scholarly journals On The Value of Alert Systems and Gentle Rule Enforcement in Addressing Pandemics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yefim Roth ◽  
Ori Plonsky ◽  
Edith Shalev ◽  
Ido Erev
Keyword(s):  
Small Sample ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Responsible Behavior ◽  
The Social ◽  
Current Context ◽  
Cognitive Hierarchy ◽  
Reckless Behavior ◽  
Past Experiences

The recent COVID-19 pandemic poses a challenge to policy makers on how to make the population adhere to the social distancing and personal protection rules. The current research compares two ways by which tracking smartphone applications can be used to reduce the frequency of reckless behaviors that spread pandemics. The first involves the addition of alerts that increase the users’ benefit from responsible behavior. The second involves the addition of a rule enforcement mechanism that reduces the users’ benefit from reckless behavior. The effectiveness of the two additions is examined in an experimental study that focuses on an environment in which both additions are expected to be effective under the assumptions that the agents are expected-value maximizers, risk averse, behave in accordance with cumulative prospect theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992), or behave in accordance with the Cognitive Hierarchy model (Camerer, Ho & Chong, 2004). The results reveal a substantial advantage to the enforcement application. Indeed, the alerts addition was completely ineffective. The findings align with the small samples hypothesis, suggesting that decision makers tend to select the options that led to the best payoff in a small sample of similar past experiences. In the current context the tendency to rely on a small sample appears to be more consequential than other deviations from rational choice.

scholarly journals On the Value of Alert Systems and Gentle Rule Enforcement in Addressing Pandemics

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yefim Roth ◽  
Ori Plonsky ◽  
Edith Shalev ◽  
Ido Erev
Keyword(s):  
Small Sample ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Trust Game ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Hierarchy Model ◽  
Current Context ◽  
Cognitive Hierarchy ◽  
Reckless Behavior ◽  
Past Experiences

The COVID-19 pandemic poses a major challenge to policy makers on how to encourage compliance to social distancing and personal protection rules. This paper compares the effectiveness of two policies that aim to increase the frequency of responsible health behavior using smartphone-tracking applications. The first involves enhanced alert capabilities, which remove social externalities and protect the users from others’ reckless behavior. The second adds a rule enforcement mechanism that reduces the users’ benefit from reckless behavior. Both strategies should be effective if agents are expected-value maximizers, risk averse, and behave in accordance with cumulative prospect theory (Tversky and Kahneman, 1992) or in accordance with the Cognitive Hierarchy model (Camerer et al., 2004). A multi-player trust-game experiment was designed to compare the effectiveness of the two policies. The results reveal a substantial advantage to the enforcement application, even one with occasional misses. The enhanced-alert strategy was completely ineffective. The findings align with the small samples hypothesis, suggesting that decision makers tend to select the options that lead to the best payoff in a small sample of similar past experiences. In the current context, the tendency to rely on a small sample appears to be more consequential than other deviations from rational choice.

scholarly journals Interval Forecasting in Supply Chain with Small Sample

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Lifeng Wu ◽  
Yan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Human Judgment ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Grey Models ◽  
Short Time

To deal with the forecasting with small samples in the supply chain, three grey models with fractional order accumulation are presented. Human judgment of future trends is incorporated into the order number of accumulation. The output of the proposed model will provide decision-makers in the supply chain with more forecasting information for short time periods. The results of practical real examples demonstrate that the model provides remarkable prediction performances compared with the traditional forecasting model.

scholarly journals Nominative technique, a simple tool for assessing illegal wildlife consumption

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Davis ◽  
Brian Crudge ◽  
Jenny Anne Glikman
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
The Social ◽  
Levels Of Use ◽  
Bear Bile ◽  
Collection Methods

To test the efficacy of nominative technique within a small sample, we performed a total of 179 semi-structured interviews in Luang Prabang, northern Laos, in August 2017 and April 2019, using the domestic consumption of bears in northern Lao People’s Democratic Republic (hereafter Laos) as our case study. We also assessed whether the specialised questioning technique of nominative technique could be used within qualitative data collection methods, such as semi-structured interviews. The technique theoretically ensures more accurate statements of illegal wildlife consumption behaviour, by maintaining the anonymity of an individual’s sensitive behaviour through asking about the behaviour of peers. We also directly asked about participants’ use of bear bile. Nominative technique showed that approximately 11% of the participants’ peers used bear products, with respondents’ direct admittance of using bear bile was nearly double, at 23%. Use of bear parts appears to not be sensitive in northern Laos. In addition, a strong association was found between nominative technique and direct questioning responses, which indicates that users of bear parts have social networks with higher levels of use. This lends supports to theories that use of wildlife products is directly influenced by the social group. The underreporting found through nominative technique indicates the high variability of response that can occur within small samples; however, these results show that nominative technique may be a simple, useful tool for triangulating data, assessing users’ integration into social networks of use, and assessing changes in behaviour prevalence.

The social assistance policy in urban China: a critical review

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (5/6) ◽  
pp. 403-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haomiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Urban Poor ◽  
Social Assistance ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Urban China ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Assistance Programs ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
The Social

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess China’s urban social assistance policy, mainly by examining the findings of in-depth interviews with urban Dibao recipients in Chengdu about their experiences with social assistance, and by comparing what the social assistance offers with the urban poor households’ actual needs and vulnerabilities. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, the author interviewed 15 people from urban Dibao Households in Wuhou District and Qingyang District of Chengdu, China. The interviews were conducted from April to August in 2013, usually in their homes. The small sample naturally limits generalizations, however it can point to directions for future research. Findings – It is found out that urban Dibao which is the core of social assistance policy provides insufficient cash support and other special assistance programs are more of tokenistic which do not offer much help. Besides, due to lack of psychological aid, many recipients show negative and pessimistic attitudes toward life. Originality/value – Regarding the assessment of social assistance policy in China, the international literature has shown little interest. Several Chinese scholars have analyzed urban social assistance system, but they tend to examine or assess from the perspective of policy makers and focus on making policy suggestions. Thus, there is not much information about whether what the social assistance offers could meet the urban poor households’ actual needs and vulnerabilities. An interesting endeavor would be to explore and assess the urban social assistance policy from the perspective of the recipients, and this is exactly what this paper aims to do.

How to Correct for Chance Agreement in the Estimation of Sensitivity and Specificity of Diagnostic Tests

1994 ◽  
Vol 33 (02) ◽  
pp. 180-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Brenner ◽  
O. Gefeller
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Disease Status ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Interval Estimate ◽  
Traditional Concept ◽  
Interval Estimates ◽  
Major Disadvantage ◽  
Test Result

Abstract:The traditional concept of describing the validity of a diagnostic test neglects the presence of chance agreement between test result and true (disease) status. Sensitivity and specificity, as the fundamental measures of validity, can thus only be considered in conjunction with each other to provide an appropriate basis for the evaluation of the capacity of the test to discriminate truly diseased from truly undiseased subjects. In this paper, chance-corrected analogues of sensitivity and specificity are presented as supplemental measures of validity, which pay attention to the problem of chance agreement and offer the opportunity to be interpreted separately. While recent proposals of chance-correction techniques, suggested by several authors in this context, lead to measures which are dependent on disease prevalence, our method does not share this major disadvantage. We discuss the extension of the conventional ROC-curve approach to chance-corrected measures of sensitivity and specificity. Furthermore, point and asymptotic interval estimates of the parameters of interest are derived under different sampling frameworks for validation studies. The small sample behavior of the estimates is investigated in a simulation study, leading to a logarithmic modification of the interval estimate in order to hold the nominal confidence level for small samples.

Political psychology in the digital (mis)information age: A model of news belief and sharing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay Joseph Van Bavel ◽  
Elizabeth Ann Harris ◽  
Philip Pärnamets ◽  
Steve Rathje ◽  
Kimberly Doell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cognitive Psychology ◽  
Information Age ◽  
Policy Research ◽  
Integrative Model ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
The Social

The spread of misinformation, including “fake news,” propaganda, and conspiracy theories, represents a serious threat to society, as it has the potential to alter beliefs, behavior, and policy. Research is beginning to disentangle how and why misinformation is spread and identify processes that contribute to this social problem. We propose an integrative model to understand the social, political, and cognitive psychology risk factors that underlie the spread of misinformation and highlight strategies that might be effective in mitigating this problem. However, the spread of misinformation is a rapidly growing and evolving problem; thus scholars need to identify and test novel solutions, and work with policy makers to evaluate and deploy these solutions. Hence, we provide a roadmap for future research to identify where scholars should invest their energy in order to have the greatest overall impact.

Adolescent Development and Capacity Building

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esther F. Akinsola ◽  
Anne C. Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Capacity Building ◽  
Adolescent Development ◽  
Developmental Stages ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Developmental Tasks ◽  
Cultural Contexts ◽  
Global Policy ◽  
Development Capacity ◽  
The Social ◽  
Late Stages

This chapter describes adolescent development within the context of capacity building, reviews the global adolescent capacity-building initiatives, and provides a link between developmental tasks of adolescence and capacity building. It highlights the importance of incorporating assessment of adolescents’ capacity-building needs at individual, community, and organizational levels into global policy and programs and suggests effective approaches to building adolescent development capacity that include adopting the “stage–environment–fit,” in which stage represents the developmental stages (early, middle, late stages) of adolescents and emphasizes developmental tasks of adolescence, while environment represents the social and cultural contexts in which the adolescents live. That adolescents need to be engaged as planners, decision-makers, and participants in programs that build their capacity and translation of global policies into policies of governments is emphasized.

Sentencing Policy as a Force for Social Cohesion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Henham
Keyword(s):  
Social Cohesion ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Social Values ◽  
Social Reality ◽  
Social Forces ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Normative Approach ◽  
The Social ◽  
Sentencing Policy

This chapter sets out the case for adopting a normative approach to conceptualizing the social reality of sentencing. It argues that policy-makers need to comprehend how sentencing is implicated in realizing state values and take greater account of the social forces that diminish the moral credibility of state sponsored punishment. The chapter reflects on the problems of relating social values to legal processes such as sentencing and argues that crude notions of ‘top down’ or ‘bottom up’ approaches to policy-making should be replaced by a process of contextualized policy-making. Finally, the chapter stresses the need for sentencing policy to reflect those moral attachments that bind citizens together in a relational or communitarian sense. It concludes by exploring these assertions in the light of the sentencing approach taken by the courts following the English riots of 2011.

The Logic of Affect

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Markwica
Keyword(s):  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Coercive Diplomacy ◽  
Limited Ability ◽  
Social Nature ◽  
The Social ◽  
Alternative Action ◽  
Action Model

Chapter 2 develops the logic of affect, or emotional choice theory, as an alternative action model besides the traditional logics of consequences and appropriateness. Drawing on research in psychology and sociology, the model captures not only the social nature of emotions but also their bodily and dynamic character. It posits that the interplay between identities, norms, and five key emotions—fear, anger, hope, pride, and humiliation—can shape decision-making in profound ways. The chapter derives a series of propositions how these five key emotions tend to influence the choice behavior of political leaders whose countries are targeted by coercive diplomacy. These propositions specify the affective conditions under which target leaders are likely to accept or reject a coercer’s demands. Even when emotions produce powerful impulses, humans will not necessarily act on them, however. The chapter thus also incorporates decision-makers’ limited ability to regulate their emotions into the logic of affect.

Commentary

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peggy J. Miller ◽  
Grace E. Cho
Keyword(s):  
Self Esteem ◽  
Social Imaginary ◽  
Active Engagement ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
Personal Meanings ◽  
Self Evaluation ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Past Experiences

Chapter 12, “Commentary: Personalization,” discusses the process of personalization, based on the portraits presented in Chapters 8–11. Personalization is not just a matter of individual variation; it is a form of active engagement through which individuals endow imaginaries with personal meanings and refract the imaginary through their own experiences. The portraits illustrate how the social imaginary of childrearing and self-esteem entered into dialogue with the complex realities of people’s lives. Parents’ ability to implement their childrearing goals was constrained and enabled by their past experiences and by socioeconomic conditions. The individual children were developing different strategies of self-evaluation, different expectations about how affirming the world would be, and different self-defining interests, and their self-making varied, depending on the situation. Some children received diagnoses of low self-esteem as early as preschool.

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