FORECAST OF TIME PROBABLE DISEASES IN PERIOD OF EPIDEMICS OF INFLUENZA AND CORONAVIRUS

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-43
Author(s):  
Vybornov Yu. D.
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Computer Programs ◽  
The Moon ◽  
Coordinate Systems ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Parents And Children ◽  
Simultaneous Prediction ◽  
Phases Of The Moon

Abstract. The purpose of the research is to determine the frequency of infection occurrence and use it for forecasting. According to the dates of human pathologies, the frequency of diseases (PZ) of 2400 parents and children, men and women was determined. To improve the accuracy of determining the PZ, astronomical units were used to record the time of occurrence of pathologies: 4 phases of the moon, 4 components of the moon's declination, and a day. The hereditary periodicity of diseases (NPD) was revealed, which is shown in graphic and digital forms. The refinery is used for predicting the time of probable acute infectious diseases and their complications. The goal of forecasting is to take timely preventive measures. 7 forecasting methods have been developed, 2 computer programs have been created that use different coordinate systems, and more than 1,600 computer forecasts have been made. With an error of + 1-4 days, 50% - 62% of diseases of children, women and men who were ill on average 3 times a year and more often are predicted. In 2014 registered application for invention No. 2014116101 "Method for simultaneous prediction of the time of probable acute infectious diseases of a person and the optimal date of vaccination". Rospatent's conclusion: ".. the invention can be implemented, but its practical applicability has not been confirmed." The implementation of the invention can be carried out in the period of the pandemic coronavirus. The conclusion about the "impracticability of forecasting" hinders the practical applicability of the invention and predicting the time of probable covid-19 diseases.

scholarly journals Spread of Epidemic Disease on Edge-Weighted Graphs from a Database: A Case Study of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4432
Author(s):  
Ronald Manríquez ◽  
Camilo Guerrero-Nancuante ◽  
Felipe Martínez ◽  
Carla Taramasco
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Weighted Graph ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Weighted Graphs ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
The Real

The understanding of infectious diseases is a priority in the field of public health. This has generated the inclusion of several disciplines and tools that allow for analyzing the dissemination of infectious diseases. The aim of this manuscript is to model the spreading of a disease in a population that is registered in a database. From this database, we obtain an edge-weighted graph. The spreading was modeled with the classic SIR model. The model proposed with edge-weighted graph allows for identifying the most important variables in the dissemination of epidemics. Moreover, a deterministic approximation is provided. With database COVID-19 from a city in Chile, we analyzed our model with relationship variables between people. We obtained a graph with 3866 vertices and 6,841,470 edges. We fitted the curve of the real data and we have done some simulations on the obtained graph. Our model is adjusted to the spread of the disease. The model proposed with edge-weighted graph allows for identifying the most important variables in the dissemination of epidemics, in this case with real data of COVID-19. This valuable information allows us to also include/understand the networks of dissemination of epidemics diseases as well as the implementation of preventive measures of public health. These findings are important in COVID-19’s pandemic context.

Infectious Diseases as a Factor Influencing Demography. Historical and Medical Aspect

2020 ◽  
pp. 54-62
Author(s):  
Lyudmila Kaspruk
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Medical Aspect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Improving Health Care

Taking into consideration the forecasts that infectious diseases will pose a significant risk of increasing mortality, as well as shortening life expectancy in the next period of time, an assessment of the impact of infectious diseases on demography in the historical and medical aspect allows us to confirm the existence of uniform combinations in creating a counter-strategy for improving health care. There is no doubt about the historical priority of preventive measures. In this sense, the scoring of infections according to the rating of ''demographic tension'' fully admits the possibility of identifying a vector for improving the work on combating infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Extraintestinal isosporoid coccidian causing atoxoplasmosis in captive green-winged saltators: clinical and hematological features

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (11) ◽  
pp. 1327-1330
Author(s):  
Sabrina D.E. Campos ◽  
Camila S.C. Machado ◽  
Tatiana V.T. de Souza ◽  
Renan C. Cevarolli ◽  
Nádia R.P. Almosny
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Clinical Improvement ◽  
Peripheral Blood ◽  
Inflammatory Process ◽  
Blood Smear ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Acute Disease ◽  
Illegal Trade ◽  
Hygienic Conditions

ABSTRACT: Populations of green-winged saltators, Saltator similis, are decreasing especially because of illegal trade and infectious diseases. We describe natural cases of an extraintestinal isosporoid coccidian in caged S. similis, and suggest the need of preventive measures in handling these birds. Nonspecific clinical signs were seen in all of them, however, intracytoplasmic Atoxoplasma sp. was found in peripheral blood, reinforcing the idea of systemic isosporosis. Leukocytosis with high number of heterophils and monocytes suggested that atoxoplasmosis in green-winged saltators can progress as an acute disease. The birds showed clinical improvement after treatment. Handling recommendations were proposed to upgrade hygienic conditions of the facilities. We concluded that nonspecific symptoms and an acute inflammatory process can be associated with atoxoplasmosis in young S. similis. We emphasize the importance of blood smear to detect merozoites.

THE PERSONAL IS POLITICAL: COVENANTAL AND AFFECTIONATE LOVE ('ĀHĒB, 'AHĂBÂ) IN THE HEBREW BIBLE

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Ackerman
Keyword(s):  
Interpersonal Relationships ◽  
Hebrew Bible ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Parents And Children

AbstractThis paper explores points of connection between texts describing Yahweh's covenantal love for Israel and texts concerning the interpersonal loving relationships of men and women and parents and children. Although these covenantal and interpersonal relationships are to be distinguished in many ways, they do hold certain features in common: both are construed in a way that is very one-sided, and, in both, it is typically

scholarly journals Phases of the moon: a study of 19th century scientific book illustrations providing a comprehensive catalogue for the first three editions of James Nasmyth & James Carpenter's The Moon: considered as a planet, a world, and a satellite

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Margaret Ramsey
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
Lunar Surface ◽  
Book Production ◽  
The Moon ◽  
Scientific Contribution ◽  
Amateur Astronomer ◽  
Book Illustrations ◽  
The Aesthetic ◽  
Phases Of The Moon

James Hall Nasmyth (1808–1890) was an accomplished engineer and amateur astronomer. The culmination of Nasmyth's drawings from telescopic observation, the advent of photomechanical print processes, and his interest in the causative features of the lunar surface, led to the 1874 publication of The Moon: Considered as a Planet, a World, and a Satellite. This thesis provides a comprehensive catalogue of the lunar illustrations in the first three editions, revealing the aesthetic variations in the illustrative plates due to reproduction and print processes used. These processes include: engraving, photogravure, heliotype, lithograph, chromolithograph, and four different variations of the Woodburytype. The editions are contextualized using scientific photographs as illustrations, through a discussion of astronomy, book production, and Nasmyth's biography. Through an examination of Nasmyth's use of photography and permanent print processes, this thesis argues that his lunar illustrations remain an important scientific contribution.

The structure of the main infectious diseases of farm animals in the border districts of the Badakhshan province of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 26-32
Author(s):  
G. Sh. Navruzshoeva ◽  
◽  
A. R. Nazarbekov ◽  
N. V. Pimenov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Farm Animals ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Islamic Republic ◽  
Predisposing Factor ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The Republic

A brief description is given on the spread of the main infectious diseases in the Badakhshan province, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. One of the main goals which the veterinary service of any country has is to prevent the spread of infectious animal diseases. The geographical location of the Badakhshan province, of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, becomes a predisposing factor for the spread of infectious diseases, especially the territory of the Republic of Tajikistan, which borders Afghanistan and is part of the union of independent countries, is especially vulnerable. Every year in the province of Badakhshan, various infectious diseases break out: foot and mouth disease, smallpox of sheep and chickens, contagious pleuropneumonia of goats, enterotoxaemia of sheep, emphysematous carbuncle. These diseases cause great economic damage to livestock and the national economy in general, some of them are included in the OIE list as transboundary diseases. Scientifically grounded research and veterinary, sanitary and preventive measures in Badakhshan province are an important task to prevent the spread of infectious diseases in the Central Asian region.

Knowledge, Information Sources, and Preventive Measures in response to the Infectious Diseases in Chinese Children and Adolescents: A national Cross-sectional Study (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Zeng ◽  
Feifei Li ◽  
Wei Liang ◽  
Yinyue Liu ◽  
Bin Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Prevention ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
Information Sources ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Chinese Children ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Living Situation ◽  
Chinese Children And Adolescents

BACKGROUND Infectious diseases are a priority in public health. Improving the knowledge and preventive measures of children and adolescents is important for disease prevention. Information sources play a crucial role in delivering disease-related knowledge. However, there is limited national-level evidence of the knowledge, information sources, and preventive measures in response to infectious diseases in Chinese children and adolescents. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to investigate the characteristics and interrelationships of knowledge, preventive measures of infectious diseases, and the information sources among Chinese children and adolescents. METHODS Participants in this cross-sectional study were embedded in a baseline survey of a national multi-centered cluster randomized controlled trial in seven provinces in China, using questionnaires to evaluate their level of knowledge and prevention measures, and the main source of information on infectious diseases. RESULTS A total of 30,287 children aged 6-17 years were enrolled. The mean scores of knowledge and preventive measures for infectious diseases were 2.35(SD=0.93) and 12.16 (SD=2.52), respectively. The majority of children and adolescents received information of infectious diseases through school (86.7%) and related groups (86.5%), followed by electronic media (73.4%). The results indicated that there were significant differences in knowledge and preventive measures among children and adolescents with different gender, age, children situation, living situation, residence, region, parents’ age and education level (P<0.05). In addition, multiple linear regression analysis showed that gender, age, living situation, residential area, region, mother's age, father's education level, knowledge score and main information source could better predict the score of preventive measures. Living with parents (vs Not living with parents; β=0.055 P<0.001), household income of 5000-10000 yuan (vs. Less than 5000 yuan; 0.024, P<0.001), south areas (vs. North: β=0.021), mother's age>35 years (vs.≤35years; 35-45 years: β=0.020, P=0.008; ≥45 years: β=0.022, P=0.005), father's education in high school/vocational school (vs. Junior high school and below; β=0.024, P=0.001), and high knowledge score (β=0.102, P<0.001) were more likely to have a high infectious disease prevention measures score(P<0.05). On the contrary, males (vs Females; β=-0.003, P<0.001), older (vs. 6-8 years; 12-14 years: β=-0.130, P<0.001;15-17years: β=-0.253, P<0.001), rural areas (vs. Urban; β=-0.023, P=0.001), central areas (vs. North; β=-0.036, P<0.001), and fathers aged 35-45 years (vs. ≤35 years; β=-0.021, P=0.009) were significantly associated with low infectious disease prevention measure scores(P<0.05). Interestingly, children or adolescents who accept information about infectious diseases through schools (vs. No; Yes: β=0.054, P<0.001) and paper media (vs. No; Yes: β=0.054, P<0.001) tend to score higher on measures to prevent infectious diseases(P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The national survey provides an overview of knowledge, information sources, and preventive measures in response to infectious diseases in Chinese children and adolescents. The research findings add values to the future intervention and policy-making for promoting the preventive measures of infectious diseases in children and adolescents.

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