scholarly journals On the Quantification of Crowd Wisdom

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Lorenz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Decision Space ◽  
Practical Result ◽  
Crowd Wisdom ◽  
Conceptual Clarity ◽  
Two Measures ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual

Crowd wisdom is a fascinating metaphor in the realm of collective intelligence. However, even for the simple case of estimation tasks of one continuous value, the quantification of the phenomenon lacks some conceptual clarity. Two interrelated questions of quantification are at stake. First, how can we best aggregate the collective decision from a sample of estimates, with the mean or the median? Arguments are not only statistical but also related to the question if democratic decision-making can have an epistemic quality. A practical result of this study is that we should usually aggregate democratic decisions by the median, but have a backup with the mean when the decision space has two natural bounds and societies polarize. The second question is, how we can quantify the degree of crowd wisdom in a sample and how it can be distinguished from the individual wisdom of its members? Two measures will be presented and discussed. One can also be used to quantify optimal crowd sizes. Even purely statistical, it turns out that smaller crowds are more advisable when intermediate systematic errors in estimating crowds are frequent. In such cases, larger crowds are more likely to be outperformed by a single estimator.

scholarly journals Penerapan Bimbingan Kelompok Berbasis Lalaran untuk Mengatasi Kecemasan terhadap Hafalan Santri Di Pondok Pesantren

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-26
Author(s):  
Jamilatul Fadliyah ◽  
Hernisawati Hernisawati
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Boarding School ◽  
Boarding Schools ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Output Table ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Normality Test ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual

Basically everyone has felt anxiety at a certain moment in his life. But if the anxiety experienced is very excessive and left alone without the direction of someone can be very detrimental to the individual. As for memorization, anxiety often arises experienced by students. The need for guidance to facilitate students in memorizing and can reduce the level of anxiety they experience. Therefore, the formation of the application of group-based guidance in order to reduce anxiety in memorizing students in boarding schools. From the results of the normality test results Sig. obtained a probability value> 0.05 then the results can be stated normally. From the test results Sig. Based on the Mean of Sig. 0.058> 0.05 variance of the data resulting from the application of group-based guidance in the experimental class and the control class is homogeneous. Based on the results of the group statistics above we can find out from the data generated by the experimental class as many as 10 people have an average value of 152.70 and in the control class as many as 10 people have an average value of 124.00 that has been obtained by each class. Independent samples test output table test results of students learning we can know the value of Sig. (2-tailed) is 0,000. Based on the criteria in decision making 0,000 <0.05, then Ho is rejected and Ha is accepted. So that there is a significant influence in the application of group-based guidance in overcoming anxiety over memorization of the Sabrowi C class of Roudlotut Tholibin Islamic Boarding School.

scholarly journals Beyond IQ: The Importance of Metacognition for the Promotion of Global Wellbeing

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Lav R. Varshney ◽  
Aron K. Barbey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Mindfulness Meditation ◽  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Social Problem Solving ◽  
Metacognitive Awareness ◽  
Metacognitive Skills ◽  
Virtuous Cycle ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Societal Problems

Global policy makers increasingly adopt subjective wellbeing as a framework within which to measure and address human development challenges, including policies to mitigate consequential societal problems. In this review, we take a systems-level perspective to assemble evidence from studies of wellbeing, of collective intelligence, and of metacognition and argue for a virtuous cycle for health promotion in which the increased collective intelligence of groups: (1) enhances the ability of such groups to address consequential societal problems; (2) promotes the wellbeing of societies and the individual wellbeing of people within groups; and, finally, (3) enables prosocial actions that further promote collective problem-solving and global wellbeing. Notably, evidence demonstrates that effective collaboration and teamwork largely depend on social skills for metacognitive awareness—the capacity to evaluate and control our own mental processes in the service of social problem-solving. Yet, despite their importance, metacognitive skills may not be well-captured by measures of general intelligence. These skills have instead been the focus of decades of research in the psychology of human judgment and decision-making. This literature provides well-validated tests of metacognitive awareness and demonstrates that the capacity to use analysis and deliberation to evaluate intuitive responses is an important source of individual differences in decision-making. Research in network neuroscience further elucidates the topology and dynamics of brain networks that enable metacognitive awareness, providing key targets for intervention. As such, we further discuss emerging scientific interventions to enhance metacognitive skills (e.g., based on mindfulness meditation, and physical activity and aerobic fitness), and how such interventions may catalyze the virtuous cycle to improve collective intelligence, societal problem-solving, and global wellbeing.

scholarly journals Harnessing the Wisdom of the Crowd to Forecast Incident and Cumulative COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathryn S Taylor ◽  
James W Taylor
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Accurate Method ◽  
The United States ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Combining Methods

Background Forecasting models have played a pivotal role in decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic, predicting the numbers of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. However, questions have been raised about the role and reliability of models. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential benefits of combining probabilistic forecasts from multiple models for forecasts of incident and cumulative COVID mortalities. Methods We considered 95% interval and point forecasts of weekly incident and cumulative COVID-19 mortalities between 16 May 2020 and 8 May 2021 in multiple locations in the United States. We compared the accuracy of simple and more complex combining methods, as well as individual models. Results The average of the forecasts from the individual models was consistently more accurate than the average performance of these models, which provides a fundamental motivation for combining. Weighted combining performed well for both incident and cumulative mortalities, and for both interval and point forecasting. Inverse score with tuning was the most accurate method overall. The median combination was a leading method in the last quarter for both mortalities, and it was consistently more accurate than the mean combination for point forecasting of both mortalities. For interval forecasts of cumulative mortality, the mean performed better than the median. The leading individual models were most competitive for point forecasts of incident mortality. Conclusions We recommend that harnessing the wisdom of the crowd can improve the contribution of probabilistic forecasting of epidemics to health policy decision making, and report that the relative performance of the different combining methods depends on several factors including the type of data, type of forecast and timing.

A Simple Method for the Evaluation of Internal Doses in Nuclear Medicine

1974 ◽  
Vol 13 (02) ◽  
pp. 193-206
Author(s):  
L. Conte ◽  
L. Mombelli ◽  
A. Vanoli
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Medicine ◽  
Close Agreement ◽  
Whole Body ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Rapid Estimation ◽  
Absorbed Doses ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Estimation Of Risk

SummaryWe have put forward a method to be used in the field of nuclear medicine, for calculating internally absorbed doses in patients. The simplicity and flexibility of this method allow one to make a rapid estimation of risk both to the individual and to the population. In order to calculate the absorbed doses we based our procedure on the concept of the mean absorbed fraction, taking into account anatomical and functional variability which is highly important in the calculation of internal doses in children. With this aim in mind we prepared tables which take into consideration anatomical differences and which permit the calculation of the mean absorbed doses in the whole body, in the organs accumulating radioactivity, in the gonads and in the marrow; all this for those radionuclides most widely used in nuclear medicine. By comparing our results with dose obtained from the use of M.I.R.D.'s method it can be seen that when the errors inherent in these types of calculation are taken into account, the results of both methods are in close agreement.

SERUM THYROTROPHIN AND THE RESPONSE TO THYROTROPHIN RELEASING HORMONE IN SYMPTOMLESS AUTOIMMUNE THYROIDITIS AND IN BORDERLINE AND OVERT HYPOTHYROIDISM

1974 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 274-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gordin ◽  
P. Saarinen ◽  
R. Pelkonen ◽  
B.-A. Lamberg
Keyword(s):  
Autoimmune Thyroiditis ◽  
Elevated Serum ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Primary Hypothyroidism ◽  
Overt Hypothyroidism ◽  
Thyrotrophin Releasing Hormone ◽  
Releasing Hormone ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Serum Tsh

ABSTRACT Serum thyrotrophin (TSH) was determined by the double-antibody radioimmunoassay in 58 patients with primary hypothyroidism and was found to be elevated in all but 2 patients, one of whom had overt and one clinically borderline hypothyroidism. Six (29%) out of 21 subjects with symptomless autoimmune thyroiditis (SAT) had an elevated serum TSH level. There was little correlation between the severity of the disease and the serum TSH values in individual cases. However, the mean serum TSH value in overt hypothyroidism (93.4 μU/ml) was significantly higher than the mean value both in clinically borderline hypothyroidism (34.4 μU/ml) and in SAT (8.8 μU/ml). The response to the thyrotrophin-releasing hormone (TRH) was increased in all 39 patients with overt or borderline hypothyroidism and in 9 (43 %) of the 21 subjects with SAT. The individual TRH response in these two groups showed a marked overlap, but the mean response was significantly higher in overt (149.5 μU/ml) or clinically borderline hypothyroidism (99.9 μU/ml) than in SAT (35.3 μU/ml). Thus a normal basal TSH level in connection with a normal response to TRH excludes primary hypothyroidism, but nevertheless not all patients with elevated TSH values or increased responses to TRH are clinically hypothyroid.

DECISION-MAKING ON INVESTMENT OF IT-INNOVATION BASED ON FUZZY EXPERT INFORMATION

2018 ◽  
pp. 103-111
Author(s):  
Olga Olegovna Eremenko ◽  
Lyubov Borisovna Aminul ◽  
Elena Vitalievna Chertina
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Production Model ◽  
Investment Management ◽  
It Projects ◽  
Product Model ◽  
Project Cost ◽  
Reasoning System ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
The Individual

The subject of the research is the process of making managerial decisions for innovative IT projects investing. The paper focuses on the new approach to decision making on investing innovative IT projects using expert survey in a fuzzy reasoning system. As input information, expert estimates of projects have been aggregated into six indicators having a linguistic description of the individual characteristics of the project type "high", "medium", and "low". The task of decision making investing has been formalized and the term-set of the output variable Des has been defined: to invest 50-75% of the project cost; to invest 20-50% of the project cost; to invest 10-20% of the project cost; to send the project for revision; to turn down investing project. The fuzzy product model of making investment management decisions has been developed; it adequately describes the process of investment management. The expediency of using constructed production model on a practical example is shown.

The transformation of the decision-making process on the part of economic agents influenced by social constraints

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1202-1222
Author(s):  
M.V. Grechko ◽  
L.A. Kobina ◽  
S.A. Goncharenko
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Consumer Choice ◽  
Social Constraints ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Economic Knowledge ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Contextual Environment ◽  
Economic Constraints ◽  
External Signals

Subject. The article focuses on the decision-making mechanism used by economic agents given the existing social constraints. Objectives. We devise applied toolkit to study how socio-economic constraints transform the decision-making mechanism used by economic agents. Methods. The study involves means of the expert survey, the method that streamlines economic knowledge. Results. Social constraints are illustrated to influence the decision-making mechanism used by economic agents, assuming that the individual mind relies on specific mechanisms to make judgments and decisions. Generally, the mechanisms are very useful, however they may generate serious errors during the decision-making process. Given the social constraints, economic agents were found to follow four mental models to make their decisions in case of the full or partial uncertainty, i.e. the representative relevance, accessibility, relations, heuristics (modeling). Conclusions and Relevance. The scientific ideas herein show that the inner architecture of a choice an individual makes determines his or her decisions. The decisions often depend on the contextual environment that gives external signals perceived by the individual while evaluating alternative ways. The findings can possibly be used as a mechanism to manage the consumer choice.

Quality of Life for Children with Persistent Sinonasal Symptoms

2003 ◽  
Vol 128 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Kay ◽  
Richard M. Rosenfeld
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Longitudinal Change ◽  
Good Test ◽  
Routine Clinical Care ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Sinonasal Symptoms

OBJECTIVE: The goal was to validate the SN-5 survey as a measure of longitudinal change in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for children with persistent sinonasal symptoms. DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a before and after study of 85 children aged 2 to 12 years in a metropolitan pediatric otolaryngology practice. Caregivers completed the SN-5 survey at entry and at least 4 weeks later. The survey included 5 symptom-cluster items covering the domains of sinus infection, nasal obstruction, allergy symptoms, emotional distress, and activity limitations. RESULTS: Good test-retest reliability ( R = 0.70) was obtained for the overall SN-5 score and the individual survey items ( R ≥ 0.58). The mean baseline SN-5 score was 3.8 (SD, 1.0) of a maximum of 7.0, with higher scores indicating poorer HRQoL. All SN-5 items had adequate correlation ( R ≥ 0.36) with external constructs. The mean change in SN-5 score after routine clinical care was 0.88 (SD, 1.19) with an effect size of 0.74 indicating good responsiveness to longitudinal change. The change scores correlated appropriately with changes in related external constructs ( R ≥ 0.42). CONCLUSIONS: The SN-5 is a valid, reliable, and responsive measure of HRQoL for children with persistent sinonasal symptoms, suitable for use in outcomes studies and routine clinical care.

scholarly journals VARIABILITY OF EVOLUTIONARY RATES OF DNA

Genetics ◽  
1986 ◽  
Vol 113 (4) ◽  
pp. 1077-1091
Author(s):  
John H Gillespie
Keyword(s):  
Dna Sequences ◽  
Significant Excess ◽  
Ergodic Markov Chain ◽  
The Third ◽  
Markov Chain Models ◽  
Rate Of Molecular Evolution ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Nuclear Loci ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Evolution Of Proteins

ABSTRACT A statistical analysis of DNA sequences from four nuclear loci and five mitochondrial loci from different orders of mammals is described. A major aim of the study is to describe the variation in the rate of molecular evolution of proteins and DNA. A measure of rate variability is the statistic R, the ratio of the variance in the number of substitutions to the mean number. For proteins, R is found to be in the range 0.16 &lt; R &lt; 35.55, thus extending in both directions the values seen in previous studies. An analysis of codons shows that there is a highly significant excess of double substitutions in the first and second positions, but not in the second and third or first and third positions. The analysis of the dynamics of nucleotide evolution showed that the ergodic Markov chain models that are the basis of most published formulas for correcting for multiple substitutions are incompatible with the data. A bootstrap procedure was used to show that the evolution of the individual nucleotides, even the third positions, show the same variation in rates as seen in the proteins. It is argued that protein and silent DNA evolution are uncoupled, with the evolution at both levels showing patterns that are better explained by the action of natural selection than by neutrality. This conclusion is based primarily on a comparison of the nuclear and mitochondrial results.

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