scholarly journals The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variant to COVID-19 Epidemic in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Celaschi
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Adopted Model ◽  
Data Points ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe impact of SARS-CoV-2 dominant global lineages to COVID-19 epidemics is for the first time modeled by an adaptation of the deterministic SEIR Model. Such a strategy may be applied worldwide to predict forecasts of the outbreak in any infected country. The objective of this study is to forecast the outcome of the epidemic in Brazil as a first cohort study case. The basic modeling design takes under consideration two of SARS-CoV-2 dominant strains, and a time-varying reproduction number to forecast the disease transmission behavior. The study is set as a country population-based analysis. Brazilian official published data from February 25 to August 30 2020 was employed to adjust a couple of epidemiological parameters in this cohort study. The population-based sample in this study, 4.2 Million Brazilians during the study period, is the number of confirmed cases on exposed individuals. Model parameters were estimated by minimizing the mean squared quadratic errors. The main outcomes of the study follows: The percentage values of non-symptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 hosts were estimated to be respectively (54 ± 9) % and (46 ± 9) %. By the end of 2020, the number of confirmed cases in Brazil, within 95% CI, is predicted to reach 6 Million (5-7), and fatalities would account for 180.103 (160–200).103. Estimated forecast obtained preserving or releasing the NPIs during the last quarter of 2020, are included. Data points for extra three weeks were added after the model was complete, granting confidence on the outcomes. In 2020 the total number of exposures individuals is estimated to reach 13 ± 1 Million, 6.2% of the Brazilian population. Regarding the original SARS-CoV-2 form and its variant, the only model assumption is their distinct incubation rates. The variant SARS-CoV-2 form, as predicted by the SEIR adopted model, reaches a maximum of 96% of exposed individuals as previously reported for South America. By the end of 2020, a fraction in the range of 15–35 percentages of susceptible Brazilian individuals is to be depleted. Sufficient depletion of susceptibility (by NPIs or not) has to be achieved to weaken the global dynamics spread.

scholarly journals Preadmission kidney function and risk of acute kidney injury in patients hospitalized with acute pyelonephritis: A Danish population-based cohort study

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0247687
Author(s):  
Henriette Vendelbo Graversen ◽  
Mette Nørgaard ◽  
Dorothea Nitsch ◽  
Christian Fynbo Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Kidney Function ◽  
Acute Pyelonephritis ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Population Based ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Background and objectives Only few smaller studies have examined if impaired kidney function increases the risk of acute kidney injury in patients with acute pyelonephritis. Therefore, we estimated 30-day risk of acute kidney injury by preadmission kidney function in patients with acute pyelonephritis. Furthermore, we examined if impaired kidney function was a risk factor for development of acute kidney injury in pyelonephritis patients. Methods This cohort study included patients with a first-time hospitalization with pyelonephritis from 2000 to 2017. Preadmission kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <30, 30–44, 45–59, 60–89, and ≥90 ml/min/1.73 m2) and acute kidney injury within 30 days after admission were assessed using laboratory data on serum creatinine. The absolute 30-days risk of acute kidney injury was assessed treating death as a competing risk. The impact of eGFR on the odds of acute kidney injury was compared by odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals estimated using logistic regression adjusted for potential confounding factors. Results Among 8,760 patients with available data on preadmission kidney function, 25.8% had a preadmission eGFR <60. The 30-day risk of acute kidney injury was 16% among patients with preadmission eGFR ≥90 and increased to 22%, 33%, 42%, and 47% for patients with preadmission eGFR of 60–89, 45–59, 30–44, and <30 respectively. Compared with eGFR≥90, the adjusted ORs for the subgroups with eGFR 60–89, 45–59, 30–45, and <30 were 0.95, 1.32, 1.78, and 2.19 respectively. Conclusion Acute kidney injury is a common complication in patients hospitalized with acute pyelonephritis. Preadmission impaired kidney function is a strong risk factor for development of acute kidney injury in pyelonephritis patients and more attention should be raised in prevention of pyelonephritis in patients with a low kidney function.

Body mass index and risk of all-cause mortality in normotensive and hypertensive adults: The Rural Chinese Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Qionggui Zhou ◽  
Xuejiao Liu ◽  
Yang Zhao ◽  
Pei Qin ◽  
Yongcheng Ren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Normal Weight ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Hypertension Status ◽  
Moderation Effect ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Chinese Cohort ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objective: The impact of baseline hypertension status on the BMI–mortality association is still unclear. We aimed to examine the moderation effect of hypertension on the BMI–mortality association using a rural Chinese cohort. Design: In this cohort study, we investigated the incident of mortality according to different BMI categories by hypertension status. Setting: Longitudinal population-based cohort Participants: 17,262 adults ≥18 years were recruited from July to August of 2013 and July to August of 2014 from a rural area in China. Results: During a median 6-year follow-up, we recorded 1109 deaths (610 with and 499 without hypertension). In adjusted models, as compared with BMI 22-24 kg/m2, with BMI ≤18, 18-20, 20-22, 24-26, 26-28, 28-30 and >30 kg/m2, the HRs (95% CI) for mortality in normotensive participants were 1.92 (1.23-3.00), 1.44 (1.01-2.05), 1.14 (0.82-1.58), 0.96 (0.70-1.31), 0.96 (0.65-1.43), 1.32 (0.81-2.14), and 1.32 (0.74-2.35) respectively, and in hypertensive participants were 1.85 (1.08-3.17), 1.67 (1.17-2.39), 1.29 (0.95-1.75), 1.20 (0.91-1.58), 1.10 (0.83-1.46), 1.10 (0.80-1.52), and 0.61 (0.40-0.94) respectively. The risk of mortality was lower in individuals with hypertension with overweight or obesity versus normal weight, especially in older hypertensives (≥60 years old). Sensitivity analyses gave consistent results for both normotensive and hypertensive participants. Conclusions: Low BMI was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality regardless of hypertension status in rural Chinese adults, but high BMI decreased the mortality risk among individuals with hypertension, especially in older hypertensives.

scholarly journals Evolution of disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic: patterns and determinants

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Blanca Gallego
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEpidemic models are being used by governments to inform public health strategies to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. They simulate potential scenarios by manipulating model parameters that control processes of disease transmission and recovery. However, the validity of these parameters is challenged by the uncertainty of the impact of public health interventions on disease transmission, and the forecasting accuracy of these models is rarely investigated during an outbreak. We fitted a stochastic transmission model on reported cases, recoveries and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection across 101 countries. The dynamics of disease transmission was represented in terms of the daily effective reproduction number ($$R_t$$ R t ). The relationship between public health interventions and $$R_t$$ R t was explored, firstly using a hierarchical clustering algorithm on initial $$R_t$$ R t patterns, and secondly computing the time-lagged cross correlation among the daily number of policies implemented, $$R_t$$ R t , and daily incidence counts in subsequent months. The impact of updating $$R_t$$ R t every time a prediction is made on the forecasting accuracy of the model was investigated. We identified 5 groups of countries with distinct transmission patterns during the first 6 months of the pandemic. Early adoption of social distancing measures and a shorter gap between interventions were associated with a reduction on the duration of outbreaks. The lagged correlation analysis revealed that increased policy volume was associated with lower future $$R_t$$ R t (75 days lag), while a lower $$R_t$$ R t was associated with lower future policy volume (102 days lag). Lastly, the outbreak prediction accuracy of the model using dynamically updated $$R_t$$ R t produced an average AUROC of 0.72 (0.708, 0.723) compared to 0.56 (0.555, 0.568) when $$R_t$$ R t was kept constant. Monitoring the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t during an epidemic is an important complementary piece of information to reported daily counts, recoveries and deaths, since it provides an early signal of the efficacy of containment measures. Using updated $$R_t$$ R t values produces significantly better predictions of future outbreaks. Our results found variation in the effect of early public health interventions on the evolution of $$R_t$$ R t over time and across countries, which could not be explained solely by the timing and number of the adopted interventions.

scholarly journals Incidence of diabetes mellitus among people living with and without HIV in British Columbia, Canada between 2001 and 2013: a longitudinal population-based cohort study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. e048744
Author(s):  
Andreea Bratu ◽  
Taylor McLinden ◽  
Katherine Kooij ◽  
Monica Ye ◽  
Jenny Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
British Columbia ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Hiv Serostatus ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionPeople living with HIV (PLHIV) are increasingly at risk of age-related comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus (DM). While DM is associated with elevated mortality and morbidity, understanding of DM among PLHIV is limited. We assessed the incidence of DM among people living with and without HIV in British Columbia (BC), Canada, during 2001–2013.MethodsWe used longitudinal data from a population-based cohort study linking clinical data and administrative health data. We included PLHIV who were antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve at baseline, and 1:5 age-sex-matched persons without HIV. All participants had ≥5 years of historic data pre-baseline and ≥1 year(s) of follow-up. DM was identified using the BC Ministry of Health’s definitions applied to hospitalisation, physician billing and drug dispensation datasets. Incident DM was identified using a 5-year run-in period. In addition to unadjusted incidence rates (IRs), we estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) using Poisson regression and assessed annual trends in DM IRs per 1000 person years (PYs) between 2001 and 2013.ResultsA total of 129 PLHIV and 636 individuals without HIV developed DM over 17 529 PYs and 88,672 PYs, respectively. The unadjusted IRs of DM per 1000 PYs were 7.4 (95% CI 6.2 to 8.8) among PLHIV and 7.2 (95% CI 6.6 to 7.8) for individuals without HIV. After adjustment for confounding, HIV serostatus was not associated with DM incidence (adjusted IRR: 1.03, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.27). DM incidence did not increase over time among PLHIV (Kendall trend test: p=0.9369), but it increased among persons without HIV between 2001 and 2013 (p=0.0136).ConclusionsAfter adjustment, HIV serostatus was not associated with incidence of DM, between 2001 and 2013. Future studies should investigate the impact of ART on mitigating the potential risk of DM among PLHIV.

scholarly journals Absence of Association between Previous Mycoplasma pneumoniae Infection and Subsequent Myasthenia Gravis: A Nationwide Population-Based Matched Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7677
Author(s):  
Kuan Chen ◽  
James Cheng-Chung Wei ◽  
Hei-Tung Yip ◽  
Mei-Chia Chou ◽  
Renin Chang
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Myasthenia Gravis ◽  
Mycoplasma Pneumoniae ◽  
Pathogenic Bacteria ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Subsequent Development ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
The Impact

Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) is not only one of the most common pathogenic bacteria for respiratory infection but also a trigger for many autoimmune diseases. Its infection process shared many similarities with the pathogenesis of myasthenia gravis (MG) at cellular and cytokine levels. Recent case reports demonstrated patients present with MG after M. pneumoniae infection. However, no epidemiological studies ever looked into the association between the two. Our study aimed to investigate the relationship between M. pneumoniae infection and subsequent development of MG. In this population-based retrospective cohort study, the risk of MG was analyzed in patients who were newly diagnosed with M. pneumoniae infection between 2000 and 2013. A total of 2428 M. pneumoniae patients were included and matched with the non-M. pneumoniae control cohort at a 1:4 ratio by age, sex, and index date. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was applied to analyze the risk of MG development after adjusting for sex, age, and comorbidities, with hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. The incidence rates of MG in the non-M. pneumoniae and M. pneumoniae cohorts were 0.96 and 1.97 per 10,000 person-years, respectively. Another case–control study of patients with MG (n = 515) was conducted to analyze the impact of M. pneumoniae on MG occurrence as a sensitivity analysis. The analysis yielded consistent absence of a link between M. pneumoniae and MG. Although previous studies have reported that M. pneumoniae infection and MG may share associated immunologic pathways, we found no statistical significance between M. pneumoniae infection and subsequent development of MG in this study.

scholarly journals Comorbidity and risk of venous thromboembolism after hospitalization for first‐time myocardial infarction: A population‐based cohort study

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 1974-1985
Author(s):  
Morten Würtz ◽  
Erik Lerkevang Grove ◽  
Priscila Corraini ◽  
Kasper Adelborg ◽  
Jens Sundbøll ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Population Based ◽  
First Time

scholarly journals Primary Care Consultations after Hospitalisation for Pneumonia: A Large Population-based Cohort Study

2020 ◽  
pp. BJGP.2020.0890
Author(s):  
Vadsala Baskaran ◽  
Fiona Pearce ◽  
Rowan H Harwood ◽  
Tricia McKeever ◽  
Wei Shen Lim
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Practice Research ◽  
Clinical Practice Research Datalink ◽  
Respiratory Disorder ◽  
The Impact

Background: Up to 70% of patients report ongoing symptoms four weeks after hospitalisation for pneumonia, and the impact on primary care is poorly understood. Aim: To investigate the frequency of primary care consultations after hospitalisation for pneumonia, and the reasons for consultation. Design: Population-based cohort study. Setting: UK primary care database of anonymised medical records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), England. Methods: Adults with the first ICD-10 code for pneumonia (J12-J18) recorded in HES between July 2002-June 2017 were included. Primary care consultation within 30 days of discharge was identified as the recording of any medical Read code (excluding administration-related codes) in CPRD. Competing-risks regression analyses were conducted to determine the predictors of consultation and antibiotic use at consultation; death and readmission were competing events. Reasons for consultation were examined. Results: Of 56,396 adults, 55.9% (n=31,542) consulted primary care within 30 days of discharge. The rate of consultation was highest within 7 days (4.7 per 100 person-days). The strongest predictor for consultation was a higher number of primary care consultations in the year prior to index admission (adjusted sHR 8.98, 95% CI 6.42-12.55). The commonest reason for consultation was for a respiratory disorder (40.7%, n=12,840), 12% for pneumonia specifically. At consultation, 31.1% (n=9,823) received further antibiotics. Penicillins (41.6%, n=5,753) and macrolides (21.9%, n=3,029) were the commonest antibiotics prescribed. Conclusion: Following hospitalisation for pneumonia, a significant proportion of patients consulted primary care within 30 days, highlighting the morbidity experienced by patients during recovery from pneumonia.

scholarly journals End-Of-Life Discussions Reduce The Utilization of Life-Sustaining Treatments During The Last Three Months of Life in Cancer Patients : A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shang-Yih Chan ◽  
Yun-Ju Lai ◽  
Yu-Yen Hsin Chen ◽  
Shuo-Ju Chiang ◽  
Yi-Fan Tsai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation ◽  
End Of Life ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Lower Likelihood ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
To Receive

Abstract Purpose Studies to examine the impact of end-of-life (EOL) discussions on the utilization of life-sustaining treatments near death were limited and had inconsistent findings. This nationwide population-based cohort study determined the impact of EOL discussions on the utilization of life-sustaining treatments in the last three months of life in Taiwanese cancer patients. Methods This cohort study included adult cancer patients from 2012–2018, which were confirmed by pathohistological reports. Life-sustaining treatments during the last three months of life included cardiopulmonary resuscitation, intubation, and defibrillation. EOL discussions in cancer patients were confirmed by their medical records. Association of EOL discussions with utilization of life-sustaining treatments were assessed using multiple logistic regression. Results Of 381,207 patients, the mean age was 70.5 years and 19.4% of the subjects utilized life-sustaining treatments during the last three months of life. After adjusting for other covariates, those who underwent EOL discussions were less likely to receive life-sustaining treatments during the last three months of life compared to those who did not (Adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.80–0.84). Considering the type of treatments, EOL discussions correlated with a lower likelihood of receiving cardiopulmonary resuscitation (AOR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.41–0.45), endotracheal intubation (AOR = 0.87, 95%CI: 0.85–0.89), and defibrillation (AOR = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.48–0.57). Conclusion EOL discussions correlated with a lower utilization of life-sustaining treatments during the last three months of life among cancer patients. Our study supports the importance of providing these discussions to cancer patients to better align care with preferences during the EOL treatment.

scholarly journals The impact of hip fracture on mortality in Estonia: a retrospective population-based cohort study

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikk Jürisson ◽  
Mait Raag ◽  
Riina Kallikorm ◽  
Margus Lember ◽  
Anneli Uusküla
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Population Based ◽  
The Impact
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