scholarly journals High Replicability of Newly-Discovered Social-behavioral Findings is Achievable

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Protzko ◽  
Jon Krosnick ◽  
Leif D. Nelson ◽  
Brian A. Nosek ◽  
Jordan Axt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Original Study ◽  
Significance Testing ◽  
Replication Rate ◽  
Optimal Methods ◽  
Optimal Procedures ◽  
Experimental Findings ◽  
High Statistical Power

Failures to replicate evidence of new discoveries have forced scientists to ask whether this unreliability is due to suboptimal implementation of optimal methods or whether presumptively optimal methods are not, in fact, optimal. This paper reports an investigation by four coordinated laboratories of the prospective replicability of 16 novel experimental findings using current optimal practices: high statistical power, preregistration, and complete methodological transparency. In contrast to past systematic replication efforts that reported replication rates averaging 50%, replication attempts here produced the expected effects with significance testing (p<.05) in 86% of attempts, slightly exceeding maximum expected replicability based on observed effect size and sample size. When one lab attempted to replicate an effect discovered by another lab, the effect size in the replications was 97% that of the original study. This high replication rate justifies confidence in rigor enhancing methods and suggests that past failures to replicate may be attributable to departures from optimal procedures.

scholarly journals A Multi-faceted Mess: A Review of Statistical Power Analysis in Psychology Journal Articles

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rob Cribbie ◽  
Nataly Beribisky ◽  
Udi Alter
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Power Analysis ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Type I Error ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Type I ◽  
Specific Level ◽  
Maximum Sample Size ◽  
Power Analyses

Many bodies recommend that a sample planning procedure, such as traditional NHST a priori power analysis, is conducted during the planning stages of a study. Power analysis allows the researcher to estimate how many participants are required in order to detect a minimally meaningful effect size at a specific level of power and Type I error rate. However, there are several drawbacks to the procedure that render it “a mess.” Specifically, the identification of the minimally meaningful effect size is often difficult but unavoidable for conducting the procedure properly, the procedure is not precision oriented, and does not guide the researcher to collect as many participants as feasibly possible. In this study, we explore how these three theoretical issues are reflected in applied psychological research in order to better understand whether these issues are concerns in practice. To investigate how power analysis is currently used, this study reviewed the reporting of 443 power analyses in high impact psychology journals in 2016 and 2017. It was found that researchers rarely use the minimally meaningful effect size as a rationale for the chosen effect in a power analysis. Further, precision-based approaches and collecting the maximum sample size feasible are almost never used in tandem with power analyses. In light of these findings, we offer that researchers should focus on tools beyond traditional power analysis when sample planning, such as collecting the maximum sample size feasible.

scholarly journals Statistical Power in Content Analysis Designs: How Effect Size, Sample Size and Coding Accuracy Jointly Affect Hypothesis Testing ‐ A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach.

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-89
Author(s):  
Stefan Geiß
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Sample Size ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Expected Effect ◽  
Sample Size Effect

Abstract This study uses Monte Carlo simulation techniques to estimate the minimum required levels of intercoder reliability in content analysis data for testing correlational hypotheses, depending on sample size, effect size and coder behavior under uncertainty. The ensuing procedure is analogous to power calculations for experimental designs. In most widespread sample size/effect size settings, the rule-of-thumb that chance-adjusted agreement should be ≥.80 or ≥.667 corresponds to the simulation results, resulting in acceptable α and β error rates. However, this simulation allows making precise power calculations that can consider the specifics of each study’s context, moving beyond one-size-fits-all recommendations. Studies with low sample sizes and/or low expected effect sizes may need coder agreement above .800 to test a hypothesis with sufficient statistical power. In studies with high sample sizes and/or high expected effect sizes, coder agreement below .667 may suffice. Such calculations can help in both evaluating and in designing studies. Particularly in pre-registered research, higher sample sizes may be used to compensate for low expected effect sizes and/or borderline coding reliability (e.g. when constructs are hard to measure). I supply equations, easy-to-use tables and R functions to facilitate use of this framework, along with example code as online appendix.

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: Ramifications, Ruminations and Recommendations

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. K. Huysamen
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Significance Testing ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Null Hypothesis Significance Testing ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Size Estimates

Criticisms of traditional null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) became more pronounced during the 1960s and reached a climax during the past decade. Among others, NHST says nothing about the size of the population parameter of interest and its result is influenced by sample size. Estimation of confidence intervals around point estimates of the relevant parameters, model fitting and Bayesian statistics represent some major departures from conventional NHST. Testing non-nil null hypotheses, determining optimal sample size to uncover only substantively meaningful effect sizes and reporting effect-size estimates may be regarded as minor extensions of NHST. Although there seems to be growing support for the estimation of confidence intervals around point estimates of the relevant parameters, it is unlikely that NHST-based procedures will disappear in the near future. In the meantime, it is widely accepted that effect-size estimates should be reported as a mandatory adjunct to conventional NHST results.

USING R FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH: A TUTORIAL OF BASIC METHODS

2020 ◽  
pp. 28-63
Author(s):  
A. G. Vinogradov
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Sample Size Calculation ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Statistical Hypothesis ◽  
Categorical Variables ◽  
Measurement Scales

The article belongs to a special modern genre of scholar publications, so-called tutorials – articles devoted to the application of the latest methods of design, modeling or analysis in an accessible format in order to disseminate best practices. The article acquaints Ukrainian psychologists with the basics of using the R programming language to the analysis of empirical research data. The article discusses the current state of world psychology in connection with the Crisis of Confidence, which arose due to the low reproducibility of empirical research. This problem is caused by poor quality of psychological measurement tools, insufficient attention to adequate sample planning, typical statistical hypothesis testing practices, and so-called “questionable research practices.” The tutorial demonstrates methods for determining the sample size depending on the expected magnitude of the effect size and desired statistical power, performing basic variable transformations and statistical analysis of psychological research data using language and environment R. The tutorial presents minimal system of R functions required to carry out: modern analysis of reliability of measurement scales, sample size calculation, point and interval estimation of effect size for four the most widespread in psychology designs for the analysis of two variables’ interdependence. These typical problems include finding the differences between the means and variances in two or more samples, correlations between continuous and categorical variables. Practical information on data preparation, import, basic transformations, and application of basic statistical methods in the cloud version of RStudio is provided.

Statistical power of negative randomized clinical trials (RCTs) presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meetings

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 6516-6516
Author(s):  
P. Bedard ◽  
M. K. Krzyzanowska ◽  
M. Pintilie ◽  
I. F. Tannock
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Sample Size ◽  
Annual Meeting ◽  
Primary Endpoint ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Medium Effect ◽  
Post Hoc ◽  
Adequate Sample Size

6516 Background: Underpowered randomized clinical trials (RCTs) may expose participants to risks and burdens of research without scientific merit. We investigated the prevalence of underpowered RCTs presented at ASCO annual meetings. Methods: We surveyed all two-arm parallel phase III RCTs presented at the ASCO annual meeting from 1995–2003 where differences for the primary endpoint were non-statistically significant. Post hoc calculations were performed using a power of 80% and a=0.05 (two-sided) to determine the sample size required to detect a small, medium, and large effect size between the two groups. For studies reporting a proportion or time to event as a primary endpoint, effect size was expressed as an odds ratio (OR) or hazard ratio (HR) respectively, with a small effect size defined as OR/HR=1.3, medium effect size OR/HR=1.5, and large effect OR/HR=2.0. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with lack of statistical power. Results: Of 423 negative RCTs for which post hoc sample size calculations could be performed, 45 (10.6%), 138 (32.6%), and 333 (78.7%) had adequate sample size to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes respectively. Only 35 negative RCTs (7.1%) reported a reason for inadequate sample size. In a multivariable model, studies presented at plenary or oral sessions (p<0.0001) and multicenter studies supported by a co-operative group were more likely to have adequate sample size (p<0.0001). Conclusion: Two-thirds of negative RCTs presented at the ASCO annual meeting do not have an adequate sample to detect a medium-sized treatment effect. Most underpowered negative RCTs do not report a sample size calculation or reasons for inadequate patient accrual. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

scholarly journals Causality in Statistical Power: Isomorphic Properties of Measurement, Research Design, Effect Size, and Sample Size

Scientifica ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Eric Heidel
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Cognitive Dissonance ◽  
Research Design ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Research Study ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Sample Size Calculation ◽  
Design Effect

Statistical power is the ability to detect a significant effect, given that the effect actually exists in a population. Like most statistical concepts, statistical power tends to induce cognitive dissonance in hepatology researchers. However, planning for statistical power by ana priorisample size calculation is of paramount importance when designing a research study. There are five specific empirical components that make up ana priorisample size calculation: the scale of measurement of the outcome, the research design, the magnitude of the effect size, the variance of the effect size, and the sample size. A framework grounded in the phenomenon of isomorphism, or interdependencies amongst different constructs with similar forms, will be presented to understand the isomorphic effects of decisions made on each of the five aforementioned components of statistical power.

scholarly journals Towards a simplified justification of the chosen sample size

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick J. Broers ◽  
Henry Otgaar
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Power Analysis ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Minimal Effect ◽  
Expected Effect ◽  
Sufficient Statistical Power

Since the early work of Cohen (1962) psychological researchers have become aware of the importance of doing a power analysis to ensure that the predicted effect will be detectable with sufficient statistical power. APA guidelines require researchers to provide a justification of the chosen sample size with reference to the expected effect size; an expectation that should be based on previous research. However, we argue that a credible estimate of an expected effect size is only reasonable under two conditions: either the new study forms a direct replication of earlier work or the outcome scale makes use of meaningful and familiar units that allow for the quantification of a minimal effect of psychological interest. In practice neither of these conditions is usually met. We propose a different rationale for a power analysis that will ensure that researchers will be able to justify their sample size as meaningful and adequate.

scholarly journals Effect size and statistical power in the rodent fear conditioning literature – a systematic review

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa F. D. Carneiro ◽  
Thiago C. Moulin ◽  
Malcolm R. Macleod ◽  
Olavo B. Amaral
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Sample Size ◽  
Fear Conditioning ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Sample Size Calculation ◽  
Wide Distribution ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Biomedical Science ◽  
Case Scenario

AbstractProposals to increase research reproducibility frequently call for focusing on effect sizes instead of p values, as well as for increasing the statistical power of experiments. However, it is unclear to what extent these two concepts are indeed taken into account in basic biomedical science. To study this in a real-case scenario, we performed a systematic review of effect sizes and statistical power in studies on learning of rodent fear conditioning, a widely used behavioral task to evaluate memory. Our search criteria yielded 410 experiments comparing control and treated groups in 122 articles. Interventions had a mean effect size of 29.5%, and amnesia caused by memory-impairing interventions was nearly always partial. Mean statistical power to detect the average effect size observed in well-powered experiments with significant differences (37.2%) was 65%, and was lower among studies with non-significant results. Only one article reported a sample size calculation, and our estimated sample size to achieve 80% power considering typical effect sizes and variances (15 animals per group) was reached in only 12.2% of experiments. Actual effect sizes correlated with effect size inferences made by readers on the basis of textual descriptions of results only when findings were non-significant, and neither effect size nor power correlated with study quality indicators, number of citations or impact factor of the publishing journal. In summary, effect sizes and statistical power have a wide distribution in the rodent fear conditioning literature, but do not seem to have a large influence on how results are described or cited. Failure to take these concepts into consideration might limit attempts to improve reproducibility in this field of science.

The importance of considering effect size and statistical power in research

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Clark-Carter
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Clinical Psychologists ◽  
Future Research

This chapter explores why effect size needs to be taken into account when designing and reporting research. It gives an effect size for each of the standard statistical tests which health and clinical psychologists employ, and looks at the need to consider statistical power when choosing a sample size for a study and how statistical power can help to guide the advice which can be given when discussing future research.

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