scholarly journals Does Lower Benefits Incentivize Refugee Naturalization? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederik Juhl Jørgensen
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Social Assistance ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Low Education ◽  
Major Reform

Does lower benefits provide an incentive for refugees to naturalize? I identify the effect of lowering refugees’ benefits on their propensity to naturalize by leveraging quasi-random variation in refugees’ benefit levels induced by a major reform of the Danish social assistance system. The reform sharply reduced social assistance benefits by up to 50 percent for new refugees. I estimate the effect of this decrease in a regression discontinuity design and show that refugees’ propensity to naturalize jumps by about 13½ percentage points at the benefit cutoff. I demonstrate that this marked increase is most likely driven by increased incentives that drive refugees off welfare and into the labor market in the short-term. Moreover, I show that the positive effects on naturalization are concentrated among the most capable refugees who do not face the resource constraints that follow from low education.

scholarly journals The Effect of Electoral Systems on Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Sanz
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Percentage Points

I exploit the unique institutional framework of Spanish local elections, where municipalities follow different electoral systems depending on their population size, as mandated by a national law. Using a regression discontinuity design, I compare turnout under closed list proportional representation and under an open list, plurality-at-large system where voters can vote for individual candidates from the same or different party-lists. I find that the open list system increases turnout by between 1 and 2 percentage points. The results suggest that open list systems, which introduce competition both across and within parties, are conducive to more voter turnout.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Minimum-Wage Exemption of the Long-Term Unemployed in Germany

ILR Review ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 1095-1118
Author(s):  
Matthias Umkehrer ◽  
Philipp vom Berge
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Unemployment Duration ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
Job Seekers ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Employment Stability

The authors evaluate the exemption of long-term unemployed job seekers from Germany’s national minimum wage. Using linked survey and administrative micro data, they rely on a regression discontinuity design to identify the effects of the policy by comparing hiring rates, employment stability, and entry wages around the administrative threshold between short-term and long-term unemployment. They find that the exemption is very rarely used and that the minimum wage binds irrespective of past unemployment duration. While the minimum wage led to a relative rise in entry wages for the long-term unemployed compared to the short-term unemployed, the authors do not detect a relative deterioration in their employment prospects.

The Effects of the Initial English Language Learner Classification on Students’ Later Academic Outcomes

2017 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nami Shin
Keyword(s):  
Academic Achievement ◽  
English Language Learners ◽  
Language Learners ◽  
English Language ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Language Learner ◽  
Elementary Grades ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
State Laws ◽  
Positive Effects

Despite federal and state laws and regulations that require states and local districts to provide English language learners (ELLs) with support services, prior research has indicated that ELLs are, in general, lagging behind non-ELLs in academic achievement. An unanswered question is whether the initial designation of students as ELL influences their later academic achievement and how. Using a regression discontinuity design, this study compares the outcomes for students near the cutoff for being initially classified as ELL and initially fluent English proficient (IFEP) students. Among students near the cutoff, the classification had significant positive effects on ELLs’ academic achievement in elementary grades and, to some extent, in the later grades.

scholarly journals What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

2015 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW B. HALL
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Legislative Behavior ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The U.S

This article studies the interplay of U.S. primary and general elections. I examine how the nomination of an extremist changes general-election outcomes and legislative behavior in the U.S. House, 1980–2010, using a regression discontinuity design in primary elections. When an extremist—as measured by primary-election campaign receipt patterns—wins a “coin-flip” election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points, and the probability that the party wins the seat decreases by 35–54 percentage points. This electoral penalty is so large that nominating the more extreme primary candidate causes the district’s subsequent roll-call representation to reverse, on average, becoming more liberal when an extreme Republican is nominated and more conservative when an extreme Democrat is nominated. Overall, the findings show how general-election voters act as a moderating filter in response to primary nominations.

Political Devolution and Resistance to Foreign Rule: A Natural Experiment

2014 ◽  
Vol 108 (3) ◽  
pp. 642-660 ◽  
Author(s):  
JEREMY FERWERDA ◽  
NICHOLAS L. MILLER
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Central Question ◽  
World War ◽  
Foreign Occupation ◽  
The Relationship

Do foreign occupiers face less resistance when they increase the level of native governing authority? Although this is a central question within the literature on foreign occupation and insurgency, it is difficult to answer because the relationship between resistance and political devolution is typically endogenous. To address this issue, we identify a natural experiment based on the locally arbitrary assignment of French municipalities into German or Vichy-governed zones during World War II. Using a regression discontinuity design, we conclude that devolving governing authority significantly lowered levels of resistance. We argue that this effect is driven by a process of political cooptation: domestic groups that were granted governing authority were less likely to engage in resistance activity, while violent resistance was heightened in regions dominated by groups excluded from the governing regime. This finding stands in contrast to work that primarily emphasizes structural factors or nationalist motivations for resistance.

scholarly journals No extension without representation? Evidence from a natural experiment in collective bargaining

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Hijzen ◽  
Pedro S. Martins
Keyword(s):  
Collective Bargaining ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Collective Agreements ◽  
Causal Impact

AbstractIn many countries, collective bargaining coverage is enhanced by government-issued extensions that widen the reach of collective agreements beyond their signatory parties to all firms and workers in the sector. This paper analyzes the causal impact of extensions using a natural experiment in Portugal that resulted in a sharp and unanticipated decline in the extension probability of agreements. Our results, based on a regression discontinuity design, indicate that extensions had a negative impact on employment growth. This effect is concentrated among nonaffiliated firms, which may reflect the limited representativeness of employer associations.

Does Free Community College Improve Student Outcomes? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design

2021 ◽  
pp. 016237372199314
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Bell
Keyword(s):  
Community College ◽  
Student Outcomes ◽  
Degree Attainment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Bachelor's Degree ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
College Gpa ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Bachelor's Degree Attainment

In this article, I utilize a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of Tulsa Achieves—a prevalent and understudied type of tuition-free college program. In contrast to concerns regarding tuition-free community college suppressing bachelor’s degree attainment, I find that Tulsa Achieves increased the likelihood of transferring to 4-year colleges by 13 to 14 percentage points and increased bachelor’s degree attainment by approximately 2 percentage points. The estimates for shorter outcomes are underpowered to detect policy relevant effects, but suggest Tulsa Achieves increased college GPA and had a null impact on credit accumulation, retention, and graduation from Tulsa Community College.

scholarly journals The Effects of “Girl-Friendly” Schools: Evidence from the BRIGHT School Construction Program in Burkina Faso

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harounan Kazianga ◽  
Dan Levy ◽  
Leigh L Linden ◽  
Matt Sloan
Keyword(s):  
Primary School ◽  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Test Scores ◽  
Treatment Effects ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
School Construction ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
School Program ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Standard Deviations

We evaluate a “girl-friendly” primary school program in Burkina Faso using a regression discontinuity design. After 2.5 years, the program increased enrollment by 19 percentage points and increased test scores by 0.41 standard deviations. For those caused to attend school, scores increased by 2.2 standard deviations. Girls' enrollment increased by 5 percentage points more than boys' enrollment, but they experienced the same increase in test scores as boys. The unique characteristics of the schools are responsible for increasing enrollment by 13 percentage points and test scores by 0.35 standard deviations. They account for the entire difference in the treatment effects by gender. (JEL I21, I28, J16, O15)

scholarly journals The Effect of Public Insurance Coverage for Childless Adults on Labor Supply

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Dague ◽  
Thomas DeLeire ◽  
Lindsey Leininger
Keyword(s):  
Labor Supply ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Public Insurance ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Percent Decline ◽  
Rule Out

This study provides plausibly causal estimates of the effect of public insurance coverage on the employment of non-elderly, nondisabled adults without dependent children (“childless adults”). We take advantage of the sudden imposition of an enrollment cap in Wisconsin, comparing the labor supply of enrollees to eligible applicants placed on a waitlist using a regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences methods. We find enrollment into public insurance leads to sizable and statistically meaningful reductions in employment, with an estimated effect size of just over 5 percentage points, a 12 percent decline. Confidence intervals rule out positive and large negative effects. (JEL G22, H75, I13, I18, I38, J22)

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