scholarly journals Second Wave Analysis and Confirmed Forecasts of the SARS-Cov-2 Epidemic Outbreak in São Paulo, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 80-87
Author(s):  
Sergio Celaschi
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Basic Number ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Infected People ◽  
City Population ◽  
One Year ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
Second Wave

Objective: A SEIR compartmental model was previously selected to estimate future outcomes to the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic breakout in Brazil. Method: Compartments for individuals vaccinated and prevalent SARS-Cov-2 variants were not included. A time-dependent incidence weight on the reproductive basic number accounted for Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI). A first series of published data from March 1st to May 8, 2020 was used to adjust all model parameters aiming to forecast one year of evolutionary outbreak. The cohort study was set as a city population-based analysis. Analysis: A population-based sample of 25,366 confirmed cases on exposed individuals was used during the first study period. The analysis was applied to predict the consequences of NPI enforcements followed by progressive releases, and indicates the appearance of a second wave starting last quarter of 2020. Findings: By March 1st 2021, the number of confirmed cases was predicted to reach 0.47Million (0.24-0.78), and fatalities would account for 21 thousand (12-33), 5 to 95% CRI. A second series of data published from May 9, 2020 to March 1st, 2021 confirms the forecasts previously reported for the evolution of infected people and fatalities. Novelty: By March 1st 2021, the number of confirmed cases reached 527,710 (12% above the predicted average of accumulated cases) and fatalities accounted for 18,769 (10% below the accumulated average of estimated fatalities). After March 1st, new peaks on reported numbers of daily new infected and new fatalities appeared as a combined result to the appearance of the prevalent SARS-CoV-2 P1 variant, and the increased number of vaccinated individuals. Doi: 10.28991/SciMedJ-2021-03-SI-10 Full Text: PDF

scholarly journals Confirmed forecasts for the expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic in the S. Paulo city, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Celaschi
Keyword(s):  
Population Based ◽  
Basic Number ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Infected People ◽  
City Population ◽  
One Year ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
The City ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractAn epidemiological compartmental model reported on May, 2020 was previously selected to estimate future outcomes to the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic breakout in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil. A time-dependent incidence weight on the reproductive basic number accounted for the Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). A first series of official published data from March 1st to May 31st, 2020 was used to adjust the model parameters aiming to forecast one year of the COVID-19 evolutionary outbreak. The cohort study was set as a city population-based analysis. The population-based sample, 25,366 during the study period, was the number of confirmed cases on exposed individuals. The analysis was applied to predict the consequences of releasing the NPIs, and indicated the appearance of a second wave starting last quarter of 2020. By January 31st 2021, the number of confirmed cases was predicted to reach 0.49 Million (0.28-0.77), and fatalities would account for 22 thousand (11-32), 5 to 95% CRI. A second series of official data published from June 1st 2020 to January 31st, 2021 confirms all forecasts previously reported for the evolution of infected people and fatalities associated to this epidemic outbreak in the city of S. Paulo. By January 31st 2021, the official number of confirmed cases reached 469,657 (4 % above predicted average of accumulated cases), and fatalities accounted for 17,333 (19% above accumulated average of fatalities).

scholarly journals The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variant to COVID-19 Epidemic in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Celaschi
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Adopted Model ◽  
Data Points ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe impact of SARS-CoV-2 dominant global lineages to COVID-19 epidemics is for the first time modeled by an adaptation of the deterministic SEIR Model. Such a strategy may be applied worldwide to predict forecasts of the outbreak in any infected country. The objective of this study is to forecast the outcome of the epidemic in Brazil as a first cohort study case. The basic modeling design takes under consideration two of SARS-CoV-2 dominant strains, and a time-varying reproduction number to forecast the disease transmission behavior. The study is set as a country population-based analysis. Brazilian official published data from February 25 to August 30 2020 was employed to adjust a couple of epidemiological parameters in this cohort study. The population-based sample in this study, 4.2 Million Brazilians during the study period, is the number of confirmed cases on exposed individuals. Model parameters were estimated by minimizing the mean squared quadratic errors. The main outcomes of the study follows: The percentage values of non-symptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 hosts were estimated to be respectively (54 ± 9) % and (46 ± 9) %. By the end of 2020, the number of confirmed cases in Brazil, within 95% CI, is predicted to reach 6 Million (5-7), and fatalities would account for 180.103 (160–200).103. Estimated forecast obtained preserving or releasing the NPIs during the last quarter of 2020, are included. Data points for extra three weeks were added after the model was complete, granting confidence on the outcomes. In 2020 the total number of exposures individuals is estimated to reach 13 ± 1 Million, 6.2% of the Brazilian population. Regarding the original SARS-CoV-2 form and its variant, the only model assumption is their distinct incubation rates. The variant SARS-CoV-2 form, as predicted by the SEIR adopted model, reaches a maximum of 96% of exposed individuals as previously reported for South America. By the end of 2020, a fraction in the range of 15–35 percentages of susceptible Brazilian individuals is to be depleted. Sufficient depletion of susceptibility (by NPIs or not) has to be achieved to weaken the global dynamics spread.

MALIGNANT MELANOMA. EPIDEMIOLOGY, ANALYTICAL INDICATORS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ONCOLOGICAL SERVICES (POPULATION-BASED STUDY)

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-233
Author(s):  
Vakhtang Merabishvili
Keyword(s):  
Malignant Melanoma ◽  
Malignant Tumors ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Detailed Structure ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
One Year ◽  
Melanoma Epidemiology

Malignant melanoma of the skin (MMS) is less than 2% (1.74%) among all malignant tumors in Russia but this is more than 10,000 (10236-2015) of new cases. It is important to monitor the trend in dynamics of morbidity and mortality from this cause. From 1995 to 2015 a number of MMS primary cases was more than doubled in absolute numbers and “crude” rates. A slightly smaller increase is indicated by standardized indicators - 62.5% for men and 70.2% for women. Annually in Russia 3670 people die from MMS (2015), which is 1.2% of all cancer deaths. In recent years the previously revealed regularities have been largely preserved: lower rates of specific gravity detected in the early stages among people in the elderly and senile and in a smaller proportion in this group who received special treatment. At the same time a change in the detailed structure of the incidence of women has been revealed where currently the leading localization of MMS was not the lower extremities but the back. The index accuracy improved however the official statistics of the distribution of patients by stages of a disease was significantly distorted (weight of the early stages was increased from the real values). The index of one-year lethality and survival was significantly improved.

scholarly journals Impact of Coronavirus Outbreaks on Science and Society: Insights from Temporal Bibliometry of SARS and COVID-19

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 626
Author(s):  
Ramya Gupta ◽  
Abhishek Prasad ◽  
Suresh Babu ◽  
Gitanjali Yadav
Keyword(s):  
Published Data ◽  
Science And Society ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Scientific Publications ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Trends ◽  
Global Events ◽  
One Year ◽  
Personal Devices ◽  
Share Information

A global event such as the COVID-19 crisis presents new, often unexpected responses that are fascinating to investigate from both scientific and social standpoints. Despite several documented similarities, the coronavirus pandemic is clearly distinct from the 1918 flu pandemic in terms of our exponentially increased, almost instantaneous ability to access/share information, offering an unprecedented opportunity to visualise rippling effects of global events across space and time. Personal devices provide “big data” on people’s movement, the environment and economic trends, while access to the unprecedented flurry in scientific publications and media posts provides a measure of the response of the educated world to the crisis. Most bibliometric (co-authorship, co-citation, or bibliographic coupling) analyses ignore the time dimension, but COVID-19 has made it possible to perform a detailed temporal investigation into the pandemic. Here, we report a comprehensive network analysis based on more than 20,000 published documents on viral epidemics, authored by over 75,000 individuals from 140 nations in the past one year of the crisis. Unlike the 1918 flu pandemic, access to published data over the past two decades enabled a comparison of publishing trends between the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and those of the 2003 SARS epidemic to study changes in thematic foci and societal pressures dictating research over the course of a crisis.

scholarly journals Medication Prescribed Within 1 Year Preceding Fall-Related Injuries in Older Adults in Ontario, Canada

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 236-236
Author(s):  
Yu Ming ◽  
Aleksandra Zecevic ◽  
Richard Booth ◽  
Susan Hunter ◽  
Andrew Johnson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Fall Risk ◽  
Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical ◽  
Group Discussion ◽  
Head Injuries ◽  
Prescription Medication ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Secondary Health Care ◽  
One Year

Abstract Background: The consequences of fall-related injuries are becoming more significant due to ageing societies worldwide. This study aims to provide information on medications prescribed to older adults within one year before they experienced fall-related injury in Ontario, Canada. Methods: A population-based descriptive study of older adults (66 years and older) who experienced fall-related injury was conducted using administrative secondary health care data of Ontario. The percentages of patients prescribed each Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical 4th level medication class and fall-risk increasing drugs one year before their fall-related injuries was summarized. Results: From 2010 to 2014, 288,251 older adults (63.2% females) were admitted to Emergency Department due to fall-related injury, 39.9% were fall-related fractures, 12.6% were head injuries. One year prior to their injury, 48.46% of older adults were prescribed with statins; 35.23% were prescribed with diuretics; 26.84% were prescribed with antidepressants; 25.90% were prescribed with opioids and 16.61% were prescribed with anxiolytics. A higher percentage of females were prescribed with diuretics, antidepressants, and anxiolytics than males. 85 years and older people had higher percentage of prescription of diuretics, antidepressants and antipsychotics than other age group. Discussion: In general, older adults diagnosed with fall-related injuries were prescribed with more opioids, benzodiazepines and antidepressants than other general older adults. There were distinct patterns of prescription medication within each sex and age group (66-74 group, 75-84 group and 85 years and older group). Further association between medications and fall-related injuries need to be established using well-defined cohort studies.

O1-09-06: Herpes simplex virus, anti-herpetic medication, and dementia: Results from the three-city population-based cohort

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (7S_Part_3) ◽  
pp. P153-P153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine Helmer ◽  
Mélanie Le Goff ◽  
Catherine Féart ◽  
Isabelle Garrigue ◽  
Hervé Fleury ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Herpes Simplex Virus ◽  
Herpes Simplex ◽  
Population Based ◽  
City Population ◽  
Simplex Virus

scholarly journals New Mathematical Modeling Approach for Predicting Microbial Inactivation by High Hydrostatic Pressure

2007 ◽  
Vol 73 (8) ◽  
pp. 2468-2478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernadette Klotz ◽  
D. Leo Pyle ◽  
Bernard M. Mackey
Keyword(s):  
Microbial Inactivation ◽  
Inactivation Kinetics ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Order Kinetic ◽  
Square Root ◽  
Additional Time ◽  
Decimal Reduction Time ◽  
First Order ◽  
Primary Model

ABSTRACT A new primary model based on a thermodynamically consistent first-order kinetic approach was constructed to describe non-log-linear inactivation kinetics of pressure-treated bacteria. The model assumes a first-order process in which the specific inactivation rate changes inversely with the square root of time. The model gave reasonable fits to experimental data over six to seven orders of magnitude. It was also tested on 138 published data sets and provided good fits in about 70% of cases in which the shape of the curve followed the typical convex upward form. In the remainder of published examples, curves contained additional shoulder regions or extended tail regions. Curves with shoulders could be accommodated by including an additional time delay parameter and curves with tails shoulders could be accommodated by omitting points in the tail beyond the point at which survival levels remained more or less constant. The model parameters varied regularly with pressure, which may reflect a genuine mechanistic basis for the model. This property also allowed the calculation of (a) parameters analogous to the decimal reduction time D and z, the temperature increase needed to change the D value by a factor of 10, in thermal processing, and hence the processing conditions needed to attain a desired level of inactivation; and (b) the apparent thermodynamic volumes of activation associated with the lethal events. The hypothesis that inactivation rates changed as a function of the square root of time would be consistent with a diffusion-limited process.

scholarly journals A fractional order mathematical model for COVID-19 dynamics with quarantine, isolation, and environmental viral load

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed A. Aba Oud ◽  
Aatif Ali ◽  
Hussam Alrabaiah ◽  
Saif Ullah ◽  
Muhammad Altaf Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Threshold Parameter ◽  
Fractional Model ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Fractional Models ◽  
Disease Epidemics ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCOVID-19 or coronavirus is a newly emerged infectious disease that started in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and spread worldwide very quickly. Although the recovery rate is greater than the death rate, the COVID-19 infection is becoming very harmful for the human community and causing financial loses to their economy. No proper vaccine for this infection has been introduced in the market in order to treat the infected people. Various approaches have been implemented recently to study the dynamics of this novel infection. Mathematical models are one of the effective tools in this regard to understand the transmission patterns of COVID-19. In the present paper, we formulate a fractional epidemic model in the Caputo sense with the consideration of quarantine, isolation, and environmental impacts to examine the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak. The fractional models are quite useful for understanding better the disease epidemics as well as capture the memory and nonlocality effects. First, we construct the model in ordinary differential equations and further consider the Caputo operator to formulate its fractional derivative. We present some of the necessary mathematical analysis for the fractional model. Furthermore, the model is fitted to the reported cases in Pakistan, one of the epicenters of COVID-19 in Asia. The estimated value of the important threshold parameter of the model, known as the basic reproduction number, is evaluated theoretically and numerically. Based on the real fitted parameters, we obtained $\mathcal{R}_{0} \approx 1.50$ R 0 ≈ 1.50 . Finally, an efficient numerical scheme of Adams–Moulton type is used in order to simulate the fractional model. The impact of some of the key model parameters on the disease dynamics and its elimination are shown graphically for various values of noninteger order of the Caputo derivative. We conclude that the use of fractional epidemic model provides a better understanding and biologically more insights about the disease dynamics.

scholarly journals Incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke subtypes in Joinville, Brazil: a population-based study

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (8) ◽  
pp. 648-654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos C. Lange ◽  
Norberto L. Cabral ◽  
Carla H. C. Moro ◽  
Alexandre L. Longo ◽  
Anderson R. Gonçalves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Large Artery ◽  
Vessel Occlusion ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
One Year ◽  
Undetermined Etiology ◽  
And Control ◽  
Adjusted Incidence

Aims To measure the incidence and mortality rates of ischemic stroke (IS) subtypes in Joinville, Brazil. Methods All first-ever IS patients that occurred in Joinville from January 2005 to December 2006 were identified. The IS subtypes were classified by the TOAST criteria, and the patients were followed-up for one year after IS onset. Results The age-adjusted incidence per 100,000 inhabitants was 26 (17-39) for large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA), 17 (11-27) for cardioembolic (CE), 29 (20-41) for small vessel occlusion (SVO), 2 (0.6-7) for stroke of other determined etiology (OTH) and 30 (20-43) for stroke of undetermined etiology (UND). The 1-year mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants was 5 (2-11) for LAA, 6 (3-13) for CE, 1 (0.1-6) for SVO, 0.2 (0-0.9) for OTH and 9 (4-17) for UND. Conclusion In the population of Joinville, the incidences of IS subtypes were similar to those found in other populations. These findings highlight the importance of better detection and control of atherosclerotic risk factors.

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