2018 Presidential Elections and fertility variations across regions in Brazil
In this work, we analyzed the spatial distribution of fertility levels in 558 microregions of Brazil and correlated it with vote outcomes from the last presidential election of 2018, controlling for important confounding variables. Applying spatial regression models, to the contrary of expected, we see that votes in Bolsonaro did not associate positively with fertility levels. In fact, in regions where its political adversary won, the Brazilian Labour Party (PT), the fertility levels are on average higher than the ones where Bolsonaro had electoral success. However, we would expect that these results will be different, due to the fact that Bolsonaro represents conservatism and traditional family values, which in turn resumes in desires for more children. In line with McDonald’s gender equity theory, we argue that votes in Bolsonaro may actually indicate other facets of reproduction, like an electorate with defending lesser gender equity in family institutions and that also configures in smaller TFR as consequence.