scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Risk and Return in Indian Agriculture

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco J M Costa ◽  
Fabien Forge ◽  
Jason Garred ◽  
João Paulo Pessoa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
District Level ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Risk And Return ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Indian Agriculture ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

We investigate the extent to which climate change will result in insurable and uninsurable losses for farmers in India. Shifts in the distributions of temperature and precipitation may increase the volatility of farmers' yields, leading to rising but insurable risk, and/or reduce mean yields and thus cause permanent reductions in the returns to farming. We use a multi-run climate model to predict the future distribution of yields at the district level for sixteen major crops. For the average district, we project a sharp decline in mean agricultural revenue, but relatively small shifts in volatility. This is because weather draws resulting in extremely low agricultural revenue -- what had once been 1-in-100-year events -- are predicted to become the norm by the end of the century, implying substantial uninsurable losses from the changing climate.

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spring Maximum

AbstractThe impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Material Degradation Criteria in Heritage over Iran: Regional Climate Model Evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Hamed Hedayatnia ◽  
Marijke Steeman ◽  
Nathan Van Den Bossche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Salt Crystallization ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Impact

Understanding how climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the preservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like salt crystallization cycles is of crucial importance when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage in Iran to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on basic parameters plus variables more critical to building damage like salt crystallization index needs to be analyzed. Regional climate modelling projections can be used to asses the impact of climate change effects on heritage. The output of two different regional climate models, the ALARO-0 model (Ghent University-RMI, Belgium) and the REMO model (HZG-GERICS, Germany), is analyzed to find out which model is more adapted to the region. So the focus of this research is mainly on the evaluation to determine the reliability of both models over the region. For model validation, a comparison between model data and observations was performed in 4 different climate zones for 30 years to find out how reliable these models are in the field of building pathology.

Application of an economy-climate model to assess the impact of climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 957-965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Wenjie Dong ◽  
Guolin Feng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Ofori-Boateng ◽  
Baba Insah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The study aimed at examining the current and future impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa. Design/methodology/approach – A translog production function based on crop yield response framework was used. A panel model was estimated using data drawn from cocoa-producing countries in West Africa. An in-sample simulation was used to determine the predictive power of the model. In addition, an out-sample simulation revealed the effect of future trends of temperature and precipitation on cocoa output. Findings – Temperature and precipitation play a considerable role in cocoa production in West Africa. It was established that extreme temperature adversely affected cocoa output in the sub-region. Furthermore, increasing temperature and declining precipitation trends will reduce cocoa output in the future. Practical implications – An important implication of this study is the recognition that lagging effects are the determinants of cocoa output and not coincident effects. This finds support from the agronomic point of view considering the gestation period of the cocoa crop. Originality/value – Although several studies have been carried out in this area, this study modeled and estimated the interacting effects of factors that influence cocoa production. This is closer to reality, as climatic factors and agricultural inputs combine to yield output.

scholarly journals SWAT BASED ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN THENPENNAI SUB-BASIN OF SOUTH INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 557-562
Author(s):  
K. Nivedita Priyadarshini ◽  
S. A. Rahaman ◽  
S. Nithesh Nirmal ◽  
R. Jegankumar ◽  
P. Masilamani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil And Water

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change impacts on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex. The key significant parameters responsible for balancing the watershed ecosystems are temperature and rainfall. Though these parameters are uncertain, they play a prime role in the projections of dimensional climate change studies. The impact of climate change is more dependent on temperature and precipitation which contributes at a larger magnitude for characterising global warming issues. This paper aims to forecast the variations of temperature and precipitation during the period of 2020&amp;ndash;2050 for the northern part of Thenpennar sub basin. This study is modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) &amp;ndash; a scale model developed to predict the impact of changes that occurs in land, soil and water over a period of time. This study is validated using the base period from 1980&amp;ndash;2000 which shows the distribution of rainfall and temperature among 38 watersheds. The results from this study show that there is a decrease in the rainfall for a maximum of about 20% in the month of December during the predicted period of 2020 and 2050. This study assesses the possible adverse impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of Thenpennai sub-basin. This kind of predictions will help the government agencies, rulers and decision makers in policy making and implementing the adaptation strategies for the changing climatic conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Diversification or specialisation? Farmers' cropping strategy and economic performance under climate change in China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingze Wu ◽  
Yueji Zhu ◽  
Qi Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Technical Efficiency ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Farmers' adaptation strategies in agricultural production are required to minimise the negative impact of climate change on a nation's food production in developing countries. Based on the panel data of the provincial level in China from 2000 to 2017, this study aims to analyse the changing climate over recent years and farmers' adaptation strategy in terms of cropping in agricultural production. Design/methodology/approach This study uses Simpson's diversity index (SDI) to measure the degree of crop diversity planted by farmers and evaluate the influence of climate change on farmers' cropping strategy using the fixed-effect model. Further, the authors estimate the impact of farmers' cropping strategy on their economic performances in two aspects including yields and technical efficiency of crops. Findings The empirical results show that the overall climate appears a warming trend. Different from farmers in some other countries, Chinese farmers tend to adopt a more specialised cropping strategy which can significantly improve the technical efficiency and yields of crops in agriculture. In addition, as a moderating role, the specialised cropping can help farmers to alleviate the negative impact of climate change on technical efficiency of their crops. Originality/value First, previous studies showed that the changing climate influenced farmers' adaptation strategies, while most studies focussed on multiple adaptation strategies from the farm-level perspective rather than cropping strategy from the nation-level perspective. Second, the present study investigates how the cropping strategy affects the economic performance (in terms of the technical efficiency and crop yields) of agricultural production. Third, the stochastic frontier analysis method is used to estimate the technical efficiency. Fourth, this study explores the moderating effect between farmers' cropping strategy and technical efficiency by introducing an interaction item of SDI and accumulated temperature.

Impact of climate change on the future of tourism areas in the Canary Islands

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judit Carrillo ◽  
Albano González ◽  
Juan C. Pérez ◽  
Francisco J. Expósito ◽  
Juan P. Díaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Canary Islands ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Tourism is an essential sector of the economy of the Canary Islands. Tourism Climate Index (TCI) and Holiday Climate Index (HCI) are good indicators of environmental conditions for leisure activities. Regional climate model (RCM) has been addressed to analyze the impact of climate change on the indices of tourist areas. The initial and boundary conditions for future scenarios are prescribed through three CMIP5 models (GFDL, IPSL and MIROC)&amp;#160; surface and lateral boundary conditions within the Meteorological Research and Forecast (WRF), with a high resolution, 3x3 km. Two time periods (2030 &amp;#8211; 2059, and 2070-2099) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) are considered. Tourism indicators are projected to improve significantly during the winter and shoulder seasons, but will worsen in the summer months, including October, in the southeast, which is where hotels are currently located.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture Sector in India and Action Plans

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raja K. Baisya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Indian Agriculture ◽  
If Current ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Support Research

Climate change is now a reality. Agriculture in India is likely to suffer losses due to heat, erratic weather and decreased availability of irrigation. Adaptation strategies can help minimize the impact. But that will come at a cost although not still accurately measurable and is likely to be high. This also requires new policy support, research and investment. However, cost of inaction will be still higher. Carbon dioxide level is now about 400 ppm which is likely to increase to about 450 to 600 ppm during 2050 and by 2100 it is likely to go up anything above 500 ppm to 1000 ppm if current situation is allowed to continue. This paper attempts to analyse the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture in terms of decreased productivity to be seen in relation to increase in population. And to counter that impact what are the measures being initiated.

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