scholarly journals The relationship between demographic indicators of public health and environmental factors in Russian cities

Author(s):  
Elena V. Budilova ◽  
◽  
Michail B. Lagutin ◽  

Results. Comparison of groups of cities with different levels of air pollution in terms of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio revealed significant differences between the groups in 2014 (significance levels are 0.018 and 0.025, respectively) and their absence in 2015 and 2016. At the same time, in groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, an increase in the median values of the total fertility rates and the birth-death rates is noted. Comparison of groups of cities according to the aging index revealed a significant heterogeneity of groups with different levels of air pollution in 2014, 2015, 2016: significance levels are equal to 0.0007; 0.005; 0.002 respectively. In urban groups, with an increase in air pollution, the median value of the aging index decreases. Conclusion. An analysis of the relationship between demographic indicators of population health and the level of air pollution showed that the most sensitive to the level of air pollution are indicators such as the total fertility rate, the birth-death ratio and the aging index. In groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, the median values of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio increase, while the median values of the aging index decrease. The results obtained are consistent with the provisions of the theory of life history evolution. This research was performed according to the Development program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University “The future of the planet and global environmental change”.

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-150
Author(s):  
Bijaya Mani Devkota

  Fertility has an important role for demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) which is one component measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate demographic parameters. Some of these techniques are based on stable population theory and others are regression equations between the dependent variables, the TFR and the independent variables, the socio economic as well as demographic variables. The unwanted or unintended pregnancies can be avoided through the use of contraceptives; it becomes very important to estimate the births averted or pregnancies stopped by use of contraception. Though there is increase in the use of contraception, still many couples do not use contraception in spite of the fact that they require to use contraception. To satisfy this unmet need of contraception is one of the policy targets of national population policy for population stabilization. In this study, 12862 married females between 15-49 years of age, whose marital duration is more than 5 years, have been taken to study the distribution on different background characteristics and their behavior. Firstly, a regression study was done to know the impact on contraceptive use and further multivariate study has been carried out to know the effect of background characteristics and behavior on absence of birth five years jointly at different sub division. This method is based on the relationship between the Total fertility rate (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR).By using this modified estimate of TFR, birth averted for different area. The variables are CPR that about 71.4 percent variation in TFR can be explained by the first regression approach. The second is based on the relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and Additive combination of CPR and proportion of currently married females having open birth interval (NPV) explained about 82percent of the variation in TFR. The findings revealed that the TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR. Estimates of births averted and the percent change in births in the absence of contraception, based on the two methods are fairly consistent.


2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Luy

Demographic period indicators like the total fertility rate or life expectancy are well known since more than a century and until recently there were only minor discussions about their usefulness. This changed with a series of publications by Bongaarts and Feeney (BF) in which they claimed that these indicators are inappropriate for describing current demographic conditions when the average age at childbearing respective death is changing. Therefore, BF proposed alternative tempo-adjusted indicators for such situations which can be very useful for demographic analysis. The still existing scepticism against the BF approach and the general rejection of mortality tempo adjustment in particular have their origin in a set of misunderstandings and misinterpretations of tempo-adjusted indicators. This paper systematically describes the basic idea of tempo effects, how they can distort the commonly used conventional period indicators and how the proposed methods approximate the idea of tempo adjustment, illustrated with empirical data for West Germany. We also summarize the critiques against tempo adjustment and try to put the tempo approach in the right perspective. Finally, the paper strives for providing a better understanding when tempo-adjusted measures should be used as alternative or in addition to the commonly used conventional demographic indicators.


2021 ◽  
pp. 3-20
Author(s):  
O. G. ROGOZHIN

The influence of the macroeconomic factor on the long-term trends of reproduction the population of Ukraine since independence is considered. Based on the author’s concept of “demoeconomic niche” the results of calculation of two options for estimating the “current” (per year) economic potential of population changes in Ukraine on the criteria of conditionally autonomous consumption of population and the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) were analyzed. The potential for population decline according to the first criterion is considered as a pessimistic (maximum) estimate (–30 million in 2019), according to the second - as an optimistic estimate (–2 million in 2019). The aim of the study was to perform a statistical analysis of the relationship between demographic and economic indicators of population reproduction in Ukraine and their relationship with certain options for assessing the economic potential of population change to determine their greater or lesser relevance to demographic and economic realities. Novelty: the assessment of the economic potential of population change is performed within the economic and demographic methodology developed and maintained by the author (based on the macroeconomic concept of “demoeconomic niche”). Research methods: to study the statistical relationship between indicators used methods of correlation and regression analysis (linear models), as well as a comparative analysis of the results of calculations with the actual dynamics of demographic and economic indicators. Calculations were made by means of PPP STATISTICA 8.0. A statistical analysis of the relationship between demographic and economic indicators and their relationship with the studied options for assessing the economic potential of Ukraine population change was performed to determine compliance with demographic and economic realities. All-time series of indicators (30 and 22 years) subjected to statistical analysis are translated into a single form of annual increments to ensure comparability, as a percentage of the value of the initial year of analysis. The direct linear relationship of GDP changes with the dynamics of the total fertility rate and average life expectancy at birth was recorded, and close feedback - with the dynamics of the migration balance. It is noticed that changes in GDP and the total fertility rate for the whole and rural population have cophase quasi cyclic fluctuations with a 3-4 year lag of reaction delay. It is shown that the assessment of the economic potential of population change by the criterion of conditionally autonomous consumption of population is closely statistically dependent on macroeconomic indicators and economic dynamics. The assessment based on the criterion of the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) depends more closely on the indicators that directly reflect the well-being of households. It turned out that the adequacy of the assessment based on the criterion of conditionally autonomous consumption of population gradually decreases over time due to the peculiarities of the calculation algorithm, growing inaccuracy can only be neglected at intervals of +/-5 years from the base year. The adequacy of the assessment according to the criterion of the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) depends on the correspondence to the real cost of life values for each year of the observation period, these values need to be clarified.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 105-112
Author(s):  
Bijaya Mani Devkota

Fertility plays an important role in any demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) is one of the basic measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate the demographic parameters with incomplete data. Some of these techniques are based on utilizing the data from stable population theory while others are based on the regression technique in which the parameters are estimated through regression equations between the dependent variable which is the TFR and the independent variables which is the socio economic well as demographic variables. The first method is based on the relationship between the Total fertility rate (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rate for all women. By using this modified estimate of TFR, demographic analysis can easily calculate the birth averted for different regions as well as states also. In fact, provide reasonable estimates of births averted due to contraceptive use by national populations. The variables are CPR that about 51.2 percent variation in TFR can be explained by the first regression approach. The second is based on the relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and Additive combination of CPR and proportion of currently married females having open birth interval. Using new predictor variable, the improved model explained about 55percent of the variation in TFR. The findings reveal that the values of TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR without involving much computational complexities at different background characteristics. Estimates of births averted and the percent change in births in the absence of contraception, based on the two methods, are fairly consistent.


Equilibrium ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Dominiak ◽  
Ewa Lechman ◽  
Anna Okonowicz

Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Noticeably, over last decades, economic growth has led to significant falls in total fertility rates in many countries. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of ‘fertility rebound’ emerged (Goldstein, 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2011; Day, 2012), which supports the hypothesis that reversal trends in total fertility rates are mainly attributed to economic growth. The paper unveils the relationship between total fertility rate changes and economic growth in 18 selected countries with fertility rebound observed, over the period 1970–2011, and detects the GDP-threshold at which the fertility rebound emerged. To report on the relationship we deploy longitudinal data analysis assuming non-linearity between examined variables. The data applied are exclusively derived from World Development Indicators 2013. Our main findings support the hypothesis on U-shaped relationship between the total fertility rate and economic growth in analyzed countries in 1970-2011. Along with the previous, we project the minimum level of GDP per capita (GDP-threshold) when the fertility rebound takes place.


2016 ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Mariana Giaretto ◽  
Victoria Naffa

ResumenEn este trabajo analizamos las relaciones entre tomas de tierras y Estado, en elAlto Valle de Río Negro en Argentina. En un contexto general de especulacióninmobiliaria, por la que se encarecen los precios de alquileres y terrenos, y depolíticas de vivienda selectivas y acotadas, los sectores populares acceden aun espacio en la ciudad mediante tomas de tierras. Frente a estos conflictos,el Estado, en sus diferentes niveles y poderes, despliega una forma deintervención basada en la criminalización de las luchas por tierra y vivienda.Al mismo tiempo, el poder ejecutivo nacional crea la Secretaría de Acceso alHábitat, para posibilitar la intervención política orientada a la regularizaciónde los asentamientos. Sin embargo, esta intervención tiende a reinscribir laproblemática habitacional en el campo político, para reducirla a un conflicto“entre partes”, eludiendo la responsabilidad estatal.Desde un enfoque metodológico cualitativo, seleccionamos como referenteempírico el caso del asentamiento de Villa Obrera en Fiske, Menuco (Gral.Roca), y las técnicas de recolección de datos se basan en fuentes secundarias,como expedientes judiciales y normativa, y en fuentes primarias como son losrelatos de los protagonistas mediante entrevistas individuales y colectivas.Palabras clave: tomas de tierras, Estado, criminalización de los conflictos.Conflicts caused by land occupation and modesof State intervention: analysis of an experience ofAlto Valle in Río Negro (Argentina)AbstractThis paper analyzes the relationship between State and land occupation,at Alto Valle in Río Negro, Argentina. In a general context of real estatespeculation, where rents and land prices are expensive, and a policy ofselective and limited housing, popular sectors can have access to a spacein the city through land occupation. In front of these conflicts, the Statein its different levels and powers, displays a form of intervention basedon the criminalization of struggles for land and housing. At the sametime, the national executive creates the Secretariat of Access to Habitat,oriented to allow political intervention for the regularization of settlements.However, this intervention tends to re-register the housing problems in thepolitical arena, reducing it to a conflict “between parties” and eluding theresponsibility of the State.From a qualitative methodological approach, we selected as empirical referencethe case of the settlement of Villa Obrera in Fiske, Menuco (GeneralRoca). The techniques of data collection are based on secondary sources, suchas policy and legal records, and primary sources as the stories of protagoniststhrough individual and collective interviews.Keywords: land occupation, State, criminalization of conflicts.Conflitos sobre ocupações de terras e modos deintervenção do estado: análise de uma experiênciado Alto Valle do Rio Preto (Argentina)ResumoEste trabalho analisa as relações entre a posse de terra e o Estado, no AltoValle do Rio Preto, na Argentina. Num contexto geral da especulaçãoimobiliária, por qual se encarecem os preços do aluguel e das terras, e depolíticas de habitação seletivas e limitadas, os setores populares acedem aum espaço na cidade através de ocupações de terras. Frente a estes conflitos,o Estado, em seus diferentes níveis e poderes, desenvolve uma forma deintervenção com base na criminalização das lutas pela terra e vivenda. Aomesmo tempo, o poder executivo nacional cria a Secretaria de Acesso àHabitat para possibilitar à intervenção política orientada a regularização dosassentamentos. No entanto, esta intervenção tende a registrar os problemasde habitação no campo político, para reduzi-la a um conflito “entre aspartes”, iludindo a responsabilidade do Estado.A partir de uma abordagem metodológica qualitativa, foi selecionado comoreferência empírica o caso do Assentamento de Villa Obrera em Fiske,Menuco (Gral. Roca), e as técnicas de recolecção de dados são baseados emfontes secundárias, como expedientes judiciais e normativos, e em fontes primárias como são as histórias dos protagonistas através de entrevistasindividuais e coletivas.Palavras-chave: tomada de terras, Estado, criminalização dos conflitos.


1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document