scholarly journals MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON THE KALDOR'S MAGIC SQUARE VARIABLES IN SAUDI ARABIA USING THE STATISTICAL TECHNIQUE OF AUTO-REGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL (ARDL) FOR THE PERIOD 1991–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 335-357
Author(s):  
IBRAHEEM MOHAMMED ◽  
◽  
SUNDUS BAHJAT ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Magic Square ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Measurement And Analysis ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Does Inflation have Effect on Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-52
Author(s):  
Raima Nazar ◽  
Aisha Ambreen ◽  
Sumbal Sabtain
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Model Technique

Pakistan is one of the developing countries instead of possessing large amount of natural resources like mines, reserves of coal, adequate amount of minerals and oil, But, Pakistan is still deprived of basic necessities of life and suffering from extreme inflation in the country. Therefore, this study is an attempt to synopsis the impact of inflation on GDP of Pakistan. This study mainly focus on the inflation rate from the period 1980 to 2016, time series annual data has been employed in the study. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model technique is applied in the study in order to estimate and analyze the data. The study concludes that inflation indicates negative impact on the GDP of Pakistan and it can only be minimized if all resources of the country are properly allocated and fully utilized.

scholarly journals Global Climate Change and Its Impact on Agriculture Sector in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 109-116
Author(s):  
Abdul Ghafoor Awan ◽  
Ghulam Yaseen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact

Impact of global climate change on the agriculture sector of Pakistan is estimated in Pakistan. Agriculture is considered as the backbone of Pakistan economy because more 60% population is directly involved with this profession.  Due to rapid industrialization the temperature level is increasing, which is harmful for agriculture crops and also for people. The objective of this research paper is to explore the impact of the global warming at agriculture sector of Pakistan and to measure climate impact on the agriculture sector in future.  Times series dataset from 1974 to 2013 is used to analyze the impact. Agriculture value added annual growth rate is used as dependent variable. Carbon oxide emission, agriculture methane emission, agriculture nitrous oxide emission, greenhouse gas emission and population density are used as explanatory variables. Auto regressive distributed lag model is used as statistical technique to analyze the dataset. The result shows that the variables have significant impact on the agriculture sector of Pakistan. Auto regressive distributed lag model presents the existence of the short run and long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. In a policy recommendation government try to reduce the warming through control on industrialization.  

scholarly journals Assessment of public expenditure on education and the impact of revenues: the case of Moldova

2019 ◽  
pp. 61-73
Author(s):  
Ana Machidon
Keyword(s):  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

Investment in human capital is a key strategic concept for the economy and for future development of a country. Therefore, public expenditure on education determines a major point in countries like Moldova, where the education is financed from public funds predominantly. Theories show that the link between expenditures and revenues is inevitable in most of the cases. This study attempts to approach two angles of spending in education: the first is to study and analyse public expenditures in education and in what budget proportions they are spent, and the second is to find out whether there exists a relationship between expenditures in education and government revenues; if yes, to what extent the revenues would have an impact on the expenditures in education. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used in order to find the impact of revenues on expenditures in education. The model was tested for stability, heteroskedasticity, correlation, and normality. The results of the study show that the expenditures on education in the Republic of Moldova lack stability in relation to the economy and that the significant impact from government revenues determines the expenditures in the short and long run. The research is a contribution to the enhancement of public expenditure policy in education taking into consideration the limits imposed from the revenues side, and it may guide governments for better decision-making policies.

scholarly journals The impact of education tax and investment in human capital on economic growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-86
Author(s):  
Abubakar Aminu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigated the impact of education tax and investment in human capital on economic growth in Nigeria utilizing the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of cointegration covering the period of 25 years from 1995 to 2019. The findings reveal that education tax and investment in human capital have positive and significant effect on the growth of the Nigerian economy over the sampled period. The paper recommends that in order to boost the economy, Nigeria would need to, among other policy frameworks, provide a suitable environment for ensuring macro-economic stability through effective utilization of income from education tax that will encourage increased investment in human capital in the public sector. In addition to income from education tax, for effective and speedy economic growth and development in Nigeria, the government, beneficiaries (students/parents), employers of labor and other stakeholders in the society should share the responsibility for financing primary, secondary and tertiary education, so as to provide a solid foundation for human capital development. However, as revealed in this paper, the contribution of education tax and investment in human capital is most likely to be realized over a long-run period than in the short term. Keywords: Education Tax; Investment; Human capital; Economic growth

scholarly journals PENDUGAAN PARAMETER MODEl DISTRIBUTED LAG POLA POLINOMIAL MENGGUNAKAN METODE ALMON

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 761-772
Author(s):  
Fitria Virgantari ◽  
Wilda Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Operating Cost ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Forecast Time ◽  
The Impact

The distributed lag model is a regression  model that describes the relationship between the dependent variable of a given period and the independent variables of a certain or previous periods. The model can be used to determine the impact of the independent variable to dependent variables over time and forecast time series data for the next periods. There are two forms of distributed lag model that have been widely proposed in the estimation of distributed lag regression model. The first form  is proposed by Koyck and the second form by Almon. This paper aims to apply the Almon model to examine the effect of  the ratio of BOPO (Operating Cost and Operating Income) to the ROA (Return on Asset) of a government bank based on quarterly data, to estimate its parameters, to examine the feasibility of the model, and to predict the next quarter.  Results shows that distributed lag model is  = 10.110 - 0.078  + 0.015  + 0.026  – 0.045  with Yt is ROA, and Xt is the ratio BOPO  on the 1st quarter until the previous 3 quarters. The model is quite good according to the determination coefficient that is 0.75, no autocorrelation in the model, t test and F test are also significant. Based on the model, the value of ROA ratio next quarter predicted 4.63%. The decrease in profitability ROA ratio is due to an increase in interest expense while interest income can not compensate

scholarly journals Price Levels and Poverty Nexus: A Case Study of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aleem Arshad ◽  
Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh ◽  
Muhammad Hanif Akhtar ◽  
Muhammad Imran Mushtaq
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Price Levels ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Relationship

The study has examined the relationship between price levels and poverty over the period of 1982-2015 in Pakistan by employing Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). It is the pioneer empirical study on the topic in Pakistan. The study has revealed mixed findings between the price levels and poverty both at aggregated and disaggregated levels. The study has also suggested policies to reduce poverty according to the various price levels investigated in the assorted models.

scholarly journals Economic and Social Poverty Determinants in Sudan – Standard Analytical Study for the period (1980- 2019) by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL): المحددات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية للفقر في السودان– دراسة تحليلية قياسية للمدة (1980- 2019) باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL)

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (15) ◽  
pp. 83-65
Author(s):  
Hassan Ali Osman Fatur, Fadul Algheli Elsued Musa, Ibrahim Y Hassan Ali Osman Fatur, Fadul Algheli Elsued Musa, Ibrahim Y
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Study ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Relationship

The study aimed to measuring economic and social poverty determinants in Sudan, to achieve this goal a standard model for the relationship between the variables of the study was formulated and constructed during the period 1980 – 2019. The study problem lies in the main question: why poverty is increasing in Sudan although, many programs and tools for reducing poverty have been made by the State? The study assumed some hypotheses, the most important one is existence of inverse relationship having a positive impact statistically between unemployment and poverty in Sudan. The study has concluded that a positive relationship exists between unemployment and poverty, and a negative relationship exists between economic growth and poverty in Sudan. The study concluded of that there is an impact of the independent variables on poverty by a rate of 91%. The Researchers has recommended the necessity of a deflationary monetary policy to control inflation in order to reduce poverty rate.

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