scholarly journals Estimation of Fertility due to Contraception in Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-150
Author(s):  
Bijaya Mani Devkota
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Unmet Need ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Background Characteristics ◽  
Unintended Pregnancies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

  Fertility has an important role for demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) which is one component measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate demographic parameters. Some of these techniques are based on stable population theory and others are regression equations between the dependent variables, the TFR and the independent variables, the socio economic as well as demographic variables. The unwanted or unintended pregnancies can be avoided through the use of contraceptives; it becomes very important to estimate the births averted or pregnancies stopped by use of contraception. Though there is increase in the use of contraception, still many couples do not use contraception in spite of the fact that they require to use contraception. To satisfy this unmet need of contraception is one of the policy targets of national population policy for population stabilization. In this study, 12862 married females between 15-49 years of age, whose marital duration is more than 5 years, have been taken to study the distribution on different background characteristics and their behavior. Firstly, a regression study was done to know the impact on contraceptive use and further multivariate study has been carried out to know the effect of background characteristics and behavior on absence of birth five years jointly at different sub division. This method is based on the relationship between the Total fertility rate (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR).By using this modified estimate of TFR, birth averted for different area. The variables are CPR that about 71.4 percent variation in TFR can be explained by the first regression approach. The second is based on the relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and Additive combination of CPR and proportion of currently married females having open birth interval (NPV) explained about 82percent of the variation in TFR. The findings revealed that the TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR. Estimates of births averted and the percent change in births in the absence of contraception, based on the two methods are fairly consistent.

scholarly journals Estimation of total fertility rate and birth averted due to contraception: regression approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 105-112
Author(s):  
Bijaya Mani Devkota
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Predictor Variable ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Background Characteristics ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Stable Population Theory ◽  
The Relationship

Fertility plays an important role in any demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) is one of the basic measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate the demographic parameters with incomplete data. Some of these techniques are based on utilizing the data from stable population theory while others are based on the regression technique in which the parameters are estimated through regression equations between the dependent variable which is the TFR and the independent variables which is the socio economic well as demographic variables. The first method is based on the relationship between the Total fertility rate (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rate for all women. By using this modified estimate of TFR, demographic analysis can easily calculate the birth averted for different regions as well as states also. In fact, provide reasonable estimates of births averted due to contraceptive use by national populations. The variables are CPR that about 51.2 percent variation in TFR can be explained by the first regression approach. The second is based on the relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and Additive combination of CPR and proportion of currently married females having open birth interval. Using new predictor variable, the improved model explained about 55percent of the variation in TFR. The findings reveal that the values of TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR without involving much computational complexities at different background characteristics. Estimates of births averted and the percent change in births in the absence of contraception, based on the two methods, are fairly consistent.

scholarly journals Shifting dynamics: Changes in the relationship between total fertility rate and contraceptive prevalence rate in Jordan between 2012 and 2017

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Kristin Bietsch ◽  
Ali Arbaji ◽  
Jennifer Mason ◽  
Rebecca Rosenberg ◽  
Malak Al Ouri
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Prevalence Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Unmet Need ◽  
Family Health ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Modern Contraceptive ◽  
Contraceptive Prevalence Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Prevalence

Background: Between the two most recent Population and Family Health Surveys, Jordan saw a dramatic decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 3.5 to 2.7 in 5.5 years.  Over the same period, modern contraceptive use also declined, from 61.2% to 51.8% among married women.  This decrease in both TFR and the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) diverges from the typical relationship seen between these two factors whereby historically as CPR increases, TFR decreases.  This paper explores this unique pattern using multiple methodologies.  Methods: First, we validate the survey data using nationally collected data on fertility and contraceptive distribution.  Second, we look to changes that have historically influenced changes in CPR and TFR, including changes in ideal family size and wanted fertility rates. Third, we explore proximate determinants and other influences on fertility and changes in contraception, examining the changes in the method mix and unmet need; marriage patterns, including the demographics of the married population, spousal separation, and time since last sex; postpartum insusceptibility; infecundity, both primary and secondary; and abortion, to see if any have shifted significantly enough to allow for fertility to decline with less contraceptive use. Results: We find that the decline in fertility in Jordan was driven by a reduction in mistimed or unwanted pregnancies and there was a significant increase in the share of reproductive aged women who are infecund. We also concluded that the changes in fertility and contraceptive use are driven by changes in Jordanian nationals, not by the growing Syrian refugee population. Conclusions: Jordan is not the only country to be experiencing a shift in the typical relationship between CPR and TFR.  Results can inform both future approaches for family planning programs and our expectations regarding what kind of change our family planning investments might buy.

scholarly journals Shifting dynamics: Changes in the relationship between total fertility rate and contraceptive prevalence rate in Jordan between 2012 and 2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Kristin Bietsch ◽  
Ali Arbaji ◽  
Jennifer Mason ◽  
Rebecca Rosenberg ◽  
Malak Al Ouri
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Prevalence Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Unmet Need ◽  
Family Health ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Modern Contraceptive ◽  
Contraceptive Prevalence Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Prevalence

Background: Between the two most recent Population and Family Health Surveys, Jordan saw a dramatic decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 3.5 to 2.7 in 5.5 years.  Over the same period, modern contraceptive use also declined, from 61.2% to 51.8% among married women.  This decrease in both TFR and the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) diverges from the typical relationship seen between these two factors whereby historically as CPR increases, TFR decreases.  This paper explores this unique pattern using multiple methodologies.  Methods: First, we validate the survey data using nationally collected data on fertility and contraceptive distribution.  Second, we look to changes that have historically influenced changes in CPR and TFR, including changes in ideal family size and wanted fertility rates. Third, we explore proximate determinants and other influences on fertility and changes in contraception, examining the changes in the method mix and unmet need; marriage patterns, including the demographics of the married population, spousal separation, and time since last sex; postpartum insusceptibility; infecundity, both primary and secondary; and abortion, to see if any have shifted significantly enough to allow for fertility to decline with less contraceptive use. Results: We find that the decline in fertility in Jordan was driven by a reduction in mistimed or unwanted pregnancies and there was a significant increase in the share of reproductive aged women who are infecund. We also concluded that the changes in fertility and contraceptive use are driven by changes in Jordanian nationals, not by the growing Syrian refugee population. Conclusions: Jordan is not the only country to be experiencing a shift in the typical relationship between CPR and TFR.  Results can inform both future approaches for family planning programs and our expectations regarding what kind of change our family planning investments might buy.

scholarly journals Pronatalist Policies and Fertility in Russia: Estimating Tempo and Quantum Effects

2021 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asiya Validova
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Quantum Effect ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Quantum Effects ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Decomposition Approach ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, and analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population policy interventions in transition economies are inconclusive, while the most common argument states that policies based on material incentives are insufficient to significantly raise the real fertility in a population. The study aims to offer a better insight to the following research question: was Russian demographic policy effective in terms of raising the fertility level in the country or did it merely change the timing of births? The objective of the paper is to measure two effects of the pronatalist policy in Russia: tempo effect and quantum effect. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, I employ the decomposition method to separate tempo and quantum effects in the observed total fertility rate, and I estimate their relative weight in observed fertility changes. The analysis of period fertility indicators confirmed the prevalence of a tempo effect in observed total fertility rate change, but also revealed a quantum effect of the policy measures, although this was much smaller. Policy impact varied by birth order. For second parity, the tempo effect played a more critical role, while for third parity the quantum effect was more important. Another decomposition approach employed to measure the contributions of various factors in the increase of the number of births during the post-reform period showed the quantum effect which was driven by second and third order births. The study provides empirical evidence of the impact of policies on fertility behaviour, expands the existing analysis of pronatalist measures taken in Russia, and contributes to our understanding of the role of tempo and quantum effects in the recent fertility change in Russia.

THE MODEL FOR MANAGING INVESTMENTS IN THE MOSCOW ENVIRONMENT BASED ON A POWER REGRESSION EQUATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (7) ◽  
pp. 91-99
Author(s):  
E. V. KOSTYRIN ◽  
◽  
M. S. SINODSKAYA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Solid Waste ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Pair Correlation ◽  
Approximation Error ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Average Approximation ◽  
Average Approximation Error

The article analyzes the impact of certain factors on the volume of investments in the environment. Regression equations describing the relationship between the volume of investment in the environment and each of the influencing factors are constructed, the coefficients of the Pearson pair correlation between the dependent variable and the influencing factors, as well as pairwise between the influencing factors, are calculated. The average approximation error for each regression equation is determined. A correlation matrix is constructed and a conclusion is made. The developed econometric model is implemented in the program of separate collection of municipal solid waste (MSW) in Moscow. The efficiency of the model of investment management in the environment is evaluated on the example of the growth of planned investments in the activities of companies specializing in the export and processing of solid waste.

LOW FERTILITY RATE AND CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOR OF HOUSEHOLDS IN TAIWAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (01) ◽  
pp. 175-190
Author(s):  
JR-TSUNG HUANG ◽  
JIUN-NAN PAN ◽  
MING-LEI CHANG ◽  
SHIH-YI YOU
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
County Level ◽  
Health Care Education ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
Consumption Behavior ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Since the economic consequences of a low fertility rate, such as a change in consumption patterns, might affect the path of economic growth, this study investigates how the relationship between the low fertility rate and consumption behavior in Taiwan has changed over time. Using county-level panel data from 1995 to 2014 to examine the impact of the low fertility rate on the consumption behavior of households in Taiwan, the major finding of this study is that a low fertility rate will change the behavior and the composition of consumption. A low fertility rate will increase the share of the total consumption expenditure in a household’s disposable income, in particular, in relation to the consumption categories of food, health care, education, and transportation and communication, but will decrease the share of expenditure on clothing in the household’s disposable income.

scholarly journals Fertility rates and the postponement of first births: a descriptive study with Finnish population data

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e026336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahra Roustaei ◽  
Sari Räisänen ◽  
Mika Gissler ◽  
Seppo Heinonen
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Age At First Birth ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
First Birth ◽  
Educational Levels ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

ObjectivesWe described the trend of fertility rates, age-specific fertility rates and associated factors in Finland over a 30-year period.DesignA descriptive population-based register study.SettingFertility data, including age at first birth, childlessness and educational levels were gathered from the Finnish Medical Birth Register and Statistics Finland.ParticipantsAll 1 792 792 live births from 1987 to 2016 in Finland.Main outcome measuresCompleted fertility rate, total fertility rate and age-specific fertility rate.ResultsThe total fertility rate of Finnish women fluctuated substantially from 1987 to 2016. Since 2010, the total fertility rate has gradually declined and reached the lowest during the study period in 2016: 1.57 children per woman. The mean maternal age at first birth rose by 2.5 years from 26.5 years in 1987 to 29 years in 2016. The proportion of childless women at the age of 50 years increased from 13.6% in 1989 to 19.6% in 2016. By considering the impact of postponement and childlessness, the effect on total fertility rates was between −0.01 and −0.12 points. Since 1987, the distribution of birth has declined for women under the age of 29 and increased for women aged 30 or more. However, start of childbearing after the age of 30 years was related to the completed fertility rate of less than two children per woman. The difference in completed fertility rate across educational groups was small.ConclusionsPostponement of first births was followed by decline in completed fertility rate. Increasing rate of childlessness, besides the mean age at first birth, was an important determinant for declined fertility rates, but the relation between women’s educational levels and the completed fertility rate was relatively weak.

The Effectiveness of Social Marketing in Reduction of Teenage Pregnancies: A Review of Studies in Developed Countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Simiyu Wakhisi ◽  
Pascale Allotey ◽  
Namrata Dhillon ◽  
Daniel D. Reidpath
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Behavior ◽  
Social Marketing ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Unwanted Sex ◽  
Minimal Impact ◽  
Unintended Pregnancies ◽  
Sexual Behavior Change ◽  
Marketing Principles ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of a social marketing approach in reduction of unintended teenage pregnancies. We identified studies undertaken between 1990 and 2008 through electronic searches of databases, manual searches of bibliographies, and consultations with experts. Twelve studies that met the inclusion criteria were selected for further analysis. Results showed variation in intervention effects across specified outcomes (reduction in unintended pregnancies, delayed sexual initiation, contraceptive use at last intercourse, knowledge of contraception and reproductive health, and self-efficacy to refuse unwanted sex). Of the 12 studies, 9 reported significant effects on at least one of the outcomes. Long-term interventions were generally more effective than short-term ones for most outcomes. The impact on male participants' sexual behavior was minimal in most studies. Overall, social marketing appears to be an effective approach in reducing teenage pregnancies and influencing sexual behavior change, but the evidence is limited to particular outcomes and context. There is, therefore, need for more primary studies specifically designed around social marketing principles for more robust evaluations. The minimal impact on male participants' behavior also warrants further investigation.

scholarly journals Quality of Service and its Impact in Achieving Competitive Advantage

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-227
Author(s):  
Adnan Shamkhi Jabir ◽  
Kamil Shkaier Al.watifi ◽  
Abbas kh. Aljanabi
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Service ◽  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Simple Correlation ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to determine the impact of the (QoS) variable on the competitive advantage variable. To achieve this, the study relied on the quality of service in terms of reliability, responsiveness, flexibility, safety and connectivity and its competitive advantage in terms of cost, quality, flexibility, and delivery. The study tried to answer the questions of the problem, the most important of which is the quality of service in the organization in question? What is the level of competitive advantage offered by the organization in question? Is there a relationship between quality of service and competitive advantage in the organization in question? The study was conducted in the General Company for the distribution of petroleum products / Central Euphrates Distribution Authority / Babel Branch. The questionnaire was used to obtain the necessary data, as well as personal interviews. The opinions of 150 workers were analyzed in addition to 35 customers. The simple correlation coefficient was used to measure the correlation between the variables and the (T) test to determine the significance of the simple and multiple regression equations and also to use the analysis of the (Anova). The simulation method was used to generate data (views) of all the resolution sections that were pre-designed according to the five-dimensional Likert scale for the sample size (n=150). The study sought to achieve a set of objectives, the most important of which is to identify the relationship between quality of service, competitive advantage and the impact of quality of service on the competitive advantage, to make some recommendations that can contribute to improving the status of the organization in question. The study concluded with a number of conclusions, the most important of which is the organization's interest in responding quickly to the customer's needs when requesting service, noting the importance of the organization to provide most of the needs of the citizens of fuel on demand despite the difficult conditions of the country. The most important recommendations included the organization's interest in quickly responding to customers' requests, so it is important for them to maintain and develop these gains.

scholarly journals The relationship between demographic indicators of public health and environmental factors in Russian cities

2021 ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Elena V. Budilova ◽  
◽  
Michail B. Lagutin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Significant Heterogeneity ◽  
Aging Index ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Significance Levels ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Birth Death

Results. Comparison of groups of cities with different levels of air pollution in terms of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio revealed significant differences between the groups in 2014 (significance levels are 0.018 and 0.025, respectively) and their absence in 2015 and 2016. At the same time, in groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, an increase in the median values of the total fertility rates and the birth-death rates is noted. Comparison of groups of cities according to the aging index revealed a significant heterogeneity of groups with different levels of air pollution in 2014, 2015, 2016: significance levels are equal to 0.0007; 0.005; 0.002 respectively. In urban groups, with an increase in air pollution, the median value of the aging index decreases. Conclusion. An analysis of the relationship between demographic indicators of population health and the level of air pollution showed that the most sensitive to the level of air pollution are indicators such as the total fertility rate, the birth-death ratio and the aging index. In groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, the median values of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio increase, while the median values of the aging index decrease. The results obtained are consistent with the provisions of the theory of life history evolution. This research was performed according to the Development program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University “The future of the planet and global environmental change”.

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