The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Scenario

scholarly journals From scenario-based seismic hazard to scenario-based landslide hazard: fast-forwarding to the future via statistical simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luigi Lombardo ◽  
Hakan Tanyas
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Landslide Hazard ◽  
Northridge Earthquake ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Temporal Dimension ◽  
Earthquake Scenario ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Ground Motion Scenarios

AbstractGround motion scenarios exists for most of the seismically active areas around the globe. They essentially correspond to shaking level maps at given earthquake return times which are used as reference for the likely areas under threat from future ground displacements. Being landslides in seismically actively regions closely controlled by the ground motion, one would expect that landslide susceptibility maps should change as the ground motion patterns change in space and time. However, so far, statistically-based landslide susceptibility assessments have primarily been used as time-invariant.In other words, the vast majority of the statistical models does not include the temporal effect of the main trigger in future landslide scenarios. In this work, we present an approach aimed at filling this gap, bridging current practices in the seismological community to those in the geomorphological and statistical ones. More specifically, we select an earthquake-induced landslide inventory corresponding to the 1994 Northridge earthquake and build a Bayesian Generalized Additive Model of the binomial family, featuring common morphometric and thematic covariates as well as the Peak Ground Acceleration generated by the Northridge earthquake. Once each model component has been estimated, we have run 1000 simulations for each of the 217 possible ground motion scenarios for the study area. From each batch of 1000 simulations, we have estimated the mean and 95% Credible Interval to represent the mean susceptibility pattern under a specific earthquake scenario, together with its uncertainty level. Because each earthquake scenario has a specific return time, our simulations allow to incorporate the temporal dimension into any susceptibility model, therefore driving the results toward the definition of landslide hazard. Ultimately, we also share our results in vector format – a .mif file that can be easily converted into a common shapefile –. There, we report the mean (and uncertainty) susceptibility of each 1000 simulation batch for each of the 217 scenarios.

scholarly journals Seismic Damage Semantics on Post-Earthquake LOD3 Building Models Generated by UAS

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 345
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Chaidas ◽  
George Tataris ◽  
Nikolaos Soulakellis
Keyword(s):  
Point Clouds ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
Seismic Damage ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Earthquake Scenario ◽  
Geography Markup Language ◽  
3D Point Clouds ◽  
Building Models ◽  
Building Walls ◽  
Oblique Images

In a post-earthquake scenario, the semantic enrichment of 3D building models with seismic damage is crucial from the perspective of disaster management. This paper aims to present the methodology and the results for the Level of Detail 3 (LOD3) building modelling (after an earthquake) with the enrichment of the semantics of the seismic damage based on the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). The study area is the Vrisa traditional settlement on the island of Lesvos, Greece, which was affected by a devastating earthquake of Mw = 6.3 on 12 June 2017. The applied methodology consists of the following steps: (a) unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) nadir and oblique images are acquired and photogrammetrically processed for 3D point cloud generation, (b) 3D building models are created based on 3D point clouds and (c) 3D building models are transformed into a LOD3 City Geography Markup Language (CityGML) standard with enriched semantics of the related seismic damage of every part of the building (walls, roof, etc.). The results show that in following this methodology, CityGML LOD3 models can be generated and enriched with buildings’ seismic damage. These models can assist in the decision-making process during the recovery phase of a settlement as well as be the basis for its monitoring over time. Finally, these models can contribute to the estimation of the reconstruction cost of the buildings.

scholarly journals Influence of Earthquakes on Landslide Susceptibility in a Seismic Prone Catchment in Central Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 3768
Author(s):  
Fengqing Li ◽  
Isakbek Torgoev ◽  
Damir Zaredinov ◽  
Marina Li ◽  
Bekhzod Talipov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Limit Equilibrium ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Earthquake Scenario ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Local Decision

Central Asia is one of the most challenged places, prone to suffering from various natural hazards, where seismically triggered landslides have caused severe secondary losses. Research on this problem is especially important in the cross-border Mailuu-Suu catchment in Kyrgyzstan, since it is burdened by radioactive legacy sites and frequently affected by earthquakes and landslides. To identify the landslide-prone areas and to quantify the volume of landslide (VOL), Scoops3D was selected to evaluate the slope stability throughout a digital landscape in the Mailuu-Suu catchment. By performing the limit equilibrium analysis, both of landslide susceptibility index (LSI) and VOL were estimated under five earthquake scenarios. The results show that the upstream areas were more seismically vulnerable than the downstream areas. The susceptibility level rose significantly with the increase in earthquake strength, whereas the VOL was significantly higher under the extreme earthquake scenario than under the other four scenarios. After splitting the environmental variables into sub-classes, the spatial variations of LSI and VOL became more clear: the LSI reduced with the increase in elevation, slope, annual precipitation, and distances to faults, roads, and streams, whereas the highest VOL was observed in the areas with moderate elevations, high precipitation, grasslands, and mosaic vegetation. The relative importance analysis indicated that the explanatory power reduced with the increase in earthquake level and it was significant higher for LSI than for VOL. Among nine environmental variables, the distance to faults, annual precipitation, slope, and elevation were identified as important triggers of landslides. By a simultaneous assessment of both LSI and VOL and the identification of important triggers, the proposed modelling approaches can support local decision-makers and householders to identify landslide-prone areas, further design proper landslide hazard and risk management plans and, consequently, contribute to the resolution of transboundary pollution conflicts.

Interactive Approach for Earthquake Scenario Development and Hazards Resource Estimation

2018 ◽  
pp. 121-139
Author(s):  
B. S. Chaudhary ◽  
Ram Kumar Singh ◽  
Nupur Bhatia ◽  
Ravi Mishra ◽  
Md Ataullah Raza Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Resource Estimation ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Interactive Approach ◽  
Earthquake Scenario

scholarly journals Application of the Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI 2007) and the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) to the Kalamata (SW Peloponnese, Greece) earthquake (Ms=6.2, September 13, 1986) and correlation with neotectonic structures and active faults

2014 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis G. Fountoulis ◽  
Spyridon D. Mavroulis
Keyword(s):  
Structural Damage ◽  
Active Fault ◽  
Main Shock ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Fault Zones ◽  
Earthquake Sequence ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Earthquake Scenario

On September 13, 1986, a shallow earthquake (Ms=6.2) struck the city of Kalamata and the surrounding areas (SW Peloponnese, Greece) resulting in 20 fatalities, over 300 injuries, extensive structural damage and many earthquake environmental effects (EEE). The main shock was followed by several aftershocks, the strongest of which occurred two days later (Ms=5.4). The EEE induced by the 1986 Kalamata earthquake sequence include ground subsidence, seismic faults, seismic fractures, rockfalls and hydrological anomalies. The maximum ESI 2007 intensity for the main shock has been evaluated as IX<sub>ESI 2007</sub>, strongly related to the active fault zones and the reactivated faults observed in the area as well as to the intense morphology of the activated Dimiova-Perivolakia graben, which is a 2nd order neotectonic structure located in the SE margin of the Kalamata-Kyparissia mega-graben and bounded by active fault zones. The major structural damage of the main shock was selective and limited to villages founded on the activated Dimiova-Perivolakia graben (IX<sub>EMS-98</sub>) and to the Kalamata city (IX<sub>EMS-98</sub>) and its eastern suburbs (IX<sub>EMS-98</sub>) located at the crossing of the prolongation of two major active fault zones of the affected area. On the contrary, damage of this size was not observed in the surrounding neotectonic structures, which were not activated during this earthquake sequence. It is concluded that both intensity scales fit in with the neotectonic regime of the area. The ESI 2007 scale complemented the EMS-98 seismic intensities and provided a completed picture of the strength and the effects of the September 13, 1986, Kalamata earthquake on the natural and the manmade environment. Moreover, it contributed to a better picture of the earthquake scenario and represents a useful and reliable tool for seismic hazard assessment.

scholarly journals POST-DISASTER DAMAGE ASSESSMENT THROUGH COHERENT CHANGE DETECTION ON SAR IMAGERY

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-3 ◽  
pp. 431-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Guida ◽  
P. Boccardo ◽  
I. Donevski ◽  
L. Lo Schiavo ◽  
M. E. Molinari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Change Detection ◽  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Earthquake Scenario ◽  
Central Italy Earthquake ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Coherent Change Detection ◽  
Sar Imagery ◽  
Bad Weather

Damage assessment is a fundamental step to support emergency response and recovery activities in a post-earthquake scenario. In recent years, UAVs and satellite optical imagery was applied to assess major structural damages before technicians could reach the areas affected by the earthquake. However, bad weather conditions may harm the quality of these optical assessments, thus limiting the practical applicability of these techniques. In this paper, the application of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery is investigated and a novel approach to SAR-based damage assessment is presented. Coherent Change Detection (CCD) algorithms on multiple interferometrically pre-processed SAR images of the area affected by the seismic event are exploited to automatically detect potential damages to buildings and other physical structures. As a case study, the 2016 Central Italy earthquake involving the cities of Amatrice and Accumoli was selected. The main contribution of the research outlined above is the integration of a complex process, requiring the coordination of a variety of methods and tools, into a unitary framework, which allows end-to-end application of the approach from SAR data pre-processing to result visualization in a Geographic Information System (GIS). A prototype of this pipeline was implemented, and the outcomes of this methodology were validated through an extended comparison with traditional damage assessment maps, created through photo-interpretation of high resolution aerial imagery. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is able to perform damage detection with a good level of accuracy, as most of the detected points of change are concentrated around highly damaged buildings.

scholarly journals Basin Resonance and Seismic Hazard for Jakarta, Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasius Cipta ◽  
Phil Cummins ◽  
Masyhur Irsyam ◽  
Sri Hidayati
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Response Spectrum ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Computational Domain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Earthquake Scenario ◽  
Design Response Spectrum ◽  
Intraslab Earthquake

We use earthquake ground motion modelling via Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) and numerical simulation of seismic waves to consider the effects of site amplification and basin resonance in Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia. While spectral accelerations at short periods are sensitive to near-surface conditions (i.e., Vs30), our results suggest that, for basins as deep as Jakarta&rsquo;s, available GMPEs cannot be relied upon to accurately estimate the effect of basin depth on ground motions at long periods (&gt;1 s). Amplitudes at such long periods are influenced by entrapment of seismic waves in the basin, resulting in longer duration of strong ground motion, and interference between incoming and reflected waves as well as focusing at basin edges may amplify seismic waves. In order to simulate such phenomena in detail, a basin model derived from a previous study is used as a computational domain for deterministic earthquake scenario modeling in a 2-dimensional cross-section. A Mw 9.0 megathrust, a Mw 6.5 crustal thrust and a Mw 7.0 instraslab earthquake are chosen as scenario events that pose credible threats to Jakarta, and the interactions with the basin of seismic waves generated by these events were simulated. The highest PGV amplifications are recorded at sites near the middle of the basin and near its southern edge, with maximum amplifications of PGV in the horizontal component of 200% for the crustal, 600% for the megathrust and 335% for the deep intraslab earthquake scenario, respectively. We find that the levels of ground motion response spectral acceleration fall below those of the 2012 Indonesian building Codes's design response spectrum for short periods (&lt; 1 s), but closely approach or may even exceed these levels for longer periods.

Vibration-Based SHM of Ordinary Buildings: Detection and Quantification of Structural Damage

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessio Pierdicca ◽  
Francesco Clementi ◽  
Diletta Maracci ◽  
Daniela Isidori ◽  
Stefano Lenci
Keyword(s):  
Structural Damage ◽  
Damage Identification ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Natural Aging ◽  
Real Structure ◽  
Industrial Building ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Earthquake Scenario ◽  
Structural Health

One of the most important issues in civil and in mechanical engineering is the detection of structural damages, which are defined as changes of material properties, of boundary conditions and of system connectivity, which adversely affect the system’s performances. The damage identification process generally requires establishing existence, localization, type and intensity of the damage. During its service life, a structure, besides his natural aging, can be subjected to earthquakes. These events may have a deep impact on building safety and a continuous monitoring of the structure health conditions, through Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) techniques, is necessary in many cases. Within this a background, the purpose of this work is to propose an integrated novel approach for the diagnosis of structures after a seismic event. The proposed monitoring system is based on recording the accelerations of the real structure during a seismic input, and the reintroduction of them into a numerical model, suitably tuned, in order to outline a possible post-earthquake scenario. This approach provides an estimation of the health of the building and of its residual life, and to detect and quantify the damage, some of the crucial aspects of SHM. Actually, we also get both online and self-diagnosis of the structural health. The technique is applied to a real structure, an industrial building liable of some seismic vulnerabilities. It it did not undergo an earthquake, so we have not recordered accelerations, and get them from a different numerical models subjected to the ground acceleration of a realistic earthquake.

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