scholarly journals Forecasting Regional Indicators Based on the Quarterly Projection Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 50-75
Author(s):  
Alyona Nelyubina ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Regional Heterogeneity ◽  
Projection Model ◽  
Convenient Tool ◽  
Keynesian Model

The paper presents a semi-structural model of a regional economy based on the standard version of the neo-Keynesian model in gaps. The main feature of this tool is its ability to predict regional indicators and model the regional heterogeneity of the national economy. In our model, Russia is divided into two macro-regions: the Central Federal District and the rest of Russia in aggregate. These regions are modelled separately but are interrelated. The benefit of this approach is that it allows us to analyse how shocks in one region are passed along to others, how the regions react to general shocks and what the appropriate monetary policy response should be. The model represents a simple and convenient tool for building macroeconomically consistent forecasts and generating recommendations in the area of monetary policy based on regional specifics.

scholarly journals RESPON KEBIJAKAN MONETER YANG OPTIMAL DI INDONESIA: The State-Contingent Rule?

2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Solikin M. Juhro
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Cointegrating Vector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Variable ◽  
Short Run

By developing a long-run macro structural model, The Structural Cointegrating Vector Autoregression (VAR), the optimality principle of monetary policy response in Indonesia is formulated. It accommodates not only long-run policy response and short-run dynamic errorcorrection mechanism, but also specific shocks emerged due to structural changes in the economy. In that context, the generated policy response basically reflects the optimal response of a “state-contingent rule”, different from common simple policy rules, such as Taylor rule and McCallum rule. This study captures several important aspects related to the implementation of “state-contingent rule” as an optimal monetary policy in Indonesia, namely: (i) the superiority of interest rate as a policy variable, or an operational target, against monetary base, (ii) the identification of monetary policy lag which is estimated averagely one-and-a half year, and (iii) the sub optimality of central bank monetary policy response, attributed by an over tight or loose policy response.JEL Classification: C32, E52Keywords: Kebijakan Moneter di Indonesia, Respon Kebijakan Moneter, Structural Cointegration Vector Autoregression(VAR).

Resource Constituent of Russian Regional Economy

2007 ◽  
pp. 116-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kimelman ◽  
S. Andyushin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
Resource Model ◽  
The Social ◽  
Regional Economic Policy ◽  
Far Eastern

The article basing upon estimation of the social and economic potential of Russian Federation subjects shows that the resource model of economic development is suitable for nearly half of them. The advantages of this model are described using the example of the Far Eastern Federal District subjects that could be the proof of the necessity of "resource correction" of regional economic policy in Russia.

MODEL OF THE NORTH CAUCASIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT FOOD MARKETS SPATIAL ORGANIZATION

1970 ◽  
pp. 4-9
Author(s):  
А. Kh. Dikinov ◽  
А. А. Eshugaova ◽  
М. М. Abdurakhmanova ◽  
М. А. Sadueva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Spatial Organization ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Research Evaluation ◽  
Federal District ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Regional Food ◽  
The North ◽  
Food Market

The most progressive and promising model of spatial organization of food markets of the North Caucasus Russian Theatre is a cluster model. In the proposed methodology of the process approach to develop a structural model of agro-food cluster in the NORTH is cluster analysis. The regional food market as a single system, which combines production, marketing and consumption of foods with a specific hierarchy, is characterized by different relationships and proportions between its components and is an important an indicator of a country's economic development, achieving food security. Disclosure of potential in a market system, its effective use, taking into account regional particularities and specificities of the economy, improvement of the spatial organization and improving the efficiency of such a complex system as the regional food market is impossible without knowledge of its essence, principles of formation and operation. In this connection there was a need to develop modern methods of research, evaluation, analysis, improvement of structure and functional organisation of the regional food markets as an important factor for the socio-economic development the country. The novelty of the research lies in the fact that the clustering of agribusiness implemented taking into account the peculiarities of regional AIC on the basis of strategic management zones: industrial, conventional and organic. To determine the effectiveness of the cluster algorithm of its evaluation, which is based on the criteria of usefulness and survival in the conditions of the cluster in the region, which are defined using evaluation scales and weights the main factors utility and survival in the cluster.

scholarly journals On the Limits of Macroprudential Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Kolasa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Collateral Constraints ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Additional Stabilization ◽  
The Interest Rate

AbstractThis paper studies how macroprudential policy tools applied to the housing market can complement the interest rate-based monetary policy in achieving one additional stabilization objective, defined as keeping either economic activity or credit at some exogenous (and possibly time-varying) levels. We show analytically in a canonical New Keynesian model with housing and collateral constraints that using the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, tax on credit or tax on property as additional policy instruments does not resolve the inflation-output volatility tradeoff. Perfect targeting of inflation and credit with monetary and macroprudential policy is possible only if the role of housing debt in the economy is sufficiently small. The identified limits to the considered policies are related to their predominantly intertemporal impact on decisions made by financially constrained agents, making them poor complements to monetary policy, which also operates at an intertemporal margin. These limits can be overcome if macroprudential policy is instead designed such that it sufficiently redistributes income between savers and borrowers.

scholarly journals Information Use and the Condorcet Jury Theorem

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1098
Author(s):  
Keiichi Morimoto
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Information Use ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Strategic Complementarity ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Jury Theorem

Using a simple model of a coordination game, this paper explores how the information use of individuals affects an optimal committee size. Although enlarging the committee promotes information aggregation, it also stimulates the members’ coordination motive and distorts their voting behavior through higher-order beliefs. On the determination of a finite optimal committee size, the direction and degree of strategic interactions matter. When the strategic complementarity among members is strong, a finite optimal committee size exists. In contrast, it does not exist under strategic substitution. This mechanism is applied to the design of monetary policy committees in a New Keynesian model in which a committee conducts monetary policy under imperfect information.

Natural disasters and monetary policy: evidence from an augmented Taylor rule

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
James E. Payne
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the short-run monetary policy response to five different types of natural disasters (geophysical, meteorological, hydrological, climatological and biological) with respect to developed and developing countries, respectively. Design/methodology/approach An augmented Taylor rule monetary policy model is estimated using systems generalized method of moments panel estimation over the period 2000–2018 for a panel of 40 developed and 77 developing countries, respectively. Findings In the case of developed countries, the greatest nominal interest rate response originates from geophysical, meteorological, hydrological and climatological disasters, whereas for developing countries the nominal interest rate response is the greatest for geophysical and meteorological disasters. For both developed and developing countries, the results suggest the monetary authorities will pursue expansionary monetary policies in the short-run to lower nominal interest rates; however, the magnitude of the monetary response varies across the type of natural disaster. Originality/value First, unlike previous studies, which focused on a specific type of natural disaster, this study examines whether the short-run monetary policy response differs across the type of natural disaster. Second, in relation to previous studies, the analysis encompasses a much larger panel data set to include 117 countries differentiated between developed and developing countries.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document