scholarly journals Tracking priors and their replacement: Mental dynamics of decision making in the number-line task

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dror Dotan ◽  
Stanislas Dehaene
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prior Distribution ◽  
Explicit Instruction ◽  
Number Line ◽  
Finger Movement ◽  
Response Location ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
Behavioral Method ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
Trial Participants

Several theories of decision making assume that optimal decisions are reached by computing a prior distribution over possible responses, and then updating it according to the evidence received. We show how this prior replacement, with its two processing stages, can be captured with a simple behavioral method: tracking the finger movement as participants point to a response location. On each trial, participants saw a number and pointed to its location on a number line. In two experiments we manipulated either the prior, via the distribution of target numbers, or the initial finger direction, via explicit instruction. In both experiments, when a trial started the participants pointed toward the instructed direction, and in the last part of the trial they pointed toward the target. Critically, between these two stages there was a third, interim stage in which the participants pointed toward the prior before deviating toward the target. Transient pointing toward the prior was observed even when it induced a brief deviation away from the target. This pattern fits a model wherein decisions are first driven by prior knowledge, followed by the accumulation of trial-specific evidence.

Improving Struggling Fifth-Grade Students’ Understanding of Fractions: A Randomized Controlled Trial of an Intervention That Stresses Both Concepts and Procedures

2021 ◽  
pp. 001440292110088
Author(s):  
Madhavi Jayanthi ◽  
Russell Gersten ◽  
Robin F. Schumacher ◽  
Joseph Dimino ◽  
Keith Smolkowski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Randomized Controlled Trial ◽  
Explicit Instruction ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Number Line ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
Fifth Grade Students ◽  
Linear Representations ◽  
Mathematical Explanations ◽  
Grade 5 ◽  
Number Line Estimation

Using a randomized controlled trial, we examined the effect of a fractions intervention for students experiencing mathematical difficulties in Grade 5. Students who were eligible for the study ( n = 205) were randomly assigned to intervention and comparison conditions, blocked by teacher. The intervention used systematic, explicit instruction and relied on linear representations (e.g., Cuisenaire Rods and number lines) to demonstrate key fractions concepts. Enhancing students’ mathematical explanations was also a focus. Results indicated that intervention students significantly outperformed students from the comparison condition on measures of fractions proficiency and understanding ( g = 0.66–0.78), number line estimation ( g = 0.80–1.08), fractions procedures ( g = 1.07), and explanation tasks ( g = 0.68–1.23). Findings suggest that interventions designed to include explicit instruction, along with consistent use of the number line and opportunities to explain reasoning, can promote students’ proficiency and understanding of fractions.

scholarly journals Methodology of Integration for Competitive Technical Intelligence with Blue Ocean Strategy: Application to an exotic fruit

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marisela Rodríguez Salvador ◽  
Manuel Alejandro Bautista Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The State ◽  
Anacardium Occidentale ◽  
Critical Factors ◽  
The South ◽  
Strategic Development ◽  
Technical Intelligence ◽  
New Business ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
The University

This article presents a new methodology that integrates Competitive Technical Intelligence with Blue Ocean Strategy. We explore new business niches taking advantage of the synergy that both areas offer, developing a model based on cyclic interactions through a process developed in two stages: Understanding opportunity that arise from idea formulation to decision making and strategic development. The validity of our approach (first stage) was observed in the evaluation of an exotic fruit, Anacardium Occidentale, in the South of the State of Veracruz, Mexico with the support of the university ITESM, Campus Monterrey. We identified critical factors for success, opportunities and threats. Results confirm the attractiveness of this crop.

scholarly journals Best Thing Is Always in the Middle? An Investigation of Centrality Preference By Eye-Tracking Technique and Memory Recall

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lap-Yan Lo ◽  
Cheuk-Yu Tsang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Eye Tracking ◽  
Recall Test ◽  
Number Line ◽  
Mental Number Line ◽  
Horizontal Line ◽  
Memory Recall ◽  
Tracking Technique ◽  
Fixation Points ◽  
The Relationship

An object located in the centre position is believed to be the most attended and well remembered, which increases its likelihood of being chosen (i.e., centrality preference). However, the literature has yielded inconsistent evidence. With the support of an eye-tracking technique, this study tried to provide another means of examining the relationship between preference and attention. Thirty undergraduates were asked to choose one of five similar items presented on a horizontal line. The findings on eye fixation points and looking duration positively related to the probability of an item being chosen as the preferred item. Yet performance in a recall test revealed an independence between preference and remembering. Furthermore, an unexpectedly large proportion of the participants also preferred the items on the leftmost side of the array. The mental number line and social norms, together with centrality preference, were used to provide an explanation of our implicit preference in decision making.

scholarly journals Optimal Decisions for Two Risk-Averse Competitive Manufacturers under the Cap-and-Trade Policy and Uncertain Demand

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 1010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongxia Sun ◽  
Jie Yang ◽  
Yang Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Cap And Trade ◽  
Carbon Emission Reduction ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
The Government

With the increasingly serious problem of environmental pollution, reducing carbon emissions has become an urgent task for all countries. The cap-and-trade (C&T) policy has gained international recognition and has been adopted by several countries. In this paper, considering the uncertainty of market demand, we discuss the carbon emission reduction and price policies of two risk-averse competitive manufacturers under the C&T policy. The two manufacturers have two competitive behaviors: simultaneous decision making and sequential decision making. Two models were constructed for these behaviors. The optimal decisions, carbon emission reduction rate, and price were obtained from these two models. Furthermore, in this paper the effects of some key parameters on the optimal decision are discussed, and some managerial insights are obtained. The results show that the lower the manufacturers’ risk aversion level is, the higher their carbon emission reduction rate and utilities. As the carbon quota increases, the manufacturers’ optimal carbon reduction rate and utilities increase. Considering consumers’ environmental awareness, it is more beneficial for the government to reduce the carbon quota and motivate manufacturers’ internal enthusiasm for emission reduction. The government can, through macro control of the market, make carbon trading prices increase appropriately and encourage manufacturers to reduce carbon emissions.

scholarly journals Algorithm of optimal management for the efficient use of energy resources

2019 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 02052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Krasnov ◽  
Sergey Sergeev ◽  
Elizaveta Zotova ◽  
Nadezhda Grashchenko
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Optimal Management ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
Maximum Profit ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Business Entities

The paper presents the results of the developed algorithms aimed at optimizing management decision-making by the administration of megalopolises. A mathematical model is obtained within the concept of digital economy. The regulatory action of dispositive decisions is aimed at business entities whose activities are externalized while consuming energy resources. Since any resources are used unevenly throughout the year, the authors apply the methods of the theory of optimal decisions. The criterion is the functional reflection of the balance between the maximum profit, the comfort of living conditions, and the environmental conditions. The results obtained make it possible to take administrative decisions in an optimal way, which reduces the negative effects of externalities and results in the most efficient use of energy resources.

scholarly journals Research on Quality Decisions and Coordination with Reference Effect in Dual-Channel Supply Chain

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 2296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhou Xideng ◽  
Xu Bing ◽  
Xie Fei ◽  
Li Yu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Service Quality ◽  
Product Quality ◽  
Cost Sharing ◽  
Supply Chain System ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
Dual Channel ◽  
Reference Quality ◽  
Dual Channel Supply Chain

Although supply quality management has been studied extensively, one important marketing phenomenon, that is, reference effect has been rarely considered in dual-channel supply chain quality management literatures. In fact, the quality reference effect is also an important factor which influences consumer purchasing behavior. We aim to explore the influence of the reference effect on the optimal decisions and performance of a dual-channel supply. Thus, we formulate dynamic models that include the product quality reference effect and the service quality reference effect in a dual-channel supply chain system consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer under the different decision-making scenarios. Utilizing differential game theory, optimal decisions are obtained for the product quality and service quality decision under the different decision-making scenarios. In addition, the optimal decisions and profits are compared, then a service cost-sharing coordinating mechanism is proposed and proven to be effective in the supply chain system. The main results show when the initial reference service quality is low, the consumer service quality reference effect is beneficial to the manufacturer. The spillover effect of service quality is not conducive to the retailer and the manufacturer. When the initial reference product quality is low, both online and offline product quality reference effects are beneficial to the retailer and the manufacturer. The stable (or final) reference quality will not be affected by the initial reference quality. The sum of the two members’ profits under decentralized decision making is less than the total profit of the supply chain under centralized decision making. We design a cost-sharing coordinating mechanism to eliminate the double marginal effect.

scholarly journals A LOGISTIC APPROACH FOR DESCRIPTION OF DECISION-MAKING PROCESS / SPRENDIMŲ PRIĖMIMO APRAŠYMAS LOGISTINIU POŽIŪRIU

Aviation ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Grigorak ◽  
Olga Shkvar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
A Company

Managers must make strategic decisions to cope with issues of uncertainty, customer service and the management of a company. The objective of this paper is to analyse the problem of optimisation and search of rational logistic decisions, taking into account the human factor and, in particular, the preferences of people who make decisions and implement them during the logistic activity of an enterprise. The problem of making optimal decisions for transportation of goods, taking into account the factor of urgency was investigated. Santrauka Marketingo vadybininkai turi priimti strateginius sprendimus, kaip suvaldyti neaiškias situacijas, organizuoti darbą su klientais bei su įmonės vadovybe. Šio tyrimo tikslas yra problemos optimizavimo analizė bei racionalių logistinių sprendimų paieška, įvertinant subjektyvumą ir iš dalies—pirmenybės sistemą asmenims, kurie priima sprendimus ir užtikrina jųįvykdymą, įgyvendinant logistinęįmonės veiklą. Išanalizuotas optimalaus spendimo priėmimas gabenant krovinius, kai reikia įvertintį skubumo faktorių.

Online decision aids: the role of decision-making styles and decision-making stages

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (6) ◽  
pp. 555-574
Author(s):  
Preeti Virdi ◽  
Arti D. Kalro ◽  
Dinesh Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Online Retail ◽  
Consideration Set ◽  
Choice Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Choice Making ◽  
Search Tool ◽  
Consideration Set Formation ◽  
Two Stages

PurposeDecision aids (DAs) in online retail stores ease consumers' information processing. However, online consumers do not use all decision aids in purchase decision-making. While the literature has documented the effects of individual decision aids or two decision aids at a time, no study has compared the efficacy of multiple decision aids simultaneously. Also, very few studies have looked at the use of decision aids for consumers with maximizing and satisficing tendencies. Hence, this study aims to understand the preferences of maximizers and satisficers towards online decision aids during the choice-making process.Design/methodology/approachThis is an observational study with 60 individuals who were asked to purchase either a search-based or an experience-based product online. Participants' browsing actions and verbalizations during online shopping, were recorded and analysed using NVivo, and later the use of decision aids was mapped along their choice process.FindingsConsumer's preference of decision aids varies across the two stages of the choice process (that is, consideration set formation and evaluation & choice). In their choice formation, maximizers use different decision aids in both stages, that is, filter tool and in-website search tool for search products, and collaborative filtering-based recommender systems and eWOM for experience products. Satisficers used more decision aids as compared to maximizers across the two stages for both product types.Originality/valueThis study is an exploratory attempt to understand how consumers use multiple decision aids present on e-commerce websites.

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