Defended or defunded? Local and state policy outcomes of the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests
This article provides novel evidence on the local policy outcomes of the largest protest movement in U.S. history: the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests. Building on a hand-compiled dataset containing information on the 300 largest cities in the United States, data on state legislation, and comprehensive protest data, we assess whether two core political demands of the movement were realized. We find that protest did not affect city police budgets but did lead to the adoptions of state police reform. We do not find compelling evidence that protest affected agenda setting at the state-level. Although inconsequential in local politics overall, protest proved counterproductive in cities with large white population shares and large Republican population shares. We argue that local and state politics offer different political opportunities for protests to succeed. In state politics, protest creates electoral incentives to make political concessions. In local politics, a lack of political threat and the perception of protest as inconvenient create political incentives to resist policy change.