scholarly journals P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Qayyum ◽  
Faiz Bilquees
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Power ◽  
Star Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
The Future ◽  
Short Run

The P-star inflation model is based on the long-term quantity theory of money and puts together the long-term determinants of the price level and the short-run changes in current inflation. The P-star model-based indicator has replaced the previous monetary policy procedures in a number of countries because it offers by far more information and predictive power than monitoring movements in money supply and the rate of monetary growth. In this paper we used the P-star model to calculate the leading indicator of inflation, and also to test the forecasting performance of the P-star model-based leading indicator of inflation. The results of the study show that compared to the simple autoregressive model and the M2 growth augmented model, the P-star model can be used to obtain the leading indicator of inflation in Pakistan because it has additional information about the future rate of inflation. Therefore, this paper provides a useful tool to the policy-makers to assess the future movement of inflation in Pakistan..

scholarly journals MENEJMEN RISIKO DALAM PERFEKTIF ISLAM

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Supriyo Supriyo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Production System ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Islamic Perspective ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Future ◽  
Short Run ◽  
A Company

Human life with all its activities in order to meet the needs of life always will always faced the possibility of risk either directly or indirectly, can occur in the short term or long term. A possibility of the occurrence or risk had certainly will affect the activity to be done And adversely affect the economy of a family and even a company, if the risks that occur have a vital impact on the family or an organization. Many failures within a company's organization are due to unforeseen risks occurring as for example the company never thinks that a newly established company is still in the short run abruptly because a workforce lacking control in the production system creates a great fire and spends all and has a bad impact For the economy of a family and even a company, if the risks that occur have a vital impact on the family or an organization. Many failures within a company's organization are due to unforeseen risks occurring as for example the company never thinks that a newly established company is still in the short run abruptly because a workforce lacking control in the production system creates a terrible fire and consumes all the company's assets Newly established. Everyone or anyone else would not want the incident to happen and befall themselves and his business in the future. Keywords: Islamic perspective, Risk management

scholarly journals Archaeology, climate, and global change in the Age of Humans

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (15) ◽  
pp. 8250-8253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torben C. Rick ◽  
Daniel H. Sandweiss
Keyword(s):  
Interdisciplinary Research ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Cultural Systems ◽  
Human Ecodynamics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Shed Light

We live in an age characterized by increasing environmental, social, economic, and political uncertainty. Human societies face significant challenges, ranging from climate change to food security, biodiversity declines and extinction, and political instability. In response, scientists, policy makers, and the general public are seeking new interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approaches to evaluate and identify meaningful solutions to these global challenges. Underrecognized among these challenges is the disappearing record of past environmental change, which can be key to surviving the future. Historical sciences such as archaeology access the past to provide long-term perspectives on past human ecodynamics: the interaction between human social and cultural systems and climate and environment. Such studies shed light on how we arrived at the present day and help us search for sustainable trajectories toward the future. Here, we highlight contributions by archaeology—the study of the human past—to interdisciplinary research programs designed to evaluate current social and environmental challenges and contribute to solutions for the future. The past is a multimillennial experiment in human ecodynamics, and, together with our transdisciplinary colleagues, archaeology is well positioned to uncover the lessons of that experiment.

scholarly journals An evaluation of permanent crops: Evidence from the “Plant the Future” project, Georgia

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 212-222
Author(s):  
Lasha Zivzivadze ◽  
Tengiz Taktakishvili ◽  
Ekaterine Zviadadze ◽  
Giorgi Machavariani
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
High Demand ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Project

Abstract Promoting investments in permanent crops is often considered by the government as a powerful measure to support long-term growth in agriculture. The same attitude is prevalent among agricultural policy makers in Georgia and hence, country’s government and the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture of Georgia initiate and coordinate projects facilitating new investments in permanent crops. The article deals with an evaluation of an impact of “Plant the Future” project in Georgia that provides funds for the potential beneficiaries for planting permanent crops. The structure and scope of the project are discussed in the article, and the relevant data regarding the area planted, financial impact, and beneficiaries for the period from 2015 to 2019 are analysed and the impact projection is made for the period of 2020–2043. Research showed that the target indicators of the project were fully achieved. In addition, there were a high demand from farmers to participate in this project and as a result, the budget spent in 2017–2019 exceeded the planned budget. The project appears to be beneficial in terms of net present values that are positive for all discussed discount rates, meaning that the benefits of the project are greater than costs. The return on investment of the project is around 10%, which is greater than the basic discount rate (8%). Social impact also seems to be high with 1,350 beneficiaries. According to the projection, from 2015 to 2024, around 3,000 beneficiaries will benefit from this project. In the methodology, five evaluation criteria are used, namely, relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability. Based on the evaluation, specific recommendations are given.

Article 140 Between Baghdad and KRG: The Future of Kirkuk Status in Post 16 October

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 510-524
Author(s):  
Hawre Hasan Hama
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Change ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The Other ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Will

The Iraqi state and the Kurds have always been at the odds over the territory around Kirkuk, particularly following the discovery of oil in the province in 1927. Both sides have claimed ownership of the province since that time and have sought to gain advantage over the other through various means. The region was subjected to a forced demographic change under the Arabisation policy during the reign of Ba’ath Party between 1968 and 2003. Following the overthrow of Saddam’s regime in 2003, the status of Kirkuk was to be constitutionally and peacefully resolved according to Article 58 of the 2004 interim constitution and then Article 140 of the 2005 permanent constitutions, which called for normalisation, a census, and a referendum in Kirkuk and other disputed areas to determine the will of their residents. Practically, however, various Iraqi governments and the two dominant Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, were able to politicise implementation of Article 140. Although each blame the other, all share responsibility for the lack of implementation. This research investigates that experience and argues that the joint administration is the optimal scenario in the short run and independent region within the Iraqi state would be the best-case scenario in the long term.

scholarly journals Use of Markov Processes in Predicting Dairy Farm Size Distribution Changes

1979 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-72
Author(s):  
John W. Wysong ◽  
Mahmood Y. Seyala
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Farm ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Farm Production ◽  
The Future ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Average Size

During the past several decades, a number of research publications have used Markov chain processes to predict changes in number of farm firms, the average size of farms and labor resource productivity in farm production (Conneman, Harris and Wilson, Judge and Swanson, Kottke, Seyala, Willett and Saupe, Wysong and Seyala). The Markov method assumes that the pattern of change exhibited in the past will continue into the future. This method provides information on historical changes by frequency distribution categories as well as for the whole cohort, and allows for projection of these changes into the future. Previous studies have used mainly short-run periods of up to 5 years as the primary data base. This study has considered the use of longer-run base periods of 10 to 20 years combined with periodic updating of sample data in projecting long-term trends in numbers and sizes of dairy farms and revising such projections through time.

scholarly journals Credibility of the Philippine Central Bank: Evidenced by the Interest Rate Pass-Through

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-56
Author(s):  
Chu V. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study investigates the Philippine interest rate pass-through over the December 2001 through January 2016 period. The empirical findings suggest that the Philippine Central Bank has not been very effective in formulating and implementing its countercyclical monetary policy. Specifically, the empirical results reveal very low short-run and long- run interest rate pass-through. The Bounds test results indicate no long-term relationship between countercyclical monetary policy and market rates. Notwithstanding the banking system's remarkable performance in the recent years, amid lingering uncertainties in global financial markets, the Philippine Central Bank lacked the credibility in conducting its countercyclical monetary policy. This empirical finding may not be desirable but it forewarns the monetary policy makers of challenges in formulating and implementing their monetary policy.

The Innovation of Tourism Marketing Model on E-Commerce Environment

2014 ◽  
Vol 926-930 ◽  
pp. 4041-4044
Author(s):  
Qiao Ling Li
Keyword(s):  
Future Development ◽  
Marketing Mix ◽  
Travel Agency ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Profit Margins ◽  
Tourism Marketing ◽  
Marketing Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Future

The future development of tourism marketing should focus on marketing model for the Chinese market through the use of reasonable technical, find a more accurate, more effective way of marketing to product higher profit margins, but also provide more personalized of the product for consumers, and ultimately achieve long-term growth of tourism economy.This paper discuss the innovation of e-commerce tourism in following four aspects: the innovation of marketing model based on travel agency characteristics, the application of marketing method based on media characteristics, The evaluation innovation of travel agency based on marketing mix model and the innovation of marketing model of travel agency.

An integrated product policy decision framework

2014 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-74
Author(s):  
Teodora Obradovikj Grncarovska ◽  
Vladimir Dukovski ◽  
Manu Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Policy Decision ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Product Policy ◽  
Numerical Example ◽  
Republic Of Macedonia ◽  
Integrated Product Policy ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Republic

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to formulate an integrated product policy (IPP) framework for the Republic of Macedonia, taking into account unique circumstances faced by the country, particularly the mandatory transposition of European Union (EU) environmental legislation, limited country-specific data availability and the low level of environmental awareness. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed IPP indicators at EU level and the available indicators in Macedonian conditions were used in order to create a composite IPP index as a method of measurement of the level of IPP implementation in the country. Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are used as a policy decision approach for IPP. The purpose is to evaluate what decisions (taken now and in the future) would lead to the best possible level of IPP implementation. The approach applicability for long-term policy planning is demonstrated using a simple numerical example. Findings – A stylized numerical example utilizing the composite IPP index and the MDP approach indicate that policy makers should focus not only on transposing the mandatory EU legislation related to IPP, but simultaneously work to raise public awareness of IPP and environmental issues, since this opens the door for more beneficial policy alternatives in the future. Considering the long-term consequences of actions taken in the present time should be an essential part of policy design, given the pervasive and long-term nature of the effects of IPP policy. It is also very important to revisit the assumptions at regular intervals and incorporate into this framework the new learning and data obtained with time. Originality/value – This IPP framework and quantitative policy decision approach, in spite of its limitations, is a valuable and informative guide for IPP policy makers in the Republic of Macedonia. By incorporating a long-term view, explicit measurement of progress towards IPP implementation and the consideration of possible future consequences of policy decisions made in the present, it should be possible to significantly increase the likelihood of successful IPP implementation and improve environmental outcomes than those obtained using more conventional approaches.

Hill farming - An opinion on the future

2011 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
G.W. Sheath
Keyword(s):  
Livestock Farming ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Future ◽  
Hill Farming

This paper is not a formal review of hill farming literature. Rather, it is my view on the critical challenges and changes that we need to deal with if mixed livestock farming on hill lands is to be successful over the next 20 years. It is my hope that industry leaders, policy makers and agribusiness managers will give consideration to these views. Some people say that it is not smart to look into the rear-vision mirror, but I do not agree. Having a better understanding of the consequences of past events can help guide future decisions and changes.

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