scholarly journals Just a big misunderstanding? Bias and Bayesian affective polarization

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Stone

I present a model of affective polarization---growth in hostility over time between two parties---via quasi-Bayesian inference. In the model, two agents repeatedly choose actions. Each choice is based on a balance of concerns for private interests and the social good. More weight is put on private interests when an agent's character is intrinsically more self-serving and when the other agent is believed to be more self-serving. Each agent Bayesian updates about the other's character, and dislikes the other more when she is perceived as more self-serving. I characterize the effects on growth in dislike of three biases: a prior bias against the other agent's character, the false consensus bias, and limited strategic thinking. Prior bias against the other's character remains constant or declines over time, and actions do not diverge. The other two biases cause actions to become more extreme over time and repeatedly be ``worse'' than expected, causing mutual growth in dislike, i.e., affective polarization. The magnitude of dislike can become arbitrarily large---even when both players are arbitrarily ``good'' (unselfish). The results imply that seemingly irrelevant cognitive biases can be an important cause of the devolution of relationships, in politics and beyond, and that subtlety and unawareness of bias can be key factors driving the degree of polarization.

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Emmerling

AbstractWe study the social discount rate, taking into account inequality within generations, that is, across countries or individuals. We show that if inequality decreases over time, the social discount rate should be lower than the one obtained by the standard Ramsey rule under certain but reasonable conditions. Applied to the global discount rate and due to the projected convergence across countries, this implies that the inequality adjusted discount rate should be about twice as high as the standard Ramsey rule predicts. For individual countries on the other hand, where inequality tends to increase over time, the effect goes in the other direction. For the United States for instance, this inequality effect leads to a reduction of the social discount rate by about 0.5 to 1 percentage points. We also present an analytical formula for the social discount rate allowing us to disentangle inequality, risk, and intertemporal fluctuation aversion.


Author(s):  
Luisa Dall'Acqua

Cognitive bias among workers can undermine security work and lead to critical misinterpretations of data. Understanding cognitive biases can improve understanding of how employees make decisions. This work analyzes key factors to better understand, predict, and obviate the detrimental bias symptoms, focusing on groupthink and polythink phenomena occurring in security and business decisions. It intends to provide support for the strategic versus tactical hypothesis in a strategic group decision-making, confirming how even in a clear-cut decision, following a groupthink or polythink dynamic, implementation becomes difficult due to a group dynamics at the other end of the decision-making continuum.


Organization ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 416-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Cederström ◽  
Michael Marinetto

This article explores the ‘liberal communist’, a conceptual and satirical figure originally elaborated in the work of Slavoj Žižek (2008). The liberal communist claims (1) that there is no opposition between capitalism and the social good; (2) that all problems are of a practical nature, and hence best solved by corporate engagement and (3) that hierarchies, authority and centralized bureaucracies should be replaced by dynamic structures, a nomadic lifestyle and a flexible spirit. This analysis of the liberal communist has at least two implications for research on CSR. First, it examines the ideological role of CSR by moving beyond a propaganda view, instead offering an ideological reading that focuses on the ways in which CSR seeks to obliterate any existing contradictions between ‘philanthropic actions’ on the one hand and ‘profit-seeking business activities’ on the other hand. Second, it demonstrates how critique is not necessarily what corporations seek to avoid, but something that they actively engage in.


2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 619-667
Author(s):  
Rusmir Mahmutćehajić

Andrić’s fiction is closely identified with Bosnia and often taken for a faithful reflection of that country’s culture, social relations, and tragic history. Rather than reflecting Bosnian pluralism, however, his oeuvre undermines its very metaphysical underpinnings, in part because his works are so firmly rooted in the European experience of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. From the perspective of a dominant modernity, certain cultures and peoples came to be presented as un-European, Oriental, and essentially foreign. Bosnia, which had always been a religiously plural society, now became one where ideological models excluded its Muslim inhabitants. In line with long-standing European practice, Andrić drew an image of the Bosnian Muslim as Turk and the Turk as Bosnian Muslim, converting the real content of Bosnian society into a plastic material for the ideologues of homogenous societies to use in modelling external and internal enemies that were essentially identical. This process required as its precondition the destruction of that enemy through a process described as the social and cultural liberation of the Christian subject. Over time, this exclusion took on forms now termed genocide. In creating this image, Andrić deployed narrative techniques whose function may fairly be characterized as the aesthetic dissimulation of our ethical responsibilities towards the other and the different. Such elements from his oeuvre have been used in the nationalist ideologies anti-Muslimism serves as a building block. In this paper, certain aspects of the ideological reading and interpretation of Andrić’s oeuvre are presented.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-162
Author(s):  
Ariffah Isna Amalia

Confucianism is a culture taken from the name of a thinker, namely Confucius and is considered the basis of Confucian teachings. The basic view of Confucianism is to invite people to live an orderly, peaceful and happy life and placing the rulers as one of the key factors in achieving the ideals of the country. The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the chronology of Confucianism and its implications for China's geopolitical sustainability. The method used is qualitative with constructivist ideas to create a comprehensive thought allocation on the impact of Confucianism from the perspective of cultural superiority. The results obtained are that, over time, Confucianism has developed into a tool for the Chinese state to carry out geopolitical instruments to achieve geostrategy for the expansion of territorial boundaries. On the one hand, Confucianism can become a superior culture that places the fighting spirit of the people. On the other hand, this flow can become a trigger for war when each region that is to be recruited for China's expansion has a culture and beliefs that are different from their own. Keywords: Confucianism, China, Geopolitics, Geostrategy.


Author(s):  
Olli Seuri ◽  
Pihla Toivanen

This article examines how recent changes in the hybrid media environment have led media actors to define the “how and why” of their practices. We consider the discussion on the differences and similarities surrounding both the legacy media, and newcomers such as countermedia, to be part of journalism’s boundary work: the ongoing, yet temporally fickle, process of marking the boundaries between journalism and non-journalism. We demonstrate how both legacy and countermedia actors drew boundaries through vocabulary, institutional reflection, demarcation practices, and ethos. While the Finnish media underlined its institutional autonomy and dominance by defending the social good of journalism and dubbing countermedia as fake media, countermedia actor MV-lehti drew its own boundaries by ridiculing media professionals, media institutions, and journalists. Our findings illustrate how these actors consistently asserted the flawed ideological foundations of “the other”, with the consequence that boundaries have become fortified, rather than crossed or blurred.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 604-609
Author(s):  
Nina Stanescu

As for the attitude towards abortion, over time, it has fluctuated from one era to another. Thus, the ancient societies of Greece and Rome were tolerant of abortion, and with the Romans abortion could be performed at any time during pregnancy. One of the aspects that received special attention was the right of women to have a say in their own reproduction, namely the right of women to choose whether or not to keep a pregnancy, Immoral in terms of of the Church, outlawed by the legislation of some states, the right to abortion has had a sinuous evolution in the social scene of many states. This issue has many political, moral and social connotations, being politically regulated differently by different states. The extremes are represented on the one hand by China, which pursues a policy of limiting population growth, including through a pro-abortion policy and on the other hand by Islamic states, in which abortion for therapeutic purposes and on-demand abortion are prohibited. In Europe, most states have legalized abortion, but at the same time apply policies to limit it, by promoting family planning and contraceptive methods.


2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Maynes

Teaching critical thinking skill is a central pedagogical aim in many courses. These skills, it is hoped, will be both portable (applicable in a wide range of contexts) and durable (not forgotten quickly). Yet, both of these virtues are challenged by pervasive and potent cognitive biases, such as motivated reasoning, false consensus bias and hindsight bias. In this paper, I argue that a focus on the development of metacognitive skill shows promise as a means to inculcate debiasing habits in students. Such habits will help students become more critical reasoners. I close with suggestions for implementing this strategy.


2007 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 1275-1310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pearl A. Dykstra ◽  
Gunhild O. Hagestad

This article provides the rationale for doing research on childlessness and parenthood in late life. Childless older adults have been rendered invisible in the social scientific literature. A central goal of this issue is to make them visible and to expose unstated assumptions about normal adult life. Parenthood emerges as a key organizer of the life course and a major factor in social integration. Because the childless tend to be conceptualized as “the other,” focusing on them teaches lessons about the dangers of dichotomous thinking, that is, overlooking diversity and assuming deficiency. Studying older adults without children reveals the necessity of considering life pathways over time and of putting lives in a historical context.


2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (19) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Guillermo José Mañón Garibay

In this note I argue that the decriminalization (or authorization) of marijuana use should be considered with an eye to the evil it avoids instead of to the good it seeks. The debate about the decriminalization/permission of the consumption of marijuana in Mexico is set within the context of the individual freedom and the damage to health produced by its consumption. Other related issues result from this approach, such as individual responsibility and the duty of the State to seek the social good. How can one justify the decriminalization of marijuana considering the duty of the state? How can the harmful craving for it be understood given the alleged natural inclination towards personal wellbeing (axiom of Western culture)? The response has to do with the exercise of power by the State, in the definition of what is healthy and harmful, normal and pathological, because the concepts “healthy” and “harmful” have ideological uses (in the sense of the 18th Brumaire of Louis Napoleon). Secondly, we cannot ignore the discomfort caused by social life, due to the demands on public duty at the expense of private interests. This results in a tension between the individual and society that is only mitigated by tolerance for drug abuse, alcohol or permission of “red zones,” because only in this way are social conflicts dissipated.


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