scholarly journals Know Your Epidemic, Know Your Response: Covid-19 in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Ciancio ◽  
Fabrice Kämpfen ◽  
Iliana V. Kohler ◽  
Daniel Bennett ◽  
Wändi Bruine de Bruin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
College Education ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Socioeconomic Consequences

We document that during the week of March 10–16, the Covid-19 pandemic fundamentally affected the perceptions of U.S. residents about the health risks and socioeconomic consequences entailed by the pandemic. During this week, it seems, “everything changed.” Not only did the pandemic progress rapidly across the United States, but U.S. residents started to realize that the threat was real: increasing Covid-19 caseloads heightened perceptions of infection risks and excess mortality risks, concerns about the economic implications increased substantially, and behavioral responses became widespread as the pandemic expanded rapidly in the U.S. In early to mid-March 2020, average perceptions about the coronavirus infection risks are broadly consistent with projections about the pandemic, while expectations about dying conditional on infection and expectations about Covid-19-related excess mortality during the next months are possibly too pessimistic. However, some aspects of Covid-19 perceptions are disconcerting from the perspective of implementing and sustaining an effective societal response to the pandemic. For instance, the education gradient in expected infection risks entails the possibility of having different perceptions of the reality of the pandemic between people with and without a college education, potentially resulting in two different levels of behavioral and policy-responses across individuals and regions. Unless addressed by effective health communication that reaches individuals across all social strata, some of the misperceptions about Covid-19 epidemic raise concerns about the ability of the United States to implement and sustain the widespread and harsh policies that are required to curtail the pandemic. Our analyses also reveal perceptions of becoming infected with the virus, and dying from Covid-19, were driven upwards by a rapidly increasing national caseload, and perceptions of the economic consequences and the adaptation of social distancing were affected by both national and state-level cases.

Peak Car Travel in the United States: Two-Decade-Long Phenomenon at the State Level

2015 ◽  
Vol 2531 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J. Garceau ◽  
Carol Atkinson-Palombo ◽  
Norman Garrick
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
State Level ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Peak Car ◽  
Car Travel

Peak car travel is an international phenomenon that became evident in the United States on a national scale in 2004. Potentially related to peak car travel is the decoupling of economic growth from driving levels. A wealth of research has addressed these phenomena on a national scale in the United States and other developed countries. Yet few studies have been undertaken on other geographic scales, especially the statewide scale in the United States. This study investigated U.S. state-level driving and economic patterns from 1980 to 2011 to understand occurring changes. The research results showed that peak car travel first occurred at the state level as early as 1992 in Washington State, whereas another 10 states peaked in 2000. By 2011, 48 of the 50 states had peaked. The longevity of this phenomenon at the state level provided evidence that peak car travel in the United States was a more permanent phenomenon than previously thought. In addition, the decoupling of economic growth from driving was evident at the state level. In the 1980s, these indicators were positively correlated at the state level. A significant change occurred by the 2000s, however, when any significant connection ceased for most states. For four of the earliest peak car travel states, the relationship between economic growth and driving turned negative. This finding showed that decreases in driving were not associated with negative economic consequences. Rather, in several states, driving reductions were now associated with increased, rather than decreased, economic growth.

scholarly journals Coronavirus in African: Social, Economic and Political Consequences

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 38-56
Author(s):  
I. O. Abramova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Real Chance

The article offers an analysis of the current situation with the coronavirus in Africa. It reveals the specific features of the pandemic and the socio-political and economic consequences thereof. The author concludes that, taking exploiting the pandemic, the United States and its allies are like likely to attempt weakening the PRC’s position in Africa and preventing Russia from building up its influence. The latter, especially, in view of the success of the Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum held in October 2019, in Sochi. However, Washington’s grand plans on the African continent are seriously constrained by the fact that Africans have long asserted themselves as full-capacity subjects in international relations and refuse to be pawns in the intricate games between the United States, China and other players for world leadership. The coronavirus pandemic will undoubtedly change the position of the continent in the new “post-coronavirus” world, but these changes largely depend on how and with whose assistance Africans are to  overcome this serious test.The paper contains the results of online opinion-polling of African experts conducted by the author of the article.The author makes an attempt to explain the “Africa phenomenon” of the coronavirus pandemic, assesses the main risks of the spread of the epidemic and the possibilities of overcoming it. Special attention is paid to new opportunities for the development of the African economy in the “post-coronavirus world”, as well as the actions of the authorities to mitigate its socio-economic consequences.The author arrives to the conclusion that African countries, while less affected by the pandemic than other regions of the world, are not satisfactorily ready to fight it. The pessimistic scenario of the spread of coronavirus infection in Africa cannot be completely ruled out, and the socio-economic consequences of the pandemic can become a very serious test for most countries of the continent. At the same time, a certain redistribution of the balance of power in the region should be expected. The nations that are able in a timely manner to offer Africa significant support in the fight against the pandemic will gain. The Russian Federation has a real chance to strengthen its positions on the continent, cooperation with which may increasingly become a priority for Moscow, given the changing model of world development.

Partisanship, Policy, and Americans’ Evaluations of State-Level COVID-19 Policies Prior to the 2020 Election

2021 ◽  
pp. 106591292110563
Author(s):  
Julie A. VanDusky-Allen ◽  
Stephen M. Utych ◽  
Michael Catalano
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Policy Issue ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Policy Environment ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
Onset Period ◽  
Shed Light

The COVID-19 pandemic was a key policy issue during the 2020 election in the United States. As such, it is important to analyze how voters evaluated government responses to the pandemic. To this end, in this article, we examine factors that influenced Americans’ evaluations of state-level COVID-19 policy responses. We find that during the pandemic onset period, Americans typically rated their state governments’ responses more favorably if their governor was a co-partisan. In contrast, during the re-opening period, we find that Democrats relied on both partisanship and policy to evaluate their state-level responses, while Republicans continued to rely solely on partisanship. We contend that given the complex policy environment surrounding COVID-19, Americans may have not been fully aware of the policies their state governments adopted, so they relied on partisan cues to help them evaluate their state-level policy responses. But by the re-opening period, Americans likely had enough time to better understand state-level policy responses; this allowed Democrats to also evaluate their state-level responses based on policy. These findings shed light on how Americans evaluated COVID-19 responses just prior to the 2020 election.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and the Future of US Fertility: What Can We Learn from Google?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Wilde ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Sophie Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
African American Women ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Keyword Search ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
College Education ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Search Volume

We use data from Google Trends to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on future births in the United States. First, we show that periods of above-normal search volume for Google keywords relating to conception and pregnancy in US states are associated with higher numbers of births in the following months. Excess searches for unemployment keywords have the opposite effect. Second, by employing simple statistical learning techniques, we demonstrate that including information on keyword search volumes in prediction models significantly improves forecast accuracy over a number of cross-validation criteria. Third, we use data on Google searches during the COVID-19 pandemic to predict changes in aggregate fertility rates in the United States at the state level through February 2021. Our analysis suggests that between November 2020 and February 2021, monthly US births will drop sharply by approximately 15%. For context, this would be a 50% larger decline than that following the Great Recession of 2008-2009, and similar in magnitude to the declines following the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919 and the Great Depression. Finally, we find heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic across different types of mothers. Women with less than a college education, as well as Black or African American women, are predicted to have larger declines in fertility due to COVID-19. This finding is consistent with elevated caseloads of COVID-19 in low-income and minority neighborhoods, as well as with evidence suggesting larger economic impacts of the crisis among such households.

scholarly journals Variations in state-level SARS-COV-2 testing recommendations in the United States, March-July 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie R. Perniciaro ◽  
Daniel M. Weinberger
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
General Public ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Fundamental Requirement ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Complete Reporting

AbstractBackgroundTesting recommendations for COVID-19 in the United States varied by state and over time in the spring and summer of 2020.MethodsWe compiled data about COVID-19 testing, cases, and deaths, and excess pneumonia + influenza + COVID-19 deaths to assess relationships between testing recommendations, per capita tests performed, epidemic intensity, and excess mortality during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.ResultsAs of July 2020, 16 states recommended testing asymptomatic members of the general public. The rate of COVID-19 tests reported in each state correlates with more inclusive testing recommendations and with higher epidemic intensity. Higher per capita testing was associated with more complete reporting of COVID-19 deaths, which is a fundamental requirement for analyzing the pandemic.ConclusionsReported deaths due to COVID-19 likely represent an undercount of the true burden of the pandemic. Coordinated, consistent guidelines for COVID-19 testing should be a high priority for state and national health systems.

scholarly journals Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (45) ◽  
pp. 27934-27939 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Polyakova ◽  
Geoffrey Kocks ◽  
Victoria Udalova ◽  
Amy Finkelstein
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Control And Prevention

The economic and mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been widely discussed, but there is limited evidence on their relationship across demographic and geographic groups. We use publicly available monthly data from January 2011 through April 2020 on all-cause death counts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and employment from the Current Population Survey to estimate excess all-cause mortality and employment displacement in April 2020 in the United States. We report results nationally and separately by state and by age group. Nationally, excess all-cause mortality was 2.4 per 10,000 individuals (about 30% higher than reported COVID deaths in April) and employment displacement was 9.9 per 100 individuals. Across age groups 25 y and older, excess mortality was negatively correlated with economic damage; excess mortality was largest among the oldest (individuals 85 y and over: 39.0 per 10,000), while employment displacement was largest among the youngest (individuals 25 to 44 y: 11.6 per 100 individuals). Across states, employment displacement was positively correlated with excess mortality (correlation = 0.29). However, mortality was highly concentrated geographically, with the top two states (New York and New Jersey) each experiencing over 10 excess deaths per 10,000 and accounting for about half of national excess mortality. By contrast, employment displacement was more geographically spread, with the states with the largest point estimates (Nevada and Michigan) each experiencing over 16 percentage points employment displacement but accounting for only 7% of the national displacement. These results suggest that policy responses may differentially affect generations and geographies.

A survey of Instagram users with asthma to evaluate the acceptability of a planned clinical trial intervention (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Spitzer ◽  
Brent Heineman ◽  
Marcella Jewell ◽  
Michael Moran ◽  
Peter Lindenauer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Health Care Providers ◽  
College Education ◽  
The United States ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
Healthy Behaviors ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Hispanic White

BACKGROUND Asthma is a chronic lung disease that affects nearly 25 million individuals in the United States. There is a need for more research into the potential for health care providers to leverage existing social media platforms to improve healthy behaviors and support individuals living with chronic health conditions. OBJECTIVE In this study, we assess the willingness of Instagram users with poorly controlled asthma to participate in a pilot study that uses Instagram as a means of providing social and informational support. In addition, we explore the potential for adapting photovoice and digital storytelling to social media. METHODS A survey study of Instagram users living with asthma in the United States, between the ages of 18 to 40. RESULTS Over 3 weeks of recruitment, 457 individuals completed the pre-survey screener; 347 were excluded. Of the 110 people who were eligible and agreed to participate in the study, 82 completed the study survey. Respondents mean age was 21(SD = 5.3). Respondents were 56% female (n=46), 65% (n=53) non-Hispanic white, and 72% (n=59) had at least some college education. The majority of respondents (n = 66, 81%) indicated that they would be willing to participate in the study. CONCLUSIONS Among young-adult Instagram users with asthma there is substantial interest in participating in a study that uses Instagram to connect participants with peers and a health coach in order to share information about self-management of asthma and build social connection.

Can increases in Twitter posts predict increases in cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States? Evidence that social media can inform epidemic surveillance. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruoyan Sun ◽  
Henna Budhwani
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Education Attainment ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Per Capita

BACKGROUND Though public health systems are responding rapidly to the COVID-19 pandemic, outcomes from publicly available, crowd-sourced big data may assist in helping to identify hot spots, prioritize equipment allocation and staffing, while also informing health policy related to “shelter in place” and social distancing recommendations. OBJECTIVE To assess if the rising state-level prevalence of COVID-19 related posts on Twitter (tweets) is predictive of state-level cumulative COVID-19 incidence after controlling for socio-economic characteristics. METHODS We identified extracted COVID-19 related tweets from January 21st to March 7th (2020) across all 50 states (N = 7,427,057). Tweets were combined with state-level characteristics and confirmed COVID-19 cases to determine the association between public commentary and cumulative incidence. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 cases varied significantly across states. Ratio of tweet increase (p=0.03), number of physicians per 1,000 population (p=0.01), education attainment (p=0.006), income per capita (p = 0.002), and percentage of adult population (p=0.003) were positively associated with cumulative incidence. Ratio of tweet increase was significantly associated with the logarithmic of cumulative incidence (p=0.06) with a coefficient of 0.26. CONCLUSIONS An increase in the prevalence of state-level tweets was predictive of an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses, providing evidence that Twitter can be a valuable surveillance tool for public health.

Dissent in the Atlantic World, 1787–1830

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Carté Engel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
African Americans ◽  
First Amendment ◽  
Church And State ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Population ◽  
Simple Fact ◽  
General Role

The very term ‘Dissenter’ became problematic in the United States, following the passing of the First Amendment. The formal separation of Church and state embodied in the First Amendment was followed by the ending of state-level tax support for churches. None of the states established after 1792 had formal religious establishments. Baptists, Congregationalists, Presbyterians, and Methodists accounted for the majority of the American population both at the beginning and end of this period, but this simple fact masks an important compositional shift. While the denominations of Old Dissent declined relatively, Methodism grew quickly, representing a third of the population by 1850. Dissenters thus faced several different challenges. Primary among these were how to understand the idea of ‘denomination’ and also the more general role of institutional religion in a post-establishment society. Concerns about missions, and the positions of women and African Americans are best understood within this context.

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