scholarly journals Confirmed forecasts for the expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic in the S. Paulo city, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Celaschi
Keyword(s):  
Population Based ◽  
Basic Number ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Infected People ◽  
City Population ◽  
One Year ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
The City ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractAn epidemiological compartmental model reported on May, 2020 was previously selected to estimate future outcomes to the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic breakout in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil. A time-dependent incidence weight on the reproductive basic number accounted for the Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). A first series of official published data from March 1st to May 31st, 2020 was used to adjust the model parameters aiming to forecast one year of the COVID-19 evolutionary outbreak. The cohort study was set as a city population-based analysis. The population-based sample, 25,366 during the study period, was the number of confirmed cases on exposed individuals. The analysis was applied to predict the consequences of releasing the NPIs, and indicated the appearance of a second wave starting last quarter of 2020. By January 31st 2021, the number of confirmed cases was predicted to reach 0.49 Million (0.28-0.77), and fatalities would account for 22 thousand (11-32), 5 to 95% CRI. A second series of official data published from June 1st 2020 to January 31st, 2021 confirms all forecasts previously reported for the evolution of infected people and fatalities associated to this epidemic outbreak in the city of S. Paulo. By January 31st 2021, the official number of confirmed cases reached 469,657 (4 % above predicted average of accumulated cases), and fatalities accounted for 17,333 (19% above accumulated average of fatalities).

scholarly journals Second Wave Analysis and Confirmed Forecasts of the SARS-Cov-2 Epidemic Outbreak in São Paulo, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 80-87
Author(s):  
Sergio Celaschi
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Basic Number ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Infected People ◽  
City Population ◽  
One Year ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
Second Wave

Objective: A SEIR compartmental model was previously selected to estimate future outcomes to the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic breakout in Brazil. Method: Compartments for individuals vaccinated and prevalent SARS-Cov-2 variants were not included. A time-dependent incidence weight on the reproductive basic number accounted for Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI). A first series of published data from March 1st to May 8, 2020 was used to adjust all model parameters aiming to forecast one year of evolutionary outbreak. The cohort study was set as a city population-based analysis. Analysis: A population-based sample of 25,366 confirmed cases on exposed individuals was used during the first study period. The analysis was applied to predict the consequences of NPI enforcements followed by progressive releases, and indicates the appearance of a second wave starting last quarter of 2020. Findings: By March 1st 2021, the number of confirmed cases was predicted to reach 0.47Million (0.24-0.78), and fatalities would account for 21 thousand (12-33), 5 to 95% CRI. A second series of data published from May 9, 2020 to March 1st, 2021 confirms the forecasts previously reported for the evolution of infected people and fatalities. Novelty: By March 1st 2021, the number of confirmed cases reached 527,710 (12% above the predicted average of accumulated cases) and fatalities accounted for 18,769 (10% below the accumulated average of estimated fatalities). After March 1st, new peaks on reported numbers of daily new infected and new fatalities appeared as a combined result to the appearance of the prevalent SARS-CoV-2 P1 variant, and the increased number of vaccinated individuals. Doi: 10.28991/SciMedJ-2021-03-SI-10 Full Text: PDF

scholarly journals Optimized Distribution of Beijing Population Based on CA-MAS

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haoguang Liang ◽  
Zhong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Population Distribution ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Mixed Use ◽  
City Population ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
The City ◽  
Resources Planning

In recent years rapid expansion of populations, disruption of ecological environments, and power shortages to areas of high population density in undeveloped areas have appeared in major cities in China. Well-planned population distribution in a city has become one of the key development strategies of urbanization in the country. Taking Beijing as a case-study and using 2010 as the base period, this study simulates city population size and distribution during 2011–2030 using the CA-MAS model. The results showed that (1) the unplanned layout of Beijing’s population is inefficient and will result in the slow agglomeration of populations into surrounding small towns, (2) the suburbanization of the population (while employment opportunities remain centralized) increases the stress of the city commuters, (3) the current policy guiding the distribution of residential and commercial areas is effective, accelerating the formation of small town clusters, which play a role in the city’s radiation and diffusion, contributing to reducing urban commuter stress, and (4) promoting the homogenization of public resources, planning the development of a multicenter urban area, and promoting mixed use (commercial and residential) zoning are the main measures recommended to strengthen the sustainability of Beijing’s urban development and to optimize spatial layout.

scholarly journals The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variant to COVID-19 Epidemic in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Celaschi
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Adopted Model ◽  
Data Points ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe impact of SARS-CoV-2 dominant global lineages to COVID-19 epidemics is for the first time modeled by an adaptation of the deterministic SEIR Model. Such a strategy may be applied worldwide to predict forecasts of the outbreak in any infected country. The objective of this study is to forecast the outcome of the epidemic in Brazil as a first cohort study case. The basic modeling design takes under consideration two of SARS-CoV-2 dominant strains, and a time-varying reproduction number to forecast the disease transmission behavior. The study is set as a country population-based analysis. Brazilian official published data from February 25 to August 30 2020 was employed to adjust a couple of epidemiological parameters in this cohort study. The population-based sample in this study, 4.2 Million Brazilians during the study period, is the number of confirmed cases on exposed individuals. Model parameters were estimated by minimizing the mean squared quadratic errors. The main outcomes of the study follows: The percentage values of non-symptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 hosts were estimated to be respectively (54 ± 9) % and (46 ± 9) %. By the end of 2020, the number of confirmed cases in Brazil, within 95% CI, is predicted to reach 6 Million (5-7), and fatalities would account for 180.103 (160–200).103. Estimated forecast obtained preserving or releasing the NPIs during the last quarter of 2020, are included. Data points for extra three weeks were added after the model was complete, granting confidence on the outcomes. In 2020 the total number of exposures individuals is estimated to reach 13 ± 1 Million, 6.2% of the Brazilian population. Regarding the original SARS-CoV-2 form and its variant, the only model assumption is their distinct incubation rates. The variant SARS-CoV-2 form, as predicted by the SEIR adopted model, reaches a maximum of 96% of exposed individuals as previously reported for South America. By the end of 2020, a fraction in the range of 15–35 percentages of susceptible Brazilian individuals is to be depleted. Sufficient depletion of susceptibility (by NPIs or not) has to be achieved to weaken the global dynamics spread.

scholarly journals Quantifying Effects, Forecasting Releases, and Herd Immunity of the Covid-19 Epidemic in S. Paulo – Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Celaschi
Keyword(s):  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Basic Number ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Medical Facilities ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
The City ◽  
Mitigation Policies

AbstractA simple and well known epidemiological deterministic model was selected to estimate the main results for the basic dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic breakout in the city of São Paulo – Brazil. The methodology employed the SEIR Model to characterize the epidemics outbreak and future outcomes. A time-dependent incidence weight on the SEIR reproductive basic number accounts for local Mitigation Policies (MP). The insights gained from analysis of these successful interventions were used to quantify shifts and reductions on active cases, casualties, and estimatives on required medical facilities (ITU). This knowledge can be applied to other Brazilian areas. The analysis was applied to forecast the consequences of releasing the MP over specific periods of time. Herd Immunity (HI) analysis allowed estimating how far we are from reaching the HI threshold value, and the price to be paid.

scholarly journals COVID-19 scenarios for comparing the effectiveness of age-specific vaccination regimes, exemplified for the city of Aschaffenburg (Germany)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Krebs ◽  
Holger von Jouanne-Diedrich ◽  
Michael J Moeckel
Keyword(s):  
Local Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Purpose of this report: The purpose of this rapid communication is to illustrate the effectiveness of different vaccination regimes for controlling the number of severe and critical COVID-19 cases in the city of Aschaffenburg, Germany. Our results show that, despite numerous vaccinations in the past, further vaccinations are necessary to immunize the population and to keep the number of severe and critical cases low in the coming months. Considering that not all people can or want to receive vaccination, we compare different age-specific vaccination approaches. Applied Methods: We use the agent-based epidemiological simulator Covasim for discussing the impact of different vaccination strategies. We calibrate it to reproduce the historical course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Aschaffenburg, Germany; for this, we model and integrate numerous public health interventions imposed on the local population. As for some of the political actions rigorous quantification is currently not available, we fit those unknown (free) model parameters to published data on the measured epidemiological dynamics. Then we calculate the state of immunization of the population, gained through infections and vaccinations, at any time in the past, including models for time-dependent immunity decay that have been made available in Covasim. Finally, we define and compare scenar-ios of different vaccination regimes, especially with regard to vaccinating adolescents and providing booster vaccinations to the elderly. Key message: Without further vaccinations, we expect a strong increase in severe and critical cases. In order to restrict their growth our simulations suggest that in all considered cases vaccinations of unvaccinated people is more effective than booster vaccinations for already fully vaccinated people. This applies even to vaccinations of young people who are not themselves at high risk of developing severe or critical illness. We attribute this observation to the fact that immunization of adolescents indirectly protects vulnerable age groups by preventing the spread of the virus more ef-fectively than further immunizing other age groups. This indicates that with the pandemic ongoing, strategies focussed on minimizing individual health risks by vaccinations may no longer coincide with those needed to minimize the num-ber of severe and critical cases.

L’absence chez Michel Butor. L’Emploi du temps et Degrés

2012 ◽  
pp. 66-80
Author(s):  
Michał Mrozowicki
Keyword(s):  
Human Memory ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Narrative Discourse ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Michel Butor ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Narrative Mode ◽  
The City

Michel Butor, born in 1926, one of the leaders of the French New Novel movement, has written only four novels between 1954 and 1960. The most famous of them is La Modification (Second thoughts), published in 1957. The author of the paper analyzes two other Butor’s novels: L’Emploi du temps (Passing time) – 1956, and Degrés (Degrees) – 1960. The theme of absence is crucial in both of them. In the former, the novel, presented as the diary of Jacques Revel, a young Frenchman spending a year in Bleston (a fictitious English city vaguely similar to Manchester), describes the narrator’s struggle to survive in a double – spatial and temporal – labyrinth. The first of them, formed by Bleston’s streets, squares and parks, is symbolized by the City plan. During his one year sojourn in the city, using its plan, Revel learns patiently how to move in its different districts, and in its strange labyrinth – strange because devoid any centre – that at the end stops annoying him. The other, the temporal one, symbolized by the diary itself, the labyrinth of the human memory, discovered by the narrator rather lately, somewhere in the middle of the year passed in Bleston, becomes, by contrast, more and more dense and complex, which is reflected by an increasinly complex narration used to describe the past. However, at the moment Revel is leaving the city, he is still unable to recall and to describe the events of the 29th of February 1952. This gap, this absence, symbolizes his defeat as the narrator, and, in the same time, the human memory’s limits. In Degrees temporal and spatial structures are also very important. This time round, however, the problems of the narration itself, become predominant. Considered from this point of view, the novel announces Gerard Genette’s work Narrative Discourse and his theoretical discussion of two narratological categories: narrative voice and narrative mode. Having transgressed his narrative competences, Pierre Vernier, the narrator of the first and the second parts of the novel, who, taking as a starting point, a complete account of one hour at school, tries to describe the whole world and various aspects of the human civilization for the benefit of his nephew, Pierre Eller, must fail and disappear, as the narrator, from the third part, which is narrated by another narrator, less audacious and more credible.

Perfil da Linguagem em Pacientes com Acidente Vascular Encefálico Atendidos pelo Serviço Assistencial Domiciliar Multidisciplinar em Porto Velho – Rondônia

REVISTA FIMCA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-42
Author(s):  
Amanda Leite Silva Cabral ◽  
Flávia Peres Lima ◽  
Jéssica Iara Costa Bessa Paraguassú
Keyword(s):  
Communication Skills ◽  
Oral Language ◽  
Care Service ◽  
Oral Communication ◽  
Etiologic Factor ◽  
Test Protocol ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
One Year ◽  
The City ◽  
Porto Velho

Introdução: A afasia é uma das sequelas mais importantes que ocorrem após lesão cerebral de acidente vascular encefálico (AVE). Objetivos: Identificar o perfil da linguagem oral de pacientes com AVE, atendidos pelo Serviço Assistencial Multidisciplinar Domiciliar (SAMD) na cidade de Porto Velho – RO. Materiais e Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo transversal e quantitativo, realizado na residência dos pacientes que estavam sendo atendidos pelo SAMD. Onde foi utilizado o protocolo de Teste de Reabilitação das Afasias composto inicialmente de um questionário que foi aplicados com os familiares dos pacientes para coletar dados quanto ao AVE e os Testes de Comunicação Oral para avaliar dos pacientes. Resultados: Foram avaliados 11 sujeitos com AVE e oito sujeitos apresentaram afasia emissiva do tipo Broca (100%) com presença de agramatismo e anomia (87,5%), e déficit na organização da comunicação e na memória (100%). Referente à etiologia do AVE, verificou-se que 62,5% dos sujeitos apresentaram etiologia decorrente de hipertensão, com tempo de sequelas com tempo entre um ano menos e a três anos (37,5%). Todos os sujeitos (100%) eram muito falantes antes do AVE, porem 50% continuaram muito falantes após o AVE e os outros 50% se tornaram pouco falantes. Conclusão: Os resultados evidenciam que a maioria dos sujeitos apresentaram afasia emissiva do tipo Broca, em decorrência de Acidente Vascular Encefálico Isquêmico tendo como fator etiológico a hipertensão. Desencadeando alterações de linguagem como anomia e agramatismo, afetando ainda suas habilidades de comunicação como a memória e a organização da linguagem. Introduction: Aphasia is one of the most important sequels that occur after brain injury from stroke. Objectives: To identify the oral language profile of patients with stroke, assisted by the Multidisciplinary Home Care Service (SAMD) in the city of Porto Velho - RO. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional and quantitative study carried out at the residence of the patients who were being treated by the SAMD. Where the Aphasia Rehabilitation Test protocol was used, composed initially of a questionnaire that was applied with the relatives of the patients to collect data regarding the AVE and the Oral Communication Tests to evaluate the patients. Results: Eleven subjects with EVA were evaluated, and eight subjects presented Embryonic Emphasis of Broca type (100%) with presence of agramatism and anomia (87.5%), and deficits in the organization of communication and memory (100%). Regarding the etiology of the AVE, 62.5% of the subjects presented etiology due to hypertension, with sequelae time between one year less and three years (37.5%). All subjects (100%) were very talented before the AVE, but 50% remained very talented after the AVE and the other 50% became less talkative. Conclusion: The results show that most of the subjects presented Embryonic Emphasis of the Broca type, due to Ischemic Stroke, having as etiologic factor hypertension. Unleashing language changes such as anomie and agramatism, still affecting his communication skills as memory and the organization of language.

MALIGNANT MELANOMA. EPIDEMIOLOGY, ANALYTICAL INDICATORS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ONCOLOGICAL SERVICES (POPULATION-BASED STUDY)

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-233
Author(s):  
Vakhtang Merabishvili
Keyword(s):  
Malignant Melanoma ◽  
Malignant Tumors ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Detailed Structure ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
One Year ◽  
Melanoma Epidemiology

Malignant melanoma of the skin (MMS) is less than 2% (1.74%) among all malignant tumors in Russia but this is more than 10,000 (10236-2015) of new cases. It is important to monitor the trend in dynamics of morbidity and mortality from this cause. From 1995 to 2015 a number of MMS primary cases was more than doubled in absolute numbers and “crude” rates. A slightly smaller increase is indicated by standardized indicators - 62.5% for men and 70.2% for women. Annually in Russia 3670 people die from MMS (2015), which is 1.2% of all cancer deaths. In recent years the previously revealed regularities have been largely preserved: lower rates of specific gravity detected in the early stages among people in the elderly and senile and in a smaller proportion in this group who received special treatment. At the same time a change in the detailed structure of the incidence of women has been revealed where currently the leading localization of MMS was not the lower extremities but the back. The index accuracy improved however the official statistics of the distribution of patients by stages of a disease was significantly distorted (weight of the early stages was increased from the real values). The index of one-year lethality and survival was significantly improved.

scholarly journals Impact of Coronavirus Outbreaks on Science and Society: Insights from Temporal Bibliometry of SARS and COVID-19

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 626
Author(s):  
Ramya Gupta ◽  
Abhishek Prasad ◽  
Suresh Babu ◽  
Gitanjali Yadav
Keyword(s):  
Published Data ◽  
Science And Society ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Scientific Publications ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Trends ◽  
Global Events ◽  
One Year ◽  
Personal Devices ◽  
Share Information

A global event such as the COVID-19 crisis presents new, often unexpected responses that are fascinating to investigate from both scientific and social standpoints. Despite several documented similarities, the coronavirus pandemic is clearly distinct from the 1918 flu pandemic in terms of our exponentially increased, almost instantaneous ability to access/share information, offering an unprecedented opportunity to visualise rippling effects of global events across space and time. Personal devices provide “big data” on people’s movement, the environment and economic trends, while access to the unprecedented flurry in scientific publications and media posts provides a measure of the response of the educated world to the crisis. Most bibliometric (co-authorship, co-citation, or bibliographic coupling) analyses ignore the time dimension, but COVID-19 has made it possible to perform a detailed temporal investigation into the pandemic. Here, we report a comprehensive network analysis based on more than 20,000 published documents on viral epidemics, authored by over 75,000 individuals from 140 nations in the past one year of the crisis. Unlike the 1918 flu pandemic, access to published data over the past two decades enabled a comparison of publishing trends between the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and those of the 2003 SARS epidemic to study changes in thematic foci and societal pressures dictating research over the course of a crisis.

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