on the conceptual model of integrated risk management of scientific project conflicts in behavioral economics and the corresponding mathematical model. In addition, schemes for the implementation of the method of integrated risk management of stakeholders of scientific projects and the method of calculating indicators of "toxicity" of stakeholders of scientific projects are presented. The application of these methods will increase the efficiency of stakeholder management of scientific projects at the stage of initiation in the process of forming a register of project participants. In addition, they will reduce the likelihood of personnel risks, conflicts and behavioral economics associated with stakeholders in the implementation of scientific projects and will ensure the success of their implementation, obtaining a quality product and meeting the needs of stakeholders.

«HAMLET» BY WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE IN THE TRANSLATION AND CREATIVE UNDERSTANDING OF THE UKRAINIAN WRITERS OF THE NINETEENTH CENTURY

The article is devoted to a detailed analysis of the translations of the tragedy «Hamlet» by William Shakespeare in the context of the aesthetic views of Ukrainian writers of the nineteenth century. The idea that synchronous and diachronic consideration of the literary evolution of Hamlet’s image demonstrates the emergence of Hamletism as a certain aesthetic category is justified. A comparative analysis of the translations of Hamlet by Ukrainian authors was carried out. On the basis of research, it is established that the translator, as well as the reader, finds itself «between» texts of different cultures and literatures, that is, in a situation of complete uncertainty, cultural «border», by performing a double hermeneutic act of «decoding» «one’s» and «another’s» tradition available in the original and in its translation. The author concludes that Shakespeare at the world-philosophical level was close to the Ukrainian translators of the XIX century: the writers considered in Shakespeare’s works a timeless universality and a prehistoric dimension of the human personality, a peculiar human «monad», which can be different in different ways. It was observed that Ukrainian translators are united not only by language innovation, the attraction of deep layers of the Ukrainian language, but also the sole purpose – the cultural revival of the state through the revival of the language.

New experimental Nusselt number correlation for spiral plate heat exchanger optimized using a code

A system of a spiral plate heat exchanger and its required auxiliaries was built. The pitches of heat exchanger were built differently to provide almost two geometrically different heat exchangers in a single package. Several experiments were done and working parameters of the heat exchanger were measured. A code was written to find a new optimised correlation that could approximate the Nusselt Number based on the obtained experimental data from 51 reliable experiments. As an advantage, that correlation was valid for low Reynolds Numbers. Also, in most of previous works, the correlation for Nusselt Number in one side of the heat exchanger was supposed to be known and the correlation for the other side was determined. But, in this study, the equation was found using calculations for both sides simultaneously. The overal heat transfer coefficient calculated from the proposed correlation, made an average error of 3.65% to the experimental data. A complete uncertainty analysis was done and revealed that the results from the new correlation for the Nusselt Number lies between [Formula: see text] around the real Nusselt Number.