scholarly journals Using Mathematical and Statistical Model to Forecast the Path of Infection by Covid-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarek Omara ◽  
Khaled A. Harby
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Weibull Model ◽  
Time Curve ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Nonlinear Growth ◽  
First Case ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Saudi Arabia, like any other part of the earthly globe, has been exposed to the Covid-19 pandemic. The first case appeared on March 3, 2020, followed by an increase in the number of infections until it reached thousands with the numbers on the rise. Therefore, adopting clear strategies to deal with the pandemic according to specific data on its size is necessary. In this study, the time series of the number of infections and deaths were analyzed to study the behavior of the pandemic over time. The cumulative curve of the phenomenon was analyzed to show the extent of the pandemic's decline or spread. On the other hand, the time curve of the number of cases of the pandemic was fitted based on a set of mathematical and statistical models, which were divided into three sections [nonlinear growth model, Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model, regression model] to attain the best possible fitting of the relationship curve. The results show that the Weibull model and Polynomial model at (n = 4) are the best models for fitting the relationship at short run and the SEIR model gives better relationship fitting at long run. In conclusion, there is a tendency for the disease to decline during the short period, while expecting other waves of the epidemic that will recede in the long term with the emergence of a suitable vaccine.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-147
Author(s):  
Albdulkarim K. Alhowaish ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Independent Effects ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Relationship

This study empirically investigates the relationship between construction flow and economic growth for Saudi Arabia during the 1970¡V2011 period. Integration and cointegration techniques are applied to investigate the relationship between the construction sector and economic growth. Given the fact that Saudi Arabia is an oil-rich country, oil revenue has also been included in the model as a conditioning variable. The findings reveal that there is strong causality that runs from economic growth and oil revenues to the construction industry with feedback effects that only run from construction to economic growth (i.e. bi-directional relationship). However, the construction industry does not Granger-cause oil revenues in the long-run (i.e. uni-directional relationship). The findings also reveal that there exists no causal relationship between economic growth and oil revenues in the long-run. Economic growth and oil revenue are "independent¨ effects on construction growths in the long-run. However, oil revenues have significant effects on economic growth just in the short-run. Therefore, oil revenues play a critical role in economic growth in the short-run and therefore, the growth of the construction industry in the long-run. The accuracy of the estimated results is validated by performing several diagnostic tests.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ari Mulianta Ginting
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Administration System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
The Relationship

Ekspor merupakan salah satu faktor terjadinya peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, sejalan dengan hipotesis export-led growth (ELG). Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode kuartal I 2001 sampai dengan kuartal IV 2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis deskriptif dalam menggambarkan perkembangan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta ekspor dan analisis kuantitatif metode Error Correction Model (ECM) dalam menganalisis efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dari ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada periode penelitian, data yang ada menunjukkan bahwa ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sama-sama mengalami peningkatan. Hasil regresi ECM menunjukkan bahwa ekspor memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, yang mendukung hipotesis bahwa ELG berlaku untuk Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, maka untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperlukan peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia. Peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai cara, salah satunya adalah dengan perbaikan sistem administrasi ekspor, peningkatan riset dan pengembangan produk Indonesia, peningkatan sarana dan prasarana infrastruktur, stabilitas nilai tukar dan perluasan pasar non tradisional, termasuk perbaikan struktur ekspor komoditas. Export is one of the factors behind the economic growth which is in line with the export-led growth hypotesis (ELG). This research analyzes the relationship between economic growth and export of Indonesia during first quarter of 2001 until fourth quarter of 2015. It employs descriptive analysis to describe export movement and economic growth during the study period and ECM model to analyze the long run and the short run effects of export on the economic growth. The available information indicated that, during the study period, both export and economic growth showed similar increasing trends. The result of the ECM model revealed that export had a positive and statistically significant relationship with the economic growth, supporting the hypotesis of ELG in Indonesia. Hence, to accelerate economic growth, efforts are required to boost the export performance in Indonesia. The Export performance can be increased by several way, such as improving the export administration system, increasing the research and development of Indonesian products, improving the facilities and infrastructure, exchange rate stability and the non-tradisional markets expansion, and including improvement of the export commodity structure.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

Impact of Environmental Tax on Comparative Advantage of Food and Food Products: A Study of G20 Countries in Light of Environmentally Sensitive Goods

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110352
Author(s):  
Alisha Mahajan ◽  
Kakali Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
The Relationship

Many countries are under constant fear that environmental policies might negatively influence the international competitiveness of polluting industries. In this study, we aim to evaluate the relationship and impact of the environmental tax on comparative advantage of trade in food and food products industry, considered to be one of the highly environmentally sensitive industries. This study also investigates, whether this relationship differs among countries covered in G20, with the help of correlation analysis. We select panel autoregressive distributed lag approach for this study as it can analyse long-run as well as short-run association even when the variables are stationary at different orders of integration. Using panel data from G20 countries over the period of 21 years that is from 1994 to 2015, it is concluded that when we allow environmental taxes to interact with the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of G20 nations, the overall impact of the environmental tax on the RCA is negative in the long period. It is therefore suggested that countries should follow Porter hypothesis to stimulate innovations resulting from strict environmental regulations that affect the environment in least possible manner. JEL Codes: C01, C23, C33, F18, O57, Q5

Determinants of Workers’ Remittances in Nepal: An Empirical Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-140
Author(s):  
Naw Raj Bhatt ◽  
Melina Kharel
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Poverty Eradication ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
External Sector ◽  
The Relationship

Background: Remittance has a crucial role in external sector stability, poverty eradication, and social as well as the human development of developing countries like Nepal. The determinants of remittance are widely discussed in the existing works of literature from altruism and portfolio approaches. Since the share of remittance in the current account, current transfer income, and forex reserve is significantly high, the study of major determinants of increasing remittance inflow is necessary. In this regard, this paper examines the relationship between remittance inflow, exchange rate, and workers outflow in Nepal. Objective: The main objective of this study was to examine the effect of the exchange rate and workers outflow on the remittance inflow of Nepal. Methods: This study employs the ARDL approach to co-integration to examine the relationship between remittance inflow as an endogenous variable and exchange rate and workers outflow as exogenous variables. Results: The coefficients of the exchange rate and workers outflow are significant and positive in long run as well as in the short-run whereas coefficients of the first lag value of workers outflow and remittance inflow itself are significant but negative. Conclusion: The significant and positive coefficient of exchange rate indicates that depreciation of Nepalese currency with US dollar (or rise in the exchange rate) rises the remittance inflow. Further, the remittance inflow also increases with an increase in workers outflow. The effect of the exchange rate on remittance is greater than that of workers outflow in both the long-run and short-run.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Growth in Montenegro: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Özer ◽  
Jovana Žugić ◽  
Sonja Tomaš-Miskin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study, we investigate the relationship between current account deficits and growth in Montenegro by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to co-integration for the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the last quarter of 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when growth is the dependent variable. The results also confirm a bidirectional long run and short run causal relationship between current account deficits and growth. The short run results mostly indicate a negative relationship between changes in the current account deficit GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate. This means that any increase of the value of independent variable (current account deficit GDP ratio) will result in decrease of the rate of GDP growth and vice versa. The long-run effect of the current account deficit to GDP ratio on GDP growth is positive. The constant (β0) is positive but also the (β1), meaning that with the increase of CAD GDP ratio of 1 measuring unit, the GDP growth rate would grow by 0,5459. This positive and tight correlation could be explained by overlapping structure of the constituents of CAD and the drivers of GDP growth (such as tourism, energy sector, agriculture etc.). The results offer new perspectives and insights for new policy aiming for sustainable economic growth of Montenegro.

scholarly journals Research On Monetary Neutrality: Evidence From Exchange Rate And Trade Balance Of G-7 Countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Doh-Khul Kim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Monetary Neutrality ◽  
Nominal Shocks

<p class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">According to a recent paper by Fisher and Huh (200</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">2</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">), in contrast to a long-run neutrality hypothesis, nominal shocks have long-run effects on a country&rsquo;s real exchange rate</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"> and trade balance.</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> However employing </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">a </span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">similar method (VAR) with identical restrictions (</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">long-run neutrality and </span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">short-run recursive</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"> hypotheses</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">), </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">this paper </span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">show</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">s</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> that the effects on the real exchange rate are much shorter</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"> in this G-7 country study</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> than what </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">Fisher and Huh (2002) contend.</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> Further, the trade balance improves for a short period of time, from which </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">it can</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> conclude there is a shorter existence of the depreciation effect in response to </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">expansionary</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> monetary shocks, which supports the long-run neutrality hypothesis</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"> in an open macroeconomic framework</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span></span></p>

scholarly journals Investigating in the J-curve phenomenon in Tunisia- ARDL bound test approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5(J)) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Elham Shubaita ◽  
Muhammad Mar’i ◽  
Mehdi Seraj
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ardl Bound Test

This paper investigates the relationship between trade balance, real exchange rates, and incomes in Tunisia by adopting the autoregressive distributed model (ARDL) by using data over the period of 1980 to 2018. We also used the bound test cointegration between variables at a 10% significant level. Our findings show that the Tunisia economy does not match the Marshall-Lerner condition in the long run, that provides an accurate description of the particular situation for which a country currency devaluation or depreciation its currency under both fixed or floating regime is predicted to enhance the trade balance of a country, which means there is no j-curve phenomenon in the long run, which tries to differentiate between the change of short-run and long-run effects in the change of exchange rate on the trade balance. Our findings match the Marshall-Lerner condition in the short run and can confirm the existing j-curve in the case of Tunisia.

scholarly journals A note on imperfect hedging: a method for testing stability of the hedge ratio

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-50
Author(s):  
Michal Černý ◽  
Jan Pelikán
Keyword(s):  
Recent Change ◽  
Hedging Strategy ◽  
Hedge Ratio ◽  
Risk Manager ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
On Line ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Open Position

Companies producing, processing and consuming commodities in the production process often hedge their commodity expositions using derivative strategies based on different, highly correlated underlying commodities. Once the open position in a commodity is hedged using a derivative position with another underlying commodity, the appropriate hedge ratio must be determined in order the hedge relationship be as effective as possible. However, it is questionable whether the hedge ratio determined at the inception of the risk management strategy remains stable over the whole period for which the hedging strategy exists. Usually it is assumed that in the short run, the relationship (say, correlation) between the two commodities remains stable, while in the long run it may vary. We propose a method, based on statistical theory of stability, for on-line detection whether market movements of prices of the commodities involved in the hedge relationship indicate that the hedge ratio may have been subject to a recent change. The change in the hedge ratio decreases the effectiveness of the original hedge relationship and creates a new open position. The method proposed should inform the risk manager that it could be reasonable to adjust the derivative strategy in a way reflecting the market conditions after the change in the hedge ratio.

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