Introducing Uncertainty Quantification to Techno-economic Models of Manufacturing Field-Grown Plant-Made Products

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew James McNulty ◽  
Kirolos Kelada ◽  
Debashis Paul ◽  
Somen Nandi ◽  
Karen McDonald
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Capital Intensity ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Entry Barrier ◽  
Biotechnological Products ◽  
Promising Strategy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Current Paradigm ◽  
Grown Plant

There is a growing demand for large market natural and biotechnological products, for example, consumer preferences drive plant-based meat alternatives, health risks of sugar overconsumption continue to motivate alternative sweeteners, and the COVID-19 pandemic has reinvigorated interest in countries developing in-house vaccine and medication production capabilities. The current paradigm of bioreactor-based biomanufacturing faces difficulties of scalability and a high entry barrier of capital intensity and workforce specialization. Field-grown plant-based manufacturing, as an inexpensive and readily scalable platform, is a promising strategy to meet this emerging demand. Despite some successes in field-grown bioproducts manufacturing by companies such as Ventria Biosciences, concerns of product variability have largely stymied growth in this area. Here we report on the development and use of techno-economic modeling coupled with Monte Carlo-based uncertainty quantification as an effective tool to quantify and mitigate the impact of crop variation on product quality and supply for field-grown plant-based manufacturing.

The Impact of Hypoglycemia on Productivity Loss and Utility in Type 2 Diabetes Patients Treated with Insulin in Real-World Canadian Practice: Protocol for a Prospective Study (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronique Lambert-Obry ◽  
Jean-Philippe Lafrance ◽  
Michelle Savoie ◽  
Jean Lachaine
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Prospective Study ◽  
Real World ◽  
Productivity Loss ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Productivity Cost ◽  
Productivity Losses ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) imposes a significant burden, with its increasing prevalence and life-threatening complications. In patients not achieving glycemic targets on oral antidiabetic drugs, initiation of insulin is recommended. However, a serious concern about insulin is drug-induced hypoglycemia. Hypoglycemia is known to affect quality of life and healthcare resource utilization. However, health economics and outcomes research (HEOR) data for economic modeling are limited, particularly in terms of utility values and productivity losses. OBJECTIVE The aim of this real-world prospective study is to assess the impact of hypoglycemia on productivity and utility in insulin-treated T2DM adults from Ontario and Quebec (Canada). METHODS This noninterventional, multicenter, 3-month prospective study will recruit patients from four medical clinics and two endocrinology/diabetes clinics. Patients will be identified using appointment lists, and enrolled through consecutive sampling during routinely scheduled consultations. To be eligible, patients must be ≥18 years of age, diagnosed with T2DM, and treated with insulin. Utility and productivity will be collected using the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire and the iMTA Productivity Cost Questionnaire (iPCQ), respectively. Questionnaires will be completed at 4, 8 and 12 weeks after recruitment. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) models will be used to investigate productivity losses and utility decrements associated with incident hypoglycemic events while controlling for individual patient characteristics. A total of 500 patients will be enrolled to ensure precision of HEOR estimates. RESULTS This study is designed to fill a gap in the Canadian evidence on the impact of hypoglycemia on HEOR outcomes. More specifically, it will generate productivity and utility inputs for economic modeling in T2DM. CONCLUSIONS Insulin therapies are expensive, and hypoglycemia is a significant component of economic evaluations. Robust HEOR data may help health technology assessment (HTA) agencies in future reimbursement decision making.

scholarly journals The Impact of Oral and Written Feedback on EFL Writers With the Use of Screencasts

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Alvira
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Language ◽  
Language Learners ◽  
Private University ◽  
Written Feedback ◽  
Oral Feedback ◽  
Foreign Language Learners ◽  
Promising Strategy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Results

<p>This article, based on an action research study performed at a Colombian middle-sized private university, proposes specific strategies to provide feedback to English as a foreign language learners and uses a Web 2.0 tool called screencasting. The findings of the study suggest that the use of coded, written, and oral feedback is widely accepted by students and yields positive results in the improvement of their writing skills at the paragraph level, and that the use of screencasting is a promising strategy that is motivational to students and increases the quality of their uptake.</p>

scholarly journals Pengaruh Capital Intensity, Liquidity dan Sales Growth Terhadap Agresivitas Pajak

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Nisadiyanti ◽  
Willy Sri Yuliandhari
Keyword(s):  
Coal Mining ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Capital Intensity ◽  
Sales Growth ◽  
Tax Aggressiveness ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Research Period ◽  
Positive Effect

The purpose of this study s to find out the impact of capital intensity, liquidity and sales growth on tax aggressiveness. This study uses a population in the coal mining sub-industry corporate listed on the IDX from 2016 to 2019 period. The sample selection technique used is purposive sampling, 14 coal mining sub-industry corporate were selected and the research period was 4 years. Therefore, as many as 56 samples were obtained in this study. The data analysis method used is panel data regression analysis using EViews 11 software. The results show that capital intensity, liquidity and sales growth affect tax aggressiveness simultaneously. Partially, liquidity has a positive effect on tax aggressiveness, while capital intensity and sales growth do not affect tax aggressiveness.

scholarly journals Assessment of Social Acceptance for Autonomous Vehicles in Southeastern Poland

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5778
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Dudziak ◽  
Monika Stoma ◽  
Andrzej Kuranc ◽  
Jacek Caban
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Social Acceptance ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Autonomous Vehicle ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Automotive Market ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Autonomous Cars ◽  
The Impact

New technologies reaching out for meeting the needs of an aging population in developed countries have given rise to the development and gradual implementation of the concept of an autonomous vehicle (AV) and have even made it a necessity and an important business paradigm. However, in parallel, there is a discussion about consumer preferences and the willingness to pay for new car technologies and intelligent vehicle options. The main aim of the study was to analyze the impact of selected factors on the perception of the future of autonomous cars by respondents from the area of Southeastern Poland in terms of a comparison with traditional cars, with particular emphasis on the advantages and disadvantages of this concept. The research presented in this study was conducted in 2019 among a group of 579 respondents. Data analysis made it possible to identify potential advantages and disadvantages of the concept of introducing autonomous cars. A positive result of the survey is that 68% of respondents stated that AV will be gradually introduced to our market, which confirms the high acceptance of this technology by Poles. The obtained research results may be valuable information for governmental and local authorities, but also for car manufacturers and their future users. It is an important issue in the area of shaping the strategy of actions concerning further directions of development on the automotive market.

scholarly journals Application and Comparison of Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Railway Vehicle Dynamics with Random Mechanical Parameters

Mechanika ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 455-462
Author(s):  
Dawei Zhang ◽  
Peijuan Xu ◽  
Daniele Bigoni
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Vehicle Dynamics ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Collocation Methods ◽  
Impact Behavior ◽  
Railway Vehicle ◽  
Parametric Uncertainties ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to investigate uncertainties in railway vehicle suspension components and the implement of uncertainty quantification methods in railway vehicle dynamics. The sampling-based method represented by Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and generalized polynomial chaos approaches including the stochastic Galerkin and Collocation methods (SGM and SCM) are employed to analyze the propagation of uncertainties from the parameters input in a vehicle-track mathematical model to the results of running dynamics. In order to illustrate the performance qualities of SGM, SCM and LHS, a stochastic wheel model with uncertainties of the stiffness and damping is firstly formulated to study the vertical displacement of wheel. Numerical results show that SCM, which can be easily implemented by means of the existing deterministic model, has explicit advantages over SGM and LHS in terms of the efficiency and accuracy. Furthermore, a simplified stochastic bogie model with three random suspension parameters is also established by means of SCM and LHS to analyze the critical speed, which is affected obviously by the parametric uncertainties. Finally, a stochastic vertical vehicle-track coupled model with parametric uncertainties is built comprehensively on the basis of SCM, by which the impact behavior of wheel-rail interaction under a rail defect is investigated and the dynamic response of vehicles under the track irregularity is explored in terms of the Sperling index. It concludes that the uncertainties of parameters have a significant influence on P2 force and Sperling index from the view of the running quality.

Quantifying the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Passenger Vehicle Drivers’ Willingness to Pay for Travel Time Savings and Reliability

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110388
Author(s):  
Tristan Cherry ◽  
Mark Fowler ◽  
Claire Goldhammer ◽  
Jeong Yun Kweun ◽  
Thomas Sherman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Travel Time ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
Travel Time Reliability ◽  
Travel Time Savings ◽  
Time Savings ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally disrupted travel behavior and consumer preferences. To slow the spread of the virus, public health officials and state and local governments issued stay-at-home orders and, among other actions, closed nonessential businesses and educational facilities. The resulting recessionary effects have been particularly acute for U.S. toll roads, with an observed year-over-year decline in traffic and revenue of 50% to 90% in April and May 2020. These disruptions have also led to changes in the types of trip that travelers make and their frequency, their choice of travel mode, and their willingness to pay tolls for travel time savings and travel time reliability. This paper describes the results of travel behavior research conducted on behalf of the Virginia Department of Transportation before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the National Capital Region of Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Northern Virginia. The research included a stated preference survey to estimate travelers’ willingness to pay for travel time savings and travel time reliability, to support forecasts of traffic and revenue for existing and proposed toll corridors. The survey collected data between December 2019 and June 2020. A comparison of the data collected before and during the pandemic shows widespread changes in travel behavior and a reduction in willingness to pay for travel time savings and travel time reliability across all traveler types, particularly for drivers making trips to or from work. These findings have significant implications for the return of travelers to toll corridors in the region and future forecasts of traffic and revenue.

Pay Now or Later? The Impact of Temporal Separation of Payments and Consumption on Consumer Payment Preferences

2011 ◽  
pp. 172-205
Author(s):  
Ranjan Dutta ◽  
Jonathan J. Koehler
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Economics ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Temporal Separation ◽  
Psychological Variables ◽  
Economics Literature ◽  
Systematic Relationships ◽  
Pricing Schemes ◽  
The Impact

In this chapter, we draw on the behavioral economics literature to identify the conditions under which consumers would prefer one of three pricing schemes (pre-payment, pay-as-you-go, and post-payment). We suggest that consumer preferences for particular pricing schemes are likely to be determined by systematic relationships that exist among a variety of psychological variables. We offer nine empirical propositions that identify when consumers will prefer different pricing schemes.

scholarly journals Review of sustainable diets: are nutritional objectives and low-carbon-emission objectives compatible?

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Doro ◽  
Vincent Réquillart
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Meat Products ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Gas Content ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Food systems in developed countries face one major challenge, namely the promotion of diets that are both healthy and generate less greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). In this article, we review papers evaluating the impact of a change in diets on both health and GHGE. We address the following questions: How big are the health and environmental impacts that could be induced by a switch to healthier diets? In monetary value, what is the relative importance of the health impact and the environmental impact? Is it possible to design an economic policy to increase global welfare that also takes into account the externalities on both health and the environment? Since the way the change in diet is modeled is a key issue, we classify papers according to the methodology used for simulating diet changes: ad hoc scenarios, optimized diets, and economic modeling. We find that it is possible to design economic policies that have positive impacts on both dimension. Because the substitutions/complementarities between food products are complex, it is not granted that a policy targeting one dimension will generate positive effects on the other dimensions. However, given the diversity of substitution and the complementarity possibilities between products, it is possible to design a policy that does improve both dimensions. A carbon-based tax policy that targets the products with a high greenhouse gas content (e.g., meat products) and reinvests the revenues collected with the tax to subsidize the consumption of fruit and vegetables, is likely to have positive effects on both dimensions.

When Does Partitioned Pricing Lead to More Favorable Consumer Preferences?: Meta-Analytic Evidence

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 686-703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajay T. Abraham ◽  
Rebecca W. Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Product Category ◽  
Partitioned Pricing ◽  
Multiple Components ◽  
Pricing Research ◽  
High Benefit ◽  
Price Presentation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Price

Evidence of the impact of partitioned pricing is contradictory. Research indicates that partitioning a price into multiple components can result in more favorable preferences, due to a lower recalled price, or less favorable preferences, due to unfavorable surcharge evaluations. To explain these divergent effects, the authors examine the role of price presentation moderators, which reflect how managers convey prices to consumers (e.g., Is the total price present or absent?), magnitude moderators, which reflect the actual prices charged (e.g., What is the surcharge magnitude?), and contextual moderators, which reflect nonprice transaction characteristics (e.g., Is the product category hedonic or utilitarian?). A meta-analysis of 17 years of partitioned pricing research examining 149 observations in 27 papers (N = 12,878) suggests that consumers respond more favorably to partitioned pricing than to all-inclusive pricing when the total price is absent, as the price level increases, when the surcharges are typical for the product category, when the surcharges are perceived as offering high benefit, and when the product category is utilitarian.

What Factors Influence Consumer Preferences for Search and Credence Seafood Characteristics? an Empirical Analysis in Kentucky and South Carolina

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
English Ratliff ◽  
Michael Vassalos ◽  
Wuyang Hu
Keyword(s):  
South Carolina ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Direct Marketing ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Purchasing Decisions ◽  
Consumption Frequency ◽  
Seafood Products ◽  
The Impact

AbstractConsistent with preferences for other food products, consumers increasingly care about a range of search and credence seafood characteristics such as: environmental effects and product form. This study utilized a dataset obtained from an online survey, and a Multivariate Ordered Probit formulation to examine the impact of: demographic characteristics, lifestyle preferences, and seafood consumption frequency on preferences for selected seafood attributes. The findings indicate that the factors influencing consumer preferences differ across the attributes examined. Although some demographic variables have a statistically significant effect on consumers’ preferences for seafood attributes other than price, their predictive power was limited regarding preferences for wild-caught, fresh seafood and the impact of sustainability on purchasing decisions. Furthermore, consumers who utilize direct marketing outlets have stronger preferences towards fresh and wild-caught seafood products.

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