Model of a Regional Business Cycle Indicatorforthe Province of Warmia and Mazury

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-271
Author(s):  
Rafał Warżała

Business cycle analysis at the national level does not have to be consistent with the economic situation of its individual regions. Diversity in the structure and development dynamics of the individual regions isalso reflected in the range of sensitivity to business cycle changes. Anevaluation was conducted of the suitability of multi-dimensional comparative analysis methods to evaluate the business cycle in the economy on a regional basis based on the example of Warmia and Mazury.The economy of Warmia and Mazury and its sensitivity to macroeconomic disturbances was the subject of the analysis. The business cycle studies by region conducted in Poland are based on so-called "business cycle tests" which are characterised by a high level of subjectivism. They are based on the results of questionnaire-based surveys conducted among entrepreneurs and, as a consequence, it seems justified to build a business cycle indicator for the province of Warmia and Mazury based on "hard" economic data. The proposal of the business cycle indicator for the region of Warmia and Mazury is based on the key economic dimensions for the region. The currently applied methods for elimination of irregular fluctuations and location of turning points were used for designing it. The outcome of the above measures offers the possibility to present the value of the current and prognostic business cycle indicator for Warmia and Mazury with monthly frequency. 

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.


2018 ◽  
Vol 226 ◽  
pp. 02020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evgeniya P. Klyuchka ◽  
Viktor V. Radin ◽  
Leonid M. Groshev ◽  
Sergey I. Kambulov

The main problems connected with modelling of complex technological systems of greenhouse production are considered. The methodological approaches used at present on the basis of classical comparative analysis with subsequent heuristic conclusions are analysed. Based on the study of this issue, it was concluded that the development and implementation of innovative technologies that affect the individual subsystems of the greenhouse complex do not provide the optimal solution to improve the energy efficiency of the system as a whole. There is a need to create a new synergistic technological paradigm for abandoning costly full-scale models and developing models with a high level of adequacy of real technological processes.


2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 334-352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Corrales-Herrero ◽  
Beatriz Rodríguez-Prado

Purpose Despite the widely recognised importance of lifelong learning, there are mixed results on its causal economic impact. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how economic conditions change the composition of participants in non-formal lifelong learning and whether the business cycle is relevant for the impact of non-formal lifelong learning on employability. Design/methodology/approach Non-linear decomposition techniques and matching estimators based on multidimensional covariates are applied to the Spanish sample of the European Adult Education Survey. The analysis controls for background, human capital and personal traits and draws a distinction between unemployed and employed workers. Findings The results show major differences in the volume and composition of participants before and during the Great Recession. In addition, there is a business cycle dependence of the effectiveness of non-formal lifelong learning that varies with the individual labour market situation. While lifelong learning proves more effective for the unemployed in recessions, for the employed the impact is greater in expansions. Originality/value The paper provides new evidence on the scant results of the moderating effect of the business cycle on the impact of lifelong learning. The analysis is not restricted to training implemented within public programmes, but rather extends to any kind of non-formal lifelong learning undertaken by unemployed and employed workers. In this sense, the analysis provides information about the optimal moment to invest in lifelong learning from both the policymaker and individual as well as firm perspective.


2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henri Nyberg

AbstractIn the empirical finance literature, findings on the risk-return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, I develop a new qualitative response (QR)-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean (GARCH-M) model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime-switching GARCH-M model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. However, consistent with the conditional intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), there is a positive risk-return relationship between volatility and expected return independent of the state of the economy.


Author(s):  
Agnieszka Gehringer ◽  
Thomas Mayer

AbstractThis paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile a transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The Indicator is derived applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, the Business Cycle Indicator grasps the development of the broader economic activity and has several advantages over a business cycle assessment based on quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product.


2013 ◽  
pp. 115-123
Author(s):  
Natalia Kovtun

Fundamental social changes in any society are impossible without the formation of a high level of social activity of the individual in particular and society as a whole. In the context of this important role plays the study of the correlation of will and need as an important precondition of social activity. Actually, it is the will as a creative impulse to action not only the basis of awareness of needs, but also the ascending position of the daily choice of man. On the basis of awareness and focus on the choice of the direction of activity in the individual and public consciousness formed a holistic image of the purpose of the practical transformation of the world of nature and the world of culture. In the act of will, the subject legitimizes and authorizes the subjective desire, which is constituted in this process as objectively directed meta activity.


Author(s):  
Petr Rozmahel ◽  
Nikola Najman

The paper deals with the evaluation of the preparedness of the Czech Republic and other candidate countries to join the Eurozone. The main goal is to asses the level of business cycle similarity in the selected Eurozone member and candidate countries using the Concordance index. Business cycle similarity belongs among the criteria defined within the theory of optimum currency areas. The first order differencing procedure, Hodrick-Prescott filter and Christiano-Fitzgerald band pass filter were used to identify the classical and growth GDP cycles. The results show that the Czech Republic belongs among the states with relatively high level of concordance comparing to the other Eurozone member and candidate countries. Accordingly, the measure of business cycle concordance should not serve as an argument for slowing down of the monetary integration process in the Czech Republic. The resultant concordance measures also give an evidence of relatively low level of the business cycle similari­ty of Slovak economy and the Eurozone, which might imply a possibly higher risk of the asymmetric shock occurrence in Slovakia.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 284-292
Author(s):  
O. A. Belykh ◽  

Introduction. Chemistry is one of the last academic subjects introduced into the educational process, which completes the natural science picture of the world in high school. Although chemistry is one of the least popular subjects chosen for the Unifi ed State Exam, it causes the greatest phobias among students. Since the quality of the subject assimilation in general determines the degree of success in the student’s cognitive activity and professional orientation, the publication aims to consider the efficiency of the educational chemistry content when used in the Telegram messenger. Materials and methods. A pedagogical experiment was conducted using additional educational chemistry content on the Telegram channel “Chemistry – elementary”. The research relied on the competence-based and environmental approaches, which contributed to the individual success of the child in the simulated educational space. Research results. The fi ndings revealed that the pandemic and the transition to distance education technologies increased the need for didactic materials in chemistry. The use of additional educational chemistry content in Telegram messenger showed a positive effect on the quality of knowledge about chemistry. During the experiment, academic performance and cognitive activity in the subject ro se. Conclusion. The results obtained made it possible to substantiate a high level of activity in the subject, and overcoming chemophobia. The organization of additional educational content through the Telegram channel in an accessible game form (quiz questions, puzzles) can serve as a factor increasing the effectiveness of the educational resource.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Nabochuk ◽  
◽  
Ernest Ivashkevych ◽  

The article shows that professional creative activity is a kind of dialectic of objective and subjective content, which is realized self-development of the essence of the subject in relations with other people, products and relationships which determine professional creativity of the person. It was proved that multi-vector professional activity of managers of educational institutions was one of the most important system in relations of a man – the world. This multi-vector professional activity has the aim to distinguish self-regulation of the behavior of the specialist in the world; to direct the organization of a comprehensive way of mental adaptation to the surrounding reality as a special type of ordering the inner spiritual life of a man, his/her mental activity and professional creativity as some positive prerequisites for the organization of the spiritual life of our society. We actualized the importance of multi-vector professional activity for the person, which could be defined as a “prospective symbol of a harmonious personal structure”, through which the specialist professionally carried out cultural and multi-cultural synthesis of professional systems, individual objects and characteristics. Based on them, in general, we can conclude that the specifics of multi-vector activities (provided the implementation of its social or semantic components) contains in its structure considerable opportunities for the relationships and formation of social intelligence and qualities of divergent thinking of the subject. We formulated such psychological factors that determine the ability of the leader to professional creativity: - professional training of managers of higher educational institutions, due to the formation of personally and professionally significant experience, the formation of their creative abilities and possibilities of the individual; at the same time these creative abilities and possibilities will be directed on the achievement of valuable, axiologically significant results not only in a professional paradigm, but also in all spheres of vital activity of the person; - a high level of the development of general and social intelligence of the manager, which involves the implementation of creative actions by the individual at the level of meta-intellectual activity, which is where the true creative activity takes place, which leads to the explication of the creative achievements of the person. Thanks to this, the fourth level of the intelligence is in that fact that a person is able to establish interactions not only with various objects and other people, but also with the world as a whole, and thus is expanding the boundaries of his/her intellect and it begins a dialogue with a creative beginning of the world; - a low level of personal anxiety, which, in turn, will contribute to the formation of axiological creative potential of the individual as a frame, which is a precautionary factor of value disorientation of the leader, leveling his/her creative, viable changes in values, which, in turn, can lead to moral nihilism, professional burnout or to a state of professional degradation of the person; - the actualization of components of divergent thinking of the person which are formed in a case of managers of educational institutions with a high level of professional creativity, such as: the productivity of administrative activity, a high level of the formation of homospatial thinking, the ability to solve creative problems (mental tasks), a great speed of thinking, the ability to form a planetary thinking, flexibility of thinking, originality of thinking, the development of thinking, radial thinking, the formation of lateral thinking.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (39) ◽  
pp. 98-112
Author(s):  
Teresa Grabińska

There are briefly presented two trends in security sciences developed in the last 10 years: the issues of security culture and the issues of personal safety. Both approaches to security designate methods of threefold insight into the state of security and ways to improve it for an individual and a group. The subject of the discussion will be a comparative analysis of these two approaches to securitology. The research hypothesis is that the approach focused on personal safety emphasizes the importance of the cultural tradition of an individual or group, while the approach focused on the culture of security raises the importance of appropriate shaping of the security structure. This correspondence clearly refers to the determinants of personal safety. The discussed topic is very important for the development of theoretical securitology, especially in connection with the increasingly topical issues of the so-called multiculturalism in a globalizing world. Determinants of personal safety make it possible to study (also in an empirical way) of the individual and group feelings of security. In this way, the combination of the security culture and the presented concept of personal safety opens the way to the humanization of securitology.


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