scholarly journals COVID-19 and the Future of US Fertility: What Can We Learn from Google?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Wilde ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Sophie Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
African American Women ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Keyword Search ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
College Education ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Search Volume

We use data from Google Trends to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on future births in the United States. First, we show that periods of above-normal search volume for Google keywords relating to conception and pregnancy in US states are associated with higher numbers of births in the following months. Excess searches for unemployment keywords have the opposite effect. Second, by employing simple statistical learning techniques, we demonstrate that including information on keyword search volumes in prediction models significantly improves forecast accuracy over a number of cross-validation criteria. Third, we use data on Google searches during the COVID-19 pandemic to predict changes in aggregate fertility rates in the United States at the state level through February 2021. Our analysis suggests that between November 2020 and February 2021, monthly US births will drop sharply by approximately 15%. For context, this would be a 50% larger decline than that following the Great Recession of 2008-2009, and similar in magnitude to the declines following the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919 and the Great Depression. Finally, we find heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic across different types of mothers. Women with less than a college education, as well as Black or African American women, are predicted to have larger declines in fertility due to COVID-19. This finding is consistent with elevated caseloads of COVID-19 in low-income and minority neighborhoods, as well as with evidence suggesting larger economic impacts of the crisis among such households.

scholarly journals Feeding the disparities: the geography and trends of breastfeeding in the United States

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Garnier ◽  
Ana I. Bento ◽  
Pejman Rohani ◽  
Saad B. Omer ◽  
Shweta Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Breast Milk ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Future Health ◽  
Breastfeeding Rates

AbstractThere is scientific consensus on the importance of breastfeeding for the present and future health of newborns, in high- and low-income settings alike. In the United States, improving breast milk access is a public health priority but analysis of secular trends are largely lacking. Here, we used data from the National Immunization Survey of the CDC, collected between 2003 and 2016, to illustrate the temporal trends and the spatial heterogeneity in breastfeeding. We also considered the effect sizes of two key determinants of breastfeeding rates. We show that, while access to breast milk both at birth and at 6 months old has steadily increased over the past decade, large spatial disparities still remain at the state level. We also find that, since 2009, the proportion of households below the poverty level has become the strongest predictor of breastfeeding rates. We argue that, because variations in breastfeeding rates are associated with socio-economic factors, public health policies advocating for breastfeeding are still needed in particular in underserved communities. This is key to reducing longer term health disparities in the U.S., and more generally in high-income countries.

scholarly journals Relationship Between State-Level Google Online Search Volume and Cancer Incidence in the United States: Retrospective Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. e6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A Phillips ◽  
Allison Barz Leahy ◽  
Yimei Li ◽  
Marilyn M Schapira ◽  
L Charles Bailey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Online Search ◽  
Search Volume

scholarly journals Absolutist Words From Search Volume Data Predict State-Level Suicide Rates in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 788-793
Author(s):  
Jais Adam-Troian ◽  
Thomas Arciszewski
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Suicidal Ideation ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Search Volume

Suicide continues to be a major public health issue, especially in the United States. It is a well-established fact that depression and suicidal ideation are risk factors for suicide. Drawing on recent research that shows that absolutist words (e.g., “completely,” “totally”) constitute linguistic markers of suicidal ideation, we created an online index of absolutist thinking (ATI) using search query data (i.e., Google Trends time series). Mixed-model analyses of age-adjusted suicide rates in the United States from 2004 to 2017 revealed that ATI is linked with suicides, β = 0.22, 95% CI = [0.12, 0.31], p < .001, and predicts suicides within 1 year, β = 0.16, 95% CI = [0.05, 0.28], p = .006, independently of state characteristics and historical trends. It is the first time that a collective measure of absolutist thinking is used to predict real-world suicide outcomes. Therefore, the present study paves the way for novel research avenues in clinical psychological research.

Fiscal Decentralization, Commitment and Regional Inequality: Evidence from State-level Cross-sectional Data for the United States

2009 ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Nobuo Akai ◽  
Masayo Hosio
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Inequality ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Commitment Device

Conventional approaches to fiscal decentralization suggest that decentralization lowers the power of redistribution, but recent theories argue that fiscal decentralization can work as a commitment device. The former effect is argued to cause an increase in inter-county inequality, while the latter suggests a decrease. This article first clarifies the relationship between fiscal decentralization and inter-county inequality by using cross-sectional data for the United States. Our result indicates that the achievement of autonomy by fiscal decentralization in poor (low-income) counties contributes to decreased inter-county inequality, but that this effect is not as large as the dominating adverse effect fiscal decentralization has on rich (highincome) counties.

scholarly journals Know Your Epidemic, Know Your Response: Covid-19 in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Ciancio ◽  
Fabrice Kämpfen ◽  
Iliana V. Kohler ◽  
Daniel Bennett ◽  
Wändi Bruine de Bruin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
College Education ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Socioeconomic Consequences

We document that during the week of March 10–16, the Covid-19 pandemic fundamentally affected the perceptions of U.S. residents about the health risks and socioeconomic consequences entailed by the pandemic. During this week, it seems, “everything changed.” Not only did the pandemic progress rapidly across the United States, but U.S. residents started to realize that the threat was real: increasing Covid-19 caseloads heightened perceptions of infection risks and excess mortality risks, concerns about the economic implications increased substantially, and behavioral responses became widespread as the pandemic expanded rapidly in the U.S. In early to mid-March 2020, average perceptions about the coronavirus infection risks are broadly consistent with projections about the pandemic, while expectations about dying conditional on infection and expectations about Covid-19-related excess mortality during the next months are possibly too pessimistic. However, some aspects of Covid-19 perceptions are disconcerting from the perspective of implementing and sustaining an effective societal response to the pandemic. For instance, the education gradient in expected infection risks entails the possibility of having different perceptions of the reality of the pandemic between people with and without a college education, potentially resulting in two different levels of behavioral and policy-responses across individuals and regions. Unless addressed by effective health communication that reaches individuals across all social strata, some of the misperceptions about Covid-19 epidemic raise concerns about the ability of the United States to implement and sustain the widespread and harsh policies that are required to curtail the pandemic. Our analyses also reveal perceptions of becoming infected with the virus, and dying from Covid-19, were driven upwards by a rapidly increasing national caseload, and perceptions of the economic consequences and the adaptation of social distancing were affected by both national and state-level cases.

A survey of Instagram users with asthma to evaluate the acceptability of a planned clinical trial intervention (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Spitzer ◽  
Brent Heineman ◽  
Marcella Jewell ◽  
Michael Moran ◽  
Peter Lindenauer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Health Care Providers ◽  
College Education ◽  
The United States ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
Healthy Behaviors ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Hispanic White

BACKGROUND Asthma is a chronic lung disease that affects nearly 25 million individuals in the United States. There is a need for more research into the potential for health care providers to leverage existing social media platforms to improve healthy behaviors and support individuals living with chronic health conditions. OBJECTIVE In this study, we assess the willingness of Instagram users with poorly controlled asthma to participate in a pilot study that uses Instagram as a means of providing social and informational support. In addition, we explore the potential for adapting photovoice and digital storytelling to social media. METHODS A survey study of Instagram users living with asthma in the United States, between the ages of 18 to 40. RESULTS Over 3 weeks of recruitment, 457 individuals completed the pre-survey screener; 347 were excluded. Of the 110 people who were eligible and agreed to participate in the study, 82 completed the study survey. Respondents mean age was 21(SD = 5.3). Respondents were 56% female (n=46), 65% (n=53) non-Hispanic white, and 72% (n=59) had at least some college education. The majority of respondents (n = 66, 81%) indicated that they would be willing to participate in the study. CONCLUSIONS Among young-adult Instagram users with asthma there is substantial interest in participating in a study that uses Instagram to connect participants with peers and a health coach in order to share information about self-management of asthma and build social connection.

Can increases in Twitter posts predict increases in cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States? Evidence that social media can inform epidemic surveillance. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruoyan Sun ◽  
Henna Budhwani
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Education Attainment ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Per Capita

BACKGROUND Though public health systems are responding rapidly to the COVID-19 pandemic, outcomes from publicly available, crowd-sourced big data may assist in helping to identify hot spots, prioritize equipment allocation and staffing, while also informing health policy related to “shelter in place” and social distancing recommendations. OBJECTIVE To assess if the rising state-level prevalence of COVID-19 related posts on Twitter (tweets) is predictive of state-level cumulative COVID-19 incidence after controlling for socio-economic characteristics. METHODS We identified extracted COVID-19 related tweets from January 21st to March 7th (2020) across all 50 states (N = 7,427,057). Tweets were combined with state-level characteristics and confirmed COVID-19 cases to determine the association between public commentary and cumulative incidence. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 cases varied significantly across states. Ratio of tweet increase (p=0.03), number of physicians per 1,000 population (p=0.01), education attainment (p=0.006), income per capita (p = 0.002), and percentage of adult population (p=0.003) were positively associated with cumulative incidence. Ratio of tweet increase was significantly associated with the logarithmic of cumulative incidence (p=0.06) with a coefficient of 0.26. CONCLUSIONS An increase in the prevalence of state-level tweets was predictive of an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses, providing evidence that Twitter can be a valuable surveillance tool for public health.

Dissent in the Atlantic World, 1787–1830

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Carté Engel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
African Americans ◽  
First Amendment ◽  
Church And State ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Population ◽  
Simple Fact ◽  
General Role

The very term ‘Dissenter’ became problematic in the United States, following the passing of the First Amendment. The formal separation of Church and state embodied in the First Amendment was followed by the ending of state-level tax support for churches. None of the states established after 1792 had formal religious establishments. Baptists, Congregationalists, Presbyterians, and Methodists accounted for the majority of the American population both at the beginning and end of this period, but this simple fact masks an important compositional shift. While the denominations of Old Dissent declined relatively, Methodism grew quickly, representing a third of the population by 1850. Dissenters thus faced several different challenges. Primary among these were how to understand the idea of ‘denomination’ and also the more general role of institutional religion in a post-establishment society. Concerns about missions, and the positions of women and African Americans are best understood within this context.

The Oxford Handbook of Preservice Music Teacher Education in the United States

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Teacher Education ◽  
Music Education ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Music Teacher ◽  
Music Teacher Education ◽  
Education Faculty ◽  
Song Writing ◽  
Faculty And Administrators

The Oxford Handbook of Preservice Music Teacher Education in the United States aims to work from within the profession of music teacher education to push the boundaries of P-12 music education. In this book, we will provide all of those working in music teacher education—music education faculty and administrators, music researchers, graduate students, department of education faculty and administrators, and state-level certification agencies—with research and promising practices for all areas of traditional preservice music teacher preparation. We define the areas of music teacher education as encompassing the more traditional structures, such as band, jazz band, marching band, orchestra, choir, musical theater, and elementary and secondary general music, as well as less common or newer areas: alternative string ensembles, guitar and song-writing, vernacular and popular music, early childhood music, and adult learners

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