scholarly journals A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Benjamin Miller ◽  
Adam Sanjurjo
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Fundamental Limitations ◽  
Hot Hand ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Original Domain ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Robust Evidence ◽  
Cognitive Illusion ◽  
Basketball Shooting

The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy to correct for several fundamental limitations in the canonical study and replications, conduct an improved field experiment to test for the hot hand in its original domain (basketball shooting), and gather all extant controlled shooting data. We find strong evidence of hot hand shooting in every dataset, including on the individual level. Also, in a novel study of beliefs, we find that expert observers can predict (out-of-sample) which shooters are hotter.

scholarly journals Proactive machine-learning-based approaches to vaccine hesitancy for a potential SARS-Cov-2 vaccine

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Oreskovic ◽  
M Kujundzic TIljak
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Her Family ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Tailored Communication ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Background Polls in the US and France found a concerning share of respondents (50% and 26%, respectively) stating that they are not committed to receiving or simply saying they would not accept vaccination against SARS-CoV-2[1][2]. In this context, it is worth revisiting machine-learning approaches to predicting vaccine hesitancy - such as the one developed for MMR vaccination at the individual level by Bell et al.[4] amid Europe's recent measles epidemic - as a first step of a proactive policy. Proposed Methods and Expectations In the MMR case, using 44K child-healthcare records including vaccination data, a LASSO logistic regression based on a low number of attributes of the child and his or her family and community produced risk scores, making them readily interpretable by healthcare professionals. Since children are regularly the target population for immunization efforts, recent pediatric and school-age records, in concert with other social and medical features, could provide suitable input for algorithms estimating the probability of refusal of a SARS-Cov-2 vaccine for other members of a household. This is contingent upon data on acceptance and refusal being collected and paired with these inputs in areas where the vaccine will first be deployed (if developed), which gives another argument for such timely and organized data collection. Speculating about the future performance of a new model trained on truly “out of sample” data specific to a novel problem should be avoided. Benchmarks for success in terms of measures such as precision and recall, however, have to be set in light of the gravity of the issue and other available methods. Finally, any model trained with the aim of predicting vaccine hesitancy for a SARS-Cov-2 vaccine should be coupled with tailored communication policies tested as part of the first vaccination efforts. Cornwall, Science Mag, Jun 30, 2020Peretti-Watel et al., The Lancet, May 20, 2020Bell et al., IEEE ICHI, 2019 Key messages Data on acceptance and refusal for the first (potential) SARS-Cov-2 vaccination campaigns should be collected and matched with health records to enable models predicting vaccine hesitancy. The output of machine learning models predicting vaccine hesitancy should be paired with tested policies respectfully communicating reliable information on vaccination.

scholarly journals Latent disconnectome prediction of long-term cognitive symptoms in stroke

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lia Talozzi ◽  
Stephanie Forkel ◽  
Valentina Pacella ◽  
Victor Nozais ◽  
Maurizio Corbetta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Web Application ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Treatment Programs ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Neuroimaging Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Out Of Sample Prediction

Abstract Stroke significantly impacts quality of life. However, the long-term cognitive evolution in stroke is poorly predictable at the individual level. There is an urgent need for a better prediction of long-term symptoms based on acute clinical neuroimaging data. Previous works have demonstrated a strong relationship between the location of white matter disconnections and clinical symptoms. However, rendering the entire space of possible disconnections-deficit associations optimally surveyable will allow for a systematic association between brain disconnections and cognitive-behavioural measures at the individual level. Here we present the most comprehensive framework, a composite morphospace to predict neuropsychological scores one year after stroke. Linking the latent disconnectome morphospace to neuropsychological outcomes yields biological insights available as the first comprehensive atlas of disconnectome-deficit relations across 86 neuropsychological scores. Out-of-sample prediction derived from this atlas achieved average accuracy over 80%, which is higher than any other framework. Our novel predictive framework is available as an interactive web application, the disconnectome symptoms discoverer (http://disconnectomestudio.bcblab.com), to provide the foundations for a new and practical approach to modelling cognition in stroke. Our atlas and web application will reduce the burden of cognitive deficits on patients, their families, and wider society while also helping to tailor personalized treatment programs and discover new targets for treatments. We expect the range of assessments and the predictive power of our framework to increase even further through future crowdsourcing.

scholarly journals The Human Empowerment Sequence and the Development of Libertarian Values: A Theoretical and Empirical Adjustment to the Human Empowerment Sequence

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 771-789
Author(s):  
Kris Dunn ◽  
Evelyn Griffiths ◽  
Sarah Lamb ◽  
Rebecca Shortt ◽  
Eleanor Theochari
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Current Theory ◽  
Causal Chain ◽  
World Values Survey ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The World ◽  
Nuanced Understanding ◽  
The Individual

Building on the work of Inglehart and colleagues, Welzel sets out a step-by-step theory explaining how democracies arise from processes of modernization. The intermediary stages in the causal chain he sets out explain the connection between action resources and emancipatory values. In short, Welzel provides strong evidence that people must first have the material, intellectual, and connective resources to exercise certain freedoms before they develop values that will motivate them to seek out those freedoms. Although we are convinced by much of Welzel’s argument, we also note a substantial overlap between these intermediary stages of Welzel’s theory and the individual-level authoritarianism literature. Integrating current theory on authoritarianism into Welzel’s thesis at the point of overlap provides for a distinct set of hypotheses and a more nuanced understanding of how individual differences work in Welzel’s theory. Analyses of data from Wave 5 of the World Values Survey and Vanhanen provide some initial evidence in support of our amended view of the intermediary stages of Welzel’s modernization thesis.

Differential Effects of Competence and Morality on Self-Esteem at the Individual and the Collective Level

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 183-198
Author(s):  
Wiktor Soral ◽  
Mirosław Kofta
Keyword(s):  
Self Esteem ◽  
Differential Effects ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. The importance of various trait dimensions explaining positive global self-esteem has been the subject of numerous studies. While some have provided support for the importance of agency, others have highlighted the importance of communion. This discrepancy can be explained, if one takes into account that people define and value their self both in individual and in collective terms. Two studies ( N = 367 and N = 263) examined the extent to which competence (an aspect of agency), morality, and sociability (the aspects of communion) promote high self-esteem at the individual and the collective level. In both studies, competence was the strongest predictor of self-esteem at the individual level, whereas morality was the strongest predictor of self-esteem at the collective level.

Empirical analysis of trait models at the individual level

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
James W. Grice
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual

Metonymy in Dance: Ballet Bunheads Take a Cognitive Turn

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-34
Author(s):  
Edward C. Warburton
Keyword(s):  
Identity Formation ◽  
Cognitive Science ◽  
Artistic Development ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Figures Of Speech ◽  
Self Image ◽  
Level I ◽  
Dance Educators ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Metaphor And Metonymy

This essay considers metonymy in dance from the perspective of cognitive science. My goal is to unpack the roles of metaphor and metonymy in dance thought and action: how do they arise, how are they understood, how are they to be explained, and in what ways do they determine a person's doing of dance? The premise of this essay is that language matters at the cultural level and can be determinative at the individual level. I contend that some figures of speech, especially metonymic labels like ‘bunhead’, can not only discourage but dehumanize young dancers, treating them not as subjects who dance but as objects to be danced. The use of metonymy to sort young dancers may undermine the development of healthy self-image, impede strong identity formation, and retard creative-artistic development. The paper concludes with a discussion of the influence of metonymy in dance and implications for dance educators.

Exploring the effect of weight loss on food reward at the individual level

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pauline Oustric ◽  
Kristine Beaulieu ◽  
Nuno Casanova ◽  
Francois Husson ◽  
Catherine Gibbons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weight Loss ◽  
Food Reward ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual

Personality change and environmental concerns

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher James Hopwood ◽  
Ted Schwaba ◽  
Wiebke Bleidorn
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Personality Change ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Big Five Personality ◽  
German Population ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Sustainable Behavior ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Over Time

Personal concerns about climate change and the environment are a powerful motivator of sustainable behavior. People’s level of concern varies as a function of a variety of social and individual factors. Using data from 58,748 participants from a nationally representative German sample, we tested preregistered hypotheses about factors that impact concerns about the environment over time. We found that environmental concerns increased modestly from 2009-2017 in the German population. However, individuals in middle adulthood tended to be more concerned and showed more consistent increases in concern over time than younger or older people. Consistent with previous research, Big Five personality traits were correlated with environmental concerns. We present novel evidence that increases in concern were related to increases in the personality traits neuroticism and openness to experience. Indeed, changes in openness explained roughly 50% of the variance in changes in environmental concerns. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the individual level factors associated with changes in environmental concerns over time, towards the promotion of more sustainable behavior at the individual level.

Reply to Connor and Evers (2020): Critique of the Bias of Crowds Model Simply Restates the Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Payne ◽  
Heidi A. Vuletich ◽  
Kristjen B. Lundberg
Keyword(s):  
Implicit Bias ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Systemic Racism ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Core ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
Implicit Biases ◽  
The Individual

The Bias of Crowds model (Payne, Vuletich, & Lundberg, 2017) argues that implicit bias varies across individuals and across contexts. It is unreliable and weakly associated with behavior at the individual level. But when aggregated to measure context-level effects, the scores become stable and predictive of group-level outcomes. We concluded that the statistical benefits of aggregation are so powerful that researchers should reconceptualize implicit bias as a feature of contexts, and ask new questions about how implicit biases relate to systemic racism. Connor and Evers (2020) critiqued the model, but their critique simply restates the core claims of the model. They agreed that implicit bias varies across individuals and across contexts; that it is unreliable and weakly associated with behavior at the individual level; and that aggregating scores to measure context-level effects makes them more stable and predictive of group-level outcomes. Connor and Evers concluded that implicit bias should be considered to really be noisily measured individual construct because the effects of aggregation are merely statistical. We respond to their specific arguments and then discuss what it means to really be a feature of persons versus situations, and multilevel measurement and theory in psychological science more broadly.

Leadership Enactment for Information System Acceptance: an Explanation from a Sensemaking Perspective

2019 ◽  
pp. 78-106
Author(s):  
Aruna Dayanatha ◽  
J A S K Jayakody
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
User Involvement ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Is Success ◽  
Managerial Leadership ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
System Acceptance ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Leadership Intervention ◽  
Is Failure

Information system (IS) projects have been seen to be failing at an alarmingly high rate. The prevailing explanations of IS failure have had only a limited success. Thus, the time may be right to look at the reasons for IS failure through an alternative perspective. This paper proposes that IS success should be explained in terms of managerial leadership intervention, from the sensemaking perspective. Managers are responsible for workplace outcomes; thus, it may be appropriate to explain their role in IS success as well. The sensemaking perspective can explain IS success through holistic user involvement, a concept which critiques of existing explanations have stated to be a requirement for explaining IS failure. This paper proposes a framework combining the theory of enactment and leadership enactment to theorize managerial leadership intervention for “IS success.” The proposed explanation postulates that the managerial leader’s envisioning of the future transaction set influences the liberation of the follower and cast enactment, while liberating followers and cast enactment constitute manager sensegiving. The managerial leader’s sense-giving influences follower sensemaking. Follower sensemaking, under the influence of managerial sensegiving, will lead to followers’ IS acceptance, and that constitutes IS success at the individual level. Further, collective level IS acceptance constitutes IS adaption/success, and this will influence the leader’s sensegiving, for the next round of sensemaking.

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